Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Giants run a fast-paced, inefficient offense
• The poor game environment is the biggest obstacle to DFS success 
• Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson cost $10,800 to stack on DK
• Chuba Hubbard is underpriced for his role in a strong matchup

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers enter this game a disappointing 3-3 after starting the year in a dominant 3-0 fashion. The rub? The Panthers played the Jets, Saints, and Texans in their first three games. Since their unbeaten beginning, the Panthers have dropped three straight games against better competition losing close contests to the Cowboys/Eagles/Vikings. That lights out Panthers defense that gave up ten points a game to start the year failed to hold any of the Cowboys/Eagles/Vikings to under 21. The Panthers were underrated to begin the year, overrated after their first three games, and they are currently sitting around what their expected outcome should be the rest of the way.

Matt Rhule is in a tough spot sitting at 3-3 after expectations were artificially inflated by the Panthers early season schedule. His best player, Christian McCafferty, hit the IR and is out until at least Week 9. Since the loss of CMC, the Panthers have been struggling to find their identity on offense. They play at an average situational neutral pace (17th) but are willing to speed up when losing (7th place) and slow down when winning (23rd). The Panthers want to run a balanced offense and “see how the game goes” before deciding on their level of aggression. The Giants are weaker against the run (27^th in DVOA) than the pass (22^nd in DVOA) but the gap isn’t drastic, and I doubt it would influence the Panthers approach anyway. Expect the Panthers to start balanced, before deciding on how they want to attack, based on what is working and the game situation.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 1-5 Giants have been a disappointment against their moderate expectations to start the year. No one had this team as a contender but their roster has enough talent to compete. The Giants coaching staff is certainly hoping for an “injury mulligan,” and while the G-men have seen more than their fair share of the training room, that isn’t the reason they are underperforming their talent level. The Giants are a poorly coached team led by Patriots disciple Joe Judge (all the Patriots coaches are overrated due to results achieved with the greatest QB of all time) and former Jerry Jones lap dog, Jason Garrett. The Giants are playing fast (7^th situational neutral pace), they play even faster when they’re losing (3^rd pace when trailing), but they are running a lot of inefficient plays. The Panthers are easier to run on (18^th in DVOA) than to pass on (7^th in DVOA) creating a mini-run funnel. It would make sense for the Giants to probe for weaknesses on the ground but since Jason Garret doesn’t know whether to sneeze or fart most weeks, don’t expect a significant game plan adjustment. Coming off two blowout losses, expect the G-Men to try and throw the ball early in hopes of showing their annoyed home crowd that they still have fight left in them, rather than attempting to attack the strategic weakness of their opponent.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 43 point total which reflects the lackluster scoring environment expected. The Panthers opened as 2.5 favorites before being quickly bet through the three. The half-point line move is significant because of the number, and if the line continues to three and a half, that would be an indicator that the Panthers are going to control this game. The most likely game flow is that both teams attempt to stay balanced while waiting for their opponent to force a reaction. The game should stay close, with the Panthers pulling away in the second half and forcing more aggression from the Giants.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game could mirror their prior Week 2 affair
• The Jets offense is expected to struggle
• The Patriots passing volume will likely be limited by game flow
• The best DFS play from this game is a defense

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 1-4 Jets haven’t been good this year but they have shown signs of life in the last two weeks. After starting an uncompetitive 0-4, they stunned the Titans in overtime, before losing a one-score game to the Falcons. The Jets play slow when it’s close (25th situational neutral pace), and slow when they’re losing (18th pace when trailing), but speed up when they’re winning (2nd fastest pace when leading). Ya. That doesn’t make much sense. The Jets are still searching for their identity as Zach Wilson figures out the NFL.

The Jets have figured one thing out though, they are a lot more competitive when they reel in Zach Wilson. This strategy makes a lot of sense since Wilson has yet to complete an NFL game without throwing the ball to the other team. It’s hard to win games when your QB has thrown nine interceptions in five games. Expect the Jets to try and play “hide the INT machine QB” until the scoreboard forces them out of their game plan.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Bill Belichick’s Patriots come into their second game with the confused Jets at a disappointing 2-4. They’ve absorbed losses against the Dolphins/Saints/Bucs/Cowboys while only narrowly defeating the Texans. Their lone confident victory came against these Jets in Week 2. If the Patriots play the Jets every week, it’ll be like Brady never left! The Patriots did lose three of those four games by one score, dropping last week’s game in heartbreaking fashion in overtime. The Patriots aren’t far away from being 5-1 but I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way in their locker room right now.  

Belichick is an adaptable coach that is willing to relentlessly attack the relative weakness of a defense. The Jets can be attacked through the air (23rd in DVOA) or on the ground (17th in DVOA), which will allow the Patriots to proceed in whichever manner they see fit. Belichick has shown enough trust in Mac Jones to come out passing. There is a good chance they mirror their Week 2 game plan, leaning pass-heavy early, before using their running game to salt the game away in the second half.  

