Bills (

21.5) at
Jets (

20)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 comes to an end with the Bills visiting the Jets for a 40.5 total game with the Bills favored by a point, so, basically a pick’em. We get a strength on strength matchup as the Bills offense has been rolling (despite losing their top WR in the offseason), scoring 28.4 points per game so far (3rd in the league) while the Jets are allowing just 15.8 offensive points per game, top 5 in the league. The secondary question is if the Jets can manage to do anything at all on offense, which they’ve struggled to do all year, scoring just 18.6 points per game. To be fair, they’ve faced a lot of really tough defenses – Minnesota, Denver, New England, San Francisco, and Tennessee all rank somewhere between average to really freaking good, but Buffalo is no slouch defensively either. They’re not elite, but they’re a little above average, right around the 49ers/Titans defenses that the Jets struggled with already. We’ll circle back to this in the “how to think about the game script” section later. For now, let’s dive into the players.

New York

On the Jets side, we have to start with Breece Hall, and man oh man, what has happened to you, Breece? The Jets have an offensive line ranked in the top 3rd of the league and yet Breece is running for just 3 yards per carry. So far he’s still kept a strong hold on the running back snap rate, hanging out between 69% – 74% since Week 1, while rookie Braelon Allen has outperformed him significantly on the ground (4.5 YPC) but is still playing behind him, averaging about 8 carries per game. So the question is, has Breece just fallen apart? My guess is no – he’s too young and was too good last year to just be terrible all of a sudden. I think he’s going to get it together and this is a great spot against a Bills team that is dead last in yards per carry allowed to opponents. Breece still has a robust passing game role to continue to bolster his floor and ceiling (note 18.3 or more points in three of five games this year despite performing poorly on the ground). This feels like a turnaround spot. Or, at least I sure hope it is, because I’m going to be way overweight here. Allen is a classic “RB2 in Showdown.” I wish he was just a bit cheaper. Still, in such a great matchup, he could find his way into the optimal lineup via lucking into a touchdown, or a bit of extra rushing work if the Jets go ground heavy as the matchup suggests they should, or catches a few balls, etc. If he gets to 12 points, odds are he’s in winning tournament lineups, and I think he has respectable odds of doing so (plus of course a big ceiling should something happen to Breece). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, oh boy. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t exactly been horrible but he hasn’t exactly been good, either. Much like we wrote about Patrick Mahomes in the last Chiefs Showdown, Rodgers is putting up the lowest QB rating of his career and with just about the worst TD:INT ratio of his career. He’s still a capable quarterback, but he sure hasn’t looked elite since coming to New York. We’re going to see Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard as full-time wide receivers, and then Mike Williams finally appears back to full health, playing 71% of the snaps last week (highest of the season) and relegating WR4 Xavier Gipson to the bench with just 2 snaps played. The Bills are vulnerable to the run but strong against the pass, so it’s likely to be tough sledding for the Jets through the air. Wilson is coming off of an insane 22-target game last week – probably not surprising for an Aaron Rodgers receiver, as we know he tends to lock on to one guy, and it looks like Wilson’s it. Even not counting last week, Wilson was averaging 8.5 targets per game, so the volume’s been solid. I think I have a slight lean towards Breece, based on how I think the Jets are going to play this one, but Wilson (like most alpha WRs) is a solid Showdown option. Lazard just keeps scoring touchdowns with four on the season, and while his volume has bounced up and down (games of 3 and 4 targets, but also 8, 9, and 10), on the whole, he’s performed well for the Jets. He’s a little more expensive than I wish he were for his role as I don’t love playing a guy whose price has been climbing like this (he was $5,800 in Showdown just three weeks ago), but he’s proven himself to be a real part of the offense. Finally, Williams is a guy I’m going to keep going back to – he still has “boom” in the boom/bust profile, and he’s finally back to a full-time player – it feels to me that it’s just a matter of time before he hits, and I’d rather be early than late, so I’ll continue to go overweight on him when I have the opportunity to do so. It doesn’t hurt that he’s priced near the kickers and they’ll probably project better than he does, which should keep his ownership in check. 

At tight end, Tyler Conklin has been the little engine that could – he’s not especially good, but his targets have continued to climb all season and he had a 6/55/0 line last week on 9 of them. His price is still creeping up but $4k is a reasonable value. I’m in on him as a solid value option. That’s basically the Jets pass catching corps – you can take MME shots on TE2 Jeremy Ruckert or hope that Gipson makes a return and plays a few snaps, but you’re drawing pretty thin past the main guys on an offense that isn’t especially effective through the air to begin with.

Buffalo