Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The Packers have been quietly taking care of business since an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Saints and now sit at 5-1 with a two game lead in their division.
• Washington continues to battle injuries among their skill players and a disappointing defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt.
• These teams operate on different ends of the spectrum in terms of pace of play. Ironically, the stronger team (Green Bay) plays at a slower pace while the inferior team (Washington) plays faster. Green Bay is more likely to drag the game’s total snaps and pace down than Washington is to force a faster pace.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has had a brutal schedule to date with spots against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills already in their rearview. A trip to Lambeau will provide another big obstacle for a team that entered the season with high expectations and has so far disappointed. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has come crashing back to earth recently. After some good performances early in his time as the starter, he has combined to average a measly 5.4 yards per pass attempt against the Saints and Chiefs the last two weeks. The current injury state of Washington’s skill position players is certainly not helping his cause, but this is something we will often see with backup level quarterbacks as their opponents get more film on them and data on their tendencies. With matchups on tap against the Packers, Broncos, and Buccaneers, Washington should emerge from this stretch with a clear view on exactly where Heinicke falls in their long-term plans.

Looking at how Washington will attack this game, they are likely to have a balanced attack that the specifics of will depend on the health of their playmakers. Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, who are clearly their best skill players, are both tending to difficult lower-body injuries and missed practice on Wednesday after being very ineffective in Week 6. The bright spot for Washington’s offense has been their offensive line, which is the 3rd graded unit by PFF in pass blocking and also ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. It will be critical for Washington to continue their offensive line success and protect Heinicke to prevent him from making mistakes that would let the game get away from them. Gibson may miss this game and, if he is active, will likely not be his usual explosive self as he deals with a stress fracture in his shin that prevented him from finishing the game against the Chiefs. As a result, Washington will likely not be able to lean on the run in this game to the level they would like to. Expect a mix of some short-area passing with some intermediate shots being taken on early downs to try and give Heinicke more manageable situations on 2nd and 3rd down. Due to the injuries they are dealing with, Washington is likely to need to do some creative things to sustain drives. They will also have to be focused on successful drives early in this game as possessions will be at a premium against a slow-paced and efficient Green Bay team.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

After an embarrassing start to the season against the Saints, the Packers offense has been averaging 28.2 points per game over the last five weeks. Now they get a matchup against a Washington defense that has given up 29 or more points in five straight games. Frankly, the Packers 28.75 implied team total feels very low in this spot. The one part of the Washington defense that still has some bite is their talented defensive line that has the #2 rated pass rush by PFF this season. Unfortunately, Washington also has PFF’s 31st-rated coverage unit, and the Packers’ offensive line is rated 9th in pass blocking grades, which should allow them to give Aaron Rodgers enough time to pick on them whenever he feels like it.

Rodgers and the Packers will do what they do here — play sound, balanced football, and bleed the clock. In matchups like this, Rodgers is likely to do a lot of damage on limited volume against Washington’s 28th rated DVOA pass defense. The Packers have shown no interest in moving away from their balanced to run-heavy approach, and a matchup against a struggling Football Team certainly won’t force their hand. Rodgers will definitely take his shots against this secondary, but he will be so efficient when he throws that it may limit the passing offense’s volume. This is a team on a mission who will play at their typical methodical pace and try to get out of here in one piece once they feel the game is in hand. Despite the presence of their MVP quarterback, the Packers play at the 6th slowest situation-neutral pace and also throw the ball at below the league average rate in neutral situations.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Packers should control this game from the start. The defending MVP against a pass defense that is currently dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed is a recipe for trouble. With the Packers likely to have success from the start and Washington having so many question marks on their offense, it is likely that this game is controlled by the Packers — which means it will be slow-paced. Shorter drives that end in punts for Washington mean the Packers have the ball more and can milk the clock on long, sustained drives that allow them to gradually build a substantial lead. While Washington has played at a relatively fast pace (6th in situation-neutral pace of play), their likely lack of efficiency will keep them from pushing the pace in this spot.

DFS+ Interpretation ::