XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The NFL is back, baby! It’s Week 1 and I have the honor of writing up the first Showdown game of the season as the Bills visit the defending Super Bowl champs, the Los Angeles Rams. This could have easily been the Super Bowl last year and should be an exciting game, coming in as the second-highest total of all Week 1 games at 52.5, and the Bills favored by 2.5 (the dreaded “short road favorite” spot). I don’t bet lines, but if I did, I would take the Rams at home here. Both of these teams are elite, but the Rams are the defending champs and they are playing at home so I’m a bit surprised they’re the underdog. 

FIRST, a note: because OWS releases content early in Week 1, I’m writing this on Friday, September 2nd. There’s some injury news outstanding, and while I’m trying to touch on if/then scenarios in the write-up, if we get information that changes things beyond what I’ve covered as injury possibilities, I’ll come back and update this article. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Let’s talk a bit macro first. Both teams are elite on both sides of the ball, with the Bills having finished 2021 first in overall defensive DVOA and the Rams 5th (note the Bills are also missing top cornerback Tre’Davious White). We also know that it’s Week 1, and in Week 1 we know less than any other week of the season, but that said, these teams look pretty similar to 2021 and so for this game, at least, we should have a pretty solid idea of how they’ll play (at least compared to the rest of Week 1, which . . . well, just wait for it. It’s going to be chaotic). All of that is to say that I think there’s a very wide range of outcomes here, and while I would expect a high-scoring game the majority of the time, if this were played 100 times, there are a lot of other potential outcomes you could consider betting on. 

Los Angeles

Let’s start with the Rams and their run game. This is one area with a lot of uncertainty. Cam Akers returned earlier than expected from injury last year and saw a lot of work in the playoffs with games of 19, 27, 14, and 17 opportunities – a total of 77 running back opportunities against 39 for then primary backup Sony Michel. Darrell Henderson, the current backup, only played in the Super Bowl and saw nine opportunities (with Michel seeing just two). So, the primary running back, Akers, saw 19.25 opportunities per game in the playoffs while the backups combined averaged 12 opportunities. In today’s NFL, that’s a solid RB1 workload but Akers was also not very effective with those opportunities, averaging 2.6 yards per carry for the 2021 season. Akers and Henderson have both been working through soft tissue injuries in the preseason, and Sean McVay has made statements indicating he believes them both to be lead backs. Sooooo, what are we supposed to make of this? Well, first off, remember that coaches lie (ESPECIALLY McVay). McVay’s history has been having a primary RB, not a split backfield, and he was giving Akers an RB1 workload . . . coming off a serious injury earlier than expected . . . in the playoffs. That makes me think that Akers is the guy here, and at a price of just $8k, he isn’t priced for an RB1 type of role. Henderson is a fine value play, or you could certainly bet that I’m wrong and that it is more of a split (or even that Henderson is in the lead – it’s Week 1! Who knows?!). 

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Primary pieces from the Saints pass offense are fundamentally underpriced.
• Saints are highly likely to control the tempo and flow of this one.
• Kyle Pitts could emerge as the tight end with the highest ownership on the slate, but there are reasons to consider a leverage fade if that ownership gets out of hand.
• The Saints are likely to score points here but there isn’t one specific avenue for those points to flow through, meaning ownership is likely to remain relatively low.

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

After a season that saw the Saints establish the run (second-highest overall rush rate and second-highest rush rate when playing from behind), primarily due to injuries to Jameis Winston and a pass-catching corps consisting of Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith, Kenny Stills, and Ty Montgomery (all of whom are either no longer with the team or running with the second unit), we should realistically expect a more aggressive stance through the air from the Saints this year. It seems to have been lost in the turnover with this team that offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael once led this franchise to 14 consecutive seasons finishing in the top 10 in total offense. It also seems like a distant memory, but the Saints ranked top 10 in overall pass rate and third in pass rate when trailing in 2019 with an aging Drew Brees and Pete Carmichael at offensive coordinator. The promotion of previous defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to head coach means we’re likely to see Carmichael regain control of offensive play-calling duties. Another little-known fact surrounding Carmichael is this won’t be his first stint calling plays as Sean Payton routinely relinquished control of those duties throughout their time together, dating back to 2006. All of that should come together to form a situation where we can be confident in Carmichael designing (and calling) an offense best suited to maximize the talent on the field, and that talent on the field now includes wide receivers Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, rookie Chris Olave, running back Alvin Kamara, and tight ends Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill. Final note – the Saints offensive line has fallen all the way down to 21^st overall in preseason rankings, per PFF.

Primary running back Alvin Kamara averaged a paltry 3.7 yards per tote in 2021, which was a full 0.9 yards per carry less than his previous career low (all the way back in 2018, when he averaged 4.6 yards per carry). That dip in efficiency is much more likely to be attributable to the one-dimensionality of the offense and the predictable nature of play calling, allowing additional emphasis to be placed on stopping the run. As in, there’s a higher percentage chance we see Kamara regain his per-touch efficiency rather than it is that Kamara has reached his career cliff. We can’t rely on net-adjusted line yards metrics (my primary indicator of a team’s matchup on the ground) for the first month of play, leaving us with the makeup of the opposing defense and defensive archetype as our fallback for analysis. The Falcons were ranked dead last in defensive line metrics in 2021 and were dealt an early blow this offseason with the retirement of Eddie Goldman. Other than star Grady Jarrett, there is a lot left to be desired from this defensive front. Primary nose tackle Anthony Rush will be charged with lead run-stopping duties, a player that has bounced around the league during his career. In all, consider this a plus matchup on the ground for the Saints. Behind Kamara, expect veteran Mark Ingram to reprise his role as the primary change of pace back. What remains to be seen is the workload distribution between the two, but I would tentatively expect we see Kamara in the 12-14 rush attempt and 4-6 target range on a standard week.

