Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Miami leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 69%, while Atlanta ranks eighth in the league at 64%.
- Miami ranks third in the league in first-half situation-neutral pace of play while Atlanta ranks eighth.
- These teams combine to allow 130.2 plays per game, while the offenses combine for 128.9 plays per game.
- We’re liable to see 135+ offensive plays run from scrimmage here, which gives this game environment sneaky fantasy appeal.
- Both teams rank 29th or worse in defensive drive success rate allowed, 27th or worse in points allowed per drive, and 20th or worse in turnovers forced while each offense ranks in the middle of the pack in turnovers per drive.
- These offenses combine for under 44 rush attempts per game.
How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::
On the surface, Atlanta appears to be operating a heavy two-tight end offense (league-low 28% 11-personnel alignments), but we know that “tight end” Kyle Pitts has been used heavily out of the slot and out wide (79% of his offensive snaps have come from either the slot or split out wide). We also know that “running back” Cordarrelle Patterson has played only 135 total offensive snaps and that 51 of those have come with him either split out wide or out of the slot. Basically, the Falcons have had to turn mud into water with the offensive personnel available on their active roster, not to mention the absence of Calvin Ridley for personal reasons in Week 5 and the extended absence of wide receiver Russell Gage. On the season, Atlanta ranks eighth in both situation-neutral pace of play and situation-neutral pass rate, with quarterback Matt Ryan attempting 35 or more passes in every game this year (with three games above 42).
The backfield has also been a Frankenstein effort, piecemealing the combination of Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson into a backfield in the loosest sense of the word. Mike Davis has surprisingly scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season but has yet to demonstrate any level of ceiling. He has opportunity counts on the season of 21, 16, 16, 15, and 18, with 24 targets to his name. Patterson has played far fewer snaps but has seen at least six targets in all but one game. The two have combined for seven total touchdowns on the year, five of which have come through the air.
We shouldn’t expect half of the team’s receiving touchdowns to continue to come through the running backs, which screams positive regression for both Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, and, to a lesser extent, Russell Gage. We should expect the Falcons to score here and it is likeliest for those scores to come through the air, leaving both Pitts and Ridley in an excellent position to improve upon their modest to-date production. That likelihood gains further traction should Byron Jones and/or Xavien Howard miss their second consecutive game this week. Head coach Brian Flores historically utilizes heavy blitz rates on second and third downs, with high levels of cover-0, man coverages on later downs. This tilts the expected success rates through the air towards an already low intended air yards average, meaning the Falcons are likeliest to achieve success over the areas of the field they are already attacking heavily.
How Miami Will Try To Win ::
The Dolphins have made good on their obvious plans to focus on the passing game after their offseason moves, ranking first in the NFL in situation-neutral pass rate over the first six weeks. They have played at the league’s third-fastest first-half situation-neutral pace of play and the fifth-fastest overall pace of play to start the year. The overall offensive production has been heavily influenced by injuries up to this point, with all of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, wide receivers DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and Preston Williams, and cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard all missing time. The injury information we currently have out of Dolphins camp is rather limited considering the team only held a walkthrough on Wednesday. Any absences from the aforementioned pieces are likely to either narrow the expected target distribution or increase the likelihood of pass production against in the case of the cornerbacks (who each missed last week with multiple issues).
The Dolphins backfield is a veritable mess. All of Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Malcolm Brown typically see enough snaps to sap the life from all parties, which came to its most ugly head last week when no back saw more than 36% of the available offensive snaps. There also seems to be no rhyme or reason for the changing dynamics of the backfield. What we know is this: Gaskin has seen exactly five or six targets in four of six games, Ahmed has seen exactly two or three targets in five of six games, and Malcolm Brown has four total targets on the season. Gaskin has seen double-digit rushing attempts in only one game this year, while Ahmed and Brown typically combine for 10-12 rush attempts of their own. The bottom line is matchup almost doesn’t matter here, but the matchup yields a mediocre 4.12 net-adjusted line yards metric, held down by Miami’s 29th-ranked marks.
The primary appeal (and primary means for attack) from this offense comes through the air. On the season, Tua holds a moderate 8.0 intended air yards per pass attempt and 6.2 completed air yards per completion, which is highly influenced by a small sample size and injuries to his pass-catchers. Furthering the current unknowns are injuries to Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, and Preston Williams, the latter two of which could return this week. The big picture, though, is that Miami leads the league in 12-personnel alignments at 46%, with Mike Gesicki in a route on a robust 187 total pass attempts this season. Jaylen Waddle should see 85-95% of the offensive snaps regardless of the statuses of Parker and Williams, while Albert Wilson is likely limited to 11-personnel alignments (only 45% on the season).