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Patriots have been installed as a confident seven-point favorite in a home game they can’t afford to lose. The most likely game flow is highly likely in this one as Belichick must win to keep any playoffs hopes alive. There isn’t a reason to believe the Pats will deviate from their Week 2 game plan. This game is likely to play out with the Patriots showing aggression early, before riding their running game to an easy victory in the second half.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW::

BY Hilow >>>

• The field might struggle to attack this game optimally – as in, it isn’t as simple as “each team should smash so let’s build all our rosters around this spot.”
• Thinking through the potential game scripts and scenarios gives us a significant edge for the highest profile game of the week (which will be done in the DFS Interpretation section below).
• That said, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Derrick Henry are all set up well in this game, with ancillary pass-catchers from each side viable in rosters that cater to various potential game environments.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The 3-3 Kansas City Chiefs go on the road to face a potential playoff opponent in a game that could decide the playoff home team. To say this game has more meaning than your typical Week 7 matchup is an understatement. In their first game without second-year starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs passed the ball at a 64% situation-neutral clip, right in line with their 62% marks over the course of the first six weeks. Darel Williams filled in as the primary ball-carrier and saw a massive 25 running back opportunities en route to almost 24 fantasy points. BUT (yup, here’s the “but”) he did so on the backs of two short touchdown plunges (three and one-yard scores) and a putrid 3.0 yards per carry. Don’t be fooled into thinking he will somehow evolve into the primary focus of this offense. That honor rests squarely on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes. Since the rush-to-pass ratios have remained fairly consistent for the Chiefs this season, the biggest influence on expected volume for each lands on the total number of offensive plays the Chiefs run from scrimmage. And since they boast the most efficient offense in the league, capable of scoring fast and sustaining drives, the most impactful metric to their total offensive plays run from scrimmage in games has been how quickly their opponents can score. This is an important idea when considering the various ways this game can play out (which we will get into more below!).

As alluded to earlier, we should expect Darel Williams to act as the primary ball-carrier, with Jerick McKinnon spelling him in a change of pace and third-down role. McKinnon has seen snap rates of 31% and 28% the previous two weeks (the week CEH got hurt and the week after he was placed on IR), which is a solid projection for Week 7. In those two games, he saw opportunity totals of three and seven. There is nothing in the metrics that hint at an expanded role here, leaving him out of consideration for fantasy purposes. Darel Williams’ volume should then be considered a direct result of the number of offensive plays run from scrimmage by the Chiefs as their week-to-week rush-pass rates have remained fairly sticky.

Similar to the expected volume of the running backs, Patrick Mahomes’ pass volume is highly reliant on the total number of offensive plays the Chiefs are able to run (more so than game environment). Since that volume relies so heavily on how quickly opponents are able to score on the Chiefs (because the Chiefs rank dead last in the NFL in defensive drive metrics like yards allowed per drive and drive success rate allowed), paired with the fact that the Titans offense is so heavily built around the run, and their running back is capable of breaking off chunk gains on every touch, and we start to see a clearer picture regarding how the optimal way to approach this game. Tyreek Hill has seen 12 or more targets in three consecutive weeks, while Travis Kelce has seen double-digit looks in three of the last four contests. These two represent 50.5% of the team’s target market share to date, highlighting just how involved they are on a weekly basis. Behind Hill and Kelce, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman each typically play between 60% and 80% of the offensive snaps and should be considered high ceiling, low floor plays. Byron Pringle has not seen a substantial boost to snap rate this season as many thought he might and should be reserved for deep MME play. 

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN::

5.2. That’s the yards allowed per rush from the Kansas City defense this season. Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Eagles, Bills, and the Football Team. Those have been their opponents. Those teams rank second, 24^th, 15^th, 21^st, eighth, and 18^th in adjusted line yards on offense this year, indicating that the poor yards allowed per rush from the Kansas City defense are not simply a factor of teams they have played to this point. Tennessee holds the league’s sixth highest situation-neutral rush rate through six weeks, a year after finishing third highest. The Titans have a running back named Derrick Henry who leads the league in rushing, after leading the league each of the last two years. It is no secret how the Titans will attempt to win this game, the only question becomes how deep into it they’ll be able to stick to that plan of attack considering their own shortcomings on defense (27^th in DVOA against the pass does not bode well against the Cheifs).

The matchup on the ground yields an elite 4.66 net-adjusted line yards metric but the Titans are likely to be without perennial All-Pro Tackle Taylor Lewan after he was carted off the field in Week 6 with a scary-looking head injury that was ultimately deemed a concussion. We all know the drill by now – Derrick Henry, by the numbers, gets better as the game progresses. This should primarily be attributed to the beating he inflicts on opposing defenses over four grueling quarters of play. I would say the injury to Anthony Hitchens is a big deal for the Chiefs, but that simply isn’t the case. Hitchens is one of PFF’s worst-graded linebackers in the league this season.

Although not typically thought of as the main cog of the offense, the pass game could see a boost to volume depending on game script. Furthering the intrigue are the multitude of injuries to the primary pass-catchers. AJ Brown has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) with the stomach troubles associated with food poisoning while Julio Jones returned to a limited practice on Thursday following a missed practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. Keep an eye on the statuses of both heading into the weekend, as an absence from either would both narrow down the expected target distribution as well as vault Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Marcus Johnson into prominent roles. Behind those four, expect Chester Rogers to operate as wide receiver depth assuming Josh Reynolds, who was inactive via coaching decision on Monday Night Football this past week, is once again held out. Rogers has also yet to practice this week but his absence would be nearly inconsequential with Marcus Johnson now healthy. The 18% tight end target rate falls just below league average but has led to a season-high of only five targets to any one of Anthony Firkser, Geoff Swaim, and MyCole Pruitt.  

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW::

There is a wide range of potential outcomes with respect to likeliest game flow here, leading to a situation that is best attacked by singling out various game scenarios on different rosters. For the primary fantasy players, those potential game environments don’t alter the low end of their respective range of outcomes (floor), instead extending or contracting the theoretical ceiling. As in, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce can each be counted on for a couple of the highest floors on the week, but their ceiling greatly depends on the potential for expanded volume (a shootout or playing from behind). Similarly, Derrick Henry and his heavy volume are nearly locked in but his ceiling depends greatly on touchdowns, which would have a large effect on the expected game environment. Secondary members of each team should be reserved for game stacks as each typically does not see the requisite volume in order to provide solid price-considered returns.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The Packers have been quietly taking care of business since an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Saints and now sit at 5-1 with a two game lead in their division.
• Washington continues to battle injuries among their skill players and a disappointing defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt.
• These teams operate on different ends of the spectrum in terms of pace of play. Ironically, the stronger team (Green Bay) plays at a slower pace while the inferior team (Washington) plays faster. Green Bay is more likely to drag the game’s total snaps and pace down than Washington is to force a faster pace.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has had a brutal schedule to date with spots against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills already in their rearview. A trip to Lambeau will provide another big obstacle for a team that entered the season with high expectations and has so far disappointed. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has come crashing back to earth recently. After some good performances early in his time as the starter, he has combined to average a measly 5.4 yards per pass attempt against the Saints and Chiefs the last two weeks. The current injury state of Washington’s skill position players is certainly not helping his cause, but this is something we will often see with backup level quarterbacks as their opponents get more film on them and data on their tendencies. With matchups on tap against the Packers, Broncos, and Buccaneers, Washington should emerge from this stretch with a clear view on exactly where Heinicke falls in their long-term plans.