I alluded to the changing dynamics of this team through the air above, but it bears repeating here. The Saints are one of if not the team with the biggest improvement to pass-catchers in the league. They legitimately played every game last season with players that could barely crack NFL rosters; they now have three pristine route-runners in Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave, the latter of whom is probably the most polished route-runner to come out of this year’s draft. They also see the return of perennial gunslinger quarterback Jameis Winston, who missed 10 games last season with a torn ACL and accompanying MCL damage (suffered in Week 8). I would surmise that this team is going to approach winning games far differently than what we saw last season. The general composition of the offense should see Michael Thomas as the “X’ receiver, Chris Olave as the “Z” receiver, and Jarvis Landry as the “Y” receiver, but Olave’s ability to play both perimeter and slot snaps gives Carmichael a good deal of flexibility when it comes to offensive alignments. The relative lack of talent at the tight end position also should funnel expected production primarily through the wide receivers and Alvin Kamara, which, depending on health, could lead to relatively condensed targets in most weeks.

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Narratives gone wild in this game: revenge, comeback, scandal, coaching hot seat . . . it’s got it all.
• Cleveland should lean into their strength on the ground to attack a Carolina defense that is at a big disadvantage up front.
• The Browns offense with Jacoby Brissett should resemble what we saw last year with an injured Baker Mayfield.
• Carolina’s offensive line is a question mark but they will likely use the strengths of their offensive personnel to mask that deficiency.
• Explosive plays may be hard to come by in this game as both teams will lean heavily on their running game and short-area passing.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Last season, the Panthers were one of the bigger “run funnel” defenses in the league as they played heavy coverage schemes and defended the pass very well, forcing passes underneath, but getting gashed up front often as a result. The Panthers have the same defensive coaching staff in place this year and haven’t significantly changed their personnel, making it likely that their defense looks very similar this year to what we saw last year . . . this is great news for the Browns. 

Cleveland’s offense sputtered through the end of last season as they struggled to get things going with a clearly injured and limited Baker Mayfield. This year with Jacoby Brissett under center to start the year, we should expect a similar approach to last year when they had the 6th lowest pass-to-run ratio in the NFL. The Browns continue to have one of the top 5 offensive lines in the NFL and it should be no secret to anyone on either side of the field that they are going to look to leverage that strength into offensive success. They have a trio of talented running backs who have all shown the ability to carry the load when necessary, but should have the luxury of rotating those backs and pounding the Panthers into submission while protecting their “adequate, but not a world-beater” fill-in QB. 

On the perimeter, the Browns offense will look different this year with explosive downfield options in Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones starting on the perimeter, and the uber-athletic David Njoku taking over as the starting tight end in place of the “catch and fall down” style of his predecessor, Austin Hooper. Long-term, there will likely be some very fun periods from this team. However, this week in a matchup against a high-end pass defense it is unlikely we see anything close to a ceiling performance from the passing game. During the preseason, the Browns did show a propensity to use more misdirection and horizontal concepts than we’ve seen from them in the past. Specifically, they ran some jet sweeps and quick pitches to receivers in motion as a way to try stretching the defense horizontally since they are likely going to struggle to stretch defenses vertically until a QB upgrade happens.

Overall, this side of the ball should be relatively predictable for a Week 1 NFL game. The Browns are going to run the ball at a very high rate, and likely do so in an efficient manner. When they do take to the air, they may take the occasional deep shot but will mostly focus on the short, middle of the field, screen game, and horizontal concepts as a means of moving the chains. The Browns have an above-average defense and clearly based on their actions this offseason they don’t have a lot of confidence in Baker Mayfield’s ability to go out and beat a team so their game plan here will likely be very conservative so as to not beat themselves.

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• Chicago has been busy on the waiver wire over the previous week bringing in seven players, many of whom could immediately fill positions of need in the starting lineup. The only issue is they won’t have much in the way of practice time with their new team.
• One of the widest range of outcomes games on the main slate.
• San Francisco should drive the game flow, meaning lower than average total volume and potential fantasy ranges of outcomes driven by efficiency rather than volume.

How san Francisco Will Try To Win ::

Although we have a changing of the guard, so to speak, at the quarterback position for the 49ers this year, we can be fairly certain of how this team will approach trying to win games moving forward. We have a team with an established coaching staff and established identity that will now be adapting that identity to a quarterback with a different skill set than previous iterations, as opposed to say, their opponent in Week 1 that is basically building from scratch. The identity of this team is to aggressively hunt the football on defense (22 forced fumbles and eight different players with an interception in 2021) utilizing complex zone concepts. On offense, they use an outside zone run scheme designed to get the football to its playmakers in space with an overall emphasis on winning the time of possession battle and minimizing mistakes. Now add in the dynamic skillset of Trey Lance and we’re left with an offense that should be heavily biased towards the run and leveraged passing situations, built to maximize the upside of yards after the catch giants George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. It will be interesting to see how often the legs of Lance will be utilized early in the season in conjunction with that offensive shell, how often Deebo Samuel will be aligned in the backfield or utilized on sweeps and end arounds, and how often Kittle will be in a route.

Elijah Mitchell is the unquestioned lead of this backfield after making his mark on the 2021 season, amassing 1132 yards on the ground on 262 carries (a solid 4.32 yards per carry). His combination of vision, decisiveness, and explosion out of the first cut is really the perfect fit for the offensive scheme employed by Shanahan. He should be primarily backed up by Jeff Wilson, Jr. when healthy, followed by third-round rookie Tyrion Davis-Price. Both Trey Sermon and JaMycal Hasty were recently released by the team. They should carry three running backs and fullback Kyle Juszczyk on game day. San Francisco’s heavy 34% 21-personnel usage rate from 2021 (led the league by a wide margin) should carry over into 2022, but it’s a bit misleading from a top-level perspective in that the majority of the time it was the primary running back and Juszczyk on the field together, not two running backs. Add the approximately 10% of snaps from 12-personnel and we’re left with an offense that operates primarily from alignments with only two wide receivers on the field: Deebo and Aiyuk. All of that to say, the primary running back on this offense should be on the field a ton. The other side of that discussion is the historically low pass game involvement from the position, meaning the primary back in this offense should be viewed as a “yardage and touchdown back.” The Bears allowed over 100 yards rushing per game in 2021 but somehow only surrendered nine total rushing scores and 88 targets to the position, more of a nod to the game flows opponents routinely found themselves in.

The San Francisco pass offense is concentrated by necessity (largely due to the personnel groupings they like to run) but lacks any semblance of bankable weekly volume. For example, Deebo saw 120 targets in 2021, Kittle saw 95, and Aiyuk saw 85. The next highest target number over the course of the entire season was Jauan Jennings at 39. That said, this is an offense that threw the ball only 29.4 times per game in 2021 (second fewest in the league ahead of only the Seahawks). Since we can expect the overall identity of the offense to remain rather static heading into the new season, that means we should expect low volume and efficiency to be the name of the game in contests the 49ers are allowed to control or play to neutral scripts. More on the ramifications of these truths below in the DFS+ Interpretation section.

