Kickoff Sunday, Jan 4th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
18.5) at

Bengals (
26)

Over/Under 44.5

Tweet
Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • TEs David Njoku (knee/personal) and Harold Fannin (groin) did not practice Wednesday and appear to be headed for absences.
  • The Bengals appear to be near full strength as they prepare to finish their 2025 season.
  • The Browns really don’t require many words to describe their game plan, which becomes increasingly mundane should Fannin miss.
  • RB Chase Brown (illness) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday to start the week. That’s in the “something to keep an eye on” realm more than the “we’re expecting an absence” realm, as things currently stand.
  • Cleveland DC Jim Schwartz has had Zac Taylor’s number in their meetings over the years.
  • C Ethan Pocic, T’s Jack Conklin and Dawand Jones, and G Wyatt Teller are all on injured reserve for the Browns.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders was named the starter ahead of Week 12. Since that time, the Browns rank 20th in PROE while averaging 29 pass attempts per game. Sanders has accounted for multiple touchdowns in only one of six starts (his four-touchdown outburst against the Titans in Week 14) and has committed eight turnovers in his last four games. This is a team that derives its identity through its defense and offensive line, two areas that have experienced numerous significant injuries this season – part of the reason they have won just four games.

The Browns utilized a three-man rotation at running back last week in the absence of Quinshon Judkins and Jerome Ford, with Raheim Sanders leading the way with a 42% snap rate. Sanders saw 10 opportunities to the 13 of Dylan Sampson, while journeyman veteran Trayveon Williams handled just two opportunities on 12 offensive snaps. I would expect the timeshare to continue into Week 18 as the team finishes up its evaluation mode heading into 2026. It then becomes difficult to expect more than 12-15 opportunities for any one player in this backfield, largely rendering the elite matchup obsolete. The Bengals have allowed the most rush yards (148.9), third most rush yards per attempt (5.2), and most DK points per game to opposing backfields.

Projecting the Cleveland pass offense becomes extremely difficult if Harold Fannin misses this week, considering his stranglehold on opportunities through the air in recent games. There’s simply no telling what is likeliest to happen when you remove a player seeing a target on 29% of his routes, with a 2.09 YPRR and 31.3% first-read target rate. All we know is that Jerry Jeudy is likely to be the only pass-catcher in a near full-time role, with Isaiah Bond, Cedric Tillman, Malachi Corley, Gage Larvadain, Blake Whiteheart, Brenden Bates, and Sal Cannella all likely to mix in via package roles. That’s a poor setup considering the Bengals have been well above average against opposing receivers, and, more specifically, perimeter options. Your guess is as good as mine here, but we’re left with very little certainty or upside from this group against the Bengals. The final note here is that David Njoku or Fannin would be worthy of GPP consideration if either makes it back in time for Sunday, particularly so if the other misses.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Unlock OWS

100% Free Access

No card. no catch