Looking at how Washington will attack this game, they are likely to have a balanced attack that the specifics of will depend on the health of their playmakers. Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, who are clearly their best skill players, are both tending to difficult lower-body injuries and missed practice on Wednesday after being very ineffective in Week 6. The bright spot for Washington’s offense has been their offensive line, which is the 3rd graded unit by PFF in pass blocking and also ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. It will be critical for Washington to continue their offensive line success and protect Heinicke to prevent him from making mistakes that would let the game get away from them. Gibson may miss this game and, if he is active, will likely not be his usual explosive self as he deals with a stress fracture in his shin that prevented him from finishing the game against the Chiefs. As a result, Washington will likely not be able to lean on the run in this game to the level they would like to. Expect a mix of some short-area passing with some intermediate shots being taken on early downs to try and give Heinicke more manageable situations on 2nd and 3rd down. Due to the injuries they are dealing with, Washington is likely to need to do some creative things to sustain drives. They will also have to be focused on successful drives early in this game as possessions will be at a premium against a slow-paced and efficient Green Bay team.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

After an embarrassing start to the season against the Saints, the Packers offense has been averaging 28.2 points per game over the last five weeks. Now they get a matchup against a Washington defense that has given up 29 or more points in five straight games. Frankly, the Packers 28.75 implied team total feels very low in this spot. The one part of the Washington defense that still has some bite is their talented defensive line that has the #2 rated pass rush by PFF this season. Unfortunately, Washington also has PFF’s 31st-rated coverage unit, and the Packers’ offensive line is rated 9th in pass blocking grades, which should allow them to give Aaron Rodgers enough time to pick on them whenever he feels like it.

Rodgers and the Packers will do what they do here — play sound, balanced football, and bleed the clock. In matchups like this, Rodgers is likely to do a lot of damage on limited volume against Washington’s 28th rated DVOA pass defense. The Packers have shown no interest in moving away from their balanced to run-heavy approach, and a matchup against a struggling Football Team certainly won’t force their hand. Rodgers will definitely take his shots against this secondary, but he will be so efficient when he throws that it may limit the passing offense’s volume. This is a team on a mission who will play at their typical methodical pace and try to get out of here in one piece once they feel the game is in hand. Despite the presence of their MVP quarterback, the Packers play at the 6th slowest situation-neutral pace and also throw the ball at below the league average rate in neutral situations.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Packers should control this game from the start. The defending MVP against a pass defense that is currently dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed is a recipe for trouble. With the Packers likely to have success from the start and Washington having so many question marks on their offense, it is likely that this game is controlled by the Packers — which means it will be slow-paced. Shorter drives that end in punts for Washington mean the Packers have the ball more and can milk the clock on long, sustained drives that allow them to gradually build a substantial lead. While Washington has played at a relatively fast pace (6th in situation-neutral pace of play), their likely lack of efficiency will keep them from pushing the pace in this spot.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Miami leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 69%, while Atlanta ranks eighth in the league at 64%.
• Miami ranks third in the league in first-half situation-neutral pace of play while Atlanta ranks eighth.
• These teams combine to allow 130.2 plays per game, while the offenses combine for 128.9 plays per game.
• We’re liable to see 135+ offensive plays run from scrimmage here, which gives this game environment sneaky fantasy appeal.
• Both teams rank 29^th or worse in defensive drive success rate allowed, 27^th or worse in points allowed per drive, and 20^th or worse in turnovers forced while each offense ranks in the middle of the pack in turnovers per drive.
• These offenses combine for under 44 rush attempts per game.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

On the surface, Atlanta appears to be operating a heavy two-tight end offense (league-low 28% 11-personnel alignments), but we know that “tight end” Kyle Pitts has been used heavily out of the slot and out wide (79% of his offensive snaps have come from either the slot or split out wide). We also know that “running back” Cordarrelle Patterson has played only 135 total offensive snaps and that 51 of those have come with him either split out wide or out of the slot. Basically, the Falcons have had to turn mud into water with the offensive personnel available on their active roster, not to mention the absence of Calvin Ridley for personal reasons in Week 5 and the extended absence of wide receiver Russell Gage. On the season, Atlanta ranks eighth in both situation-neutral pace of play and situation-neutral pass rate, with quarterback Matt Ryan attempting 35 or more passes in every game this year (with three games above 42).

The backfield has also been a Frankenstein effort, piecemealing the combination of Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson into a backfield in the loosest sense of the word. Mike Davis has surprisingly scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season but has yet to demonstrate any level of ceiling. He has opportunity counts on the season of 21, 16, 16, 15, and 18, with 24 targets to his name. Patterson has played far fewer snaps but has seen at least six targets in all but one game. The two have combined for seven total touchdowns on the year, five of which have come through the air.

