Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- This game has some sneaky upside, with a high game total and two teams that throw at an above average rate, while also playing faster than league average.
- While this game in itself has higher than perceived potential, the spread out volume nature for both offenses will make identifying potential slate-changing performances from here very difficult.
- The Eagles play calling this year has been head scratching based on their personnel and underlying statistics.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Eagles enter this game at 2-4, coming off a 10 day break following last Thursday’s game against the Bucs. As is usually the case, struggles in Philadelphia have led to a lot of questioning in the city and media around the team. Some of those questions are very fair, however, as their approach has been an interesting one considering where their strengths in personnel and performance lie:
- The Eagles rank 3rd in rushing offense DVOA, yet they run the ball at the 10th lowest rate in the NFL.
- Jalen Hurts is a very talented dual-threat QB, but the questions around him have always centered on his accuracy and timing in the pocket. Despite that, the Eagles are dropping him back at an above average rate and forcing him to make a lot of intermediate timing throws and deep throws into tight windows, especially on early downs. The result has been a low completion rate and a lot of long down and distances that force him to make even more difficult throws.
- The Eagles pass defense has performed very well this year (5th lowest yards per pass attempt allowed), which should allow them to focus on a more run-heavy offense but they have not taken the opportunity to do so.
At this point in the season, teams who are failing to meet expectations will often shake things up a bit in their philosophy to try to spark something. For the Eagles, coming off a “mini-bye” following their Thursday night game in Week 6, this would be the perfect time to adjust the focus of their offense. The departure of Zach Ertz could also provide some clarity and consistency in snap rates and usage for their skill position players, and consistency in those areas could lead to better rhythm and production. Dallas Goedert will now play almost every TE snap and the Eagles trio of wide receivers (Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins) should all play most snaps as the Eagles base 11 formations should be consistent from here on out. They also have a great trio of runners in their backfield, with QB Jalen Hurts and running backs Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell. The Raiders run defense ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed and struggled to contain the dual-threat run game of the Ravens in Week 1. Miles Sanders is an extremely talented back and the Eagles would be wise to at least *try* to get him more involved at some point before the season totally slips away from them. Sanders saw 20 opportunities (carries + targets) in a big Week 1 win against Atlanta but has only averaged 12 opportunities in the five games since. The Eagles have the 10th graded run-blocking offensive line in the NFL by PFF and could be returning All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson this week. Another data point that should push the Eagles towards the run is the Raiders have PFF’s #1 ranked pass rush and #2 ranked coverage unit through six weeks. Forcing Hurts to stand in the pocket and throw the ball 40 times here is likely a losing proposition.
It is hard to say with certainty what Philadelphia will do this week, but what they should do is build their game plan around Sanders/Hurts on the ground while mixing in short-area passing work for Goedert and their speedy wide receivers. This would help them control the game, put Hurts in manageable 3rd downs, and get the ball out of his hands quickly to avoid sacks and turnovers. The Eagles can and should maintain their 4th fastest pace of play while shifting focus more to the run game. The added physicality dimension of running the ball while playing at a fast pace could also take a toll on the Raiders defense as the game wears on.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
Las Vegas rallied the troops in Week 6 for a huge divisional road win against the Broncos, following a dramatic week where they lost their coach to some ugly off-the-field circumstances. They will look to follow that up by taking care of business at home against a struggling and inconsistent Eagles team. The Raiders are quietly tied for the AFC West divisional lead. With the Chargers on bye, and the Chiefs facing a tough road matchup with the Titans, they have a chance to take control of the division.
As explored in last week’s NFL Edge, the Raiders didn’t change much about their approach in Week 6 despite the changes to the coaching staff. The Raiders spread the ball around, throw at an above league average rate of 63%, and let Derek Carr take calculated shots down the field to attack their opponent. The matchup itself could give them some issues as they are more efficient through the air than on the ground, but the Eagles defense is also much stronger against the pass than the run. The Eagles have struggled against the potent Bucs, Cowboys, and Chiefs passing offenses, who are currently ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th in pass offense DVOA; but, they have looked great against more middling competition from the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers that would more closely resemble what the Raiders bring to the table. The Raiders will run the ball some to set up the pass and will spread things out when they throw. Occasionally, Carr will take some deep shots, but the Eagles blitz at the third-lowest rate (14.8%) in the NFL and play a lot of deep zone coverages and very little man, which should limit the chances the Raiders have to really push the ball down the field.