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Steelers are sure to carry a wide range of potential outcomes as far as efficiency and scoring are concerned to start the year, considering the multitude of moving pieces and an offensive coordinator that designs his offense to maximize the talent on the field.
• The biggest change for the Bengals is a complete overhaul and improvement of their offensive line heading into 2022, which should influence their play calling and game plan a good deal.
• Wide range of outcomes concerning potential game flows, largely dependent on what the Steelers can muster offensively.
• Very clear optimal plans of attack based on the range of potential outcomes of those game flows.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Mike Tomlin enters his 16th season as the Steelers head coach, joined by the second-year offensive coordinator and play caller Matt Canada and new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin via the in-house promotion. There are a few things to take away from the coaches alone – Matt Canada is adept at tailoring an offense to the strengths of his players, meaning we should look to those strengths to get a better feel for how the offense should look; Teryl Austin has been with the organization since 2019 and has previous defensive coordinator experience (Lions 2014-2017 and Bengals 2018); and, finally, the identity of the team should remain with the retention of Tomlin (who has received some backlash from fans over the previous two seasons). That said, the rebuild is in full effect for these Steelers in 2022. Not only has their defense continued to regress over the previous three seasons (22nd-ranked total defense in 2021), but they come into 2022 with a bottom-five ranked offensive line and a new quarterback. Speaking of the new quarterback, Mitch Trubisky has all but assuredly won the offseason quarterback battle, beating out rookie Kenny Pickett. So, when we circle back to Canada and his ability to design an offense around the players on the field, we’re left with a journeyman quarterback behind a poor offensive line and declining defense (which influences play calling). The biggest issue with Trubisky behind a poor offensive line is his slower-than-average processing speed and long release time, which could mean a plethora of sacks taken this year, backing up the offense to long down and distance to go and stalled drives. At the same time, however, the plus arm strength and ability to throw into tighter windows can help offset those discrepancies should Canada place him in the past environment to succeed, which I think he can.

Najee Harris is one of the true bell cow backs remaining in the NFL, and based on the depth behind him at the position; I expect that to remain the case moving forward. The biggest issue is expected efficiency, as Harris is coming off a season of 3.9 yards per carry on 307 totes. The expected and proven pass game involvement, in addition to elite volume, will keep him in weekly consideration regardless of the opponent. The matchup is a net-negative for Najee on the ground against a revamped zone-based Bengals defense, but one of the glaring holes in the defensive scheme for Cincinnati is passes to running backs out of the backfield (filtered 135 targets to the position in 2021, fourth most in the league). Behind Najee, I tentatively expect rookie Jaylen Warren to serve as nothing more than a sparsely utilized change of pace back, with Benny Snell on hand for emergency usage (this situation still isn’t entirely clear, so Snell might start the season in a backup role, but the volume shouldn’t matter, regardless).

In stark contrast to the talent on the roster in the trenches, the pass-catching corps of Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and the aforementioned Najee Harris is one of the more dynamic units in the league. One of the more interesting developments with this unit this offseason is the shifting of Claypool from a perimeter role to the slot, which was a product of the release of Juju Smith-Schuster and replacement by George Pickens. That kind of athleticism out of the slot is not something often seen at the NFL level, which will create routine mismatches against typically undersized slot coverage. Considering our exploration of the offensive design above, I would expect we see a re-emphasis on ball-out-quick timing, layered crossing routes designed to stress coverage, high running back route involvement, and the occasional deep shot built off of it all. That means this offense, and Mitch Trubisky in particular is going to have to be efficient in order to sustain drives and put points on the board. It can be done, as we’ve seen in the past, but we’re likely to see a relatively wide range of weekly outcomes from this team to start the season.

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Not a ton to love in the way of guaranteed points from this one, even with a lofty 49.0 game total.
• The likeliest game flow has each team running their preferred plan of attack deep into the game.
• Each team prefers to share the load on the ground, and each passing offense is far from concentrated.
• Some interesting “alternate game flows” here, designated as such due to the lower likelihood of actually happening (if you’re new to OWS, first of all . . . WELCOME! Secondly, in games that have a fair chance of developing in ways the field might not be employing, we typically provide a full “tributary” write-up that dives into the likeliest way for the game to play differently than public perception).

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Here’s the thing with the Eagles – we don’t really know how they’re going to try and win games to start the year. We saw the two extremes from this squad last year, showcasing a robust 63% overall pass rate over the first six weeks of the season and then leading the league in overall rush rate the remainder of the season with an insanely low 44% overall pass rate. We know why they chose to approach things differently last year, we know they have the projected top overall offensive line in the league heading into 2022, and we know they went ham in free agency to acquire A.J. Brown to run with DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and Dallas Goedert. Which side wins, the run or the pass? Furthermore, the team has been aggressive through free agency over the previous two seasons on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. They’ve brought in Darius Slay, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Marcus Epps, and James Bradberry during that timeframe, each of whom will begin the season as starters. Add it all up and your guess is as good as mine, but most signs point back to a run-balanced approach and aerial game capable of inflicting massive damage through both yards after the catch ability and deep strike play-making ability. Although pace of play can’t be considered a “sticky” statistic year-over-year, one of the more predictive pace statistics is first-half pace of play, and the Eagles ranked ninth in that category last season (fifth overall). So, my most educated guess is fast-paced, run-focused, with the talent and explosiveness through the air to inflict heavy damage all at once.

Oh man, where to even begin on the ground? The “RB1” on this team is very likely their quarterback, the “RB1 on paper” might miss this contest with a hamstring injury (Miles Sanders), and the team recently brought in ex-49er Trey Sermon to join Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott as “more than depth” pieces. On the other side, the Lions did some work this offseason to bolster their 4-3 base defense, drafting Aiden Hutchinson second overall to pair with Michael Brockers, Alim McNeill, and Charles Harris up front. As in, the Lions might not cede 21.4 points per game to opposing running backs like they did last year (second worst in the league), particularly considering they only gave up 57 total receptions to the position last year (tied for the fewest in the league). At best, this Eagles run game is a three-headed monster with Hurts, Sanders (or Scott), and Gainwell, and at worst it’s a four-headed monster.

