Week 7 Matchups


Kickoff Thursday, Oct 21st 8:20pm Eastern

Broncos (
19.25) at

Browns (
20.75)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
17th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
17th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
17th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
24th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
14th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 begins with a snoozefest as the Broncos visit the Browns in a 42.5 total game with Cleveland favored by 3.5. While this doesn’t sound exciting, and it’s likely to be a fairly boring game to watch, we still have DFS contests to win, so let’s get to it.

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Cleveland

On the Cleveland side, we have injuries galore with both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt already ruled out. Baker Mayfield is also questionable, which could just further their reliance on their run game should . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
23) at

Giants (
20)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
20th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
27th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
5th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
27th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
30th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
19th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
11th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
31st DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Giants run a fast-paced, inefficient offense
  • The poor game environment is the biggest obstacle to DFS success 
  • Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson cost $10,800 to stack on DK
  • Chuba Hubbard is underpriced for his role in a strong matchup

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers enter this game a disappointing 3-3 after starting the year in a dominant 3-0 fashion. The rub? The Panthers played the Jets, Saints, and Texans in their first three games. Since their unbeaten beginning, the Panthers have dropped three straight games against better competition losing close contests to the Cowboys/Eagles/Vikings. That lights out Panthers defense that gave up ten points a game to start the year failed to hold any of the Cowboys/Eagles/Vikings to under 21. The Panthers were underrated to begin the year, overrated after their first three games, and they are currently sitting around what their expected outcome should be the rest of the way.

Matt Rhule is in a tough spot sitting at 3-3 after expectations were artificially inflated by the Panthers early season schedule. His best player, Christian McCafferty, hit the IR and is out until at least Week 9. Since the loss of CMC, the Panthers have been struggling to find their identity on offense. They play at an average situational neutral pace (17th) but are willing to speed up when losing (7th place) and slow down when winning (23rd). The Panthers want to run a balanced offense and “see how the game goes” before deciding on their level of aggression. The Giants are weaker against the run (27th in DVOA) than the pass (22nd in DVOA) but the gap isn’t drastic, and I doubt it would influence the Panthers approach anyway. Expect the Panthers to start balanced, before deciding on how they want to attack, based on what is working and the game situation.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 1-5 Giants have been a disappointment against their moderate expectations to start the year. No one had this team as a contender but their roster has enough talent to compete. The Giants coaching staff is certainly hoping for an “injury mulligan,” and while the G-men have seen more than their fair share of the training room, that isn’t the reason they are underperforming their talent level. The Giants are a poorly coached team led by Patriots disciple Joe Judge (all the Patriots coaches are overrated due to results achieved with the greatest QB of all time) and former Jerry Jones lap dog, Jason Garrett. The Giants are playing fast (7th situational neutral pace), they play even faster when they’re losing (3rd pace when trailing), but they are running a lot of inefficient plays. The Panthers are easier to run on (18th in DVOA) than to pass on (7th in DVOA) creating a mini-run funnel. It would make sense for the Giants to probe for weaknesses on the ground but since Jason Garret doesn’t know whether to sneeze or fart most weeks, don’t expect a significant game plan adjustment. Coming off two blowout losses, expect the G-Men to try and throw the ball early in hopes of showing their annoyed home crowd that they still have fight left in them, rather than attempting to attack the strategic weakness of their opponent.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 43 point total which reflects the lackluster scoring environment expected. The Panthers opened as 2.5 favorites before being quickly bet through the three. The half-point line move is significant because of the number, and if the line continues to three and a half, that would be an indicator that the Panthers are going to control this game. The most likely game flow is that both teams attempt to stay balanced while waiting for their opponent to force a reaction. The game should stay close, with the Panthers pulling away in the second half and forcing more aggression from the Giants.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 13/22 games with Garrett as OC
  • NYG RB/WR starters to leave inj early since W3: Shep & Slayton // Barkley & Golladay // Toney & Board
  • NYG’s original WR starters haven’t played full game together since W2

Daniel Jones:

  • In 22 Garrett games, Jones/McCoy/Glennon have scored 1 TD or less in 15 of them
  • QB TDs vs CAR: 2 // 1 // 1 // 4 // 2 // 3
  • QB pass yds vs CAR: 258 // 111 // 168 // 188 // 198 // 373
  • CAR has the 6th most sacks (16) & 19th most forced TOs (6)
  • After only throwing 1 Hail Mary INT through 5 weeks, Jones turned the ball over four times vs LAR

NYG WRs:

  • Every WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR has needed 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen)
  • Shepard’s 3 full games in 2021: 7:113:1 // 9:94 // 10:76
  • CAR has allowed the 3rd fewest completed air yds
  • NYG WRs aDOT: Shep (8.1) // Slayton (14.4) // Golladay (13.4)

Devontae Booker:

  • Booker without Saquon: 16:42:1, 3:16:1 // 12:41, 4:28 (Penny scored TD)
  • CAR ranks 18th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Top RB yds vs CAR: Ty Johnson (26) // Kamara (30) // Ingram (20) // Zeke (143), Pollard (67) // Sanders (51) // Dalvin (143)

Sam Darnold:

  • Darnold has nearly as many 300-yd pass games with CAR (3) in six games as he did in three seasons with NYJ (4)
  • QB yds:TDs vs NYG: 264:2 // 336:2 // 243:2 // 226:1 // 302:3 // 251:4
  • NYG rank 22nd in defensive pass DVOA
  • Darnold DK pts (def pass DVOA rk): 20.1 // 22.9 // 28.3 // 36.5 // 9.1 // 17.1
  • 207:1:1

CAR WRs:

  • In Robby Anderson’s best game this year (W1), he caught just one deep pass for TD
  • He has not topped 50 yds since, and his highest DK score is 10.1 DK pts on a 3 rec for 11 yds, TD game last week
  • He somehow only trails Moore in targets 29 to 32 over the last three weeks (9.7 tg/g)
  • Moore has between 5-8 rec in every game
  • Moore has just one game below 70 total yds: 94 // 79 // 125 // 119 // 38 // 79
  • Top WRs vs NYG: Jeudy (6:72) // McLaurin (11:107:1) // Ridley (8:61) // Lamb (4:84:1), Cooper (3:60:1) // Kupp (9:130:2), Woods (2:31:1)
  • NYG have been killed by TEs, but Thomas is still running barely over 50% routes last 3

Chuba Hubbard:

  • RB rush att vs NYG: 25 // 17 // 19 // 33 // 35 // 30
  • Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16
  • RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120) // Zeke (112), Pollard (103) // Henderson (107)
  • Hubbard has 70+ yds in 3 of last 4: 79 // 71 // 134 // 65
  • NYG have allowed 4 RB rush TDs & 2 RB rec TDs, with Zeke & Hendy combining for 4 of the 6
  • Hubbard scored his first TD last week (1st att inside-5; CMC had 2)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
17.75) at

Patriots (
24.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
10th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
16th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
8th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
25th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game could mirror their prior Week 2 affair
  • The Jets offense is expected to struggle
  • The Patriots passing volume will likely be limited by game flow
  • The best DFS play from this game is a defense

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 1-4 Jets haven’t been good this year but they have shown signs of life in the last two weeks. After starting an uncompetitive 0-4, they stunned the Titans in overtime, before losing a one-score game to the Falcons. The Jets play slow when it’s close (25th situational neutral pace), and slow when they’re losing (18th pace when trailing), but speed up when they’re winning (2nd fastest pace when leading). Ya. That doesn’t make much sense. The Jets are still searching for their identity as Zach Wilson figures out the NFL.

The Jets have figured one thing out though, they are a lot more competitive when they reel in Zach Wilson. This strategy makes a lot of sense since Wilson has yet to complete an NFL game without throwing the ball to the other team. It’s hard to win games when your QB has thrown nine interceptions in five games. Expect the Jets to try and play “hide the INT machine QB” until the scoreboard forces them out of their game plan.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Bill Belichick’s Patriots come into their second game with the confused Jets at a disappointing 2-4. They’ve absorbed losses against the Dolphins/Saints/Bucs/Cowboys while only narrowly defeating the Texans. Their lone confident victory came against these Jets in Week 2. If the Patriots play the Jets every week, it’ll be like Brady never left! The Patriots did lose three of those four games by one score, dropping last week’s game in heartbreaking fashion in overtime. The Patriots aren’t far away from being 5-1 but I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way in their locker room right now.  

Belichick is an adaptable coach that is willing to relentlessly attack the relative weakness of a defense. The Jets can be attacked through the air (23rd in DVOA) or on the ground (17th in DVOA), which will allow the Patriots to proceed in whichever manner they see fit. Belichick has shown enough trust in Mac Jones to come out passing. There is a good chance they mirror their Week 2 game plan, leaning pass-heavy early, before using their running game to salt the game away in the second half.  

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Patriots have been installed as a confident seven-point favorite in a home game they can’t afford to lose. The most likely game flow is highly likely in this one as Belichick must win to keep any playoffs hopes alive. There isn’t a reason to believe the Pats will deviate from their Week 2 game plan. This game is likely to play out with the Patriots showing aggression early, before riding their running game to an easy victory in the second half.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • Rematch of W2 when NE won 25-6 in NY
  • Last matchup was 42 pt total (31 final) and this game is set at 42.5 total

Mac Jones:

  • Jones passing: 281:1 // 186:0 // 270:1:3 // 275:2:1 // 231:1:1 // 229:2:1
  • In NE’s two wins, Jones has thrown just 30 pass att in each
  • In NE’s three losses, Jones has thrown 39, 51, 40, 21 pass att
  • NE led for the majority of the 21 att game vs DAL
  • NE is a 7-pt favorite
  • Jones 186:0 game vs NYJ was his lowest output of the season, with 30 Jones pass att to 23 RB rush att
  • NYJ rank 23rd in def pass DVOA
  • Matt Ryan is the only QB over 300 yds vs NYJ

NE WRs:

  • NE’s highest scoring WR by game: Agholor (18.2) // Meyers (7.8) // Bourne (21.6) // Meyers (16.8) // Meyers (9.6) // Bourne (14.5)
  • Meyers has still yet to score a TD in his career after one was nullified in W6
  • Only three WRs have 60+ yds vs NYJ: Moore (80) // Patrick (96) // Rogers (63)
  • Only 2 WRs have scored vs NYJ this year

NE TEs:

  • The Jets had been solid vs TEs through four weeks vs Arnold, Henry, Fant, Firkser, but got eviscerated by ATL’s TEs in London: Pitts (9:119:1), Hurst (4:40:1), Smith (3:30)
  • Route share on Jones dropbacks: Jonnu (48%, 42%, 27%, 38%, 19%, 43%) // Henry (58%, 76%, 68%, 64%, 65%, 83%)
  • Targets: Jonnu (5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2) // Henry (3, 4, 6, 5, 8, 2)
  • aDOT: Jonnu (3.9) // Henry (8.5)
  • RZ targets: Jonnu (7) // Henry (3); Henry has TD in three straight games
  • Henry has 30+ yds in 5/6 games (31, 42, 36, 32, 75, 25)
  • Jets have allowed the 9th highest yds/att to TEs

NE RBs:

  • Harris with 15+ rush att in career: 17:100 // 16:102:1 // 22:121 // 16:80 // 23:100 // 16:62:1 // 18:101:1
  • RBs with 15+ rush att vs NYJ: CMC (21:98) // Harris (16:62:1) // Gordon (18:62:1) // Henry (33:157:1)
  • Jets have allowed 6 RB rush TDs in five games
  • Backfield rec yds vs NYJ: CAR (93) // NE (47) // DEN (54) // TEN (94) // ATL (68)
  • White’s tg count (7 & 6) hasn’t been fully matched by the likes of Bolden or Stevenson

Zach Wilson:

  • Wilson was intercepted four times in the first matchup
  • Wilson has 5 TDs to 9 INT on season
  • Wilson has been sacked 18 times in 5 games

Corey Davis:

  • Top WR score by week: Davis (26.7) // Berrios (14.3) // Davis (9.1 // 24.2 // 8.5)
  • Davis finished with 2 rec for 8 yds vs NE in W2
  • Eight WRs have 60+ yds vs NE: Parker (81), Waddle (61:1) // Berrios (73) // Evans (75), Brown (63) // Moore (109:1), Conley (84:1) // Lamb (149:2)