We shouldn’t expect half of the team’s receiving touchdowns to continue to come through the running backs, which screams positive regression for both Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, and, to a lesser extent, Russell Gage. We should expect the Falcons to score here and it is likeliest for those scores to come through the air, leaving both Pitts and Ridley in an excellent position to improve upon their modest to-date production. That likelihood gains further traction should Byron Jones and/or Xavien Howard miss their second consecutive game this week. Head coach Brian Flores historically utilizes heavy blitz rates on second and third downs, with high levels of cover-0, man coverages on later downs. This tilts the expected success rates through the air towards an already low intended air yards average, meaning the Falcons are likeliest to achieve success over the areas of the field they are already attacking heavily.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins have made good on their obvious plans to focus on the passing game after their offseason moves, ranking first in the NFL in situation-neutral pass rate over the first six weeks. They have played at the league’s third-fastest first-half situation-neutral pace of play and the fifth-fastest overall pace of play to start the year. The overall offensive production has been heavily influenced by injuries up to this point, with all of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and Preston Williams, and cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard all missing time. The injury information we currently have out of Dolphins camp is rather limited considering the team only held a walkthrough on Wednesday. Any absences from the aforementioned pieces are likely to either narrow the expected target distribution or increase the likelihood of pass production against in the case of the cornerbacks (who each missed last week with multiple issues).

The Dolphins backfield is a veritable mess. All of Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Malcolm Brown typically see enough snaps to sap the life from all parties, which came to its most ugly head last week when no back saw more than 36% of the available offensive snaps. There also seems to be no rhyme or reason for the changing dynamics of the backfield. What we know is this: Gaskin has seen exactly five or six targets in four of six games, Ahmed has seen exactly two or three targets in five of six games, and Malcolm Brown has four total targets on the season. Gaskin has seen double-digit rushing attempts in only one game this year, while Ahmed and Brown typically combine for 10-12 rush attempts of their own. The bottom line is matchup almost doesn’t matter here, but the matchup yields a mediocre 4.12 net-adjusted line yards metric, held down by Miami’s 29^th-ranked marks.

The primary appeal (and primary means for attack) from this offense comes through the air. On the season, Tua holds a moderate 8.0 intended air yards per pass attempt and 6.2 completed air yards per completion, which is highly influenced by a small sample size and injuries to his pass-catchers. Furthering the current unknowns are injuries to Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, and Preston Williams, the latter two of which could return this week. The big picture, though, is that Miami leads the league in 12-personnel alignments at 46%, with Mike Gesicki in a route on a robust 187 total pass attempts this season. Jaylen Waddle should see 85-95% of the offensive snaps regardless of the statuses of Parker and Williams, while Albert Wilson is likely limited to 11-personnel alignments (only 45% on the season). 

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game yields an interesting dynamic in that each defense struggles to prevent sustained drives, generate turnovers, and suppress points while each offense chooses to operate with pace and elevated pass rates. Basically, we have everything we need in our quest for expected fantasy goodness. Furthermore, based on the offensive tendencies of each team, actual game flow means less to the ultimate outcome for each team’s respective plans of attack than it would in a standard game. The likeliest game flow has this game playing close throughout, with each team tilting their offensive game plans towards an aerial attack. This presents an interesting situation where the chances of a shootout are much higher than the field is likely to give credit for, while the floors of each team’s primary play-makers are higher than a standard game as well due to the defensive deficiencies of each team. I expect the range of outcomes of primary play-makers from this game to not match overall ownership, presenting us with solid leverage opportunities. 

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is probably the biggest game of the Zac Taylor era in Cincinnati, with the winner of this game taking control of the AFC North.

• These teams are a combined 9-3 with all three of the losses coming in overtime. We should expect a highly competitive game.

• Both teams are strong defensively and rank bottom-10 in pass rate, setting up a classic AFC North slugfest.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals continued their run-heavy tendencies of 2021 last week against the Lions, running the ball more often than they passed for the third time in six games. When the season started, it was reasonable to expect the Bengals to pass at the high rate they had last year, considering they added another explosive weapon in Ja’Marr Chase. However, the Bengals switched course and are likely to continue their winning recipe for the foreseeable future. A franchise that has struggled for a long time and been the brunt of many jokes, the Bengals are a legitimate team this year behind a top-10 defense and a balanced offense that can be explosive when it needs to be. The Bengals are 4-2 but could very easily be 6-0 as the Vikings needed a 53-yard field goal as time expired in regulation to force overtime, and the Bengals missed multiple field goals that would have won the game against the Packers.

Baltimore is 3rd in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt while ranking 26th in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed. In theory, this creates a classic pass funnel situation, but it is unlikely the Bengals will stray far from the balanced approach that has led them to their most promising start in years. Also, the Ravens are coming off a game where they shut down a previously red-hot Chargers passing offense. Cincinnati will continue to stay balanced as long as this game is competitive, with their defense likely being strong enough to keep them close or in the lead throughout this game. When they do pass, they are likely to take some shots to their star wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase (Chase is 3rd in the league among players with at least 20 targets with an average depth of target of 17.6 yards). Baltimore has given up some big plays down the field this season, and the Bengals will certainly try to find opportunities to exploit a perceived weakness, even if they aren’t throwing at a heavy clip.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore has made a lot of noise this year with their improved passing game and the continued development of Lamar Jackson, specifically showing the ability to bring his team back in negative game scripts — something he had previously failed to do. However, the Ravens remain true to their core as a run-first team despite the continued injuries to their running back stable. Through six weeks, Baltimore ranks 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and is going to lean that way whenever they can. Their ability to continue having success regardless of who is at running back relies on two things:

• Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability puts a ton of stress on the defense
• Baltimore’s offensive line is ranked 4th by PFF in run blocking

What this means is that the Ravens’ line is doing a great job opening up holes, and linebackers are forced to hold and check that Lamar doesn’t have the ball before filling those holes. That’s a tough combination for any defensive unit to deal with.