As I alluded to above, I don’t expect we’ll see volume be the primary contributor to fantasy goodness from the Eagles this season. As such, we want to look for opportunities to target this unit at low ownership and largely fade them if they are expected to carry anything resembling heavy ownership. Any one of Brown, Smith, Watkins, or Goedert can wreak havoc on five to seven targets, which is honestly the likeliest range of targets for each of them on a given week. Brown would be the most obvious player to see volume higher than that range on a weekly basis. Furthermore, this Lions secondary ceded the most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and second most yards per completion (11.6) in the league last season. More on this situation below in the DFS+ Interpretation section.

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• The Colts offense dismantled Houston’s defense last year and should be more balanced and explosive in 2022
• The Texans should be much improved from their 2021 season, but have a poor matchup on both sides of the ball to start this year
• Pace and game flow should be slow, with both teams likely to be run-heavy and the Colts coming off a season where they ranked dead last in pace of play
• Houston is unlikely to score many points, making this game’s chances of staying close rely on the Colts offense faltering

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Frank Reich must be in heaven – a REAL NFL QB who doesn’t try to throw the ball with his weak hand from his own end zone!!

In all seriousness, Matt Ryan presents the biggest upgrade to the quarterback situation the Colts have had since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement on the eve of the 2019 season. After a year with backup types filling in at the last minute, the Colts settled for noodle-armed end-of-career Phillip Rivers in 2020 and then absent-minded Carson Wentz in 2021. While the last two seasons ended in a more than respectable 20-13 record, a quick playoff exit in 2020 and a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars to miss the playoffs in 2022 is an extremely disappointing outcome for a team with the talent, depth, and coaching that this Colts team has. 

Last year the Colts made the move to using Jonathan Taylor as a true feature back and offensive centerpiece about halfway through the season as they were around .500 and fighting for their playoff lives after a slow start to the year. That move proved wise, as Taylor established himself as one of the top RBs in the league and nearly carried the team on his back to the playoffs. This year, with the addition of Ryan, word out of Colts camp is that they will become more balanced and throw the ball more while also likely being more versatile and flexible to adjust to what defenses throw at them. Wentz has always been a very good athlete, but his ability to read defenses both before and after the snap has always been in question. Meanwhile, Ryan is one of the smarter QBs in the game and has done this at a high level for many years. This is also by far the best running attack and offensive line Ryan has played with in years, if not his entire career. For all intents and purposes, this is a match made in heaven (and all for the meager price of a 3rd round draft pick from the Colts!). Big picture, if and when teams sell out to stop Taylor, the Colts will now have a QB under center who can make the pre-snap adjustments needed and then execute what needs to be done to make teams pay. With that in mind, the Colts will almost certainly pass at a much higher rate this season than they did last season – although for this particular matchup we may not see it quite yet.

Looking at this specific game, in two meetings last season the Colts won both games by a combined score of 62-3, with Taylor running for a combined 288 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. As the saying goes, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Texans defense should be improved this season, and they will almost certainly sell out to stop the run in this matchup after last year’s slaughtering, but “containment” would be a victory here for the Texans while “stopping” the Colts running game would be an incredible surprise, even by NFL standards. The Indianapolis offensive line is not quite the juggernaut it has been in past seasons, but it is still a top-10 unit and the Texans have arguably one of the least talented defensive fronts in the league. During the off-season, the Texans used the 3rd and 37th overall picks in the NFL draft on defensive backs – a shrewd move that should provide long-term dividends, but one that will do little to nothing to help the Texans stop the freight train of the Colts running game in this matchup.

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Patriots have a ton of moving parts heading into 2022, less so in the sense of personnel and more so from an offensive scheme perspective.
• The overall identity of the Patriots should remain intact, likely focused on the suffocating defense and above average offensive line.
• Very few scenarios in this game lead to the Patriots controlling the flow, potentially leaving New England in uncomfortable, and recently unfamiliar, territory.
• If I’m Bill Belichick planning for this contest, I’m placing heavy emphasis on the run game in order to exploit the only true weakness of the Miami defense.
• There are very few avenues to the game environment turning into something favorable for fantasy production.

How New ENgland Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots enter the season with a new offensive coordinator for the first time since 2012 when Josh McDaniels joined Bill Belichick after a short stint with the Rams. Although not yet officially named the offensive coordinator (which seems to simply be a Belichickian ploy), all signs point to Matt Patricia calling plays (as he did for every snap taken by the first team this preseason). With the change in offensive coordinator comes a shift from the usual Patriot power run game to a more outside zone run scheme, at least that’s what we saw this preseason. We also saw this unit largely struggle under second-year quarterback Mac Jones during the preseason, raising questions as to the efficacy of an offense called by Patricia, who hasn’t even worked on the offensive side of the ball since 2005. That is to say, the change from McDaniels to Patricia, and the resulting expectation heading into the season from this offense, should not be understated. What we can say with a high degree of certainty is that this team’s identity is likely to revolve around the defense and an offensive line that PFF has as their seventh-ranked unit heading into 2022. The embarrassment of riches this team possessed on the defensive side of the ball allowed them to move on from Kyle Van Noy and J.C. Jackson, with Jonathan Jones and Raekwon McMillan set to take over. That should mean we see another dominant year after the Patriots held opponents to only 19.4 points per game in 2021, third-fewest in the league.

The departure of James White (retirement) and injury to Ty Montgomery (ankle) leaves the backfield in a likely tight 1A/1B situation split between incumbents Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Reports from camp and preseason seem to indicate the backfield will be far less situational and more aimed at keeping each fresh deep into the game, likely indicating we see each rotating in throughout a drive. That should be considered a boost to the weekly floor of each back as they are likely to see increased pass game work. As mentioned above, the most notable shift in this year’s backfield is a transition away from a power-focused rushing attack towards more outside zone elements, which should theoretically benefit Stevenson more than Harris – but that remains to be seen. The bigger issue I see is the relative incompetence we saw from the offense as a whole during the preseason, which could bring into question their scoring efficiency. As in, the Patriots ranked in the top 10 in total offense in nine of the previous 10 seasons, a trend that could be bucked this year.