NYJ RBs:

  • Kamara’s 20.8 DK pts are the most allowed to a RB by NE this year
  • Even with TDs in back to back weeks & just over 10 rush att/g over last four, Carter hasn’t topped 15 DK pts on the season

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
31) at

Titans (
27)

Over/Under 58.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
15th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
16th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
22nd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Titans Run D
18th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
7th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
13th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
10th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
GAME OVERVIEW::
BY Hilow >>>
  • The field might struggle to attack this game optimally – as in, it isn’t as simple as “each team should smash so let’s build all our rosters around this spot.”
  • Thinking through the potential game scripts and scenarios gives us a significant edge for the highest profile game of the week (which will be done in the DFS Interpretation section below).
  • That said, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Derrick Henry are all set up well in this game, with ancillary pass-catchers from each side viable in rosters that cater to various potential game environments.
HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The 3-3 Kansas City Chiefs go on the road to face a potential playoff opponent in a game that could decide the playoff home team. To say this game has more meaning than your typical Week 7 matchup is an understatement. In their first game without second-year starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs passed the ball at a 64% situation-neutral clip, right in line with their 62% marks over the course of the first six weeks. Darel Williams filled in as the primary ball-carrier and saw a massive 25 running back opportunities en route to almost 24 fantasy points. BUT (yup, here’s the “but”) he did so on the backs of two short touchdown plunges (three and one-yard scores) and a putrid 3.0 yards per carry. Don’t be fooled into thinking he will somehow evolve into the primary focus of this offense. That honor rests squarely on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes. Since the rush-to-pass ratios have remained fairly consistent for the Chiefs this season, the biggest influence on expected volume for each lands on the total number of offensive plays the Chiefs run from scrimmage. And since they boast the most efficient offense in the league, capable of scoring fast and sustaining drives, the most impactful metric to their total offensive plays run from scrimmage in games has been how quickly their opponents can score. This is an important idea when considering the various ways this game can play out (which we will get into more below!).

As alluded to earlier, we should expect Darel Williams to act as the primary ball-carrier, with Jerick McKinnon spelling him in a change of pace and third-down role. McKinnon has seen snap rates of 31% and 28% the previous two weeks (the week CEH got hurt and the week after he was placed on IR), which is a solid projection for Week 7. In those two games, he saw opportunity totals of three and seven. There is nothing in the metrics that hint at an expanded role here, leaving him out of consideration for fantasy purposes. Darel Williams’ volume should then be considered a direct result of the number of offensive plays run from scrimmage by the Chiefs as their week-to-week rush-pass rates have remained fairly sticky.

Similar to the expected volume of the running backs, Patrick Mahomes’ pass volume is highly reliant on the total number of offensive plays the Chiefs are able to run (more so than game environment). Since that volume relies so heavily on how quickly opponents are able to score on the Chiefs (because the Chiefs rank dead last in the NFL in defensive drive metrics like yards allowed per drive and drive success rate allowed), paired with the fact that the Titans offense is so heavily built around the run, and their running back is capable of breaking off chunk gains on every touch, and we start to see a clearer picture regarding how the optimal way to approach this game. Tyreek Hill has seen 12 or more targets in three consecutive weeks, while Travis Kelce has seen double-digit looks in three of the last four contests. These two represent 50.5% of the team’s target market share to date, highlighting just how involved they are on a weekly basis. Behind Hill and Kelce, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman each typically play between 60% and 80% of the offensive snaps and should be considered high ceiling, low floor plays. Byron Pringle has not seen a substantial boost to snap rate this season as many thought he might and should be reserved for deep MME play. 

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN::

5.2. That’s the yards allowed per rush from the Kansas City defense this season. Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Eagles, Bills, and the Football Team. Those have been their opponents. Those teams rank second, 24th, 15th, 21st, eighth, and 18th in adjusted line yards on offense this year, indicating that the poor yards allowed per rush from the Kansas City defense are not simply a factor of teams they have played to this point. Tennessee holds the league’s sixth highest situation-neutral rush rate through six weeks, a year after finishing third highest. The Titans have a running back named Derrick Henry who leads the league in rushing, after leading the league each of the last two years. It is no secret how the Titans will attempt to win this game, the only question becomes how deep into it they’ll be able to stick to that plan of attack considering their own shortcomings on defense (27th in DVOA against the pass does not bode well against the Cheifs).

The matchup on the ground yields an elite 4.66 net-adjusted line yards metric but the Titans are likely to be without perennial All-Pro Tackle Taylor Lewan after he was carted off the field in Week 6 with a scary-looking head injury that was ultimately deemed a concussion. We all know the drill by now – Derrick Henry, by the numbers, gets better as the game progresses. This should primarily be attributed to the beating he inflicts on opposing defenses over four grueling quarters of play. I would say the injury to Anthony Hitchens is a big deal for the Chiefs, but that simply isn’t the case. Hitchens is one of PFF’s worst-graded linebackers in the league this season.

Although not typically thought of as the main cog of the offense, the pass game could see a boost to volume depending on game script. Furthering the intrigue are the multitude of injuries to the primary pass-catchers. AJ Brown has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) with the stomach troubles associated with food poisoning while Julio Jones returned to a limited practice on Thursday following a missed practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on the statuses of both heading into the weekend, as an absence from either would both narrow down the expected target distribution as well as vault Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Marcus Johnson into prominent roles. Behind those four, expect Chester Rogers to operate as wide receiver depth assuming Josh Reynolds, who was inactive via coaching decision on Monday Night Football this past week, is once again held out. Rogers has also yet to practice this week but his absence would be nearly inconsequential with Marcus Johnson now healthy. The 18% tight end target rate falls just below league average but has led to a season-high of only five targets to any one of Anthony Firkser, Geoff Swaim, and MyCole Pruitt.  

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW::

There is a wide range of potential outcomes with respect to likeliest game flow here, leading to a situation that is best attacked by singling out various game scenarios on different rosters. For the primary fantasy players, those potential game environments don’t alter the low end of their respective range of outcomes (floor), instead extending or contracting the theoretical ceiling. As in, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce can each be counted on for a couple of the highest floors on the week, but their ceiling greatly depends on the potential for expanded volume (a shootout or playing from behind). Similarly, Derrick Henry and his heavy volume are nearly locked in but his ceiling depends greatly on touchdowns, which would have a large effect on the expected game environment. Secondary members of each team should be reserved for game stacks as each typically does not see the requisite volume in order to provide solid price-considered returns.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • The two games in the Mahomes-Tanny era (both in 2019 season) have produced scores of 32-35 & 35-24
  • 2021 KC totals: 62 // 71 // 54 // 72 // 58 // 44
  • 2021 TEN totals: 51 // 63 // 41 // 51 // 56
  • Yds/play allowed: KC (32nd), TEN (27th)

Patrick Mahomes:

  • TEN ranks 27th in def pass DVOA
  • 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1) // Lawrence (273:1:1) // Allen ()
  • Mahomes yds/TDs: 337:3 // 343:3 // 260:3 // 278:5 // 272:2 // 397:2
  • Mahomes has been intercepted 8 times in 6 weeks
  • TEN has just 3 INT in 6 weeks
  • QB rushing vs TEN: Kyler (5:20:1) // Lawrence (7:28:1)
  • Mahomes rush yds: 18, TD // 3 // 45 // 26 // 61 // 31
  • Mahomes DK scores when KC implied for 29+ pts on the road: 2018 (30.8, 43.9, 33) // 2019 (35.6, 21) // 2020 (20.6, 25.5, 35.3, 24.6) // 2021 (32.7, 28)

Tyreek Hill:

  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021 by 4 pts/g more than next closest
  • Seven WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8)
  • Tyreek Hill has finished above 60 rec yds in 40 of his 53 full games since 2018
  • The final game scores of Hill’s 25+ pt scores since 2020: (35-9), (33-31), (35-31), (27-24), (33-27), (38-24), (33-29), (42-30)
  • Hill targets: 15 // 4 // 7 // 12 // 13 // 12
  • Hill in the two Mahomes vs TEN games: 11:157:1 // 5:67:2
  • TEN has allowed the 8th highest explosive pass rate to WRs
  • Since 2019 (nearly 2.5 seasons), the quartet of Watkins, Hardman, Robinson, Pringle has produced just five scores of 20+ DK pts, and the two biggest came during the absence of Hill
  • One of those scores came in the second TEN game with Watkins putting up 7:114:1 on 10 tg
  • Hardman & Watkins each caught a 60+ yd TD vs TEN in 2019 matchups
  • Hardman has 76 & 62 yds in the last two weeks

Travis Kelce:

  • Kelce targets this year: 7, 8, 11, 6, 10, 11
  • The only TEs with more than 3 tg vs TEN are Ryan Griffin (1:8) & Dan Arnold (6:66)
  • Kelce in the two Mahomes vs TEN games: 7:75:1 // 3:30
  • Jody Fortson, one of KC’s backup TEs, scored 2 TDs already this year but has now been lost for the season
  • Kelce has 5 RZ touches on season (Hill with 9, Hardman with 5)
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill sub-15 DK pts: 22.5 // 30.6 // 22.8 // 26.9 // 20.4 // 17.7
  • Since 2020: DK pts when Hill 25+ DK pts: 27.9 // 28.9 // 29.9 // 16.2 // 30.6 // 25.6 // 6.3
  • Since 2020: Kelce has produced 70+ yds in 18/24 games, including 11 100yd games and 18 TDs

Darrel Williams:

  • Williams led McKinnon in rush att 26 to 1 through five weeks, and got 21 att to McKinnon’s 3 in his first start
  • Williams leads McKinnon in targets 14 to 7 through six weeks
  • Rush att without CEH in 2020: Williams (6, 10, 13) // Bell (11, 7, 2)
  • Targets without CEH in 2020: Williams (2, 6, 4) // Bell (3, 3, 2)
  • Williams basically absorbed most of 2020 Bell’s usage for himself, with 25 touches to McKinnon’s 7
  • That was a KC RB’s first game with 20+ carries since W6 vs BUF in 2020
  • TEN ranks 21st in defensive rush DVOA
  • RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43), Moss (39)
  • Damien Williams in the Mahomes vs TEN games:: (19:77, 5:32) // (17:45:1, 5:44)
  • TEN has allowed 5 RB rush TDs, but no RB rec TDs through six games

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Since TEN’s 13 pt clunker vs ARI in W1, TEN has scored 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 offensive points
  • KC has allowed the 4th most pts (though just one less than 2nd & 3rd)
  • KC ranks 31st in defensive pass DVOA even after a strong W6
  • QB rushing production vs KC: Lamar (16:107:2) // Hurts (8:47) // Allen (11:59:1)
  • Tanny rushing: 2:17:1 // 4:27 // 5:56 // 3:9 // 3:21 // 2:3:1
  • Tanny vs 2019 KC: 181:2, 3:37 // 209:2, 3:11
  • 2021 QB pass yds vs KC: 321 // 239 // 281 // 387 // 315 // 182
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 4 of his 23 starts since 2020

TEN WRs:

  • TEN WRs have underwhelmed to start 2021, with each scoring over 15 DK pts just once so far (Brown: 16.1 // Julio: 21.8)
  • Top WRs vs KC: Landry (5:71, rush TD) // Brown (6:113:1) // Williams (7:122:2), Allen (8:50:1) // Smith (7:122) // Sanders (3:54:2), Diggs (2:69) // McLaurin (4:28)
  • Tgs when both Brown & Julio played full: Brown (8, 9, 9) // Julio (6, 8, 5)
  • 218 underdog WRs averaging 8+ tg since 2014 in 50+ pt total games are averaging 17.68 points
  • Some notable WR scores that have fit this criteria in 2021 (DK pts): Cooper (41.9) // Hopkins (26.3) // Jefferson (18.5, 29.8, 20.4) // Ridley (19.3) // Mike Will (36.2) // Kupp (30.6) // Adams (34.2) // Moore (34.9) // Metcalf (16.5, 26.8) // McLaurin (6.8)

TEN TEs:

