Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- This game environment shapes up to be one of the more exciting games on the slate (and potentially on the season).
- Texans WR Tank Dell (ribs) is reportedly likely to miss Week 4.
- The Jaguars lead the league in man coverage rate at a ridiculous 61.4%, 13.5% higher than the second-place Broncos.
- C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins have absolutely destroyed man coverage over the previous season-plus.
- Somewhat more quietly, Christian Kirk appears primed to erupt in this spot (more on this below).
- Jaguars TE Evan Engram missed practice again on Wednesday and appears headed for another absence with a hamstring injury sustained in pregame warmups in Week 2.
- Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce missed practice Wednesday and each appears likely to be headed for another missed game in Week 4, setting the stage for another week of Cam Akers as the lead back.
How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville has to try to win instead of being so damn reactive. Honestly, that’s one of their primary dysfunctions through three weeks. Yes, Trevor Lawrence has not looked good, routinely missing receivers in all areas of the field, but his head coach and offensive play-caller needs to do this man some favors. In the post-game press conference after the team’s 0-3 start, Doug Pederson insisted that things had to change. While many thought he was alluding to a potential quarterback change, it’s much more likely that he intends to alter the focus of the offense after Lawrence has the second-deepest average intended air yards (10.5, behind only Anthony Richardson), low 52.8% completion rate (fourth worst in the league), and ridiculous 9.0% drop rate (third worst in the league, not his fault).
Against the inside-out, zone-heavy Texans defense under head coach DeMeco Ryans, I look for the Jaguars to transition to a more fluid pass offense predicated on shorter-area throws so they refrain from getting behind the sticks so often. Continuing that point, the Jaguars have one of the higher first-down rush rates in the league, which is contributing to the frequency at which they face long down-and-distance situations behind an offensive line that is struggling to generate yards before contact. These thoughts all fall under the assumption of rational coaching, which may or may not come to fruition here, introducing a rather wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to how Jacksonville will try to win this game.
On the ground, Tank Bigsby has been the far more efficient back compared to Travis Etienne, amassing six forced missed tackles and 4.21 yards after contact per attempt on 14 carries, compared to the five forced missed tackles and 2.61 yards after contact of Etienne. But beyond that, the Jaguars absolutely must stop being so predictable via situational play-calling tendencies, with a first-down rush rate amongst the league leaders through three weeks. DeMeco Ryans’ defense is always amongst the league leaders in yards allowed per carry due to scheme, and 2024 is no different. The Texans are currently holding opponents to 4.1 yards per carry (10th) after ranking second in 2023 at just 3.6 yards per carry allowed. That leaves this a poor on-paper spot considering the struggles of the Jacksonville offensive line and poor situational play-calling tendencies.
First off, the Texans have filtered the second-fewest targets to the slot in 2024. That said, they have faced the Colts without Josh Downs (primary slot receiver), the Vikings without T.J. Hockenson (primary slot pass catcher), and the Bears without Keenan Allen (primary slot receiver). Their defensive tendencies should actually lead to increased slot target rates based on Ryans’ coverage and alignment tendencies. Over the last two seasons, Ryans’ defenses have ceded the seventh-most yards to the slot (2022 in SF) and the ninth-most yards to the slot (2023 in HOU). So, those early-season slot target rates and production look like noise to me based on the state of the teams they have played. The Texans lead the league in Cover-4/quarters utilization in 2024 at 27.9% and are giving up the most FP/DB from two-high alignments through three weeks (0.94).
Enter Christian Kirk, who ranked second in the league in fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) against Cover-4 (behind only Jaylen Waddle) and 16th in FP/RR against two-high alignments (0.50), of players who’ve run more than 50 routes in each split. Calvin Ridley and Engram led the Jaguars in TPRR against Cover-3 in 2023, and Ridley is longer in town and Engram appears likely to miss another week. Taken in context with where this team has struggled to this point in the season, Pederson’s comments following Week 3, and the historical tendencies of Ryans’ defenses, the table certainly appears to be set for Kirk to see immense opportunity in Week 4.
Another aspect that needs to change for Pederson’s offense is a weird fascination with tertiary pass catchers seeing snaps, with him forcing Parker Washington, Devin Duvernay, and even Tim Jones into particular packages throughout the game, coming at the direct expense of his top three options. Cut the shit, Pederson, simplify the offense on early downs, and quit putting your team in long down-and-distance situations, bruh. There, I did the changes you hinted at after falling to 0-3. You’re welcome.
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