Based on the composition of the pass-catching corps and weighed against the strengths of Mac Jones, I expect the overall theme of the passing game to remain relatively static heading into 2022. Basically, DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith are best suited to short-to-intermediate work where they are asked to win in the first five yards, leaving only Kendrick Bourne to stretch the field vertically to start the season (dynamic rookie wide receiver Tyquan Thornton was placed on injured reserve and will miss the first four games of the season, at minimum). As such, expect the passing game to focus on moving the chains in a methodical fashion, dinking-and-dunking down the field by limiting mistakes and avoiding long down and distance to go situations. This does two things for our understanding of this unit: (1) if effective, it should lead to high time of possession and minimal overall game volume, and (2) if ineffective, it could put additional strain on a “bend but don’t break” defense.

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Baltimore attempted 35.9 passes per game in 2021 after attempting 25.9 passes per game in 2020.
• Ravens could be without their top two running backs to start the season.
• Perennial underachiever Mike Davis, recent signing Kenyan Drake, and depth piece Justice Hill round out the running back depth chart behind J.K. Dobbins and PUP-lister Gus Edwards.
• The Jets could be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco following the knee injury to starting quarterback Zach Wilson in the first preseason game.
• The question from this one shouldn’t be “what is the likeliest game flow,” the question should be “how do we expect the Ravens to try and win this game knowing the issues with their backfield?”

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens were the most outlier team in the league last year when compared to how they normally try and win games under Harbaugh. What I mean by that is this – they threw the football 35.9 times per game in 2021 after throwing the football 25.9 times per game in 2020, due in large part to the massive amount of injuries they had both before the season started (their top three running backs were lost for the season) and during the season (multiple offensive linemen and countless members of their defense, including at all three levels). As such, we should expect this team to regress to their norm moving forward as a team whose identity is built from the run game. That said, they are about to start the season without Gus Edwards and potentially J.K. Dobbins, meaning we could see a backfield led by Mike Davis and newcomer Kenyan Drake. Should that be the case (if Dobbins is held out or is limited in Week 1), we have a very interesting discussion on our hands. Would this team try and run an inefficient rusher and a back that has been with the team for less than two weeks or would they place the game in the hands of their otherworldly quarterback Lamar Jackson?

Let’s start with a recent quote from Harbaugh regarding his backfield. “…if J.K. can go out right now, that would be great. I would be excited. He had a good practice today. If not, we have the guys that will play. So, we’re good either way.” Man, talk about a vote of confidence. If ever there were a quote that said absolutely nothing, that would be it. The most troubling thing, for me, was the addition of Kenyan Drake late in the preseason, which likely signals growing concern surrounding their lead running back heading into the year. That supposition garners additional support via recent videos out of Baltimore practices, showing Dobbins with a noticeable limp following individual drills. Regardless, I think it prudent to operate under the assumption we either see Baltimore without their lead back or see him limited in Week 1, which brings us back to the question of “how do we think Baltimore will try to win this game with a backfield consisting primarily of Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake?” Davis is a career 3.7 yards per carry, having played on five different teams over his eight-year career, while Drake was brought to town at the end of August, just 11 days before the first game of the season. With that exploration in mind, this is a good matchup on the ground for the Ravens. The Jets are fresh off a season where they allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of 28 total touchdowns allowed to the position, 23 of which came via rushing scores.
The departure of Marquise Brown this offseason leaves Baltimore’s primary pass-catchers as newly anointed alpha Rashod Bateman, dynamic tight end Mark Andrews, and third-year return man Devin Duvernay. Baltimore ran 11-personnel only 43% of the time in 2021, behind only two offenses that played tight ends heavily as wide receivers in Miami and Atlanta. One of the biggest offseason storylines regarding Baltimore pass-catchers is fourth-round rookie tight end Isaiah Likely, who many Best Ball drafters assume will garner a large role to begin the year. That said, Likely is a raw prospect that struggles with blocking technique, a notable development considering the identity of this team. As in, how many snaps are the Ravens truly going to allot to a tight end that is a poor blocker considering typical route participation rates from their TE2 (their TE2 last season were Eric Tomlinson (18% route participation rate), Nick Boyle (28% route participation rate), and Josh Oliver (59% route participation rate))? Regardless, Likely is currently listed as the third tight end on the depth chart and should be considered likely to start the season in a minimal role. James Proche should man the slot in what should amount to a part-time role. The reworked secondary of the Jets appears liable to cede major production to opposing tight ends once more after allowing 15.4 DraftKings points per game to the position in 2021 and bringing in D.J. Reed, Sauce Gardner, LaMarcus Joyner, and Jordan Whitehead this offseason.

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

• This game could have a faster pace than people anticipate
• Jahan Dotson is mispriced for his role
• Christian Kirk is mispriced for his role
• Both defenses have weak secondaries

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Last year the Commanders played slow (20^th situational neutral pace) but it’s hard to know how much of that was due to inconsistent QB play. Would you be thrilled about the idea of giving more plays to Taylor Heinicke? This year, the Commanders brought in Carson “Am I an upgrade?” Wentz. Wentz SHOULD (strongly stressing should) be an upgrade, but there is a reason he has struggled to find a consistent home over the past few seasons. Rivera wants to be aggressive. With a competent offensive line (ranked 12th by Sharp football), and a better QB, there is a real chance the Commanders play faster than they did last year.

The Jags were a sieve on defense last season. They were dastardly bad (31^st in DVOA) against the pass and almost equally soft (19^th DVOA) on the ground. The Jags lost Myles Jack, but added some help in free agency, and used three of their first four draft picks on defense. This unit could improve as the season progresses but should still be a liability. Sharp football ranks poorly both their front seven (22^nd) and secondary (27^th). The Jags profile as a team that can be attacked through the air, or on the ground. With the tragic shooting of Brain Robinson during a carjacking and the coaching staff’s obvious displeasure with Antonio Gibson, the Commanders could skew pass heavy Week 1, against one of the worst secondaries in the league.