When Baltimore throws, they will take some shots on occasion. However, given the importance of this game and the likely low-scoring, competitive nature it will have, it is unlikely the Ravens will be forcing things through the air. If things aren’t clearly open for him, Lamar is more likely to tuck it and run than he is to try to make something happen against a good pass defense — Cincinnati is 8th in pass defense DVOA and has PFF’s 7th rated coverage unit. The Bengals are also likely to lean on their Cover-2 and Cover-3 defenses (which they run at a top-10 rate) in this spot, rather than playing much man-to-man and turning their backs to Lamar. In theory, that would serve to limit big plays for the Ravens’ passing game while also keeping Lamar from busting off long runs. In reality, good luck tackling Lamar in the open field. The likely heavy amounts of zone coverage will, however, force the Ravens to attack spots on the field and sit down in open windows — which should keep their passing game from having an explosive day, similar to how the Chargers’ defense played them last week.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game sets up as a classic AFC North slugfest. Both teams rank bottom-10 in the league in both situation-neutral pass rate and situational-neutral pace of play (Cincinnati actually ranks dead last in that category). Both defenses are solid, and both teams have had success this year, making it unlikely that either break from their tendencies here in what amounts to a critical game for the outcome of the AFC North. The Steelers and Browns are both 3-3, but the Browns have been torn apart by injuries, and the Steelers look nothing like a contender as they try to hide what has been their franchise cornerstone for well over a decade in Ben Roethlisberger. If the Ravens can win here, they will have a two-game lead over the Bengals and hold the tie-breaker. A Bengals win would result in a tie between these two teams at the top of the division, with Cincinnati holding the tie-breaker for the time being. Both coaches believe in their philosophies, strategies, and personnel — which means that we will likely just see both teams square up and give their best shot of “being who they are” in this critical contest. Scoring and yards are likely to be at a premium on both sides of the ball here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• One of four lopsided expected game environments on the week, but there just might be some hidden (maybe not-so-hidden) fantasy goodness here based on Detroit’s fast-paced and pass-heavy second half offense.
• Each coaching staff should be expected to keep the foot on the gas throughout this one, regardless of game flow.
• Players from this game are unlikely to go completely overlooked, but the large spread and nuanced (maybe even muted) aggression from each team lends itself to an intriguing setup, one that is likely to go under-owned relative to fantasy expectation.
• The Lions lead the league in second-half pass rate, a boon to the game environment overall.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

The best way to describe what head coach Dan Campbell is trying to instill in Detroit is “smash-mouth football.” He wants to out-effort every team on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, he was dealt a seven-deuce offsuit when it comes to the talent on his roster. Effort can only go so far in this league. A little bit of bar trivia to highlight just how bad this team has been this season: the Lions are one of only two teams who have yet to play with a lead of seven or more points through six weeks (the other one being the Washington Football Team, which surprised me as well). With the ball, Detroit opens games at a snail’s pace (28^th-ranked situation neutral pace of play) but open up their offense when they need to (second fastest second half pace of play and eighth fastest pace of play when trailing by seven or more points – good news for hunting for upside in game environments). Their situation-neutral pass rate in the first half of games is a 29^th-ranked 54%, which jumps all the way up to the most pass-heavy offense in the second half of games (75%). This, again, is excellent news when we’re looking for game environments to attack, as it gives us a good environment for their opposition to pick up extra plays run from scrimmage later in games. This also tells me that Dan Campbell and his Lions are not likely to roll over at any point in the season and will fight tooth and nail until the final whistle blows.

The Lions average just 22.8 rush attempts per game due primarily to the extreme negative game scripts they have found themselves in thus far, which is unlikely to change here. Running back D’Andre Swift has gone from lead back status to borderline elite workload over the last three weeks, averaging 75% of the offensive snaps over that time. The biggest value Swift brings to the table each week is his work through the air, having seen 42 (!!!) targets on the season and a minimum of five in each game played. Jamaal Williams saw his lowest opportunity total of the season last week at five but had seen between 10 and 18 running back opportunities in every game up to that point. The matchup on the ground yields a modest 4.085 net-adjusted line yards metric, but the Lions just lost standout offensive linemen Frank Ragnow for the season after he underwent surgery on his toe.

Through the air, the Lions lead the league in running back target rate at 27% and remain above average in tight end target rate at 21%, leaving a low 52% of the available targets to the wide receivers. With wide receiver Tyrell Williams yet to be activated from the IR with a concussion suffered in Week 1 and second-year wide receiver Quintez Cephus likely to miss the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone, the Lions are likely to be forced to start Kalif Raymond, Khadarel Hodge, and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown at the wide receiver position, who each played heavy snaps in their Week 6 contest. Tight end TJ Hockenson missed practice on Wednesday, which was likely due to rep management with his ailing knee. The primary cogs of this offense continue to be the running backs and Hockenson, which also represent the Lions best chance at moving the ball against the outside-in funnel Rams defense. 

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams play at the second-fastest situation-neutral pace of play and boast the fifth-best drive success rate in the league, leading to an average of only 61.67 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game. The low play totals should primarily be attributed to efficiency as this offense has scored at least 26 points in every game save one (a Week 4 dismantling at the hands of the Cardinals, in which they scored 20 points). The additions of quarterback Matthew Stafford and deep threat wide receiver DeSean Jackson have opened up this offense into an efficient juggernaut, giving Sean McVay the pieces to be able to hit every area of the field and keep opposing defenses off balance. The Rams below average 56% situation-neutral pass rate over the first six weeks indicates a propensity to remain balanced in all but extremely negative game scripts, which is unlikely here.

