Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
17.75) at

Patriots (
24.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
10th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
16th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
8th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
25th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game could mirror their prior Week 2 affair
  • The Jets offense is expected to struggle
  • The Patriots passing volume will likely be limited by game flow
  • The best DFS play from this game is a defense

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 1-4 Jets haven’t been good this year but they have shown signs of life in the last two weeks. After starting an uncompetitive 0-4, they stunned the Titans in overtime, before losing a one-score game to the Falcons. The Jets play slow when it’s close (25th situational neutral pace), and slow when they’re losing (18th pace when trailing), but speed up when they’re winning (2nd fastest pace when leading). Ya. That doesn’t make much sense. The Jets are still searching for their identity as Zach Wilson figures out the NFL.

The Jets have figured one thing out though, they are a lot more competitive when they reel in Zach Wilson. This strategy makes a lot of sense since Wilson has yet to complete an NFL game without throwing the ball to the other team. It’s hard to win games when your QB has thrown nine interceptions in five games. Expect the Jets to try and play “hide the INT machine QB” until the scoreboard forces them out of their game plan.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Bill Belichick’s Patriots come into their second game with the confused Jets at a disappointing 2-4. They’ve absorbed losses against the Dolphins/Saints/Bucs/Cowboys while only narrowly defeating the Texans. Their lone confident victory came against these Jets in Week 2. If the Patriots play the Jets every week, it’ll be like Brady never left! The Patriots did lose three of those four games by one score, dropping last week’s game in heartbreaking fashion in overtime. The Patriots aren’t far away from being 5-1 but I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way in their locker room right now.  

Belichick is an adaptable coach that is willing to relentlessly attack the relative weakness of a defense. The Jets can be attacked through the air (23rd in DVOA) or on the ground (17th in DVOA), which will allow the Patriots to proceed in whichever manner they see fit. Belichick has shown enough trust in Mac Jones to come out passing. There is a good chance they mirror their Week 2 game plan, leaning pass-heavy early, before using their running game to salt the game away in the second half.  

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Patriots have been installed as a confident seven-point favorite in a home game they can’t afford to lose. The most likely game flow is highly likely in this one as Belichick must win to keep any playoffs hopes alive. There isn’t a reason to believe the Pats will deviate from their Week 2 game plan. This game is likely to play out with the Patriots showing aggression early, before riding their running game to an easy victory in the second half.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • Rematch of W2 when NE won 25-6 in NY
  • Last matchup was 42 pt total (31 final) and this game is set at 42.5 total

Mac Jones:

  • Jones passing: 281:1 // 186:0 // 270:1:3 // 275:2:1 // 231:1:1 // 229:2:1
  • In NE’s two wins, Jones has thrown just 30 pass att in each
  • In NE’s three losses, Jones has thrown 39, 51, 40, 21 pass att
  • NE led for the majority of the 21 att game vs DAL
  • NE is a 7-pt favorite
  • Jones 186:0 game vs NYJ was his lowest output of the season, with 30 Jones pass att to 23 RB rush att
  • NYJ rank 23rd in def pass DVOA
  • Matt Ryan is the only QB over 300 yds vs NYJ

NE WRs:

  • NE’s highest scoring WR by game: Agholor (18.2) // Meyers (7.8) // Bourne (21.6) // Meyers (16.8) // Meyers (9.6) // Bourne (14.5)
  • Meyers has still yet to score a TD in his career after one was nullified in W6
  • Only three WRs have 60+ yds vs NYJ: Moore (80) // Patrick (96) // Rogers (63)
  • Only 2 WRs have scored vs NYJ this year

NE TEs:

  • The Jets had been solid vs TEs through four weeks vs Arnold, Henry, Fant, Firkser, but got eviscerated by ATL’s TEs in London: Pitts (9:119:1), Hurst (4:40:1), Smith (3:30)
  • Route share on Jones dropbacks: Jonnu (48%, 42%, 27%, 38%, 19%, 43%) // Henry (58%, 76%, 68%, 64%, 65%, 83%)
  • Targets: Jonnu (5, 5, 6, 5, 2, 2) // Henry (3, 4, 6, 5, 8, 2)
  • aDOT: Jonnu (3.9) // Henry (8.5)
  • RZ targets: Jonnu (7) // Henry (3); Henry has TD in three straight games
  • Henry has 30+ yds in 5/6 games (31, 42, 36, 32, 75, 25)
  • Jets have allowed the 9th highest yds/att to TEs

NE RBs:

  • Harris with 15+ rush att in career: 17:100 // 16:102:1 // 22:121 // 16:80 // 23:100 // 16:62:1 // 18:101:1
  • RBs with 15+ rush att vs NYJ: CMC (21:98) // Harris (16:62:1) // Gordon (18:62:1) // Henry (33:157:1)
  • Jets have allowed 6 RB rush TDs in five games
  • Backfield rec yds vs NYJ: CAR (93) // NE (47) // DEN (54) // TEN (94) // ATL (68)
  • White’s tg count (7 & 6) hasn’t been fully matched by the likes of Bolden or Stevenson

Zach Wilson:

  • Wilson was intercepted four times in the first matchup
  • Wilson has 5 TDs to 9 INT on season
  • Wilson has been sacked 18 times in 5 games

Corey Davis:

  • Top WR score by week: Davis (26.7) // Berrios (14.3) // Davis (9.1 // 24.2 // 8.5)
  • Davis finished with 2 rec for 8 yds vs NE in W2
  • Eight WRs have 60+ yds vs NE: Parker (81), Waddle (61:1) // Berrios (73) // Evans (75), Brown (63) // Moore (109:1), Conley (84:1) // Lamb (149:2)

NYJ RBs:

  • Kamara’s 20.8 DK pts are the most allowed to a RB by NE this year
  • Even with TDs in back to back weeks & just over 10 rush att/g over last four, Carter hasn’t topped 15 DK pts on the season