  • TEN TEs in KC matchups: Jonnu (4:30, 3:38) // Firkser (3:36:1, 1:22:1)
  • KC ranks 31st in both defensive success rate & yds/att allowed to TEs
  • TEs vs KC: CLE (7:120) // BAL (6:66) // LAC (5:57) // PHI (11:116:1) // BUF (4:118:1) // WAS (5:65:1)
  • Season-highs for TEN TEs: Firkser (3:33) // Pruitt (3:43)

Derrick Henry:

  • Henry has already rushed for 10 TDs (three games of 3)
  • KC has allowed 5 RB rush TDs through six weeks
  • KC ranks 32nd in defensive rush DVOA
  • Of KC’s 799 rush yds allowed (6th most), just 518 of them have come from RBs (15th fewest)
  • Henry’s rush yds: 58 // 182 // 113 // 157 // 130 // 143
  • A RB has topped 50 rec yds vs KC in four straight: Ekeler (52:1) // Gainwell (58) // Moss (55) // McKissic (65)
  • Henry had 3+ rec in each of first three weeks, but in the last three has totaled just 4 rec for 33 yds
  • Henry vs Mahomes KC: 23:188:2, 2:3 // 19:69:1, 2:-8
  • Henry as a home dog in 2020: 19.3 // 14.9 // 8.1 DK pts
  • Henry as a home dog in 2021: 38.6 DK pts (vs BUF)
  • At least one TEN player scored 20+ DK pts in 14/16 games in 2020
  • No TEN player scored 20 in W1, but Henry has scored 20+ in every game since (50.7, 22.4, 28.7, 34, 38.6)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
19.5) at

Packers (
28)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Washington Run D
11th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
12th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
30th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
8th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
28th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
12th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
13th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • The Packers have been quietly taking care of business since an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Saints and now sit at 5-1 with a two game lead in their division.
  • Washington continues to battle injuries among their skill players and a disappointing defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt.
  • These teams operate on different ends of the spectrum in terms of pace of play. Ironically, the stronger team (Green Bay) plays at a slower pace while the inferior team (Washington) plays faster. Green Bay is more likely to drag the game’s total snaps and pace down than Washington is to force a faster pace.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has had a brutal schedule to date with spots against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills already in their rearview. A trip to Lambeau will provide another big obstacle for a team that entered the season with high expectations and has so far disappointed. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has come crashing back to earth recently. After some good performances early in his time as the starter, he has combined to average a measly 5.4 yards per pass attempt against the Saints and Chiefs the last two weeks. The current injury state of Washington’s skill position players is certainly not helping his cause, but this is something we will often see with backup level quarterbacks as their opponents get more film on them and data on their tendencies. With matchups on tap against the Packers, Broncos, and Buccaneers, Washington should emerge from this stretch with a clear view on exactly where Heinicke falls in their long-term plans.

Looking at how Washington will attack this game, they are likely to have a balanced attack that the specifics of will depend on the health of their playmakers. Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, who are clearly their best skill players, are both tending to difficult lower-body injuries and missed practice on Wednesday after being very ineffective in Week 6. The bright spot for Washington’s offense has been their offensive line, which is the 3rd graded unit by PFF in pass blocking and also ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. It will be critical for Washington to continue their offensive line success and protect Heinicke to prevent him from making mistakes that would let the game get away from them. Gibson may miss this game and, if he is active, will likely not be his usual explosive self as he deals with a stress fracture in his shin that prevented him from finishing the game against the Chiefs. As a result, Washington will likely not be able to lean on the run in this game to the level they would like to. Expect a mix of some short-area passing with some intermediate shots being taken on early downs to try and give Heinicke more manageable situations on 2nd and 3rd down. Due to the injuries they are dealing with, Washington is likely to need to do some creative things to sustain drives. They will also have to be focused on successful drives early in this game as possessions will be at a premium against a slow-paced and efficient Green Bay team.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

After an embarrassing start to the season against the Saints, the Packers offense has been averaging 28.2 points per game over the last five weeks. Now they get a matchup against a Washington defense that has given up 29 or more points in five straight games. Frankly, the Packers 28.75 implied team total feels very low in this spot. The one part of the Washington defense that still has some bite is their talented defensive line that has the #2 rated pass rush by PFF this season. Unfortunately, Washington also has PFF’s 31st-rated coverage unit, and the Packers’ offensive line is rated 9th in pass blocking grades, which should allow them to give Aaron Rodgers enough time to pick on them whenever he feels like it.

Rodgers and the Packers will do what they do here — play sound, balanced football, and bleed the clock. In matchups like this, Rodgers is likely to do a lot of damage on limited volume against Washington’s 28th rated DVOA pass defense. The Packers have shown no interest in moving away from their balanced to run-heavy approach, and a matchup against a struggling Football Team certainly won’t force their hand. Rodgers will definitely take his shots against this secondary, but he will be so efficient when he throws that it may limit the passing offense’s volume. This is a team on a mission who will play at their typical methodical pace and try to get out of here in one piece once they feel the game is in hand. Despite the presence of their MVP quarterback, the Packers play at the 6th slowest situation-neutral pace and also throw the ball at below the league average rate in neutral situations.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Packers should control this game from the start. The defending MVP against a pass defense that is currently dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed is a recipe for trouble. With the Packers likely to have success from the start and Washington having so many question marks on their offense, it is likely that this game is controlled by the Packers — which means it will be slow-paced. Shorter drives that end in punts for Washington mean the Packers have the ball more and can milk the clock on long, sustained drives that allow them to gradually build a substantial lead. While Washington has played at a relatively fast pace (6th in situation-neutral pace of play), their likely lack of efficiency will keep them from pushing the pace in this spot.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Vegas total of 49 is the 4th highest in Week 7
  • GB’s -9.5 spread and 29.25 implied team total both rank 4th
  • OVER has hit in 4/6 WAS games
  • UNDER has hit in 4/6 GB games
  • WAS ranks 7th in adjusted seconds per play (28.6), per numberFire
  • GB ranks 32nd (32.7)

Taylor Heinicke

  • 34th ranked QB in PFF passing grade
  • Out of seven starts, Heinicke has scored 20+ DK points four times
  • Two of the four were 25+ (28.84 vs. TB in the Wild Card round last year and 27.9 @ ATL)
  • Heinicke’s DK salary for Week 7 against GB has dropped to its lowest point on the year, $5200
  • GB ranks 15th in DK points allowed to QBs (19.8)
  • Three out six opposing QBs have scored 20+ while two out of three have scored less than 15 pts

WAS Passing Attack

  • WAS uses 11 personnel at a 20% higher rate than league average (79% vs. 59%)
  • Snap share: Terry McLaurin 94.9% // Logan Thomas 74.9% (only 5 snaps in Week 4 then gone) // Adam Humphries 62.7% // Ricky Seals-Jones 58.6% (full time role since Logan’s injury) // Dyami Brown 57.3%
  • Target share: McLaurin 27.9% // Humphries 10.8% // Dyami 9.8% // RSJ 9.8%
  • McLaurin is the only WR on the team to score 12+ DK points in a game (30.7 vs. NYG in Week 2 & 33.3 @ ATL in Week 4)
  • McLaurin ranks 5th in total targets, 13th in receiving yards, 4th in air yards, 5th in target share, 4th in air yards market share, and 3rd in WOPR among all WRs
  • GB ranks 8th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.2)
  • WAS TEs Logan & RSJ have averaged 11.92 DK ppg in 5 complete games
  • RSJ’s log since assuming the starting role: 9.1 // 15.8
  • GB ranks 17th against TEs (13.7)

WAS RBs

  • Snap share: Antonio Gibson 55.8% // JD McKissic 44.5%
  • Target share: McKissic 13.7% // Gibson 7.8%
  • Touches per game: Gibson 16.8 // McKissic 7.7
  • Gibson’s DK log: 12.8 // 9.3 // 17.4 // 15.5 // 21.2 // 5.4
  • McKissic’s DK log: 0.8 // 20.3 // 5.8 // 16.9 // 1.7 // 19
  • Gibson’s DK salary started at $5,900 in Week 1, climbed all the way up to $6,500 in Week 6, and has fallen back to $5,900 in Week 7
  • GB ranks 14th against RBs (23.9)

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ranks 16th in passing grade from PFF
  • Rodgers’s DK salary started at $6,800 in Week 1, fell to a low of $6,300 by Week 3, then climbed to a season high this week at $7,500
  • DK log: 3.32 // 26.8 // 19.04 // 24.12 // 23.76 // 23.7
  • In 89 career games with a Vegas total of 50 or less, Rodgers averages 21.55 DK ppg
  • WAS ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (29.5)

GB Passing Attack

  • GB uses 11 personnel at the league average rate (59%) and 12 personnel at 33% (league average is 22%)
  • Snap share: Davante Adams 85.3% // Allen Lazard 75% // Robert Tonyan 61.3% // Marcedes Lewis 47.4% // Randall Cobb 36.6%
  • Target share: Adams 34.2% // Tonyan 10.4% // Lazard 7.8% // Cobb 7.3%
  • The 34.2% team target share for Adams leads all players in the league
  • Among WRs, Adams ranks 1st in receiving yards, 2nd in air yards, 5th in air yards market share, and 1st in WOPR
  • His two TDs are tied with players like Byron Pringle, Cedrick Wilson, and Greg Ward
  • With elite usage, positive TD regression is coming
  • In 12 games with a GB spread of -9.5 or  higher, Adams averages 15.17 ppg
  • Adams’s DK log: 10.6 // 23.1 // 34.2 // 12.4 // 40.6 // 12.9
  • Outside of Adams, only Cobb has topped 15 DK pts
  • Cobb’s 23.9 pt effort against PIT came after MVS was lost for the season
  • WAS ranks 31st against WRs in DK ppg allowed (48.8)
  • Tonyan’s DK salary started at $4,200
  • He managed 14.2 DK pts vs. DET but has otherwise not scored more than 3 in a game
  • His salary is now $3,500
  • WAS ranks 16th against TEs (13)

GB RBs

  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 63.9% // AJ Dillon 33.7%
  • Target share: Jones 11.9% // Dillon 5.2%
  • Touches per game: Jones 17.3% // Dillon 9.7
  • Jones has 6 TDs to Dillon’s 1
  • Dillon’s touches have decreased since a high of 16 in Week 4
  • His DK salary went up since a low of $3,800 in Week 3 to a high of $4,900 last week, but has gone down this week to $4,600
  • Dillon’s DK log: 3.6 // 3.6 // 4.6 // 10.7 // 17.9 // 5.9
  • Jones has had 17-18 touches each of the past three weeks
  • Jones’s DK log: 4.2 // 41.5 // 17.6 // 11.9 // 17.9 // 21
  • Out of 8 games with a GB spread of -9.5 or higher, Jones averages 24.65 ppg
  • WAS ranks 19th against RBs (26.4)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
24.5) at

Dolphins (
23)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
24th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
30th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
23rd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
21st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Miami leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 69%, while Atlanta ranks eighth in the league at 64%.
  • Miami ranks third in the league in first-half situation-neutral pace of play while Atlanta ranks eighth.
  • These teams combine to allow 130.2 plays per game, while the offenses combine for 128.9 plays per game.
  • We’re liable to see 135+ offensive plays run from scrimmage here, which gives this game environment sneaky fantasy appeal.
  • Both teams rank 29th or worse in defensive drive success rate allowed, 27th or worse in points allowed per drive, and 20th or worse in turnovers forced while each offense ranks in the middle of the pack in turnovers per drive.
  • These offenses combine for under 44 rush attempts per game.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

On the surface, Atlanta appears to be operating a heavy two-tight end offense (league-low 28% 11-personnel alignments), but we know that “tight end” Kyle Pitts has been used heavily out of the slot and out wide (79% of his offensive snaps have come from either the slot or split out wide). We also know that “running back” Cordarrelle Patterson has played only 135 total offensive snaps and that 51 of those have come with him either split out wide or out of the slot. Basically, the Falcons have had to turn mud into water with the offensive personnel available on their active roster, not to mention the absence of Calvin Ridley for personal reasons in Week 5 and the extended absence of wide receiver Russell Gage. On the season, Atlanta ranks eighth in both situation-neutral pace of play and situation-neutral pass rate, with quarterback Matt Ryan attempting 35 or more passes in every game this year (with three games above 42).

