Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game has some sneaky upside, with a high game total and two teams that throw at an above average rate, while also playing faster than league average.
• While this game in itself has higher than perceived potential, the spread out volume nature for both offenses will make identifying potential slate-changing performances from here very difficult.
• The Eagles play calling this year has been head scratching based on their personnel and underlying statistics.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles enter this game at 2-4, coming off a 10 day break following last Thursday’s game against the Bucs. As is usually the case, struggles in Philadelphia have led to a lot of questioning in the city and media around the team. Some of those questions are very fair, however, as their approach has been an interesting one considering where their strengths in personnel and performance lie:

• The Eagles rank 3rd in rushing offense DVOA, yet they run the ball at the 10th lowest rate in the NFL. 
• Jalen Hurts is a very talented dual-threat QB, but the questions around him have always centered on his accuracy and timing in the pocket. Despite that, the Eagles are dropping him back at an above average rate and forcing him to make a lot of intermediate timing throws and deep throws into tight windows, especially on early downs. The result has been a low completion rate and a lot of long down and distances that force him to make even more difficult throws.
• The Eagles pass defense has performed very well this year (5th lowest yards per pass attempt allowed), which should allow them to focus on a more run-heavy offense but they have not taken the opportunity to do so.

At this point in the season, teams who are failing to meet expectations will often shake things up a bit in their philosophy to try to spark something. For the Eagles, coming off a  “mini-bye” following their Thursday night game in Week 6, this would be the perfect time to adjust the focus of their offense. The departure of Zach Ertz could also provide some clarity and consistency in snap rates and usage for their skill position players, and consistency in those areas could lead to better rhythm and production. Dallas Goedert will now play almost every TE snap and the Eagles trio of wide receivers (Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins) should all play most snaps as the Eagles base 11 formations should be consistent from here on out. They also have a great trio of runners in their backfield, with QB Jalen Hurts and running backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. The Raiders run defense ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed and struggled to contain the dual-threat run game of the Ravens in Week 1. Miles Sanders is an extremely talented back and the Eagles would be wise to at least *try* to get him more involved at some point before the season totally slips away from them. Sanders saw 20 opportunities (carries + targets) in a big Week 1 win against Atlanta but has only averaged 12 opportunities in the five games since. The Eagles have the 10th graded run-blocking offensive line in the NFL by PFF and could be returning All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson this week. Another data point that should push the Eagles towards the run is the Raiders have PFF’s #1 ranked pass rush and #2 ranked coverage unit through six weeks. Forcing Hurts to stand in the pocket and throw the ball 40 times here is likely a losing proposition. 

It is hard to say with certainty what Philadelphia will do this week, but what they should do is build their game plan around Sanders/Hurts on the ground while mixing in short-area passing work for Goedert and their speedy wide receivers. This would help them control the game, put Hurts in manageable 3rd downs, and get the ball out of his hands quickly to avoid sacks and turnovers. The Eagles can and should maintain their 4th fastest pace of play while shifting focus more to the run game. The added physicality dimension of running the ball while playing at a fast pace could also take a toll on the Raiders defense as the game wears on.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Las Vegas rallied the troops in Week 6 for a huge divisional road win against the Broncos, following a dramatic week where they lost their coach to some ugly off-the-field circumstances. They will look to follow that up by taking care of business at home against a struggling and inconsistent Eagles team. The Raiders are quietly tied for the AFC West divisional lead. With the Chargers on bye, and the Chiefs facing a tough road matchup with the Titans, they have a chance to take control of the division. 

As explored in last week’s NFL Edge, the Raiders didn’t change much about their approach in Week 6 despite the changes to the coaching staff. The Raiders spread the ball around, throw at an above league average rate of 63%, and let Derek Carr take calculated shots down the field to attack their opponent. The matchup itself could give them some issues as they are more efficient through the air than on the ground, but the Eagles defense is also much stronger against the pass than the run. The Eagles have struggled against the potent Bucs, Cowboys, and Chiefs passing offenses, who are currently ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th in pass offense DVOA; but, they have looked great against more middling competition from the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers that would more closely resemble what the Raiders bring to the table. The Raiders will run the ball some to set up the pass and will spread things out when they throw. Occasionally, Carr will take some deep shots, but the Eagles blitz at the third-lowest rate (14.8%) in the NFL and play a lot of deep zone coverages and very little man, which should limit the chances the Raiders have to really push the ball down the field.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game sets up for a disappointing game flow and scoring environment from what its game total indicates. It reminds me in a lot of ways of the Raiders home game against the Bears from Week 5, with the visiting team having a very good passing defense and a struggling passing offense that will likely lead to a more run-based approach. It is worth noting that in the three games against non-elite offenses, the Eagles defense has given up point totals of 6 >> 17 >> 18. The likelihood of Philly turning to their ground game (which will keep the clock moving) and Las Vegas struggling to score points against a tough defense makes this game more likely to be a good football game from a real life perspective than it is for fantasy.

---

OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER

TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND

SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES

TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS

WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

---

DFS+ Interpretation ::