Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Jaguars are relatively healthy heading into their final game of a lost season, obviously outside of the season-ending injuries to quarterback Trevor Lawrence, wide receivers Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, and tight end Evan Engram.
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson still has not practiced, as of Thursday, likely indicating an uphill battle for him to start in Week 18. That would seem to indicate the likelihood we see veteran Joe Flacco under center again.
- Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs were both full participants in each session so far this week.
- I don’t know if this game environment will be overly sneaky, but it does present one of the better opportunities for offensive production to accumulate.
How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
Mac Jones has now started six games for the Jaguars this season. In those games, the team ranks 18th in pass rate over expectation, which is right in line with where they were with Trevor Lawrence this season. The biggest issue for the Jaguars has been an inability to consistently run the football, which has forced their hand into more pass volume than they would otherwise like. Adding to those issues is a defense that has been one of the more up-and-down units in the league this season, with both their overall performances and coverage and alignment tendencies blowing like a leaf in the wind. Jones has still yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game this season, but this is by far his easiest matchup of the season.
I don’t think anyone in the fantasy space foresaw the drastic fall off in production and weekly opportunities for Travis Etienne this season, but he has been vastly outperformed by former bust Tank Bigsby all year. Etienne has seen more than 53% of the team’s offensive snaps in only one of his previous four games, leaving both backs with a likeliest range of outcomes of 12-16 opportunities each. The Colts have largely been victimized by volume against and missed tackles on the ground, putting up a solid 1.77 yards allowed before contact per attempt and 4.3 yards per carry but struggling to 21.6 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields.
Brian Thomas Jr. has 508 receiving yards in the six games started by Mac Jones this season. The next closest player, Parker Washington, has just 164 yards in those six games. Thomas Jr. has accounted for an elite 30.2% target share, 40.2% air yards share, 0.30 targets per route run, 2.63 yards per route run, and a gaudy 39.8% first-read target rate with Jones under center this season, clearly presenting a locked-in target for Jones. The Jags have not seen much Cover-3 with Jones under center, but Thomas Jr. leads the team in all receiving metrics in that split as well. This is very much a “Brian Thomas Jr. and everyone else” expectation for the Jaguars given their current makeup, but he is in a great spot this week.
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