The backfield has also been a Frankenstein effort, piecemealing the combination of Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson into a backfield in the loosest sense of the word. Mike Davis has surprisingly scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season but has yet to demonstrate any level of ceiling. He has opportunity counts on the season of 21, 16, 16, 15, and 18, with 24 targets to his name. Patterson has played far fewer snaps but has seen at least six targets in all but one game. The two have combined for seven total touchdowns on the year, five of which have come through the air.

We shouldn’t expect half of the team’s receiving touchdowns to continue to come through the running backs, which screams positive regression for both Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, and, to a lesser extent, Russell Gage. We should expect the Falcons to score here and it is likeliest for those scores to come through the air, leaving both Pitts and Ridley in an excellent position to improve upon their modest to-date production. That likelihood gains further traction should Byron Jones and/or Xavien Howard miss their second consecutive game this week. Head coach Brian Flores historically utilizes heavy blitz rates on second and third downs, with high levels of cover-0, man coverages on later downs. This tilts the expected success rates through the air towards an already low intended air yards average, meaning the Falcons are likeliest to achieve success over the areas of the field they are already attacking heavily.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins have made good on their obvious plans to focus on the passing game after their offseason moves, ranking first in the NFL in situation-neutral pass rate over the first six weeks. They have played at the league’s third-fastest first-half situation-neutral pace of play and the fifth-fastest overall pace of play to start the year. The overall offensive production has been heavily influenced by injuries up to this point, with all of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and Preston Williams, and cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard all missing time. The injury information we currently have out of Dolphins camp is rather limited considering the team only held a walkthrough on Wednesday. Any absences from the aforementioned pieces are likely to either narrow the expected target distribution or increase the likelihood of pass production against in the case of the cornerbacks (who each missed last week with multiple issues).

The Dolphins backfield is a veritable mess. All of Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Malcolm Brown typically see enough snaps to sap the life from all parties, which came to its most ugly head last week when no back saw more than 36% of the available offensive snaps. There also seems to be no rhyme or reason for the changing dynamics of the backfield. What we know is this: Gaskin has seen exactly five or six targets in four of six games, Ahmed has seen exactly two or three targets in five of six games, and Malcolm Brown has four total targets on the season. Gaskin has seen double-digit rushing attempts in only one game this year, while Ahmed and Brown typically combine for 10-12 rush attempts of their own. The bottom line is matchup almost doesn’t matter here, but the matchup yields a mediocre 4.12 net-adjusted line yards metric, held down by Miami’s 29th-ranked marks.

The primary appeal (and primary means for attack) from this offense comes through the air. On the season, Tua holds a moderate 8.0 intended air yards per pass attempt and 6.2 completed air yards per completion, which is highly influenced by a small sample size and injuries to his pass-catchers. Furthering the current unknowns are injuries to Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, and Preston Williams, the latter two of which could return this week. The big picture, though, is that Miami leads the league in 12-personnel alignments at 46%, with Mike Gesicki in a route on a robust 187 total pass attempts this season. Jaylen Waddle should see 85-95% of the offensive snaps regardless of the statuses of Parker and Williams, while Albert Wilson is likely limited to 11-personnel alignments (only 45% on the season). 

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game yields an interesting dynamic in that each defense struggles to prevent sustained drives, generate turnovers, and suppress points while each offense chooses to operate with pace and elevated pass rates. Basically, we have everything we need in our quest for expected fantasy goodness. Furthermore, based on the offensive tendencies of each team, actual game flow means less to the ultimate outcome for each team’s respective plans of attack than it would in a standard game. The likeliest game flow has this game playing close throughout, with each team tilting their offensive game plans towards an aerial attack. This presents an interesting situation where the chances of a shootout are much higher than the field is likely to give credit for, while the floors of each team’s primary play-makers are higher than a standard game as well due to the defensive deficiencies of each team. I expect the range of outcomes of primary play-makers from this game to not match overall ownership, presenting us with solid leverage opportunities. 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • 5th highest Vegas total on the week
  • ATL ranks 3rd in adjusted seconds per play (28.0)
  • MIA ranks 19th (30.0)
  • MIA ranks 2nd in adjusted pass rate (67%)
  • ATL ranks 13th (60.6%)
  • ATL chose to take their bye after their London game
  • MIA elected not to take their bye after last week’s last second loss to the Jags in London

Matt Ryan

  • Ryan ranks 11th in PFF passing grade
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts in 3 out of 5 games
  • DK log: 7.36 // 22.3 // 16.62 // 29.02 // 24.58
  • MIA ranks 23rd against QBs (23)

ATL Passing Attack

  • ATL uses 11 personnel at a league low 28% (average is 59%)
  • 12 personnel usage ranks 2nd (37%)
  • Snap share: Kyle Pitts 74.2% // Calvin Ridley 70.3% // Olamide Zaccheaus 64.2% // Hayden Hurst 52.5% // Tajae Sharpe 33.9%
  • Target share: Ridley 20.3% // Pitts 17.4% // Zaccheaus 8.2% // Hurst 7.2% // Sharpe 4.8%
  • Even with a bye and a missed game, Ridley ranks 23rd in air yards among all WRs
  • His target share ranks 10th, air yard market share ranks 2nd, and WOPR ranks 4th
  • Ridley’s salary has fallen from $7,900 in Week 1 down to $6,600 this week
  • The average DK salary for the six WRs on the main slate that rank ahead of Ridley in target share is $7,650
  • Ridley’s DK log: 10.1 // 19.3 // 14.1 // 15
  • Zaccheaus has yet to exceed 12.5 DK pts this year
  • MIA ranks 29th in DK ppg to WRs (45.1)
  • Pitts ranks 6th in rec yds, 6th in air yards, 9th in target share, 2nd in air yard market share, and 6th in WOPR among all TEs
  • His salary started at $4,400 in Week 1 but is up to $5,900 this week
  • DK log: 7.1 // 12.3 // 5.5 // 9 // 29.9
  • Hurst also had a season high day against the NYJ in London (13 DK pts)
  • But he’s scored less than 7 in all other games
  • MIA ranks 23rd against TEs (16.4)

ATL RBs

  • Snap share: Mike Davis 66.1% // Cordarrelle Patterson 39.7%
  • Target share: Patterson 15% // Davis 11.6%
  • Touches per game: Davis 16 // Patterson 13.2
  • Davis’s salary has stayed between $5,100-5,500 all season
  • Davis ranks 5th in goal line share and RBOPR
  • His DK log: 10.2 // 13.3 // 11 // 10.6 // 13.1
  • Patterson’s salary in Week 1 was $3,700
  • His Week 7 salary is $6,300
  • DK log: 8.7 // 23.9 // 16.2 // 34.6 // 18.4
  • MIA ranks 29th against RBs (31.6)

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Tua ranks 24th in PFF passing grade
  • In two full games, he’s scored 17.18 and 25.36 DK pts
  • QBs against ATL are averaging 22.5 DK ppg (22nd)
  • DK log for opposing QBs: Jalen Hurts 28.76 // Tom Brady 30.64 // Daniel Jones 16.54 // Taylor Heinicke 27.9 // Zach Wilson 8.98

MIA Passing Attack

  • MIA utilizes 11 and 12 personnel at virtually even rates (45% to 46%)
  • Their 46% 12 personnel usage is more than double league average, and by far the most in the league
  • Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 80.6% // Mike Gesicki 64.6% // DeVante Parker 54.5% // Durham Smythe 54% // Mack Hollins 33.9% // Albert Wilson 31.8%
  • Target share: Waddle 21.1% // Gesicki 17.7% // Parker 13.5%
  • Waddle had 13 targets in London, the second time he’s that mark this season
  • His salary has risen $2k since his Week 1 debut at $3,600
  • DK log: 16.1 // 11.6 // 17.8 // 6.3 // 5.3 // 29
  • Parker has missed the past two weeks but may return this week
  • Parker ranks 10th in air yard market share and 19th in WOPR from his Weeks 1-4 production
  • DK log: 12.1 // 9.2 // 8.2 // 17.7
  • ATL ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (40.9)
  • Gesicki’s salary has risen $700 since Week 1
  • Despite a goose egg in Week 1, he ranks 4th in rec yds, 4th in air yards, 8th in target share, 4th in air yard market share, and 5th in WOPR among all TEs
  • DK log: 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7 // 8.3 // 22.5
  • ATL ranks 14th against TEs (10.9)

MIA RBs

  • Snap share: Myles Gaskin 49.4% // Malcolm Brown 32%
  • Target share: Gaskin 13.5% // Salvon Ahmed 5.5%
  • Touches per game: Gaskin 10.5 // Brown 5.3 // Ahmed 4.7
  • Gaskin’s 31.9 DK pts @ TB in Week 5 were the only instance of a MIA RB scoring 13+ so far this year
  • ATL ranks 21st against RBs (26.7)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
19.75) at

Ravens (
26.25)

Over/Under 46.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
6th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
19th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
6th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
27th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
24th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This is probably the biggest game of the Zac Taylor era in Cincinnati, with the winner of this game taking control of the AFC North.
  • These teams are a combined 9-3 with all three of the losses coming in overtime. We should expect a highly competitive game.
  • Both teams are strong defensively and rank bottom-10 in pass rate, setting up a classic AFC North slugfest.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals continued their run-heavy tendencies of 2021 last week against the Lions, running the ball more often than they passed for the third time in six games. When the season started, it was reasonable to expect the Bengals to pass at the high rate they had last year, considering they added another explosive weapon in Ja’Marr Chase. However, the Bengals switched course and are likely to continue their winning recipe for the foreseeable future. A franchise that has struggled for a long time and been the brunt of many jokes, the Bengals are a legitimate team this year behind a top-10 defense and a balanced offense that can be explosive when it needs to be. The Bengals are 4-2 but could very easily be 6-0 as the Vikings needed a 53-yard field goal as time expired in regulation to force overtime, and the Bengals missed multiple field goals that would have won the game against the Packers.

Baltimore is 3rd in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt while ranking 26th in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed. In theory, this creates a classic pass funnel situation, but it is unlikely the Bengals will stray far from the balanced approach that has led them to their most promising start in years. Also, the Ravens are coming off a game where they shut down a previously red-hot Chargers passing offense. Cincinnati will continue to stay balanced as long as this game is competitive, with their defense likely being strong enough to keep them close or in the lead throughout this game. When they do pass, they are likely to take some shots to their star wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase (Chase is 3rd in the league among players with at least 20 targets with an average depth of target of 17.6 yards). Baltimore has given up some big plays down the field this season, and the Bengals will certainly try to find opportunities to exploit a perceived weakness, even if they aren’t throwing at a heavy clip.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore has made a lot of noise this year with their improved passing game and the continued development of Lamar Jackson, specifically showing the ability to bring his team back in negative game scripts — something he had previously failed to do. However, the Ravens remain true to their core as a run-first team despite the continued injuries to their running back stable. Through six weeks, Baltimore ranks 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and is going to lean that way whenever they can. Their ability to continue having success regardless of who is at running back relies on two things:

  • Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability puts a ton of stress on the defense
  • Baltimore’s offensive line is ranked 4th by PFF in run blocking

What this means is that the Ravens’ line is doing a great job opening up holes, and linebackers are forced to hold and check that Lamar doesn’t have the ball before filling those holes. That’s a tough combination for any defensive unit to deal with.