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game sets up for a disappointing game flow and scoring environment from what its game total indicates. It reminds me in a lot of ways of the Raiders home game against the Bears from Week 5, with the visiting team having a very good passing defense and a struggling passing offense that will likely lead to a more run-based approach. It is worth noting that in the three games against non-elite offenses, the Eagles defense has given up point totals of 6 >> 17 >> 18. The likelihood of Philly turning to their ground game (which will keep the clock moving) and Las Vegas struggling to score points against a tough defense makes this game more likely to be a good football game from a real life perspective than it is for fantasy.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Dwprix >>
- 4th highest total on a ten game slate (48.5)
- LV favored by three
- Line has moved up one pt
- LV ranks T-13th in pts/g (24.5)
- PHI ranks 20th (22.8)
- PHI & LV both rank top 10 in pass play %
- LV-9th (63.36%) // PHI-10th (62.61%)
- LV D pts allowed: @ DEN-24 // vs CHI-20 // @ LAC-28 // vs MIA-28 // @ PIT-17 // vs BAL-27
- PHI D pts allowed: vs TB-28 // @ CAR-18 // vs KC-42 // @ DAL-41 // vs SF-17 // @ ATL-6
- In nine career full games (started & finished), Hurts has 20+ DK points in every one
- Four of those games he’s thrown for 300+
- In seven of those nine, he’s rushed for at least 40 yds
- This season he has 14 pass TDs and five rushing
- DK pts: vs TB-26.00 // @ CAR-23.92 // vs KC-31.18 // @ DAL-25.54 // vs SF-21.80 // @ ATL-28.76
- Hurts’ tgts have been spread out w/ six players seeing between 15-18 tgts this season
- LV allows the 11th least DK pts to QBs (18.5)
- Hurts has the second most carries on the team (53), leads the team in rush yds (300), attempts 8.83/game, & avgs 5.7/rush (sixth in NFL)
- Team Carry Share: Miles Sanders-40% // Gainwell-16% // (Hurts-43%)
- PHI RBs only have one 20+ DK point game this season
- Sanders ($5.1k) is the cheapest he’s been on DK since Week 11 2019, just 11 games into his career
- Both these RBs combine for only 54% of the teams rush yds, Hurts makes up 44% alone
- Tgts: Sanders-18 (14%) // Gainwell-15 (12%)
- LV has allowed 26.0 RB points/g
- LV to RBs: Melvin Gordon-10.30 + Javonte Williams-9.80 // Damien Williams-16.40 // Austin Ekeler-32.50 // Myles Gaskin-10.40 // Najee Harris-19.10 // Tyson Williams-18.40
- Ekeler has been the only RB to top 20 DK pts vs LV but did so with 32.50
- Devonta Smith leads PHI w/ 44 tgts, 27 receptions, & 345 yds
- Target Share: Smith-22% // Reagor-14% // Quez Watkins-11%
- Smith’s tgts by game: 2 // 7 // 7 // 3 // 2 // 6
- His Week 7 salary ($5.4k) is down $600 from last week & is the same as his Week 2 salary
- It rose every week since Week 1 until this week
- Dallas Goedert missed last week with Covid and is still currently being held out
- TE snaps last week w/o Goedert: Zach Ertz-46 // Jack Stoll-15
- Ertz has since been traded to ARZ
- No remaining PHI TE besides Goedert has a tgt this season
- LV allows the 6th most DK pts to TEs (17.6)
- Carr has the sixth most pass attempts (232) but has played 2 OT games
- Carr is second in pass yds (1,946) behind Tom Brady (2,064)
- After last weeks 24.54 pt game, Carr has 24+ DK pts in four of six
- DK pts: 24.54-@ DEN // 8.84-vs CHI // 15.44-@ LAC // 25.24-vs MIA // 27.18-@ PIT // 28.00-vs BAL
- DK salary: $5.6k // $6.1k // $5.9k // $5.9k // $5.3k // $6k
- HIs salary this week ($6k) is back to the same as it was week one
- Of 18 QBs, Carr’s salary is the tenth highest
- Other QBs in this price range: Ryan Tannehill vs KC-$6.4k // Joe Burrow @ BAL-$6.2k // Sam Darnold @ NYG-$5.9k // Matt Ryan @ MIA-$5.7k
- PHI allows the ninth least DK pts to QBs (18.1)
- Carr has taken the fifth most sacks (17), only six teams have less sacks than PHI (11)
- He carries a 108.1 passer rating when clean but 72.7 under pressure
- PHI allowed to QBs: Tom Brady-18.98 // Sam Darnold-9.08 // Patrick Mahomes-32.72 // Dak Prescott-21.12 // Jimmy Garoppolo-16.68 // Matt Ryan-16.62
- Last week was the first time Josh Jacobs rushed for 50+ yds (53)
- Tgts: 1 // 5 // 5 // 2
- He has four TDs in four games
- RB snaps last week of 55: Jacobs-36 // Kenyan Drake-11 // Jalen Richard-8
- In four games played, Jacobs has handled 64% of teams rush share
- PHI allows the sixth most DK pts to RBs/g (29.6)
- They’ve given up at least 20 DK pts to an RB the last four weeks and 30+ twice
- PHI to RBs: Leonard Fournette-30.70 // Chuba Hubbard-21.40 // Clyde Edwards-Helaire-32.72 // Ezekiel Elliot-25.54 // Eli Mitchell+Jamycal Hasty-17.2 // Mike Davis+Cordarrelle Patterson-18.90
- Target Share: Hunter Renfrow-19% // Henry Ruggs (Q)-14% // Bryan Edwards (Q)-12%
- Yds/rec: Renfrow-11.0 // Ruggs-22.3 // Edwards-20.2
- Ruggs is the only WR to have 100+ receiving yds this season
- He also had at 97 yd game last week & scored his second TD on the season
- No WR has 10+ tgts in a game
- PHI allows the fourth least DK pts to WRs (30.4)
- Waller saw 19 tgts week one
- Tgts since: 5 // 8 // 7 // 7 // 7
- His only game w/ 5+ receptions was week one
- The 19 tgt game was his only over 100 yds
- Rec yds: 59 // 45 // 50 // 54 // 65 // 105
- Wallers price ($6.7k) fallen from a Week 2 high of $7.6k
- He’s priced $900 cheaper than Travis Kelce & $700 more than Mark Andrews
- PHI allows the eighth most DK pts to TEs (17.0)