Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Cowboys mutually parted ways with Ezekiel Elliott this week, likely paving the way for Deuce Vaughn to be active on Sunday for the first time since Week 11.
- Six Dallas wide receivers saw meaningful snaps in Week 17, in addition to three tight ends.
- Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has said the team will approach this game with the full intent of clinching the No. 6 seed out of the NFC. But beyond the surface of that statement lies heaps of uncertainty and variance. The truth of the matter is we just don’t know how he will manage his personnel on game day.
How Washington Will Try To Win ::
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has said the team will approach this game with the full intent of clinching the No. 6 seed out of the NFC, which would seem to indicate the starters will play a normal allotment of snaps. The issue with taking that at face value is that there is still a wide range of outcomes within that quote. The Commanders are attempting to hold off the Packers, who play at the same time. They are also playing a Cowboys team that is reportedly going to play Trey Lance at some frequency. We have no clue how the team will handle their starters if they are up 21-0 after the first quarter, up three scores at half, or up multiple scores after their first possession of the second half. The point here is that we really have no idea how these teams are going to handle their personnel in most cases this week, all we can do is place ourselves in the best position to make the most money when we’re right. I saved that discussion for this game because I think this team has a much wider range of outcomes as far as personnel usage goes than the public is likely to assume given they are “playing for something” in Week 18.
I would expect Brian Robinson to start in a lead back role, but this man has been banged up a good bit this season and has played over a modest 54% snap rate only twice in his previous nine appearances. It is reasonable to expect Robinson to be handled with more care than some of the other starters here. I think it’s likely we see both Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols worked in during the first half, with the potential that those two are sharing the load after the break. Austin Ekeler returned to practice this week in a full capacity and appears ready to return from injured reserve due to a concussion, but I don’t think the team wants him on the field more than he needs to be after missing so much time. The matchup looks enticing on paper against a Cowboys defense allowing 2.39 yards before contact per attempt (fourth most), 4.8 yards per carry (fourth most), and 22.1 fantasy points per game (ninth most) to opposing backfields this season, but I question any one of these three back’s paths to meaningful volume here.
A similar discussion can be had with Jayden Daniels. This man has been on an absolute tear of late, scoring 28.64 DK points or more in four of his previous five games, but I don’t know how willing the team is going to be to continue exposing him to the beatings that can come to a mobile quarterback if the game is in hand. Furthermore, a game against the Eagles in the Wild Card round with Daniels is much better than a game against the Rams without Daniels. I also don’t see the need to chase Olamide Zaccheaus’ recent stretch as both of his high-target games recently came with their opponents pushing them, leaving it much more likely his volume slides back into suboptimal territory. The same can be said of Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz. I just don’t have the same level of enthusiasm about this spot, given what we know and the wide range of potential outcomes here, as a lot of the industry currently sees to have. I think it’s likely we see Marcus Mariota at some point, and I think it’s likely Luke McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder, Brycen Tremayne, and K.J. Osborn are more involved than most people assume.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.