When Baltimore throws, they will take some shots on occasion. However, given the importance of this game and the likely low-scoring, competitive nature it will have, it is unlikely the Ravens will be forcing things through the air. If things aren’t clearly open for him, Lamar is more likely to tuck it and run than he is to try to make something happen against a good pass defense — Cincinnati is 8th in pass defense DVOA and has PFF’s 7th rated coverage unit. The Bengals are also likely to lean on their Cover-2 and Cover-3 defenses (which they run at a top-10 rate) in this spot, rather than playing much man-to-man and turning their backs to Lamar. In theory, that would serve to limit big plays for the Ravens’ passing game while also keeping Lamar from busting off long runs. In reality, good luck tackling Lamar in the open field. The likely heavy amounts of zone coverage will, however, force the Ravens to attack spots on the field and sit down in open windows — which should keep their passing game from having an explosive day, similar to how the Chargers’ defense played them last week.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game sets up as a classic AFC North slugfest. Both teams rank bottom-10 in the league in both situation-neutral pass rate and situational-neutral pace of play (Cincinnati actually ranks dead last in that category). Both defenses are solid, and both teams have had success this year, making it unlikely that either break from their tendencies here in what amounts to a critical game for the outcome of the AFC North. The Steelers and Browns are both 3-3, but the Browns have been torn apart by injuries, and the Steelers look nothing like a contender as they try to hide what has been their franchise cornerstone for well over a decade in Ben Roethlisberger. If the Ravens can win here, they will have a two-game lead over the Bengals and hold the tie-breaker. A Bengals win would result in a tie between these two teams at the top of the division, with Cincinnati holding the tie-breaker for the time being. Both coaches believe in their philosophies, strategies, and personnel — which means that we will likely just see both teams square up and give their best shot of “being who they are” in this critical contest. Scoring and yards are likely to be at a premium on both sides of the ball here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • 46.5 Vegas total ranks 6th lowest out of 13 games
  • BAL’s -6.5 spread and 26.5 implied total each rank 6th highest
  • CIN & BAL both rank in the bottom half of adjusted seconds per play (23rd with 31.2 & 27th with 31.7, respectively)
  • BAL led their Week 6 opponent, LAC, 38:07 to 21:53 in time of possession

Joe Burrow

  • Burrow is PFF’s 7th ranked QB in passing grade
  • He ranks 17th in DK ppg
  • Burrow has scored 20+ DK pts in 3 out of 6 games this season, all of which came in the last three games: 25.32 // 20.34 // 23.84
  • His DK salary has risen from $5,900 when he scored 25.32 in Week 4 to $6,200 this week
  • BAL ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.5)

CIN Passing Attack

  • CIN uses 11 personnel at a 68% rate and 12 personnel at 21%
  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 85.9% // CJ Uzomah 75.5% // Tyler Boyd 73.9% // Tee Higgins 51.4% // Drew Sample 45.1% // Auden Tate 26.4%
  • Target share: Ja’Marr 23.4% // Boyd 21.7% // Higgins 16% // Uzomah 9.1%
  • Ja’Marr’s DK salary was $4,800 in Week 1
  • By Week 6, it had risen nearly $2k to $6,700
  • In Week 7, it’s dropped to $6,200
  • Ja’Marr ranks 4th in receiving yards, 8th in air yards, 22nd in target share, 3rd in air yard market share, and 8th in WOPR
  • For the main slate, the three players ahead of him in receiving yards have an average DK salary of $8,633; the six players ahead in air yards average to $7,333; the six players ahead in WOPR average to $7,317
  • Ja’Marr’s DK log: 23.9 // 13.4 // 22.5 // 13.7 // 30.9 // 13.7
  • Higgins stepped right back into the WR2 role for CIN the past two weeks, earning 7 and 6 targets to Boyd’s 5 and 3
  • Boyd’s best week came with Higgins absent
  • Higgins DK log last two weeks: 10.2 // 7.4
  • Boyd’s DK log last two weeks: 6.4 // 1.7
  • Boyd’s salary dropped $700 from Week 6 to 7
  • Higgins’s salary dropped $400
  • BAL ranks 7th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34)
  • Uzomah’s DK log: 5.5 // 2.4 // 0 // 26.5 // 3.6 // 10.5
  • His 26.5 pts came when he hit a season high of 6 targets
  • BAL ranks 32nd against TEs (20.7)

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon leads the RB room with a 64.9% snap share, 9.1% target share, and 20.7 touches per game
  • He ranks 4th in rush share, 6th in goal line share, and 3rd in RBOPR
  • Excluding a hobbled Week 5, Mixon’s DK log: 28 // 8.1 // 10.4 // 13.7 // 26.3
  • BAL ranks 24th against RBs (28.3)

Lamar Jackson

  • Lamar ranks 8th in PFF passing grade
  • His 26.6 DK ppg ranks 4th
  • His 13.78 DK pts in the 34-6 blowout last week were his lowest output by a full TD’s worth of production
  • DK log: 20 // 37.26 // 20.28 // 22.44 // 45.88 // 13.78
  • Lamar ranks 1st in rushes, 3rd in passing air yards, 6th in yardage, and 2nd in ADoT
  • CIN ranks 7th against QBs (17.9)
  • The list of QBs they’ve faced: Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Andy Dalton 8.74 // Ben Roethlisberger 18.22 // Trevor Lawrence 17.76 // Aaron Rodgers 23.76 // Jared Goff 17.38

BAL Passing Attack

  • BAL uses 11 personnel at 37% (league average is 59%), 12 personnel at 4% (22%), 21 personnel at 27% (7%), and 22 personnel at 19% (3%)
  • Snap share: Marquise Brown 72.7% // Mark Andrews 71.2% // Rashod Bateman 65.2% (just 1 week) // Sammy Watkins 58.8% // Devin Duvernay 57.6%
  • Target share: Andrews 22.7% // Marquise 22.2% // Sammy 16.5% // Duvernay 9.3%
  • Week 6 target counts: Andrews 6 // Bateman 6 // Marquise 5 // Duvernay 3
  • Marquise’s Week 7 salary is $700 higher than his Week 1 salary
  • He ranks 7th in rec yds and 13th in air yards
  • His DK log: 19.4 // 26.3 // 8.3 // 19.1 // 36.5 // 7.5
  • Per PFF, Bateman’s profile is best comparable to Keenan Allen
  • Duvernay’s highest DK total was 10.2 @ DET
  • Sammy’s health is up in the air but his highest DK total was 13.6 @ LV
  • CIN ranks 14th against WRs (39.4)
  • Andrews ranks 2nd in target share among all TEs
  • He leads all TEs in rec yds, 2nd in air yards, 3rd in air yard market share, and 2nd in WOPR
  • DK log: 5 // 10.7 // 18.9 // 11.7 // 44.7 // 17.8
  • CIN ranks 6th against TEs (8.8)
  • List of TEs they’ve faced: Tyler Conklin 8.1 // Cole Kmet 1 // Pat Freiermuth 11.2 // Dan Arnold 4.9 // Jacob Hollister 1.5 // Robert Tonyan 1.8 // TJ Hockenson 15.4

BAL RBs

  • Week 6 snap count: Latavius Murray 26 // Le’Veon Bell 22 // Devonta Freeman 21
  • Week 6 targets: Freeman 2 // Latavius 2
  • Week 6 touches: Latavius 11 // Freeman 9 // Bell 8
  • All three had a rushing TD last week against LAC
  • CIN ranks 18th against RBs (26.2)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 4:05pm Eastern

Lions (
17) at

Rams (
33.5)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
9th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
28th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
7th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
21st DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
10th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
32nd DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • One of four lopsided expected game environments on the week, but there just might be some hidden (maybe not-so-hidden) fantasy goodness here based on Detroit’s fast-paced and pass-heavy second half offense.
  • Each coaching staff should be expected to keep the foot on the gas throughout this one, regardless of game flow.
  • Players from this game are unlikely to go completely overlooked, but the large spread and nuanced (maybe even muted) aggression from each team lends itself to an intriguing setup, one that is likely to go under-owned relative to fantasy expectation.
  • The Lions lead the league in second-half pass rate, a boon to the game environment overall.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

The best way to describe what head coach Dan Campbell is trying to instill in Detroit is “smash-mouth football.” He wants to out-effort every team on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, he was dealt a seven-deuce offsuit when it comes to the talent on his roster. Effort can only go so far in this league. A little bit of bar trivia to highlight just how bad this team has been this season: the Lions are one of only two teams who have yet to play with a lead of seven or more points through six weeks (the other one being the Washington Football Team, which surprised me as well). With the ball, Detroit opens games at a snail’s pace (28th-ranked situation neutral pace of play) but open up their offense when they need to (second fastest second half pace of play and eighth fastest pace of play when trailing by seven or more points – good news for hunting for upside in game environments). Their situation-neutral pass rate in the first half of games is a 29th-ranked 54%, which jumps all the way up to the most pass-heavy offense in the second half of games (75%). This, again, is excellent news when we’re looking for game environments to attack, as it gives us a good environment for their opposition to pick up extra plays run from scrimmage later in games. This also tells me that Dan Campbell and his Lions are not likely to roll over at any point in the season and will fight tooth and nail until the final whistle blows.

The Lions average just 22.8 rush attempts per game due primarily to the extreme negative game scripts they have found themselves in thus far, which is unlikely to change here. Running back D’Andre Swift has gone from lead back status to borderline elite workload over the last three weeks, averaging 75% of the offensive snaps over that time. The biggest value Swift brings to the table each week is his work through the air, having seen 42 (!!!) targets on the season and a minimum of five in each game played. Jamaal Williams saw his lowest opportunity total of the season last week at five but had seen between 10 and 18 running back opportunities in every game up to that point. The matchup on the ground yields a modest 4.085 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the Lions just lost standout offensive linemen Frank Ragnow for the season after he underwent surgery on his toe.

Through the air, the Lions lead the league in running back target rate at 27% and remain above average in tight end target rate at 21%, leaving a low 52% of the available targets to the wide receivers. With wide receiver Tyrell Williams yet to be activated from the IR with a concussion suffered in Week 1 and second-year wide receiver Quintez Cephus likely to miss the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone, the Lions are likely to be forced to start Kalif Raymond, Khadarel Hodge, and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown at the wide receiver position, who each played heavy snaps in their Week 6 contest. Tight end TJ Hockenson missed practice on Wednesday, which was likely due to rep management with his ailing knee. The primary cogs of this offense continue to be the running backs and Hockenson, which also represent the Lions best chance at moving the ball against the outside-in funnel Rams defense. 

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams play at the second-fastest situation-neutral pace of play and boast the fifth-best drive success rate in the league, leading to an average of only 61.67 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game. The low play totals should primarily be attributed to efficiency as this offense has scored at least 26 points in every game save one (a Week 4 dismantling at the hands of the Cardinals, in which they scored 20 points). The additions of quarterback Matthew Stafford and deep threat wide receiver DeSean Jackson have opened up this offense into an efficient juggernaut, giving Sean McVay the pieces to be able to hit every area of the field and keep opposing defenses off balance. The Rams below average 56% situation-neutral pass rate over the first six weeks indicates a propensity to remain balanced in all but extremely negative game scripts, which is unlikely here.

Running back Darrell Henderson has seen a minimum of 66% of the offensive snaps in every healthy game this season, with three of those games landing above 82% (82/90/94%). That robust snap rate has led to an average of 19.4 running back opportunities per game over his five healthy games. With a touchdown in all but one game, Henderson brings a solid floor and ceiling combination to the table in his best matchup of the season. Said matchup yields a healthy 4.655 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Lions defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (12 total touchdowns allowed to opposing backfields). Behind Henderson, expect recent addition Sony Michel to mix in for a modest snap rate and eight to 10 opportunities.

The Rams pass game runs primarily through Cooper Kupp, who leads the league in team target market share at 34.0%. Both primary wide receivers (Kupp and Robert Woods) share a primarily intermediate role (9.0 and 9.1 aDOT, respectively), leaving the downfield work in the hands of Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson, who typically split available snaps at a 60/30 clip. The three to six targets we can typically expect from each deep threat, paired with the same three to six target expectation for tight end Tyler Higbee, highlights the pass game dominance of Cooper Kupp in this offense, who has seen double-digit targets in every game this season (the only player in the league to see double-digit targets in every game played). The matchup with the Lions creates a situation where the Rams can basically win anywhere on the field, as the Lions have allowed a below-average 67.88% completion rate and disgusting 13.5 average yards per completion (worst in the league). 

