Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- New Orleans had a bye in Week 12 but won back-to-back games heading into its bye week with home wins over the Falcons and Browns.
- The Saints’ offense relies heavily on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill to drive their production and has a good matchup against a Rams defense that just gave up a historic performance to Saquon Barkley.
- To no one’s surprise, Los Angeles has been playing much better offensively with its main players back on the field. The Saints’ defense has struggled tackling in the running game and just gave up nearly 400 yards to the Browns’ passing game.
- The Rams’ secondary is most susceptible to perimeter wide receivers, potentially setting up Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a third consecutive game with a long touchdown.
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Rams are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles where their shortcomings were exposed on both sides of the ball. The Eagles’ pass rush exposed the Rams’ offensive line, sacking Matthew Stafford five times and disrupting a passing game that had been humming along since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned. The defense, which had also been playing well, was run through by the Eagles and gave up nearly 500 yards of offense, including over 300 rushing yards. The Rams’ season is teetering on the brink with a 5-6 record and a game against the Bills waiting for them in Week 14. They need to survive this upcoming stretch to give themselves a shot down the stretch, as they close the year with three games against division opponents over the last four weeks. The NFC West is a tight race right now with all four teams within a game of each other and none seemingly in a spot to run the table, meaning a 10-7 or 9-8 record will likely win the division. This gives the Rams very little margin for error and makes this week’s game in New Orleans close to a “must-win” if they want to stay alive.
The Rams’ passing game has been doing the heavy lifting recently and workhorse RB Kyren Williams has only rushed for 100 yards in a game once this season, after doing so in six of his 12 regular-season appearances in 2023. The last couple of weeks have been interesting, as the Rams were running well early against the Eagles but game script forced them to abandon it as Philadelphia was scoring almost every time it touched the ball en route to 37 points. The Rams rank fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last four games, no surprise with their star receivers back on the field. The Saints play man coverage at a top-10 rate and the Rams’ WRs and scheme are able to consistently expose that approach with creative pre-snap motions and alignments that put defenders in tough situations and give Kupp and Nacua the ability to rack up yards after the catch. Two weeks ago against the Patriots (who play primarily man coverage), Nacua and Kupp combined for 15 receptions for 229 yards and three TDs while Matthew Stafford had his season high in yards per pass attempt and generated his second four-TD game since his dynamic receiving duo returned. The Rams’ offense should be able to get Williams going in this matchup against the league’s 31st-ranked DVOA run defense, which should complement the passing game well and open up the play-action opportunities for the intermediate and deep areas of the field that can sometimes be taken away when the Rams struggle to run the ball. Despite the strong matchup on the ground, the Rams’ offense will rely on the passing game to a high degree, as that is where their bread is buttered at this point. In any event, Los Angeles should be able to move the ball well in this matchup, with multiple paths to chunk plays.
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