Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
23) at

Giants (
20)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
20th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
27th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
5th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
27th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
30th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
19th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
11th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
31st DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Giants run a fast-paced, inefficient offense
  • The poor game environment is the biggest obstacle to DFS success 
  • Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson cost $10,800 to stack on DK
  • Chuba Hubbard is underpriced for his role in a strong matchup

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers enter this game a disappointing 3-3 after starting the year in a dominant 3-0 fashion. The rub? The Panthers played the Jets, Saints, and Texans in their first three games. Since their unbeaten beginning, the Panthers have dropped three straight games against better competition losing close contests to the Cowboys/Eagles/Vikings. That lights out Panthers defense that gave up ten points a game to start the year failed to hold any of the Cowboys/Eagles/Vikings to under 21. The Panthers were underrated to begin the year, overrated after their first three games, and they are currently sitting around what their expected outcome should be the rest of the way.

Matt Rhule is in a tough spot sitting at 3-3 after expectations were artificially inflated by the Panthers early season schedule. His best player, Christian McCafferty, hit the IR and is out until at least Week 9. Since the loss of CMC, the Panthers have been struggling to find their identity on offense. They play at an average situational neutral pace (17th) but are willing to speed up when losing (7th place) and slow down when winning (23rd). The Panthers want to run a balanced offense and “see how the game goes” before deciding on their level of aggression. The Giants are weaker against the run (27th in DVOA) than the pass (22nd in DVOA) but the gap isn’t drastic, and I doubt it would influence the Panthers approach anyway. Expect the Panthers to start balanced, before deciding on how they want to attack, based on what is working and the game situation.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 1-5 Giants have been a disappointment against their moderate expectations to start the year. No one had this team as a contender but their roster has enough talent to compete. The Giants coaching staff is certainly hoping for an “injury mulligan,” and while the G-men have seen more than their fair share of the training room, that isn’t the reason they are underperforming their talent level. The Giants are a poorly coached team led by Patriots disciple Joe Judge (all the Patriots coaches are overrated due to results achieved with the greatest QB of all time) and former Jerry Jones lap dog, Jason Garrett. The Giants are playing fast (7th situational neutral pace), they play even faster when they’re losing (3rd pace when trailing), but they are running a lot of inefficient plays. The Panthers are easier to run on (18th in DVOA) than to pass on (7th in DVOA) creating a mini-run funnel. It would make sense for the Giants to probe for weaknesses on the ground but since Jason Garret doesn’t know whether to sneeze or fart most weeks, don’t expect a significant game plan adjustment. Coming off two blowout losses, expect the G-Men to try and throw the ball early in hopes of showing their annoyed home crowd that they still have fight left in them, rather than attempting to attack the strategic weakness of their opponent.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a low 43 point total which reflects the lackluster scoring environment expected. The Panthers opened as 2.5 favorites before being quickly bet through the three. The half-point line move is significant because of the number, and if the line continues to three and a half, that would be an indicator that the Panthers are going to control this game. The most likely game flow is that both teams attempt to stay balanced while waiting for their opponent to force a reaction. The game should stay close, with the Panthers pulling away in the second half and forcing more aggression from the Giants.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • The Giants have scored under 20 offensive pts in 13/22 games with Garrett as OC
  • NYG RB/WR starters to leave inj early since W3: Shep & Slayton // Barkley & Golladay // Toney & Board
  • NYG’s original WR starters haven’t played full game together since W2

Daniel Jones:

  • In 22 Garrett games, Jones/McCoy/Glennon have scored 1 TD or less in 15 of them
  • QB TDs vs CAR: 2 // 1 // 1 // 4 // 2 // 3
  • QB pass yds vs CAR: 258 // 111 // 168 // 188 // 198 // 373
  • CAR has the 6th most sacks (16) & 19th most forced TOs (6)
  • After only throwing 1 Hail Mary INT through 5 weeks, Jones turned the ball over four times vs LAR

NYG WRs:

  • Every WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR has needed 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen)
  • Shepard’s 3 full games in 2021: 7:113:1 // 9:94 // 10:76
  • CAR has allowed the 3rd fewest completed air yds
  • NYG WRs aDOT: Shep (8.1) // Slayton (14.4) // Golladay (13.4)

Devontae Booker:

  • Booker without Saquon: 16:42:1, 3:16:1 // 12:41, 4:28 (Penny scored TD)
  • CAR ranks 18th in defensive rush DVOA
  • Top RB yds vs CAR: Ty Johnson (26) // Kamara (30) // Ingram (20) // Zeke (143), Pollard (67) // Sanders (51) // Dalvin (143)

Sam Darnold:

  • Darnold has nearly as many 300-yd pass games with CAR (3) in six games as he did in three seasons with NYJ (4)
  • QB yds:TDs vs NYG: 264:2 // 336:2 // 243:2 // 226:1 // 302:3 // 251:4
  • NYG rank 22nd in defensive pass DVOA
  • Darnold DK pts (def pass DVOA rk): 20.1 // 22.9 // 28.3 // 36.5 // 9.1 // 17.1
  • 207:1:1

CAR WRs:

  • In Robby Anderson’s best game this year (W1), he caught just one deep pass for TD
  • He has not topped 50 yds since, and his highest DK score is 10.1 DK pts on a 3 rec for 11 yds, TD game last week
  • He somehow only trails Moore in targets 29 to 32 over the last three weeks (9.7 tg/g)
  • Moore has between 5-8 rec in every game
  • Moore has just one game below 70 total yds: 94 // 79 // 125 // 119 // 38 // 79
  • Top WRs vs NYG: Jeudy (6:72) // McLaurin (11:107:1) // Ridley (8:61) // Lamb (4:84:1), Cooper (3:60:1) // Kupp (9:130:2), Woods (2:31:1)
  • NYG have been killed by TEs, but Thomas is still running barely over 50% routes last 3

Chuba Hubbard:

  • RB rush att vs NYG: 25 // 17 // 19 // 33 // 35 // 30
  • Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16
  • RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120) // Zeke (112), Pollard (103) // Henderson (107)
  • Hubbard has 70+ yds in 3 of last 4: 79 // 71 // 134 // 65
  • NYG have allowed 4 RB rush TDs & 2 RB rec TDs, with Zeke & Hendy combining for 4 of the 6
  • Hubbard scored his first TD last week (1st att inside-5; CMC had 2)