Running back Darrell Henderson has seen a minimum of 66% of the offensive snaps in every healthy game this season, with three of those games landing above 82% (82/90/94%). That robust snap rate has led to an average of 19.4 running back opportunities per game over his five healthy games. With a touchdown in all but one game, Henderson brings a solid floor and ceiling combination to the table in his best matchup of the season. Said matchup yields a healthy 4.655 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Lions defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (12 total touchdowns allowed to opposing backfields). Behind Henderson, expect recent addition Sony Michel to mix in for a modest snap rate and eight to 10 opportunities.

The Rams pass game runs primarily through Cooper Kupp, who leads the league in team target market share at 34.0%. Both primary wide receivers (Kupp and Robert Woods) share a primarily intermediate role (9.0 and 9.1 aDOT, respectively), leaving the downfield work in the hands of Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson, who typically split available snaps at a 60/30 clip. The three to six targets we can typically expect from each deep threat, paired with the same three to six target expectation for tight end Tyler Higbee, highlights the pass game dominance of Cooper Kupp in this offense, who has seen double-digit targets in every game this season (the only player in the league to see double-digit targets in every game played). The matchup with the Lions creates a situation where the Rams can basically win anywhere on the field, as the Lions have allowed a below-average 67.88% completion rate and disgusting 13.5 average yards per completion (worst in the league). 

Likeliest Game flow ::

It is likeliest we see the Rams control this game from the jump, forcing each team into a familiar game script (the 5-1 Rams playing with an established lead and the Lions forced into second-half aggression as they try and claw their way back into the game). When we then consider Detroit’s willingness to open things up in the second half of games, we’re left with a likeliest game environment that is ripe for potential fantasy goodness. Both of these coaching staffs should be expected to keep their feet on the gas regardless of game script, which further boosts the game environment overall. If ever there were a close to two-touchdown spread game that got me excited to attack from both sides, this would be it. 

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game has some sneaky upside, with a high game total and two teams that throw at an above average rate, while also playing faster than league average.
• While this game in itself has higher than perceived potential, the spread out volume nature for both offenses will make identifying potential slate-changing performances from here very difficult.
• The Eagles play calling this year has been head scratching based on their personnel and underlying statistics.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles enter this game at 2-4, coming off a 10 day break following last Thursday’s game against the Bucs. As is usually the case, struggles in Philadelphia have led to a lot of questioning in the city and media around the team. Some of those questions are very fair, however, as their approach has been an interesting one considering where their strengths in personnel and performance lie:

• The Eagles rank 3rd in rushing offense DVOA, yet they run the ball at the 10th lowest rate in the NFL. 
• Jalen Hurts is a very talented dual-threat QB, but the questions around him have always centered on his accuracy and timing in the pocket. Despite that, the Eagles are dropping him back at an above average rate and forcing him to make a lot of intermediate timing throws and deep throws into tight windows, especially on early downs. The result has been a low completion rate and a lot of long down and distances that force him to make even more difficult throws.
• The Eagles pass defense has performed very well this year (5th lowest yards per pass attempt allowed), which should allow them to focus on a more run-heavy offense but they have not taken the opportunity to do so.

At this point in the season, teams who are failing to meet expectations will often shake things up a bit in their philosophy to try to spark something. For the Eagles, coming off a  “mini-bye” following their Thursday night game in Week 6, this would be the perfect time to adjust the focus of their offense. The departure of Zach Ertz could also provide some clarity and consistency in snap rates and usage for their skill position players, and consistency in those areas could lead to better rhythm and production. Dallas Goedert will now play almost every TE snap and the Eagles trio of wide receivers (Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins) should all play most snaps as the Eagles base 11 formations should be consistent from here on out. They also have a great trio of runners in their backfield, with QB Jalen Hurts and running backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. The Raiders run defense ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed and struggled to contain the dual-threat run game of the Ravens in Week 1. Miles Sanders is an extremely talented back and the Eagles would be wise to at least *try* to get him more involved at some point before the season totally slips away from them. Sanders saw 20 opportunities (carries + targets) in a big Week 1 win against Atlanta but has only averaged 12 opportunities in the five games since. The Eagles have the 10th graded run-blocking offensive line in the NFL by PFF and could be returning All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson this week. Another data point that should push the Eagles towards the run is the Raiders have PFF’s #1 ranked pass rush and #2 ranked coverage unit through six weeks. Forcing Hurts to stand in the pocket and throw the ball 40 times here is likely a losing proposition. 

It is hard to say with certainty what Philadelphia will do this week, but what they should do is build their game plan around Sanders/Hurts on the ground while mixing in short-area passing work for Goedert and their speedy wide receivers. This would help them control the game, put Hurts in manageable 3rd downs, and get the ball out of his hands quickly to avoid sacks and turnovers. The Eagles can and should maintain their 4th fastest pace of play while shifting focus more to the run game. The added physicality dimension of running the ball while playing at a fast pace could also take a toll on the Raiders defense as the game wears on.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas rallied the troops in Week 6 for a huge divisional road win against the Broncos, following a dramatic week where they lost their coach to some ugly off-the-field circumstances. They will look to follow that up by taking care of business at home against a struggling and inconsistent Eagles team. The Raiders are quietly tied for the AFC West divisional lead. With the Chargers on bye, and the Chiefs facing a tough road matchup with the Titans, they have a chance to take control of the division. 

