GAME Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Both Frank Ragnow and Graham Glasgow have yet to practice, as of Thursday. Both are a large part of how the Detroit offensive line has been so dominant this season.
- Lions RB David Montgomery is done for the season with a knee injury, leaving Jahmyr Gibbs to serve as the unquestioned lead back.
- The Lions now have 19 players missing on the defensive side of the ball alone.
- Bears RB Roschon Johnson has practiced in full in both sessions this week as he works his way through the league’s concussion protocol. It appears likely he returns to action against the Lions.
HOW DETROIT WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Lions have suffered through a ridiculous number of injuries to their defense this season, with 19 players that started the season in the team’s initial depth chart now out of action. They had, up until recently, avoided the same bad fortunes on the offensive side of the ball, until Montgomery was lost for the season and two members of their stellar offensive line got hurt. The left interior of an offensive line ranked second in rush grade and seventh in pass grade is now hurt, with both center Frank Ragnow (knee) and left guard Graham Glasgow (knee) yet to practice this week, as of Thursday. Dan Skipper is listed as a tackle on the team’s depth chart but he’s really more akin to the sixth man on this offensive line, capable of playing all five positions at an above-average level. Those are important aspects of this matchup, as Jared Goff has historically been much better when kept clean as compared to when under pressure, in addition to the clear downgrade for the run game. The truth of the matter is this Lions team has largely been able to win games in any way they’ve chosen this season, with a matchup against the clear run-funnel nature of the Bears likely to guide their hands.
The Lions have yet to play a game this season without both Gibbs and Montgomery, but they did play three games early in the 2023 season without Montgomery. In those three games, Gibbs held snap rates of 60%, 87%, and 70% while handling opportunity counts of 19, 21, and 31. Also remember, those were his third, fifth, and sixth professional games. Montgomery saw snap shares of 71% in the game Gibbs got hurt in Week 4 of 2023 and 75% in the next game without Gibbs in Week 5. The stage certainly appears to be set for Gibbs to see a massive workload considering this team is currently fighting to hold onto their top seed in the NFC (they currently hold tie-breakers over the Vikings for head-to-head record – they play once more this season – and the Eagles for best winning percentage in conference games), despite early-week rumblings from head coach Dan Campbell saying they need to be smart with Gibbs in the absence of Montgomery. The matchup on the ground is borderline elite against a Bears defense allowing the second most yards before contact per attempt (2.52), 4.7 yards per carry (27th), and 22.7 fantasy points per game (fourth most) to opposing backfields this season.
The Lions average just 32.3 pass attempts per game this season and the emergence of Jameson Williams has largely made consistent volume hard to come by, but every now and then Amon-Ra St. Brown will remind us how elite he really is. St. Brown has now put up 40 or more DK points twice this season after his eruption against the Bills, with one instance coming in a blowout win where Goff attempted just 29 passes and the other coming in that shootout in Week 15 against the Bills where Goff threw the football 59 times. Goff also hit for 37.58 DK points or more both times St. Brown broke the slate. Those two games also serve as the only two games in which Goff threw more than three touchdowns this season. All of that is meant to reinforce that this team can put pressure on opposing defenses in so many different ways and always has “break the slate upside” in their passing game, regardless of matchup or expected game environment. The emergence of Williams has mostly taken away from Sam LaPorta, with the second-year tight end going over six targets just twice all season, both of which have occurred in the last two games. The offense has functioned via elevated 12-personnel rates after moving on from fullback Jason Cabinda this offseason, with Brock Wright typically seeing 50-60% of the offensive snaps in neutral-to-positive game environments, leaving WR3 Tim Patrick in the 50-80% snap rate range, dependent on game environment.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.