Likeliest Game flow ::

It is likeliest we see the Rams control this game from the jump, forcing each team into a familiar game script (the 5-1 Rams playing with an established lead and the Lions forced into second-half aggression as they try and claw their way back into the game). When we then consider Detroit’s willingness to open things up in the second half of games, we’re left with a likeliest game environment that is ripe for potential fantasy goodness. Both of these coaching staffs should be expected to keep their feet on the gas regardless of game script, which further boosts the game environment overall. If ever there were a close to two-touchdown spread game that got me excited to attack from both sides, this would be it. 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • Stafford-Goff revenge-game szn
  • Stafford’s Rams have scored 34 // 27 // 34 // 20 // 26 // 38
  • Goff’s Lions have scored under 20 points in every game except the first (which they were down 38-10 at one point)
  • The only spread bigger than the Rams by 15 here is the Cardinals by 17 vs HOU

Matthew Stafford:

  • Stafford is averaging 306.3 yds, 2.7 TD, 0.7 INT in his first six games with McVay
  • DET is allowing the 12th most pass yds despite facing the fewest pass att
  • DET is giving up the highest yds/att (9.8)
  • DET is allowing the most fantasy points per pass att in 2021 (per @TJHernandez)
  • Stafford’s only games as 10+ pt favorite since 2014: 27.2 // 7.9 // 22.7 DK pts
  • Of 54 QBs favored by 14+ pts since 2014, only 12 have scored 25+ DK pts
  • 3 of 23 QBs since 2014 on teams favored by 16+ pts have scored 25+ DK pts
  • 2 of those 3 were Mahomes & Lamar vs the Gase-Jets in 2020 that ranked 8th in def rush DVOA but 28th in def pass DVOA
  • DET ranks 25th in def pass DVOA & 26th in def rush DVOA

LAR WRs:

  • DET has allowed a 100-yd WR in 4 of 6 games, and the two without included multiple deep Hollywood drops and Chase finishing with 97 yds
  • The 4 WRs: Deebo (9:189:1) // Adams (8:121) // Mooney (5:125) // Jefferson (7:124)
  • Kupp has finished with 90+ yds in 5/6 games: 108 // 163 // 96 // 64 // 92 // 130
  • Kupp has between 10-13 tg in every game
  • Since 2014, 6 WRs averaging 10+ tg have been 14+ pt favorites (DK pts): D Thomas (22.5) // Edelman (16.5) // A Brown (43.9) // Juju (14.7) // M Thomas (9.1) // Diggs (21.4)
  • Kupp already has 26+ DK pts in each of two blowouts vs CHI & NYG
  • Tg, TD inside the 10: Kupp (7, 4) // Woods (3, 1) // Van (1, 0)
  • Woods only has two games of more than 6 targets
  • Woods has just one game of 15+ DK pts (the only game he outproduced Kupp)

Darrell Henderson:

  • Henderson has 5 rushes inside-5 to Michel’s 1
  • DET has allowed 6 RB rush TDs & 6 RB rec TDs
  • Top RB rush yds vs DET: Mitchell (19:104:1) // Jones (17:67:1) // Murray (7:28) // Monty (23:106:2) // Mattison (25:113) // Mixon (18:94)
  • Notable RB rec yds vs DET: Jones (6:48:3) // Mattison (7:40:1) // Mixon (5:59:1), Evans (3:49:1)
  • Henderson rush yds: 70:1 // 53:1 // 89 // 82:1 // 78:1
  • Henderson rec yds: 17 // 29 // 27 // 17 // 29:1
  • Henderson’s rush att in the 3 Rams Wins he’s played in full: 16 // 17 // 21

Jared Goff:

  • Goff has 7 TOs already
  • Rams have forced the 5th most TOs (10)
  • Goff already has three games under 10 DK pts
  • 34 QBs vs LAR since Ramsey arrived are averaging just 15.9 DK pts, with the only QBs over just 20 DK pts being Dalton, Lamar, Kyler (x2), Allen, Jimmy, Rodgers, Brady
  • 8/34 QBs vs Ramsey’s Rams have topped 20 DK pts, and only 4/32 over just 24 DK pts (36.3, 36.2, 25.5, 31.7), while 20/34 have finished below 15 DK pts

TJ Hockenson:

  • Targets: 10 // 9 // 2 // 8 // 3 // 11
  • Yards: 97:1 // 66:1 // 10 // 42 // 22 // 74
  • TE yds vs LAR: Kmet (42) // Doyle (64) // Gronk (55) // Williams (66:1) // Dissly (29) // Engram (24)

DET RBs:

  • Rush att: Swift (11, 8, 14, 8, 11, 13) // Williams (9, 7, 12, 14, 13, 4)
  • Each has 3 games leading the team in rush yds, but neither has topped even 70 rush yds
  • LAR ranks 11th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Swift still has total control of the receiving work, with 42 targets to Williams 18
  • Swift has 5+ tg in every game (11, 5, 7, 6, 6, 7)
  • LAR have allowed the 9th highest success rate to RBs through the air
  • Swift’s rec DK pts: 20.5 // 8.1 // 13 // 7.3 // 11.3 // 9.3

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 4:05pm Eastern

Eagles (
23.75) at

Raiders (
24.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
21st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
18th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
20th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
15th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
23rd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
11th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game has some sneaky upside, with a high game total and two teams that throw at an above average rate, while also playing faster than league average.
  • While this game in itself has higher than perceived potential, the spread out volume nature for both offenses will make identifying potential slate-changing performances from here very difficult.
  • The Eagles play calling this year has been head scratching based on their personnel and underlying statistics.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles enter this game at 2-4, coming off a 10 day break following last Thursday’s game against the Bucs. As is usually the case, struggles in Philadelphia have led to a lot of questioning in the city and media around the team. Some of those questions are very fair, however, as their approach has been an interesting one considering where their strengths in personnel and performance lie:

  • The Eagles rank 3rd in rushing offense DVOA, yet they run the ball at the 10th lowest rate in the NFL. 
  • Jalen Hurts is a very talented dual-threat QB, but the questions around him have always centered on his accuracy and timing in the pocket. Despite that, the Eagles are dropping him back at an above average rate and forcing him to make a lot of intermediate timing throws and deep throws into tight windows, especially on early downs. The result has been a low completion rate and a lot of long down and distances that force him to make even more difficult throws.
  • The Eagles pass defense has performed very well this year (5th lowest yards per pass attempt allowed), which should allow them to focus on a more run-heavy offense but they have not taken the opportunity to do so.

At this point in the season, teams who are failing to meet expectations will often shake things up a bit in their philosophy to try to spark something. For the Eagles, coming off a  “mini-bye” following their Thursday night game in Week 6, this would be the perfect time to adjust the focus of their offense. The departure of Zach Ertz could also provide some clarity and consistency in snap rates and usage for their skill position players, and consistency in those areas could lead to better rhythm and production. Dallas Goedert will now play almost every TE snap and the Eagles trio of wide receivers (Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins) should all play most snaps as the Eagles base 11 formations should be consistent from here on out. They also have a great trio of runners in their backfield, with QB Jalen Hurts and running backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. The Raiders run defense ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed and struggled to contain the dual-threat run game of the Ravens in Week 1. Miles Sanders is an extremely talented back and the Eagles would be wise to at least *try* to get him more involved at some point before the season totally slips away from them. Sanders saw 20 opportunities (carries + targets) in a big Week 1 win against Atlanta but has only averaged 12 opportunities in the five games since. The Eagles have the 10th graded run-blocking offensive line in the NFL by PFF and could be returning All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson this week. Another data point that should push the Eagles towards the run is the Raiders have PFF’s #1 ranked pass rush and #2 ranked coverage unit through six weeks. Forcing Hurts to stand in the pocket and throw the ball 40 times here is likely a losing proposition. 

It is hard to say with certainty what Philadelphia will do this week, but what they should do is build their game plan around Sanders/Hurts on the ground while mixing in short-area passing work for Goedert and their speedy wide receivers. This would help them control the game, put Hurts in manageable 3rd downs, and get the ball out of his hands quickly to avoid sacks and turnovers. The Eagles can and should maintain their 4th fastest pace of play while shifting focus more to the run game. The added physicality dimension of running the ball while playing at a fast pace could also take a toll on the Raiders defense as the game wears on.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas rallied the troops in Week 6 for a huge divisional road win against the Broncos, following a dramatic week where they lost their coach to some ugly off-the-field circumstances. They will look to follow that up by taking care of business at home against a struggling and inconsistent Eagles team. The Raiders are quietly tied for the AFC West divisional lead. With the Chargers on bye, and the Chiefs facing a tough road matchup with the Titans, they have a chance to take control of the division. 

As explored in last week’s NFL Edge, the Raiders didn’t change much about their approach in Week 6 despite the changes to the coaching staff. The Raiders spread the ball around, throw at an above league average rate of 63%, and let Derek Carr take calculated shots down the field to attack their opponent. The matchup itself could give them some issues as they are more efficient through the air than on the ground, but the Eagles defense is also much stronger against the pass than the run. The Eagles have struggled against the potent Bucs, Cowboys, and Chiefs passing offenses, who are currently ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th in pass offense DVOA; but, they have looked great against more middling competition from the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers that would more closely resemble what the Raiders bring to the table. The Raiders will run the ball some to set up the pass and will spread things out when they throw. Occasionally, Carr will take some deep shots, but the Eagles blitz at the third-lowest rate (14.8%) in the NFL and play a lot of deep zone coverages and very little man, which should limit the chances the Raiders have to really push the ball down the field.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game sets up for a disappointing game flow and scoring environment from what its game total indicates. It reminds me in a lot of ways of the Raiders home game against the Bears from Week 5, with the visiting team having a very good passing defense and a struggling passing offense that will likely lead to a more run-based approach. It is worth noting that in the three games against non-elite offenses, the Eagles defense has given up point totals of 6 >> 17 >> 18. The likelihood of Philly turning to their ground game (which will keep the clock moving) and Las Vegas struggling to score points against a tough defense makes this game more likely to be a good football game from a real life perspective than it is for fantasy.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • 4th highest total on a ten game slate (48.5)
  • LV favored by three
  • Line has moved up one pt
  • LV ranks T-13th in pts/g (24.5)
  • PHI ranks 20th (22.8)
  • PHI & LV both rank top 10 in pass play %
  • LV-9th (63.36%) // PHI-10th (62.61%)
  • LV D pts allowed: @ DEN-24 // vs CHI-20 // @ LAC-28  // vs MIA-28 // @ PIT-17 // vs BAL-27
  • PHI D pts allowed: vs TB-28 // @ CAR-18 // vs KC-42 // @ DAL-41 // vs SF-17 // @ ATL-6

Jalen Hurts:

  • In nine career full games (started & finished), Hurts has 20+ DK points in every one
  • Four of those games he’s thrown for 300+
  • In seven of those nine, he’s rushed for at least 40 yds
  • This season he has 14 pass TDs and five rushing
  • DK pts: vs TB-26.00 // @ CAR-23.92 // vs KC-31.18 // @ DAL-25.54 // vs SF-21.80 // @ ATL-28.76
  • Hurts’ tgts have been spread out w/ six players seeing between 15-18 tgts this season
  • LV allows the 11th least DK pts to QBs (18.5)
  • Hurts has the second most carries on the team (53), leads the team in rush yds (300), attempts 8.83/game, & avgs 5.7/rush (sixth in NFL)

PHI RBs:

  • Team Carry Share: Miles Sanders-40% // Gainwell-16% // (Hurts-43%)
  • PHI RBs only have one 20+ DK point game this season
  • Sanders ($5.1k) is the cheapest he’s been on DK since Week 11 2019, just 11 games into his career
  • Both these RBs combine for only 54% of the teams rush yds, Hurts makes up 44% alone
  • Tgts: Sanders-18 (14%) // Gainwell-15 (12%)
  • LV has allowed 26.0 RB points/g
  • LV to RBs: Melvin Gordon-10.30 + Javonte Williams-9.80 // Damien Williams-16.40 // Austin Ekeler-32.50 // Myles Gaskin-10.40 // Najee Harris-19.10 // Tyson Williams-18.40
  • Ekeler has been the only RB to top 20 DK pts vs LV but did so with 32.50

PHI WRs:

  • Devonta Smith leads PHI w/ 44 tgts, 27 receptions, & 345 yds
  • Target Share: Smith-22% // Reagor-14% // Quez Watkins-11%
  • Smith’s tgts by game: 2 // 7 // 7 // 3 // 2 // 6
  • His Week 7 salary ($5.4k) is down $600 from last week & is the same as his Week 2 salary
  • It rose every week since Week 1 until this week

PHI TEs: 

  • Dallas Goedert missed last week with Covid and is still currently being held out
  • TE snaps last week w/o Goedert: Zach Ertz-46 // Jack Stoll-15
  • Ertz has since been traded to ARZ
  • No remaining PHI TE besides Goedert has a tgt this season
  • LV allows the 6th most DK pts to TEs (17.6)

Derek Carr:

