Kickoff Sunday, Oct 24th 1:00pm Eastern

19.5) at

Packers (

Over/Under 47.5


Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
12th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
25th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
10th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
19th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
18th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
17th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
23rd DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • The Packers have been quietly taking care of business since an embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Saints and now sit at 5-1 with a two game lead in their division.
  • Washington continues to battle injuries among their skill players and a disappointing defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt.
  • These teams operate on different ends of the spectrum in terms of pace of play. Ironically, the stronger team (Green Bay) plays at a slower pace while the inferior team (Washington) plays faster. Green Bay is more likely to drag the game’s total snaps and pace down than Washington is to force a faster pace.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has had a brutal schedule to date with spots against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills already in their rearview. A trip to Lambeau will provide another big obstacle for a team that entered the season with high expectations and has so far disappointed. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has come crashing back to earth recently. After some good performances early in his time as the starter, he has combined to average a measly 5.4 yards per pass attempt against the Saints and Chiefs the last two weeks. The current injury state of Washington’s skill position players is certainly not helping his cause, but this is something we will often see with backup level quarterbacks as their opponents get more film on them and data on their tendencies. With matchups on tap against the Packers, Broncos, and Buccaneers, Washington should emerge from this stretch with a clear view on exactly where Heinicke falls in their long-term plans.

Looking at how Washington will attack this game, they are likely to have a balanced attack that the specifics of will depend on the health of their playmakers. Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, who are clearly their best skill players, are both tending to difficult lower-body injuries and missed practice on Wednesday after being very ineffective in Week 6. The bright spot for Washington’s offense has been their offensive line, which is the 3rd graded unit by PFF in pass blocking and also ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. It will be critical for Washington to continue their offensive line success and protect Heinicke to prevent him from making mistakes that would let the game get away from them. Gibson may miss this game and, if he is active, will likely not be his usual explosive self as he deals with a stress fracture in his shin that prevented him from finishing the game against the Chiefs. As a result, Washington will likely not be able to lean on the run in this game to the level they would like to. Expect a mix of some short-area passing with some intermediate shots being taken on early downs to try and give Heinicke more manageable situations on 2nd and 3rd down. Due to the injuries they are dealing with, Washington is likely to need to do some creative things to sustain drives. They will also have to be focused on successful drives early in this game as possessions will be at a premium against a slow-paced and efficient Green Bay team.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

After an embarrassing start to the season against the Saints, the Packers offense has been averaging 28.2 points per game over the last five weeks. Now they get a matchup against a Washington defense that has given up 29 or more points in five straight games. Frankly, the Packers 28.75 implied team total feels very low in this spot. The one part of the Washington defense that still has some bite is their talented defensive line that has the #2 rated pass rush by PFF this season. Unfortunately, Washington also has PFF’s 31st-rated coverage unit, and the Packers’ offensive line is rated 9th in pass blocking grades, which should allow them to give Aaron Rodgers enough time to pick on them whenever he feels like it.

Rodgers and the Packers will do what they do here — play sound, balanced football, and bleed the clock. In matchups like this, Rodgers is likely to do a lot of damage on limited volume against Washington’s 28th rated DVOA pass defense. The Packers have shown no interest in moving away from their balanced to run-heavy approach, and a matchup against a struggling Football Team certainly won’t force their hand. Rodgers will definitely take his shots against this secondary, but he will be so efficient when he throws that it may limit the passing offense’s volume. This is a team on a mission who will play at their typical methodical pace and try to get out of here in one piece once they feel the game is in hand. Despite the presence of their MVP quarterback, the Packers play at the 6th slowest situation-neutral pace and also throw the ball at below the league average rate in neutral situations.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Packers should control this game from the start. The defending MVP against a pass defense that is currently dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed is a recipe for trouble. With the Packers likely to have success from the start and Washington having so many question marks on their offense, it is likely that this game is controlled by the Packers — which means it will be slow-paced. Shorter drives that end in punts for Washington mean the Packers have the ball more and can milk the clock on long, sustained drives that allow them to gradually build a substantial lead. While Washington has played at a relatively fast pace (6th in situation-neutral pace of play), their likely lack of efficiency will keep them from pushing the pace in this spot.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Vegas total of 49 is the 4th highest in Week 7
  • GB’s -9.5 spread and 29.25 implied team total both rank 4th
  • OVER has hit in 4/6 WAS games
  • UNDER has hit in 4/6 GB games
  • WAS ranks 7th in adjusted seconds per play (28.6), per numberFire
  • GB ranks 32nd (32.7)

