Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Seahawks rank first in pass rate over expectation, also leading the league in overall pass volume (41.8 pass attempts per game).
- The Falcons have been at or below pass rate expectation in four of six games this season, with their overall numbers inflated massively by the game environments they found themselves in Week 5 and Week 6 (their shootout win over the Buccaneers and a trouncing of the Panthers on the road).
- The Falcons generally filter production through the air to the short-to-intermediate areas of the field as they force opposing teams to march the field, playing into a potential increase in volume for Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
- There are fewer paths than public perception for this game to turn into an uptempo, high-scoring affair. That said, there are places for volume to accumulate, which is typically the path we take when targeting one-offs from a game with high octane offenses but fewer paths to offensive eruption, as is the case here. More on this exploration below.
- Both teams have a relatively clean injury report through Thursday.
How Seattle Will Try To Win ::
The Seahawks lead the league in pass rate expectation and pass attempts per game (a ridiculous 41.8 pass attempts per game) but find themselves in one of the clearer run-funnel matchups in the league against a Falcons defense allowing just 0.32 fantasy points per dropback from zone, playing zone at an elevated 75.8% frequency (fifth highest in the league). That said, the matchup against a Falcons defense largely struggling to generate pressure, plays into the propensity of this team to live and die by the pass. The Seahawks are generating just 1.44 yards before contact per attempt on the ground while allowing the fourth lowest pressure rate in the league, clearly indicating that their offensive line is much more stout in pass protection than they are in run-blocking metrics. That likely plays into the recent pass-heavy tendencies we’ve seen from this team of late, with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb a proven commodity when it comes to maximizing the talent he has on the field. To me, that makes it unlikely we see the Seahawks suddenly shift to a run-focused offense for the remainder of the season, making it likely we see them finish the 2024 season with the highest pass rate over expectation value in the league. That’s a relative liability against the Falcons, a defense that is built from the top down in an effort to force opponents to the underneath areas of the field. We see that reflected in their coverage tendencies, with a combined 27% Cover-4 and Cover-6 rate. We see high Cover-4 and Cover-6 combinations from other teams that force opponents to drive the field through sustained drives to the underneath areas like the Chiefs (30.9% combined Cover-4 and Cover-6 rate), the Texans (28.5%), Titans (36.6%), Jets (30.6%), and 49ers (30.4%).
Lead back Kenneth Walker is quietly pushing himself toward true workhorse status, doing so through an injury that kept him off the field for two games earlier in the season. He ranks 10th in opportunity share (70.8%), fourth in receptions (21, or 5.3 per game), fifth in routes run (again, while missing two games), fifth in target share (14.5%), and fifth in total touchdowns (five). He has amassed a robust 3.04 yards after contact per attempt and forced a ridiculous 20 missed tackles on 51 carries, good for the highest rate of forced missed tackles per touch in the league, of backs with more than 50 carries this season. But he’s largely had to create those yards on his own behind an offensive line blocking to the sixth fewest yards before contact. The pure rushing matchup against a Falcons defense ceding 2.03 yards before contact per attempt is middling, at best, but the Falcons have been so good against the pass that they present a run-funnel matchup to their opponents. Zach Charbonnet should continue to serve as the change of pace back for an offense utilizing virtually no 21-personnel this season.
The biggest shift in how the Seahawks run their offense this season as compared to years past is the amount of 11-personnel they utilize, which has morphed into an almost 86% frequency during the previous two games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has also leap-frogged Tyler Lockett in the snap and target pecking order, playing 64 more offensive snaps than the veteran while seeing 49 targets (8.2 per game) to the 40 of Lockett (6.7 per game). As discussed above, the Falcons schematically force opponents to sustain drives and march the field against them, with heavy rates of nickel and dime utilization through a top-down approach on defense. This theoretically increases the expected target volume of JSN, who has the shallowest aDOT of the group and a route structure that plays into the opponent the most. JSN leads the league in slot snaps with a robust 80.0% slot snap rate while also leading the league in total routes run due to the passing volume exhibited by the Seattle offense, but he’s going to need elite-level volume to return a GPP-viable score in this spot. That said, this spot does set up well to allow him a path to his third double-digit target game of the season. Because the team utilizes very few 12-personnel snaps of late, tight end Noah Fant has been confined to a sub-elite snap rate over the previous four games, peaking at just 69% in each of the previous two games played, and remains a shaky weekly fantasy bet. Finally, and somehow through elevated pass rates, quarterback Geno Smith has exactly one passing touchdown in all six games played this season, indicating a propensity to ride the ground game once in the red zone to this point in the season.
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