As explored in last week’s NFL Edge, the Raiders didn’t change much about their approach in Week 6 despite the changes to the coaching staff. The Raiders spread the ball around, throw at an above league average rate of 63%, and let Derek Carr take calculated shots down the field to attack their opponent. The matchup itself could give them some issues as they are more efficient through the air than on the ground, but the Eagles defense is also much stronger against the pass than the run. The Eagles have struggled against the potent Bucs, Cowboys, and Chiefs passing offenses, who are currently ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th in pass offense DVOA; but, they have looked great against more middling competition from the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers that would more closely resemble what the Raiders bring to the table. The Raiders will run the ball some to set up the pass and will spread things out when they throw. Occasionally, Carr will take some deep shots, but the Eagles blitz at the third-lowest rate (14.8%) in the NFL and play a lot of deep zone coverages and very little man, which should limit the chances the Raiders have to really push the ball down the field.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game sets up for a disappointing game flow and scoring environment from what its game total indicates. It reminds me in a lot of ways of the Raiders home game against the Bears from Week 5, with the visiting team having a very good passing defense and a struggling passing offense that will likely lead to a more run-based approach. It is worth noting that in the three games against non-elite offenses, the Eagles defense has given up point totals of 6 >> 17 >> 18. The likelihood of Philly turning to their ground game (which will keep the clock moving) and Las Vegas struggling to score points against a tough defense makes this game more likely to be a good football game from a real life perspective than it is for fantasy.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• I left this writeup feeling like there weren’t many spots for guaranteed points. The Cardinals are full of touchdown-reliant plays, while the Texans all carry low floors.
• The one exception to that, and likely my top interest from this game, is the Cardinals defense.
• We don’t expect the Cardinals to fail in this spot, it’s simply that they have one quarterback, two running backs, four wide receivers, and one tight end (the bright and shiny-new Zach Ertz) who all should “get theirs.”

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Is that an oxymoron? I kid, I kid. Houston’s low 56% situation-neutral pass rate and 20th ranked situation-neutral pace of play paint a fairly telling picture with respect to how Houston is trying to win games this season. In stark contrast to our exploration of the Lions, and how they are willing to open up their offense if the situation calls for it (it has called for it quite often), the Texans hold a 55% situation-neutral pass rate in the first half of their games and a 57% situation-neutral pass rate in the second half of their games. Woof city. Not only are they barely increasing their pass rates when trailing, but their pace of play only jumps four seconds when they are trailing, compared to their normal situation-neutral pace of play. Double woof. So, the antiquated coaching staff of David Culley, Tim Kelly, and Lovie Smith think that the best way for them to try and win games is to hide their inadequacies on defense through high rush rates and a slow pace of play. Okay, Pete Carroll.

The problem with their run game (from a fantasy perspective, at least) is that four running backs continue to see weekly snaps. The four-headed head-scratcher has devolved a bit into primarily a two-man show of late, with David Johnson and Mark Ingram II splitting snaps at a near-even rate in three of the previous four weeks. The game where David Johnson took the clear lead was the Week 4 shutout at the hands of the Bills, but the team turned around and handed Ingram 33 snaps to the 32 of Johnson in their Week 6 game, in which they scored a whopping three points. Riddle me this, they fed Mark Ingram 18 carries and two targets in a game they lost by 28 points. I’m confused, and you should be too. David Johnson should see additional snaps in a game they are currently projected to lose by 17.5 points and score just 15, but who knows at this point. The matchup yields a laughable 3.93 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Houston’s league-low marks (3.23).

The snap split amongst the pass-catchers is quite literally Brandin Cooks and then everyone else, as Cooks is the only player to play more than 65% of the offensive snaps with Niko Collins back in the fold. Both Collins and regular “starter” Chris Conley were limited in practice Thursday, but it seems as if it was simply to manage the health of the two. Danny Amendola practiced fully both days so far this week, furthering the muddy waters behind Cooks. The tight ends are also in muddied water, with all three of Pharoah Brown, Jordan Akins, and Antony Auclair typically playing more than 33% of the offensive snaps for an offense running 12-personnel at a 29% clip, and 13-personnel at the second highest rate in the league (second only to the Browns, who actually have a run game). As for Cooks, he holds three games of 11 or more targets and three games of seven or fewer targets through six weeks.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

We have a pretty good idea of how the Cardinals are going to attack almost any opponent at this point, with an aim to spread the opposition out horizontally and mix an uptempo offense with high rush rates and short-area passing, designed to wear the opposing defense down over the course of a game. They will also mix in a handful of deep shots to Christian Kirk, AJ Green, and Rondale Moore. It will be interesting to see how the presence of Zach Ertz affects the volume expectation of the remaining members of the offense as he holds a long history of pass-catching efficiency. For as uptempo as we picture this offense to be, the Cardinals have run “only” 65.8 plays per game, which ranks 11^th in the league. Their opponent runs only 59.0 plays per game, giving us a good idea of how many combined offensive plays to expect from this game.

The backfield continues to be relatively evenly split between Chase Edmonds and James Conner, with Edmonds typically landing in the 60-65% snap rate range, and Conner typically landing in the 40-50% snap rate range. It is worth noting that in the Cardinals 23 point victory over the Browns in Week 6, Conner out-snapped Edmonds 41 to 28. It is likely that story can be half attributed to the extreme positive game script, and half attributed to the nagging shoulder injury Edmonds has dealt with over the previous two weeks. Either way, we should expect a slight bump to Conner’s workload as the primary between-the-tackles grinder on this offense. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.53 net-adjusted line yards metric for a Cardinals offense that ranks sixth in the league in total rushing. Quarterback Kyler Murray holds a tight range of expected pass attempts, as he has landed between 30 and 36 in every game thus far. The Cardinals have landed between 61 and 69 offensive plays run from scrimmage in five of their six games, a range that is unlikely to drastically increase considering their opponent. This means we shouldn’t expect more than 32-36 pass attempts from Kyler here, with those targets likely spread between six primary pass-catchers (Hopkins, Green, Kirk, Moore, Chase Edmonds, who has at least four targets in every game this season, and newcomer Zach Ertz). This leaves the most expected volume amongst one pass-catcher, likely to be Nuk with seven to eight targets. Can he smash on those looks? Maybe, but he’s going to need to score multiple touchdowns and break a play or two in order to hit a solid price-considered ceiling. Let me be clear, this offense is highly unlikely to fail here, it is just equally as likely that no one pass-catcher sees enough volume to crush their salary multiplier.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likeliest we see the high-powered Arizona offense move the ball with ease (a massive drive success rate delta of 18 on the week, with Arizona ranking seventh on offense and Houston ranking 25th on defense) against an inferior opponent. On the other side, Houston (clearly) should struggle as Davis Mills sees yet another start (Houston ranks 31^st in drive success rate on offense). This setup is night and day when compared to the Rams/Lions game, where we can expect the Lions to up their aggression, pace, and pass numbers as the game moves on. Houston just doesn’t alter much at all, regardless of game environment, score, or opponent. That puts a pretty massive dent on this game environment overall, as we shouldn’t expect additional plays for the Cardinals, hence relying on efficiency and touchdowns from all players.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>