Taylor Heinicke

  • 34th ranked QB in PFF passing grade
  • Out of seven starts, Heinicke has scored 20+ DK points four times
  • Two of the four were 25+ (28.84 vs. TB in the Wild Card round last year and 27.9 @ ATL)
  • Heinicke’s DK salary for Week 7 against GB has dropped to its lowest point on the year, $5200
  • GB ranks 15th in DK points allowed to QBs (19.8)
  • Three out six opposing QBs have scored 20+ while two out of three have scored less than 15 pts

WAS Passing Attack

  • WAS uses 11 personnel at a 20% higher rate than league average (79% vs. 59%)
  • Snap share: Terry McLaurin 94.9% // Logan Thomas 74.9% (only 5 snaps in Week 4 then gone) // Adam Humphries 62.7% // Ricky Seals-Jones 58.6% (full time role since Logan’s injury) // Dyami Brown 57.3%
  • Target share: McLaurin 27.9% // Humphries 10.8% // Dyami 9.8% // RSJ 9.8%
  • McLaurin is the only WR on the team to score 12+ DK points in a game (30.7 vs. NYG in Week 2 & 33.3 @ ATL in Week 4)
  • McLaurin ranks 5th in total targets, 13th in receiving yards, 4th in air yards, 5th in target share, 4th in air yards market share, and 3rd in WOPR among all WRs
  • GB ranks 8th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.2)
  • WAS TEs Logan & RSJ have averaged 11.92 DK ppg in 5 complete games
  • RSJ’s log since assuming the starting role: 9.1 // 15.8
  • GB ranks 17th against TEs (13.7)


  • Snap share: Antonio Gibson 55.8% // JD McKissic 44.5%
  • Target share: McKissic 13.7% // Gibson 7.8%
  • Touches per game: Gibson 16.8 // McKissic 7.7
  • Gibson’s DK log: 12.8 // 9.3 // 17.4 // 15.5 // 21.2 // 5.4
  • McKissic’s DK log: 0.8 // 20.3 // 5.8 // 16.9 // 1.7 // 19
  • Gibson’s DK salary started at $5,900 in Week 1, climbed all the way up to $6,500 in Week 6, and has fallen back to $5,900 in Week 7
  • GB ranks 14th against RBs (23.9)

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ranks 16th in passing grade from PFF
  • Rodgers’s DK salary started at $6,800 in Week 1, fell to a low of $6,300 by Week 3, then climbed to a season high this week at $7,500
  • DK log: 3.32 // 26.8 // 19.04 // 24.12 // 23.76 // 23.7
  • In 89 career games with a Vegas total of 50 or less, Rodgers averages 21.55 DK ppg
  • WAS ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (29.5)

GB Passing Attack

  • GB uses 11 personnel at the league average rate (59%) and 12 personnel at 33% (league average is 22%)
  • Snap share: Davante Adams 85.3% // Allen Lazard 75% // Robert Tonyan 61.3% // Marcedes Lewis 47.4% // Randall Cobb 36.6%
  • Target share: Adams 34.2% // Tonyan 10.4% // Lazard 7.8% // Cobb 7.3%
  • The 34.2% team target share for Adams leads all players in the league
  • Among WRs, Adams ranks 1st in receiving yards, 2nd in air yards, 5th in air yards market share, and 1st in WOPR
  • His two TDs are tied with players like Byron Pringle, Cedrick Wilson, and Greg Ward
  • With elite usage, positive TD regression is coming
  • In 12 games with a GB spread of -9.5 or  higher, Adams averages 15.17 ppg
  • Adams’s DK log: 10.6 // 23.1 // 34.2 // 12.4 // 40.6 // 12.9
  • Outside of Adams, only Cobb has topped 15 DK pts
  • Cobb’s 23.9 pt effort against PIT came after MVS was lost for the season
  • WAS ranks 31st against WRs in DK ppg allowed (48.8)
  • Tonyan’s DK salary started at $4,200
  • He managed 14.2 DK pts vs. DET but has otherwise not scored more than 3 in a game
  • His salary is now $3,500
  • WAS ranks 16th against TEs (13)


  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 63.9% // AJ Dillon 33.7%
  • Target share: Jones 11.9% // Dillon 5.2%
  • Touches per game: Jones 17.3% // Dillon 9.7
  • Jones has 6 TDs to Dillon’s 1
  • Dillon’s touches have decreased since a high of 16 in Week 4
  • His DK salary went up since a low of $3,800 in Week 3 to a high of $4,900 last week, but has gone down this week to $4,600
  • Dillon’s DK log: 3.6 // 3.6 // 4.6 // 10.7 // 17.9 // 5.9
  • Jones has had 17-18 touches each of the past three weeks
  • Jones’s DK log: 4.2 // 41.5 // 17.6 // 11.9 // 17.9 // 21
  • Out of 8 games with a GB spread of -9.5 or higher, Jones averages 24.65 ppg
  • WAS ranks 19th against RBs (26.4)