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86>>

• A battle of teams who will likely play conservatively, although for different reasons.
• Tennessee’s identity “run and defend” will be tested this season due to offensive line and defensive personnel issues.
• New York will likely bring a lot of pressure, making things difficult for a Titans receiving corps devoid of separators.
• By far the biggest X-Factor in this game will be how aggressive head coach Brian Daboll decides to be in his first real game with Daniel Jones under center.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

A new sheriff is in town for the Giants, with Brian Daboll entering his first season as an NFL head coach. Daboll was a hot commodity on the NFL coaching scene this off-season, as teams battled for his services and he had quite a few options. The fact that he chose the Giants is encouraging for their short and long-term offensive outlook. The Giants have several very talented pieces on their roster and Daboll designed the NFL’s most prolific offenses for the Bills over the last several years. 

Looking to this year, we can be cautiously optimistic about this team as Daboll’s scheme seems to fit the personnel already in place. A spread-style offensive scheme should play to the strengths of QB Daniel Jones and the rest of the skill players and give them a chance to play a much more fun, uptempo style than we’ve seen from the Giants in years past. This is a team who ran a QB sneak on 3rd and 8 from their own 5-yard line last season. The Giants have multiple wide receivers (Kadarius Toney and Wandale Robinson) who are very good at creating separation and gaining yards after the catch, along with a finally healthy Saquon Barkley. Jones has struggled with accuracy and consistency during his NFL career but should benefit from a scheme that allows him to see things better and gives him a greater margin for error due to fewer tight window throws.

New York’s approach to this game will be interesting to see against a Tennessee defense that ranked 2nd in the league in 2021 in yards per carry allowed and just lost their 2021 sack leader, Harold Landry, for the season. The Titans also finished in the bottom-5 in the NFL in 2021 in blitz percentage, indicating their preference to sit back and play coverage. On paper, this sets up as a game for the Giants to spread the field and use a pass-heavy game plan to get the ball to their playmakers in space with short area work, scheming them open and looking for holes in coverage to sit down in and create yards after the catch. The Titans will likely maintain what worked for them last year, trusting their front to create pressure from the interior and sitting back in coverage waiting for the Giants to get too aggressive or Jones to make mistakes.

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This is an exciting matchup of teams that play at a fast pace, but both teams have a lot of changes on offense to start the year.
• The strengths of both offenses match up well with the “path of least resistance” provided by their opponents.
• The Cardinals preference to blitz at a high rate could be attacked and exploited by Patrick Mahomes in this game.
• This game not only deserves the highest total on the slate, it also has the greatest chance to drastically surpass those expectations due to a variety of matchup factors.

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How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs enter the 2022 season on a run of four consecutive years making it to the AFC championship game or Super Bowl. Last year ended for them when they fell apart and gave a game away at home to the Bengals, losing in overtime one week shy of the Super Bowl. As they look to make a fifth consecutive deep run into the playoffs, their division has become arguably the most difficult in football and they lost a key piece of their historically good offense.

The biggest change for this year will be the offense’s loss of all-pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Hill was used in a dynamic role all over the field and targeted in the short, intermediate, and deep areas of the field as a moveable chess piece that defenses had to account for. The Chiefs will not try to replace the “Hill” role in their offense with just one player, rather Andy Reid will have a somewhat redesigned offense built around the strengths of the players they do have. By all camp accounts, newcomer Juju Smith-Schuster will operate as the de facto WR1 this season – meaning he will have the highest snap count and be the most targeted of the group. As stated earlier, it won’t be a straight one-for-one replacement for Hill as JuJu has a different skill set and doesn’t match Hill’s straight line speed. He will likely be used on a lot of the shorter and intermediate routes and used interchangeably with Travis Kelce as they take turns attacking the seams and in-breaking routes. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was also brought in and will be the “#2” while being used often as a vertical field stretcher on the perimeter. Finally, Mecole Hardman maintains his role as the third receiver of the group and will be used on gadget plays and manufactured touches, with some deep shots of his own mixed in.

As for how this game plays out on this side of the ball, it will be very interesting to see how Arizona approaches the game philosophically. In last year’s playoff loss to the Rams, the Cardinals blitzed on 50% of Stafford’s dropbacks – despite Stafford having the best season of all NFL QB’s against the blitz – and he tore them apart. Mahomes has similarly been much better against the blitz than when facing four or fewer rushers during his career, while Arizona ranked 4th in the league in blitz rate last season. Complicating matters even more for the Cardinals defense will be the fact that they lost Chandler Jones, who was second on the team with 10.5 sacks last year, and linebacker Jordan Hicks, who was second on the team in tackles. There was a portion of last season where the Chiefs offense struggled as defenses had supposedly “figured them out” and began dropping back into Cover 2 and Cover 3 shell coverages while bringing less pressure. Eventually, the Chiefs adjusted their approach and took the easier underneath openings that defenses were giving them and got back on track, but we can unequivocally say that this defensive approach has shown much greater promise against the Chiefs offense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have continuity and talent on one of the top offensive lines in the league while the Cardinals may have one of the least talented defensive fronts at this point.

The Chiefs won’t completely abandon the run by any means, but they have an all-world QB playing behind an elite offensive line and have been one of the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) teams in the league since Mahomes took over, so it is safe to say they should be relatively pass heavy. The Cardinals already have a philosophy of bringing pressure through the blitz and are at a heavy disadvantage up front, making it likely that they stay true to themselves here and are aggressive against a team that will have to “prove” that they are the same explosive team without Tyreek Hill. This could line up for a game of fireworks for the Chiefs offense as Mahomes will get single coverage and open spaces to throw his receivers open.

