XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 18 finishes up with a must-win game for the Steelers and Ravens. Whoever wins takes the division and is in the playoffs; whoever loses misses the playoffs and goes home. The Ravens are 3.5-point road favorites in a 40.5 total game, so Vegas expects a fairly close and low-scoring game. The Ravens get back Lamar Jackson, and their defense has been playing much better of late, while the Steelers are still missing DK Metcalf. Pittsburgh has been playing pretty well this season and has exceeded at least my modest expectations, but this feels like a really tough spot for them.
PITTSBURGH
We’ll start with the Steelers, who, without Metcalf, are going to have to lean hard on their 2-headed backfield of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Warren played an exceptionally small role last week with just 32% of the snaps – his second lowest total of the season – and 12 carries with no targets. Gainwell wasn’t much better with just 11 opportunities, though 4 of them were targets, and he played the most snaps he’s ever played in a game with Warren active. The game script was weird, with the Steelers attempting 39 passes (second most of the season for Aaron Rodgers), so that led to Gainwell’s surge as he’s the primary receiving back. This backfield has a lot of game script sensitivity. Warren’s role is primarily on the ground, but with a season-high of just 18 carries, it’s tough for him to find a ceiling unless he gets some explosive runs and/or finds the end zone. At a similar price point in a game script that is more likely to favor his role, I prefer Gainwell. Most projections do too, so this isn’t a sneaky play, but I think he’s a stronger option and don’t mind playing into the ownership at running back.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, the wide receivers who played the most snaps last week were Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling – two players who weren’t even on the team a few weeks ago. Metcalf is hurt. Austin was hurt last week but should return this week. Roman Wilson played just 9 offensive snaps (though at least he was active last week!). This wide receiver room is probably the worst in the NFL. Out of 39 dropbacks last week, Thielen saw 5 targets, MVS saw 9 (and caught 3), Scotty Miller saw 7, and Wilson didn’t get one. MVS has the most upside here – he’s not a good player, really, but he’s played with Rodgers for years, and we know how Rodgers likes “his guys,” and he does tend to get deep targets and has a lot of per-target upside. He’s also just $3,200. He’ll be widely owned and is a volatile player, but the projection is robust given the extremely cheap price. Thielen is “fine” at his price point; he doesn’t need a ton, but he has little yardage upside, so he needs to either rack up PPR points and/or find a touchdown. Miller is most likely the one to see his role disappear with Austin’s return, so I wouldn’t play them together. Austin may end up playing the WR1 role, and at $3,800, he’s going to project similarly to MVS. Both are sub-$4k, and both are going to project as great value options. One interesting way to play them would be to pair them together, as I expect they will both be highly owned but likely not together, given the plethora of other cheap options.
At tight end, Darnell Washington was put on IR this week, which narrows down the workload split at the position and leaves Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith to benefit. Most projection services have Freiermuth as the winner here (a few around the industry have Freiermuth as the highest projected pass catcher on the Steelers). We know he’s talented, and it’s not like the wide receiver room is packed with talent. I think Jonnu is really interesting at what should be much lower ownership. He’s still going to be on the field a ton, but he’s projecting under all of Freiermuth, Austin, and MVS. I think they’re all pretty similar plays, though, so I’ll lean into the lowest ownership spot. These guys are all likely to be fairly popular as ways for people to jam in the expensive Ravens, Rodgers, and/or Gainwell. When we consider price and ownership, I’d rank them as Jonnu, Freiermuth, Austin, MVS, Thielen, but these guys are all pretty close (and volatile).
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