Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is probably the biggest game of the Zac Taylor era in Cincinnati, with the winner of this game taking control of the AFC North.

• These teams are a combined 9-3 with all three of the losses coming in overtime. We should expect a highly competitive game.

• Both teams are strong defensively and rank bottom-10 in pass rate, setting up a classic AFC North slugfest.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals continued their run-heavy tendencies of 2021 last week against the Lions, running the ball more often than they passed for the third time in six games. When the season started, it was reasonable to expect the Bengals to pass at the high rate they had last year, considering they added another explosive weapon in Ja’Marr Chase. However, the Bengals switched course and are likely to continue their winning recipe for the foreseeable future. A franchise that has struggled for a long time and been the brunt of many jokes, the Bengals are a legitimate team this year behind a top-10 defense and a balanced offense that can be explosive when it needs to be. The Bengals are 4-2 but could very easily be 6-0 as the Vikings needed a 53-yard field goal as time expired in regulation to force overtime, and the Bengals missed multiple field goals that would have won the game against the Packers.

Baltimore is 3rd in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt while ranking 26th in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed. In theory, this creates a classic pass funnel situation, but it is unlikely the Bengals will stray far from the balanced approach that has led them to their most promising start in years. Also, the Ravens are coming off a game where they shut down a previously red-hot Chargers passing offense. Cincinnati will continue to stay balanced as long as this game is competitive, with their defense likely being strong enough to keep them close or in the lead throughout this game. When they do pass, they are likely to take some shots to their star wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase (Chase is 3rd in the league among players with at least 20 targets with an average depth of target of 17.6 yards). Baltimore has given up some big plays down the field this season, and the Bengals will certainly try to find opportunities to exploit a perceived weakness, even if they aren’t throwing at a heavy clip.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Baltimore has made a lot of noise this year with their improved passing game and the continued development of Lamar Jackson, specifically showing the ability to bring his team back in negative game scripts — something he had previously failed to do. However, the Ravens remain true to their core as a run-first team despite the continued injuries to their running back stable. Through six weeks, Baltimore ranks 29th in situation-neutral pass rate and is going to lean that way whenever they can. Their ability to continue having success regardless of who is at running back relies on two things:

• Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability puts a ton of stress on the defense
• Baltimore’s offensive line is ranked 4th by PFF in run blocking

What this means is that the Ravens’ line is doing a great job opening up holes, and linebackers are forced to hold and check that Lamar doesn’t have the ball before filling those holes. That’s a tough combination for any defensive unit to deal with.

When Baltimore throws, they will take some shots on occasion. However, given the importance of this game and the likely low-scoring, competitive nature it will have, it is unlikely the Ravens will be forcing things through the air. If things aren’t clearly open for him, Lamar is more likely to tuck it and run than he is to try to make something happen against a good pass defense — Cincinnati is 8th in pass defense DVOA and has PFF’s 7th rated coverage unit. The Bengals are also likely to lean on their Cover-2 and Cover-3 defenses (which they run at a top-10 rate) in this spot, rather than playing much man-to-man and turning their backs to Lamar. In theory, that would serve to limit big plays for the Ravens’ passing game while also keeping Lamar from busting off long runs. In reality, good luck tackling Lamar in the open field. The likely heavy amounts of zone coverage will, however, force the Ravens to attack spots on the field and sit down in open windows — which should keep their passing game from having an explosive day, similar to how the Chargers’ defense played them last week.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game sets up as a classic AFC North slugfest. Both teams rank bottom-10 in the league in both situation-neutral pass rate and situational-neutral pace of play (Cincinnati actually ranks dead last in that category). Both defenses are solid, and both teams have had success this year, making it unlikely that either break from their tendencies here in what amounts to a critical game for the outcome of the AFC North. The Steelers and Browns are both 3-3, but the Browns have been torn apart by injuries, and the Steelers look nothing like a contender as they try to hide what has been their franchise cornerstone for well over a decade in Ben Roethlisberger. If the Ravens can win here, they will have a two-game lead over the Bengals and hold the tie-breaker. A Bengals win would result in a tie between these two teams at the top of the division, with Cincinnati holding the tie-breaker for the time being. Both coaches believe in their philosophies, strategies, and personnel — which means that we will likely just see both teams square up and give their best shot of “being who they are” in this critical contest. Scoring and yards are likely to be at a premium on both sides of the ball here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::