JM >>

• As Mike said, this is pretty obviously one of the better game environments of the week; and in a sense, we could copy/paste my notes from the Raiders/Chargers game and the Packers/Vikings game, to essentially say: it’s really not a question that there are good plays from this game; but especially with the fact that this game will likely be popular, it’s less about “whether or not there are good plays” and more about “playing those good plays better than the field is playing those good plays“
  • A bit of a mindset/side-trail here :: if you’re considering fading this game, there can be a tendency to want to start defending that stance by searching for (and holding onto) the reasons why this game could fail, but by giving into that tendency, you’re really just wasting your time; this game can underperform expectations, because that’s true for every game/player/situation, etc.; if that’s the bet you want to place here, that’s completely fine, but you also need to realize that you should then place that bet by building your roster in such a way that it ideally benefits directly from the field getting this game wrong
  • Said differently: don’t waste time trying to prove to others that they’re wrong, or trying to prove to yourself that others are wrong; instead, realize that we should always look at games from a standpoint of their ranges of outcomes — and every game has “disappointment” in its range of outcomes; use your time, instead, to design rosters that intelligently take advantage of the space on the leaderboards that would open up if that scenario came our way
  • (If you’re in Inner Circle, of course, you understand the next several layers, regarding how to build that kind of roster; if you’re not in Inner Circle, you can check out the podcasts and content for free this week on the One Week Season podcast feed (search ‘one week season’ on your favorite podcast player) and in The Scroll)
• If you are building around this game…well, you’re trying to win a tourney; and this means that you’re building for the scenarios that would produce tourney-winners
• Said differently, I don’t care who you take from this game; if you’re taking multiple players from this game, or anchoring your roster with a QB from this game, you’re essentially betting on this game blowing away the others on this slate — in which case, we would be seeing plenty of touchdowns…in which case, pretty much any piece from this game could be part of the action, and the key is to build intelligently around a particular scenario
• I’m currently undecided as to whether or not I’ll be building around this game myself on my limited Week 1 entries, but there are plenty of angles to attack this one from, and nearly all of them are in play

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• An exciting Week 1 rematch of last year’s Week 18 “win and you’re in” game these two teams played.
• The new coaching staff and personnel for the Raiders lead to uncertainty about how they will approach this game.
• Continuity for the Chargers gives us a good idea of what they will do and how they will try to do it.
• The tempo and aggressiveness through the air of the Chargers are likely to be the catalyst that gets this game to the levels its game total would lead you to expect.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

This year’s Raiders team has a lot of interesting dynamics to consider and evaluate entering the season and as the season plays out. After a season in which they overcame a ton of adversity and made the playoffs, they now have a new coaching staff and front office. They also made a splash with the acquisition of Davante Adams to raise their offensive personnel from average to very good seemingly overnight. The Raiders also committed to Derek Carr with a three-year, $121 million contract extension in April, locking up that duo for the foreseeable future. Change can be a good thing, but there are also often some bumps along the way. One of the bigger questions heading into this season for this team is how the new staff and front office will handle players brought in by the previous regime. Josh Jacobs appears to be on the hot seat as the de facto starting running back, and the team cut 2021 first-round draft pick, offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood, in August.

Heading into the season, we can look at Josh McDaniels’ history and background to guide us in what we expect from the Raiders. The biggest thing to keep in mind is that McDaniels has a background with the Patriots, and their main objective is to play to their personnel and create their offense around the strengths of their players. This is where things get really interesting. The Raiders clearly have a strength in their passing game, with Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow creating a passing attack with multiple weapons whose strengths should seemingly complement each other well. However, the Raiders offensive line is one that has weaknesses in pass protection and personnel that seems better suited to succeed in the running game than in protection.

For this specific game, the Raiders could have some issues on their hands when they try to throw the ball – mainly the dynamic pass rush that the Chargers present that has been bolstered by the addition of Khalil Mack this offseason. The threat of the Chargers pass rush overwhelming the Raiders line, as well as the presence of All-Pro safety Derwin James leading a strong secondary, should make for trouble for Carr and the passing attack. The Chargers ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical category last season against the run. Given the issues they will have in pass protection, the strengths of their offensive line lying in run blocking, the Chargers clear “path of least resistance” on the ground, and the desire to keep Justin Herbert off the field – it is safe to say the Raiders will have a balanced to run heavy attack to start this season-opening matchup. Adams, Waller, and Renfrow are all very technically sound route runners and can win in short areas of the field, making it likely that the Raiders will have an offense designed for quick hitting passes when they do take to the air and will use a heavy dose of play-action passing to keep the Chargers pass rush honest.

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86>>

• Both offenses will have new looks to them, as the Packers adjust to life without Davante Adams and the Vikings implement a new, more aggressive scheme.
• A battle of wills, with the Vikings forging a new, aggressive mentality, while the Packers continue to bleed the clock and slow games down.
• Both defenses should be more vulnerable on the ground, which plays into the philosophy of the Packers offense at this time perfectly.
• We should expect a very competitive game throughout, with the potential for a low scoring battle, but a specific scenario which could turn this into the game of the week.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

After an eight year stint of mostly successful and competitive football with Mike Zimmer as their head coach, the Vikings let him go at the conclusion of the 2021 season as they try to get over the hump of disappointing finishes. Their new coach is 36-year-old Kevin O’Connell, the man who was the offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl champion LA Rams last season. O’Connell joins a growing list of young, offensive minded coaches that are sweeping the league, and his arrival brings with it a lot of excitement about what the Vikings and their elite personnel can do with an aggressive coach of his nature, rather than the “defense and ball control” mindset that Zimmer imposed on the organization.

The Vikings did not play their starters this preseason and, as always, preseason play calling and schemes are pretty vanilla, so it is hard to point to specific things on film or in box scores to define their approach. However, from training camp reports, beat writers, O’Connell’s history and the Vikings’ personnel we can paint a pretty clear picture of what to expect this season:

• First of all, Justin Jefferson appears primed for the “Cooper Kupp role,” which is not just a wide receiver, but rather an offensive centerpiece that is schemed around and found ways to force the ball to. Videos from camp and reports from beat writers showed Jefferson running routes from the backfield and being used in a variety of creative ways to get him the ball downfield, with advantageous matchups and in scoring zones. 
• Next, we look in the backfield. Dalvin Cook is still one of the most talented backs in the league and O’Connell comes from a Rams system that has historically relied on one bell cow running back to carry the load, only occasionally being spelled for breaks. This philosophy is very similar to what we’ve seen from the Vikings in recent years, with the caveat being that Cook has been rumored to be used in more creative ways, including even being split out wide on occasion. That should open the door for Cook to get the ball in space more often and for elite backup RB Alexander Mattison to be on the field with Cook. 
• From a pace of play perspective, the Vikings ranked a middling 17th in the league in situation-neutral pace of play in 2021, while the Rams played at a blistering pace to rank fourth in the same category. The Rams also ranked fourth in the league in average depth of target and called pass plays at a higher situation-neutral rate than the Vikings last season.

Putting that all together, we can expect a much more aggressive and fast paced offense (specifically early in games, where the Vikings were previously very conservative and usually had to be “pulled out of their shell” by game script) than we have seen from the Vikings in recent years. We can also expect a large portion of their offense to funnel through their two all-pro skill players, albeit in a variety of creative ways. 