Likeliest Game flow ::
This game yields an interesting dynamic in that each defense struggles to prevent sustained drives, generate turnovers, and suppress points while each offense chooses to operate with pace and elevated pass rates. Basically, we have everything we need in our quest for expected fantasy goodness. Furthermore, based on the offensive tendencies of each team, actual game flow means less to the ultimate outcome for each team’s respective plans of attack than it would in a standard game. The likeliest game flow has this game playing close throughout, with each team tilting their offensive game plans towards an aerial attack. This presents an interesting situation where the chances of a shootout are much higher than the field is likely to give credit for, while the floors of each team’s primary play-makers are higher than a standard game as well due to the defensive deficiencies of each team. I expect the range of outcomes of primary play-makers from this game to not match overall ownership, presenting us with solid leverage opportunities.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Alex88 >>
- 5th highest Vegas total on the week
- ATL ranks 3rd in adjusted seconds per play (28.0)
- MIA ranks 19th (30.0)
- MIA ranks 2nd in adjusted pass rate (67%)
- ATL ranks 13th (60.6%)
- ATL chose to take their bye after their London game
- MIA elected not to take their bye after last week’s last second loss to the Jags in London
- Ryan ranks 11th in PFF passing grade
- He’s scored 20+ DK pts in 3 out of 5 games
- DK log: 7.36 // 22.3 // 16.62 // 29.02 // 24.58
- MIA ranks 23rd against QBs (23)
ATL Passing Attack
- ATL uses 11 personnel at a league low 28% (average is 59%)
- 12 personnel usage ranks 2nd (37%)
- Snap share: Kyle Pitts 74.2% // Calvin Ridley 70.3% // Olamide Zaccheaus 64.2% // Hayden Hurst 52.5% // Tajae Sharpe 33.9%
- Target share: Ridley 20.3% // Pitts 17.4% // Zaccheaus 8.2% // Hurst 7.2% // Sharpe 4.8%
- Even with a bye and a missed game, Ridley ranks 23rd in air yards among all WRs
- His target share ranks 10th, air yard market share ranks 2nd, and WOPR ranks 4th
- Ridley’s salary has fallen from $7,900 in Week 1 down to $6,600 this week
- The average DK salary for the six WRs on the main slate that rank ahead of Ridley in target share is $7,650
- Ridley’s DK log: 10.1 // 19.3 // 14.1 // 15
- Zaccheaus has yet to exceed 12.5 DK pts this year
- MIA ranks 29th in DK ppg to WRs (45.1)
- Pitts ranks 6th in rec yds, 6th in air yards, 9th in target share, 2nd in air yard market share, and 6th in WOPR among all TEs
- His salary started at $4,400 in Week 1 but is up to $5,900 this week
- DK log: 7.1 // 12.3 // 5.5 // 9 // 29.9
- Hurst also had a season high day against the NYJ in London (13 DK pts)
- But he’s scored less than 7 in all other games
- MIA ranks 23rd against TEs (16.4)
- Snap share: Mike Davis 66.1% // Cordarrelle Patterson 39.7%
- Target share: Patterson 15% // Davis 11.6%
- Touches per game: Davis 16 // Patterson 13.2
- Davis’s salary has stayed between $5,100-5,500 all season
- Davis ranks 5th in goal line share and RBOPR
- His DK log: 10.2 // 13.3 // 11 // 10.6 // 13.1
- Patterson’s salary in Week 1 was $3,700
- His Week 7 salary is $6,300
- DK log: 8.7 // 23.9 // 16.2 // 34.6 // 18.4
- MIA ranks 29th against RBs (31.6)
- Tua ranks 24th in PFF passing grade
- In two full games, he’s scored 17.18 and 25.36 DK pts
- QBs against ATL are averaging 22.5 DK ppg (22nd)
- DK log for opposing QBs: Jalen Hurts 28.76 // Tom Brady 30.64 // Daniel Jones 16.54 // Taylor Heinicke 27.9 // Zach Wilson 8.98
MIA Passing Attack
- MIA utilizes 11 and 12 personnel at virtually even rates (45% to 46%)
- Their 46% 12 personnel usage is more than double league average, and by far the most in the league
- Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 80.6% // Mike Gesicki 64.6% // DeVante Parker 54.5% // Durham Smythe 54% // Mack Hollins 33.9% // Albert Wilson 31.8%
- Target share: Waddle 21.1% // Gesicki 17.7% // Parker 13.5%
- Waddle had 13 targets in London, the second time he’s that mark this season
- His salary has risen $2k since his Week 1 debut at $3,600
- DK log: 16.1 // 11.6 // 17.8 // 6.3 // 5.3 // 29
- Parker has missed the past two weeks but may return this week
- Parker ranks 10th in air yard market share and 19th in WOPR from his Weeks 1-4 production
- DK log: 12.1 // 9.2 // 8.2 // 17.7
- ATL ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (40.9)
- Gesicki’s salary has risen $700 since Week 1
- Despite a goose egg in Week 1, he ranks 4th in rec yds, 4th in air yards, 8th in target share, 4th in air yard market share, and 5th in WOPR among all TEs
- DK log: 7.1 // 18.6 // 16.7 // 8.3 // 22.5
- ATL ranks 14th against TEs (10.9)
- Snap share: Myles Gaskin 49.4% // Malcolm Brown 32%
- Target share: Gaskin 13.5% // Salvon Ahmed 5.5%
- Touches per game: Gaskin 10.5 // Brown 5.3 // Ahmed 4.7
- Gaskin’s 31.9 DK pts @ TB in Week 5 were the only instance of a MIA RB scoring 13+ so far this year
- ATL ranks 21st against RBs (26.7)