• The Bears are showing signs of life offensively and the maturation of Justin Fields is growing by the week, with the staff putting more on his plate and showing more trust each game.
• The Bucs continue to roll through inferior opponents and impose their will on defenses and game scripts.
• On paper, this matchup would appear to push the Bucs towards the run but, in reality, this is not a shy away matchup for their #1 rated passing offense.
• The Bucs should approach their implied team total regardless of how the game plays out, while the game as a whole has the potential for fireworks if the Bears can have some offensive success.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

JM did a fantastic job in his Tuesday pod talking about how to dig deeper into box scores and look for things that may not be readily apparent. Much has been made about the Bears run-heavy offense this season, particularly since Justin Fields took over as their starting QB. If you just glazed over the box score from Week 6, you would think it was the same old story for the Bears as Fields attempted 27 passes with the Bears running the ball 26 times. However, if you dig deeper and/or watched the game, there are some different takeaways that we can find:

• On paper, the Bears ran the ball 14 times and passed 14 times in the first half. However, three of those runs were scrambles by Fields on called pass plays, one was a shovel pass to Cole Kmet that was ruled a backward pass and therefore scored as a run, and there was a pass interference penalty on Green Bay that doesn’t show up in the box score. So, in reality, the Bears called 19 pass plays to 10 run plays in the first half of a competitive game (halftime score was 10-7).
• After going a bit more run-heavy during the 3rd quarter, Fields led the Bears on an impressive 4th quarter drive to cut the Packers lead to 17-14. On that drive, Fields was 5/5 for 64 yards and a TD, also adding a 14-yard scramble. Fields also led the Bears on another drive, after the Packers scored to make the score 24-14, quickly taking the Bears down to the Packers 32-yard line before a couple of sacks short-circuited things and effectively ended the game.

Actually watching the game and understanding the box score shows us that the Bears are starting to show trust in Fields earlier in games and that he is getting more comfortable pushing the ball down the field and playing in situations where the team needs to be more aggressive late. Both of those takeaways are very good signs for Fields’ development as a QB and will be critical to this week for the Bears. 

Don’t get it twisted, the Bears certainly do want to be able to run the ball and have that as part of their identity. However, this week, against the Bucs top-5 run defense, that won’t be much of an option. Opponents barely even try to run on the Bucs — the last three weeks their opponents have had a combined 22 running back carries (six for the Patriots, seven for the Dolphins, nine for the Eagles). Even the week before against the Rams it was a similar story — the Rams ran the ball 22 times total but threw it at a 35-12 pass-to-run ratio before building a three-score lead in the second half. The Bears will either follow the game plan that every other team has shown and turn very pass-heavy early on, or they will try forcing the run early, likely with very little success, and be forced to abandon the run altogether once they fall behind. Last week’s play-calling and usage suggests they are trusting Fields more and will be more likely to attack the Bucs beat-up secondary than most people will be expecting.

How Tampa Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have a very good defense, ranking 7th in the league in DVOA while statistically being stronger against the pass than the run. However, the Bucs are not a team that is blindly going to be forced into a particular mode of functioning by an inferior opponent, which the Bears clearly are. This matchup is similar to the last two games for the Bucs — a solid defense who rates better against the pass than the run. Over the course of those two games, the Bucs held similar to their usual tendencies with 67% and 60% pass rates, respectively. We should expect more of the same here.

The Bucs will run often enough to keep the defense honest and open up the passing game, but this offense is built on Tom Brady and his incredible receiving corps. The Bears rate well in pass defense by DVOA, but have not played a schedule of particularly explosive passing offenses — something that shows up in their 30th ranked coverage unit by PFF grades. Those two statistics combined tell a story that the Bears pass defense is very beatable if they face a team with a variety of weapons and aggressive tendencies, two categories that the Bucs clearly check the boxes in. Tampa Bay will try to win simply by being themselves — aggressively attacking their opponent to build early leads and maintaining their aggression to step on the throat. Top-tier teams like the Bucs impose their will in matchups like these and we should expect nothing short of that from the defending Super Bowl champions here. They are #1 in the NFL in pass offense DVOA and yards per pass attempt, they are going to do what they do here.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Buccaneers will almost certainly control the game flow in this spot as they have superior talent, chemistry, and coaching. Assuming they are able to have early offensive success, they will be in control from the start. In a scenario where they are slow out of the gate, the Bears will be unlikely to have any offensive success if they focus too much on the run. The Bears will need to be more aggressive and pass-heavy than their previous tendencies, which should lead to a slightly faster pace and more play volume. If the Bears are not able to have success through the air, they will have short possessions resulting in the Bucs having the ball more and being able to score, rack up play volume, and press the gas on this game even faster. If the Bears do have success through the air early and can keep it close or take a lead, the Bucs will feel that pressure and be even more likely to attack and play aggressively early on and deeper into the game. In either outcome, we are likely to see a good-to-great game from the Bucs offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense will either provide an above-average (by their standards) performance or the Bucs defense will have a field day, with the Bears receivers still likely to see increased usage in a rout.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::