It is worth noting that the Green Bay defense faced O’Connell’s Rams last season at Lambeau in November, a game in which the Packers controlled most of the way and won 36-28. It should be noted, however, that game was played outdoors in the cold Wisconsin weather late in the season. This game will be played in good conditions, at home, early in the season before injury issues become prevalent.

The biggest obstacle for this new look Minnesota offense in its debut will be a ferocious Green Bay defense that performed well last season and has now added more firepower through the draft, free agency and the return of some key players from injury. The Vikings have at best, a middle of the pack offensive line, while the Packers have a pair of high end edge rushers in Rashaan Gary and Preston Smith, along with all-pro DT Kenny Clark who routinely collapses pockets from the interior. This, along with a loaded secondary led by the return of Jaire Alexander – the highest paid cornerback in the NFL – makes the Packers defense anything but a cakewalk, particularly through the air.

The Packers run defense ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric last year and was clearly the easier way to attack this defense. We should expect the Vikings to exploit this area when possible, but not to shrivel up as they would in the past when trying to “establish the run.” I would expect in this Week 1 matchup with a division rival at home, that the Vikings will look to find ways to be aggressive and send a message that things are changing. While running may be the “easiest path,” this is a matchup of strength on strength as the Vikings offense is now primed to attack rather than be pulled along for the ride. Sometimes teams will abandon ship on their philosophies as the season drags along, but at full strength in a high leverage game in front of their home crowd I would expect O’Connell to have an attacking mindset.

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get a rematch of the opening Thursday game from last season but this year Dallas is at home. These teams look quite a bit different now and I’m somewhat surprised to see this game at a 50.5 total and equally surprised to see Tampa only favored by two points when Dallas receiving corps is “CeeDee Lamb and….who?”

Dallas

The run game started to see more of a split between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard as last year’s season went on, and the question is, will that continue over into 2022? Pollard was more effective in both the run game and the passing game, averaging 5.5 yards per carry to Zeke’s 4.1, and catching over 80% of his targets for 8.5 yards per catch vs. Zeke’s 70% catch rate for 6 yards per catch. More importantly, Dallas is incredibly thin on offensive weapons. Amari Cooper is gone and Michael Gallup is injured. We often hear coachspeak in the offseason about teams using multiple running backs on the field at the same time, and generally, I just ignore it because it almost never happens but maybe this is when it will? Given their prices, and given the overall situation with the Cowboys offense, I’m not grouping out lineups that pair Zeke and Pollard together, and I’m including Pollard as a pass catcher in my optimizer rules for Dak captain rosters. I think Zeke might come in underowned in this one because he finished last season so horribly, but despite that, he still rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored 12 total touchdowns. He was also playing hurt so he should be fresher now. Could he recapture his old form? I don’t know, and of course, the matchup is absolutely atrocious against a Bucs defense that is nearly impossible to run against but if all of this causes his ownership to be minuscule, I think it’s worth a bite. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Dallas has CeeDee Lamb as the only locked-in wide receiver, and Dalton Schultz at tight end. Beyond that, rookie Jalen Tolbert has apparently not impressed in camp and I saw beat reporter speculation that he may even be a healthy scratch; it’s hard for me to imagine that given how thin they are but it’s certainly possible that he doesn’t play a lot. Lamb and Schultz should both see as many targets as they can handle, and while Lamb is priced like an alpha WR, Schultz looks a bit on the cheap side relative to the targets he could see. It’s safe to say that it’s a bit of a mess behind Lamb and Schultz. Noah Brown should have a safe role but has never been any kind of special talent, I view him as having a median projection similar to a kicker (and at a similar price) but with a wider range of outcomes. Simi Fehoko should see some run here and at just $200 he makes a reasonable punt option. If Tolbert is inactive we could see . . . good lord, someone like Dennis Houston, Jake Ferguson, or even tiny KaVontae Turpin. This is a tough situation to unravel and it could easily be the case that the offense just flows through Lamb, Schultz, and the running backs with none of the other wide receivers doing much of anything, so personally, I wouldn’t lock-button even a min price guy like Fehoko. I wish I could clarify this for you all, but I think we’re going to have to wait for beat reporter info and inactives to try and figure this one out. This is a game for which I would really, REALLY encourage you to be active in our Discord leading up to it as we try to figure out what the hell the Cowboys are going to do. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 1 closes out with the Broncos visiting the Seahawks in a 44 total game with Denver favored by a whopping seven points (quite a haul for a road team). For those doing the math at home, that means our home team Seahawks have a team total of just 18.5, which is a rare low number, especially for such a brand name team. Of course, Seattle has moved on from Russell Wilson, who is now in Denver. Good job on the scheduling here, NFL, to get us a few grudge matches to start the season!

Seattle

We’ll start with Seattle and their run game. Rookie back Kenneth Walker is surprisingly listed as questionable but nothing I can find makes it look like he has any realistic chance to play so this seems to just be Pete Carroll being a jerk with his injury news power plays once again. Rashaad Penny should be the guy here and we can expect a large workload. After Penny took over last season, he saw 16+ carries in four of five games to close out the year. What he isn’t likely to see is much passing game work so he’s basically a 2-down back albeit with a voluminous role and a coach who is unlikely to tilt to the passing game almost no matter the game situation. Penny’s ceiling is high relative to his salary but his floor is somewhat shaky with no meaningful passing game role unless he gets into the end zone. Behind Penny, some combination of Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas will pick up passing down work and backup snaps, with Homer more likely to be the primary receiving back. Both are in play as punt options at cheap prices.

The Seattle passing attack is likely going to be a mess with Geno Smith at quarterback. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both elite talents, but Smith will hold them back, as will Seattle’s run-first philosophy. Both should be viewed as tourney-only plays in a tough matchup, but both are certainly capable of booming here despite a tough matchup. Dee Eskridge is in play as the WR3 and a cheap punt option. At tight end, we have a confusing situation. Noah Fant has always been viewed as a strong receiving option but Seattle’s preseason use of him was discouraging, to say the least. The Seahawks also gave Will Dissly a big contract, and Dissly is the better blocker, which supports Seattle’s run-first strategy. Fant can be played here, it’s not as if he won’t see the field, but I am very down on him and would prefer Dissly.