  • Carr has the sixth most pass attempts (232) but has played 2 OT games
  • Carr is second in pass yds (1,946) behind Tom Brady (2,064)
  • After last weeks 24.54 pt game, Carr has 24+ DK pts in four of six
  • DK pts: 24.54-@ DEN // 8.84-vs CHI // 15.44-@ LAC // 25.24-vs MIA // 27.18-@ PIT // 28.00-vs BAL
  • DK salary: $5.6k // $6.1k // $5.9k // $5.9k // $5.3k // $6k
  • HIs salary this week ($6k) is back to the same as it was week one
  • Of 18 QBs, Carr’s salary is the tenth highest
  • Other QBs in this price range: Ryan Tannehill vs KC-$6.4k // Joe Burrow @ BAL-$6.2k // Sam Darnold @ NYG-$5.9k // Matt Ryan @ MIA-$5.7k
  • PHI allows the ninth least DK pts to QBs (18.1)
  • Carr has taken the fifth most sacks (17), only six teams have less sacks than PHI (11)
  • He carries a 108.1 passer rating when clean but 72.7 under pressure
  • PHI allowed to QBs: Tom Brady-18.98 // Sam Darnold-9.08 // Patrick Mahomes-32.72 // Dak Prescott-21.12 // Jimmy Garoppolo-16.68 // Matt Ryan-16.62

LV RBs:

  • Last week was the first time Josh Jacobs rushed for 50+ yds (53)
  • Tgts: 1 // 5 // 5 // 2
  • He has four TDs in four games
  • RB snaps last week of 55: Jacobs-36 // Kenyan Drake-11 // Jalen Richard-8
  • In four games played, Jacobs has handled 64% of teams rush share
  • PHI allows the sixth most DK pts to RBs/g (29.6)
  • They’ve given up at least 20 DK pts to an RB the last four weeks and 30+ twice
  • PHI to RBs: Leonard Fournette-30.70 // Chuba Hubbard-21.40 // Clyde Edwards-Helaire-32.72 // Ezekiel Elliot-25.54 // Eli Mitchell+Jamycal Hasty-17.2 // Mike Davis+Cordarrelle Patterson-18.90

LV WRs:

  • Target Share: Hunter Renfrow-19% // Henry Ruggs (Q)-14% // Bryan Edwards (Q)-12% 
  • Yds/rec: Renfrow-11.0 // Ruggs-22.3 // Edwards-20.2
  • Ruggs is the only WR to have 100+ receiving yds this season
  • He also had at 97 yd game last week & scored his second TD on the season
  • No WR has 10+ tgts in a game
  • PHI allows the fourth least DK pts to WRs (30.4)

Darren Waller:

  • Waller saw 19 tgts week one 
  • Tgts since: 5 // 8 // 7 // 7 // 7
  • His only game w/ 5+ receptions was week one
  • The 19 tgt game was his only over 100 yds
  • Rec yds: 59 // 45 // 50 // 54 // 65 // 105
  • Wallers price ($6.7k) fallen from a Week 2 high of $7.6k
  • He’s priced $900 cheaper than Travis Kelce & $700 more than Mark Andrews
  • PHI allows the eighth most DK pts to TEs (17.0)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 4:25pm Eastern

Texans (
13.75) at

Cards (
33.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
23rd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
24th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
6th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
3rd DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
14th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
31st DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
29th DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • I left this writeup feeling like there weren’t many spots for guaranteed points. The Cardinals are full of touchdown-reliant plays, while the Texans all carry low floors.
  • The one exception to that, and likely my top interest from this game, is the Cardinals defense.
  • We don’t expect the Cardinals to fail in this spot, it’s simply that they have one quarterback, two running backs, four wide receivers, and one tight end (the bright and shiny-new Zach Ertz) who all should “get theirs.”

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Is that an oxymoron? I kid, I kid. Houston’s low 56% situation-neutral pass rate and 20th ranked situation-neutral pace of play paint a fairly telling picture with respect to how Houston is trying to win games this season. In stark contrast to our exploration of the Lions, and how they are willing to open up their offense if the situation calls for it (it has called for it quite often), the Texans hold a 55% situation-neutral pass rate in the first half of their games and a 57% situation-neutral pass rate in the second half of their games. Woof city. Not only are they barely increasing their pass rates when trailing, but their pace of play only jumps four seconds when they are trailing, compared to their normal situation-neutral pace of play. Double woof. So, the antiquated coaching staff of David Culley, Tim Kelly, and Lovie Smith think that the best way for them to try and win games is to hide their inadequacies on defense through high rush rates and a slow pace of play. Okay, Pete Carroll.

The problem with their run game (from a fantasy perspective, at least) is that four running backs continue to see weekly snaps. The four-headed head-scratcher has devolved a bit into primarily a two-man show of late, with David Johnson and Mark Ingram II splitting snaps at a near-even rate in three of the previous four weeks. The game where David Johnson took the clear lead was the Week 4 shutout at the hands of the Bills, but the team turned around and handed Ingram 33 snaps to the 32 of Johnson in their Week 6 game, in which they scored a whopping three points. Riddle me this, they fed Mark Ingram 18 carries and two targets in a game they lost by 28 points. I’m confused, and you should be too. David Johnson should see additional snaps in a game they are currently projected to lose by 17.5 points and score just 15, but who knows at this point. The matchup yields a laughable 3.93 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Houston’s league-low marks (3.23).

The snap split amongst the pass-catchers is quite literally Brandin Cooks and then everyone else, as Cooks is the only player to play more than 65% of the offensive snaps with Niko Collins back in the fold. Both Collins and regular “starter” Chris Conley were limited in practice Thursday, but it seems as if it was simply to manage the health of the two. Danny Amendola practiced fully both days so far this week, furthering the muddy waters behind Cooks. The tight ends are also in muddied water, with all three of Pharoah Brown, Jordan Akins, and Antony Auclair typically playing more than 33% of the offensive snaps for an offense running 12-personnel at a 29% clip, and 13-personnel at the second highest rate in the league (second only to the Browns, who actually have a run game). As for Cooks, he holds three games of 11 or more targets and three games of seven or fewer targets through six weeks.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

We have a pretty good idea of how the Cardinals are going to attack almost any opponent at this point, with an aim to spread the opposition out horizontally and mix an uptempo offense with high rush rates and short-area passing, designed to wear the opposing defense down over the course of a game. They will also mix in a handful of deep shots to Christian Kirk, AJ Green, and Rondale Moore. It will be interesting to see how the presence of Zach Ertz affects the volume expectation of the remaining members of the offense as he holds a long history of pass-catching efficiency. For as uptempo as we picture this offense to be, the Cardinals have run “only” 65.8 plays per game, which ranks 11th in the league. Their opponent runs only 59.0 plays per game, giving us a good idea of how many combined offensive plays to expect from this game.

The backfield continues to be relatively evenly split between Chase Edmonds and James Conner, with Edmonds typically landing in the 60-65% snap rate range, and Conner typically landing in the 40-50% snap rate range. It is worth noting that in the Cardinals 23 point victory over the Browns in Week 6, Conner out-snapped Edmonds 41 to 28. It is likely that story can be half attributed to the extreme positive game script, and half attributed to the nagging shoulder injury Edmonds has dealt with over the previous two weeks. Either way, we should expect a slight bump to Conner’s workload as the primary between-the-tackles grinder on this offense. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.53 net-adjusted line yards metric for a Cardinals offense that ranks sixth in the league in total rushing. Quarterback Kyler Murray holds a tight range of expected pass attempts, as he has landed between 30 and 36 in every game thus far. The Cardinals have landed between 61 and 69 offensive plays run from scrimmage in five of their six games, a range that is unlikely to drastically increase considering their opponent. This means we shouldn’t expect more than 32-36 pass attempts from Kyler here, with those targets likely spread between six primary pass-catchers (Hopkins, Green, Kirk, Moore, Chase Edmonds, who has at least four targets in every game this season, and newcomer Zach Ertz). This leaves the most expected volume amongst one pass-catcher, likely to be Nuk with seven to eight targets. Can he smash on those looks? Maybe, but he’s going to need to score multiple touchdowns and break a play or two in order to hit a solid price-considered ceiling. Let me be clear, this offense is highly unlikely to fail here, it is just equally as likely that no one pass-catcher sees enough volume to crush their salary multiplier.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see the high-powered Arizona offense move the ball with ease (a massive drive success rate delta of 18 on the week, with Arizona ranking seventh on offense and Houston ranking 25th on defense) against an inferior opponent. On the other side, Houston (clearly) should struggle as Davis Mills sees yet another start (Houston ranks 31st in drive success rate on offense). This setup is night and day when compared to the Rams/Lions game, where we can expect the Lions to up their aggression, pace, and pass numbers as the game moves on. Houston just doesn’t alter much at all, regardless of game environment, score, or opponent. That puts a pretty massive dent on this game environment overall, as we shouldn’t expect additional plays for the Cardinals, hence relying on efficiency and touchdowns from all players.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Kyler Murray:

  • Despite averaging just 21.15 DK pts over the last four games, Kyler is more expensive than he’s been all season at $8500
  • Pass att vs HOU: 51 // 24 // 34 // 30 // 30 // 20
  • Kyler has thrown between 30-36 passes in every game in 2021
  • HOU has faced the 4th fewest pass att/g
  • ARI has the 4th lowest pass rate in the NFL
  • The two biggest DK scores vs HOU were Lawrence (51 att in big trailing game-script) and Darnold (2 rush TDs)
  • Kyler is rushing for significantly less yardage this year (20, 31, 19, 39, 1, 6)
  • 10 of 30 QBs since 2014 on teams implied for 32+ pts have scored 30+ DK pts
  • 3 of 23 QBs since 2014 on teams favored by 16+ pts have scored 25+ DK pts
  • 2 of those 3 were Mahomes & Lamar vs the Gase-Jets in 2020 that ranked 8th in def rush DVOA but 28th in def pass DVOA
  • HOU ranks 11th in def pass DVOA and 29th in def rush DVOA

ARI WRs:

  • HOU has allowed the highest success rate to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80)
  • Hopkins score by salary multiplier in 2021: 3.4 // 1.9 // 0.6 // 1.4 // 2.7 // 2.6
  • Hopkins is averaging just 6.3 tg/g
  • HOU has allowed the 4th highest rate of explosive passes to WRs
  • HOU has allowed 17 deep completions on 26 deep WR targets
  • Hopkins, Kirk & Green are among PFF’s highest graded WRs on tg over 10 & 20 yds
  • On 20 tg of 10+ yds, Hop has 14 rec for 257 yds, 4 TD (18.4 yds/rec)
  • On 16 tg of 10+ yds, Kirk has 12 rec for 252 yds, 3 TD (21 yds/rec)
  • On 18 tg of 10+ yds, Green has 12 rec for 277 yds, 2 TD (23.1 yds/rec)
  • Only four of Moore’s 24 tg have come beyond 10 yds (16 behind LOS)
  • Kirk & Green already have three strong games each::
  • Kirk (5:70:2 // 7:104 // 5:75:1) // Green (5:112 // 5:67:1 // 5:79:1)

Zach Ertz:

  • TEs with 40+ yds vs HOU: O’Shag (48) // Bryant (49), Hooper (40) // Henry (75:1)
  • HOU has allowed five TE TDs
  • Williams tg before getting hurt: 1 // 7 // 3 // 5
  • Ertz has been with ARI for a week

ARI RBs:

  • Rush att: Edmonds (12 // 8 // 11 // 12 // 6 // 4) // Conner (16 // 8 // 11 // 18 // 10 // 16)
  • Edmonds has 30 tg to Conner’s 5
  • Conner has 6 att inside-5 to Edmonds 1, and 11 att inside-10 to Edmonds 5
  • Backfields vs HOU are averaging 150.7 total yds; HOU allowed a league-high 190.9 yds/g in 2020 so that’s still a positive increase for the Texans
  • Ten RBs in six games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • RBs with 14+ rush att vs HOU: Singletary (14:79), Moss (14:61:1) // Harris (14:58:1)
  • Conner’s 71 yds last week were a season-high
  • Edmonds has 75+ yds four times: 106 // 75 // 75 // 139
  • Edmonds has yet to score a TD

Davis Mills:

