Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- LB Robert Spillane (ankle) was the only ‘DNP’ for the Patriots on Wednesday.
- The Seahawks did not have a player miss practice on Wednesday. Most notable was the limited session from QB Sam Darnold, who reportedly will be ready for the Super Bowl.
- Patriots QB Drake Maye has attempted 29, 27, and 21 passes in the team’s three playoff wins, a number I would expect to grow significantly against a Seahawks team that ranked second in scoring and seventh in total offense during the regular season.
- Diggs has yet to return a top-tier score in the playoffs, but he continues to see a greater role in the offense than he did in all but two games in the regular season.
- These are the top two offenses in yards per pass attempt. These are also two of the top defenses in suppressing explosives through the air.
- These two defenses combined to allow only 17 total touchdowns to opposing backfields during the regular season (seven for the Seahawks and 10 for the Patriots).
- Seahawks TE Elijah Arroyo was activated from injured reserve ahead of the Conference Championship game but was made a healthy inactive – something to monitor for Showdown rosters this weekend.
How new england Will Try To Win ::
The Patriots trailed for all of 2:30 through their first two postseason games, adding 23:09 to that tally after playing from behind for most of the first half against the Broncos in their Conference Championship win. That game was played in terrible conditions, leading to a field position battle that eventually ended 10-7. Quarterback Drake Maye has now attempted 29, 27, and 21 passes in their three playoff wins, highlighting the team’s clear propensity to rely on their defense in these winner-take-all games to end the season. The Patriots have now beaten the Chargers (eighth in points allowed per game at 19.8 and seventh in yards allowed per game at 290.6), Texans (second in points allowed per game and first in yards allowed per game at 271.9), and Broncos (fourth in points allowed per game at 18.5 and fourth in yards allowed per game at 283.4) in the playoffs, while holding those teams to only 8.67 points per game. They get another top defense in the Seahawks in the season finale, a team that has held opponents to the fewest points per game (17.1) and the seventh fewest yards per game (293.2). The difference with this matchup is that their first three opponents were all struggling offenses (Chargers with their injuries, Texans with a general inability to move the football effectively against top defenses, and the Broncos without their starting quarterback), while the Seahawks ranked second in scoring (29.2 points per game) and seventh in total offense (350.0) in the regular season. I would not be shocked to see the Patriots start this one with their typical run-balanced offensive approach, but also be spring-loaded to alter those tendencies much faster than they otherwise would, considering the opponent and stakes.
As we’ve discussed throughout the postseason, the New England backfield has largely been a function of the team’s opponent, considering the shortcomings of rookie TreVeyon Henderson in pass-blocking acumen. Those tendencies have largely been thrown out the window in the playoffs, with Stevenson playing 62, 63, and 94% of the team’s offensive snaps in their three playoff games while handling 14, 20, and 27 opportunities (10, 14, and three for Henderson). I would place the likeliest scenario against the Seahawks somewhere in the middle of those two samples, most likely to land closer to “Stevenson workhorse” than a “1A-1B” setup, considering the Seahawks generated pressure at the league’s sixth-highest rate in the regular season. The pure rushing matchup is poor on the ground against a Seattle defense holding opposing backfields to the fewest yards per carry (3.8), 93.7 rush yards per game (third), and the third fewest fantasy points per game (19.1) this season. One final note here: the Seahawks tied with the Steelers for the fewest rushing scores allowed this season at five
Last week in this spot, we said “Patriots have refused to move away from a five-man rotation at wide receiver, almost regardless of injuries, matchup, or situation this season. That has held true through their first two postseason games as the absence of Mack Hollins allowed undrafted free agent rookie Efton Chism to remain involved in the offense. Hollins returned to the practice field Thursday after having his practice window opened earlier in the week, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll prove healthy enough to be active come Sunday. Expect Chism to be the odd man out on gameday should he return or remain involved in a complementary role should he miss.” That is exactly how it played out vs Denver, with no pass-catcher in the eight-man rotation playing more than 69% of the team’s offensive snaps (Hunter Henry). The route participation hierarchy during their three playoff games so far goes as follows:
- Stefon Diggs (79.4%)
- Kayshon Boutte (74.5%)
- Hunter Henry (72.5%)
- DeMario Douglas (43.1%)
- Mack Hollins (41.4%)
- Kyle Williams (39.4%)
- Austin Hooper (27.5%)
Also, as we said last week, Boutte, Williams, and Hollins are really perimeter-only players, while Douglas is really a slot-only player, leaving Diggs in a hybrid role all over the formation. That also gives Diggs the best opportunity to finish with a score you could not win without on the Showdown slate, regardless of the fact that he has yet to do so in the playoffs. We’re really just touchdown hunting with any pass-catcher on this team beyond Diggs, Boutte, and Henry. And even then, Henry likely needs to find paint to return a score required on this slate, whereas Boutte can get there on chunk yardage gains.