  • In 14 Quarters vs CLE/CAR/BUF/IND, Mills totaled 600 yds, 2 TD, 7 INT, 10 sacks, and HOU scored 19 total points
  • In 4 Quarters vs NE, Mills totaled 312 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 3 sacks, and HOU scored 22 points
  • ARI has allowed just 9 TDs to 6 INT
  • 280 yds to Stafford in a blowout is the most pass yds ARI has allowed in 2021

Brandin Cooks:

  • Cooks targets on Mills pass att: 9/18, 11/28, 7/21, 5/29, 13/43
  • Cooks in 14 quarters with Mills: 4:28:1, 9:112, 5:47, 3:23, 9:89
  • Players with 8+ tg vs ARI: Brown (4:49:1) // Jefferson (6:65:1) // MJJ (6:62) // Kupp (5:64) // Deebo (3:58) // Odell (5:79)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 4:25pm Eastern

Bears (
17.75) at

Bucs (
29.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
22nd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
5th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
15th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
4th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
14th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
7th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>
  • The Bears are showing signs of life offensively and the maturation of Justin Fields is growing by the week, with the staff putting more on his plate and showing more trust each game.
  • The Bucs continue to roll through inferior opponents and impose their will on defenses and game scripts.
  • On paper, this matchup would appear to push the Bucs towards the run but, in reality, this is not a shy away matchup for their #1 rated passing offense.
  • The Bucs should approach their implied team total regardless of how the game plays out, while the game as a whole has the potential for fireworks if the Bears can have some offensive success.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

JM did a fantastic job in his Tuesday pod talking about how to dig deeper into box scores and look for things that may not be readily apparent. Much has been made about the Bears run-heavy offense this season, particularly since Justin Fields took over as their starting QB. If you just glazed over the box score from Week 6, you would think it was the same old story for the Bears as Fields attempted 27 passes with the Bears running the ball 26 times. However, if you dig deeper and/or watched the game, there are some different takeaways that we can find:

  • On paper, the Bears ran the ball 14 times and passed 14 times in the first half. However, three of those runs were scrambles by Fields on called pass plays, one was a shovel pass to Cole Kmet that was ruled a backward pass and therefore scored as a run, and there was a pass interference penalty on Green Bay that doesn’t show up in the box score. So, in reality, the Bears called 19 pass plays to 10 run plays in the first half of a competitive game (halftime score was 10-7).
  • After going a bit more run-heavy during the 3rd quarter, Fields led the Bears on an impressive 4th quarter drive to cut the Packers lead to 17-14. On that drive, Fields was 5/5 for 64 yards and a TD, also adding a 14-yard scramble. Fields also led the Bears on another drive, after the Packers scored to make the score 24-14, quickly taking the Bears down to the Packers 32-yard line before a couple of sacks short-circuited things and effectively ended the game.

Actually watching the game and understanding the box score shows us that the Bears are starting to show trust in Fields earlier in games and that he is getting more comfortable pushing the ball down the field and playing in situations where the team needs to be more aggressive late. Both of those takeaways are very good signs for Fields’ development as a QB and will be critical to this week for the Bears. 

Don’t get it twisted, the Bears certainly do want to be able to run the ball and have that as part of their identity. However, this week, against the Bucs top-5 run defense, that won’t be much of an option. Opponents barely even try to run on the Bucs — the last three weeks their opponents have had a combined 22 running back carries (six for the Patriots, seven for the Dolphins, nine for the Eagles). Even the week before against the Rams it was a similar story — the Rams ran the ball 22 times total but threw it at a 35-12 pass-to-run ratio before building a three-score lead in the second half. The Bears will either follow the game plan that every other team has shown and turn very pass-heavy early on, or they will try forcing the run early, likely with very little success, and be forced to abandon the run altogether once they fall behind. Last week’s play-calling and usage suggests they are trusting Fields more and will be more likely to attack the Bucs beat-up secondary than most people will be expecting.

How Tampa Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have a very good defense, ranking 7th in the league in DVOA while statistically being stronger against the pass than the run. However, the Bucs are not a team that is blindly going to be forced into a particular mode of functioning by an inferior opponent, which the Bears clearly are. This matchup is similar to the last two games for the Bucs — a solid defense who rates better against the pass than the run. Over the course of those two games, the Bucs held similar to their usual tendencies with 67% and 60% pass rates, respectively. We should expect more of the same here.

The Bucs will run often enough to keep the defense honest and open up the passing game, but this offense is built on Tom Brady and his incredible receiving corps. The Bears rate well in pass defense by DVOA, but have not played a schedule of particularly explosive passing offenses — something that shows up in their 30th ranked coverage unit by PFF grades. Those two statistics combined tell a story that the Bears pass defense is very beatable if they face a team with a variety of weapons and aggressive tendencies, two categories that the Bucs clearly check the boxes in. Tampa Bay will try to win simply by being themselves — aggressively attacking their opponent to build early leads and maintaining their aggression to step on the throat. Top-tier teams like the Bucs impose their will in matchups like these and we should expect nothing short of that from the defending Super Bowl champions here. They are #1 in the NFL in pass offense DVOA and yards per pass attempt, they are going to do what they do here.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Buccaneers will almost certainly control the game flow in this spot as they have superior talent, chemistry, and coaching. Assuming they are able to have early offensive success, they will be in control from the start. In a scenario where they are slow out of the gate, the Bears will be unlikely to have any offensive success if they focus too much on the run. The Bears will need to be more aggressive and pass-heavy than their previous tendencies, which should lead to a slightly faster pace and more play volume. If the Bears are not able to have success through the air, they will have short possessions resulting in the Bucs having the ball more and being able to score, rack up play volume, and press the gas on this game even faster. If the Bears do have success through the air early and can keep it close or take a lead, the Bucs will feel that pressure and be even more likely to attack and play aggressively early on and deeper into the game. In either outcome, we are likely to see a good-to-great game from the Bucs offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense will either provide an above-average (by their standards) performance or the Bucs defense will have a field day, with the Bears receivers still likely to see increased usage in a rout.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • Rematch of 2020’s 19-20 TB loss that birthed the Brady meme in which he forgot what down it was
  • TB has since added AB, won a SB, and scored 30+ pts in 13/21 games
  • Since allowing 34 to LAR in W1, CHI has allowed 17 (CIN), 26 (CLE), 14 (DET), 9 (LV), & 24 (GB) pts
  • CHI ranks 7th in overall defensive DVOA

Tom Brady:

  • Stafford is the only QB to throw for 300 yds vs CHI
  • Brady’s pass yds: 379 // 276 // 432 // 269 // 411 // 297
  • CHI has faced the 6th fewest pass att and Goff’s 38 are the most in a game
  • Brady’s pass att: 50 // 36 // 55 // 43 // 41 // 42
  • CHI has allowed 10 TDs to 4 INT
  • Brady has 17 TDs to 3 INT

TB WRs:

  • TB WRs times leading/tied for lead in targets w/ AB: Evans (8), Godwin (7), Brown (6)
  • TB tg 2021: Godwin (47) // Evans (49) // Brown (42)
  • TB tg in 3g w/o Gronk: Godwin (21) // Evans (24) // Brown (32)
  • Evans had just four games of 20+ DK pts in 2020 (1 with AB)
  • Evans has three games of 20+ DK pts already in 2021 (2 with AB)
  • Brown has more yds than Godwin in 4 of 5 games
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs CHI: Kupp (108:1), Van (80:1) // Boyd (73) // Odell (77) // Cephus (83), St. Brown (70) // Davante (89)
  • CHI is facing the 6th highest aDOT
  • TB WR aDOTs: Evans (14.5) // Brown (13.3) // Godwin (8.6)

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette rush att: 9 // 11 // 4 // 20 // 12 // 22
  • Fournette targets: 7 // 4 // 3 // 5 // 5 // 6
  • RBs with 60+ rush yds vs CHI: Hendy (70:1) // Mixon (69) // Hunt (81:1), Chubb (84) // Williams (66) // Jones (76)
  • Fournette rush yds: 32 // 52 // 8 // 92 // 67 // 81
  • RBs with 30+ rec yds vs CHI: Hunt (74) // Swift (33) // Jones (34:1)
  • Fournette rec yds: 27 // 24 // 26 // 47 // 43 // 46

Justin Fields:

  • TB has allowed the 6th most completed air yds despite the 2nd lowest forced aDOT
  • Fields aDOT by game: 11.6 // 6.2 // 13.4 // 10.2 // 12.5
  • Fields on 20+ yd passes: 6/19 for 192 yds, INT (7 Big Time Throws per PFF)
  • QB pass yds vs TB: 403 // 300 // 343 // 275 // 275 // 115
  • Fields pass yds: 60 // 68 // 209 // 111 // 174
  • QB pass att vs TB: 58 // 48 // 38 // 40 // 39 // 26
  • Fields pass att: 13 // 20 // 17 // 20 // 27
  • Hurts rushed for 44 yds, 2 TD on 10 att vs TB
  • Fields rushing yds: 31 // 12 // 9 // 4 // 43
  • TB blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL
  • Fields has taken almost half as many sacks (8) as he has completions vs the blitz (17) on 43 blitzed dropbacks

CHI WRs:

  • ARob doesn’t have more than 63 yds this season
  • Mooney has one game over 66 yds this season (125)
  • WRs with 60+ yds vs TB: Cooper (13:139:2), Lamb (7:104:1) // Ridley (7:63:1) // Kupp (9:96:2), Jackson (3:120:1) // Meyers (8:70) // Williams (3:60) // 
  • Tg in last 3 with Lazor calling plays: Mooney (7, 5, 8) // ARob (3, 5, 7)
  • WRs aDOT:
  • TB is allowing the 6th most WR DK pts/g

Cole Kmet:

  • TEs vs TB: Jarwin/Schultz (9:65) // Pitts (5:73) // Higbee (5:40:1) // Henry (4:32:1), Jonnu (3:14:1) // Gesicki (4:43) // Ertz (4:29:1)
  • TB allowed 14.2 & 14.0 DK pts/g to TEs in Bowles first two TB seasons
  • TB is allowing 16.5 DK pts to TEs through six games
  • Kmet has two games with 40+ rec yds (42, 49), and four games with a combined 39 rec yds

CHI RBs:

  • CHI rush att sans Monty: Williams (16, DNP) // Herbert (18, 19)
  • CHI rush yds sans Monty: Williams (64, DNP) // Herbert (75, 97)
  • Def rush DVOA of those two defenses: LV (10th) // GB (30th)
  • Def rush DVOA of TB: 5th
  • No team allowed fewer rush yds than TB in 2020, with the next closest team allowing nearly 200 yds more; 2019 TB allowed the fewest by 100+ yds as well
  • In 20 games, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • Gurley & AK were the only two RBs to break 20 DK pts in 2019 vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • Through six 2021 games, TB has allowed two 20+ DK pt scores to RBs, with Patterson & Gaskin combining for 15 rec & 4 TDs in those games
  • Patterson (7:11:1, 5:58:1) // Gaskin (5:25, 10:74:2)
  • TB allowed the most RB rec in 2020; 7.5 rec/g allowed so far in 2021
  • Targets sans Monty: Williams (2, 3, –) // Herbert (0, 0, 3)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 8:20pm Eastern

Colts (
19) at

49ers (
22.5)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
2nd DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
8th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
20th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
5th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
49ers Run D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
22nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
19th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

This week’s island games are all pretty low total ones, and on Sunday night we have the Colts visiting the 49ers for a 43 point affair. San Francisco is favored by four at home. We have a bit of a weather game here, with likely rain and a good possibility of winds. Remember that winds have to be at 15-20 mph or greater to have any real impact on pass games, but there’s a chance of that, so keep an eye on the weather; also, remember that if people start shying away from . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 25th 8:15pm Eastern

Saints (
23.25) at

Hawks (
18.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
1st DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
13th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
14th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
12th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
9th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
23rd DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
9th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

A week of ugly island games continues as the Saints visit the Seahawks on Monday night. The game has an uninspiring 42 point total with New Orleans installed as a four point road favorite. Both of these offenses are somewhat mediocre, though the Saints have scored 21 or more points in four of five games, so this total feels perhaps a smidge conservative given the Seahawks defensive woes.

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NEW ORLEANS

On the New Orleans side, Alvin Kamara is finally being utilized as a bell cow running back. He’s seen . . .

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