Kickoff Sunday, Sep 11th 4:25pm Eastern

Raiders (
24.5) at

Chargers (
28)

Over/Under 52.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
22nd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
32nd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
19th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
6th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
11th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
18th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • An exciting Week 1 rematch of last year’s Week 18 “win and you’re in” game these two teams played.
  • The new coaching staff and personnel for the Raiders lead to uncertainty about how they will approach this game.
  • Continuity for the Chargers gives us a good idea of what they will do and how they will try to do it.
  • The tempo and aggressiveness through the air of the Chargers are likely to be the catalyst that gets this game to the levels its game total would lead you to expect.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

This year’s Raiders team has a lot of interesting dynamics to consider and evaluate entering the season and as the season plays out. After a season in which they overcame a ton of adversity and made the playoffs, they now have a new coaching staff and front office. They also made a splash with the acquisition of Davante Adams to raise their offensive personnel from average to very good seemingly overnight. The Raiders also committed to Derek Carr with a three-year, $121 million contract extension in April, locking up that duo for the foreseeable future. Change can be a good thing, but there are also often some bumps along the way. One of the bigger questions heading into this season for this team is how the new staff and front office will handle players brought in by the previous regime. Josh Jacobs appears to be on the hot seat as the de facto starting running back, and the team cut 2021 first-round draft pick, offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood, in August.

Heading into the season, we can look at Josh McDaniels’ history and background to guide us in what we expect from the Raiders. The biggest thing to keep in mind is that McDaniels has a background with the Patriots, and their main objective is to play to their personnel and create their offense around the strengths of their players. This is where things get really interesting. The Raiders clearly have a strength in their passing game, with Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow creating a passing attack with multiple weapons whose strengths should seemingly complement each other well. However, the Raiders offensive line is one that has weaknesses in pass protection and personnel that seems better suited to succeed in the running game than in protection.

For this specific game, the Raiders could have some issues on their hands when they try to throw the ball – mainly the dynamic pass rush that the Chargers present that has been bolstered by the addition of Khalil Mack this offseason. The threat of the Chargers pass rush overwhelming the Raiders line, as well as the presence of All-Pro safety Derwin James leading a strong secondary, should make for trouble for Carr and the passing attack. The Chargers ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical category last season against the run. Given the issues they will have in pass protection, the strengths of their offensive line lying in run blocking, the Chargers clear “path of least resistance” on the ground, and the desire to keep Justin Herbert off the field – it is safe to say the Raiders will have a balanced to run heavy attack to start this season-opening matchup. Adams, Waller, and Renfrow are all very technically sound route runners and can win in short areas of the field, making it likely that the Raiders will have an offense designed for quick hitting passes when they do take to the air and will use a heavy dose of play-action passing to keep the Chargers pass rush honest.

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Overview

  • Tied for 2nd highest total (52.5)
  • LAC favored by 3.5
  • These teams split games last season: (LV-14 LAC-28) // (LAC-32 LV-35 OT)
  • Both teams started 2021 4-1 (LV’s loss was to LAC)
  • Both teams have won 3 straight in WK 1 
  • LAC only scored 20 pts in last season’s WK 1 game 
  • They scored 16 pts in 2020’s WK 1 gm (Tyrod Taylor)
  • LV points last 3 WK 1 games: (33 // 34 // 24)

Derek Carr

  • LV finished 6th in pass yds/g (269.4) 
  • LAC allowed the 10th least (221.2)
  • Carr had 20+ DK pts in 5 of 7 to start last season (28.0 // 27.2 // 25.2 // 15.4 // 8.2 // 24.5)
  • He only broke 20+ DK pts once thereafter incl playoffs (24.0) (10 gms)
  • Last season Carr @ LAC (21:34:196:2TDs:1INT // 15.4 DK pts) // Vs LAC (20:36:2TDs // 15.3 DK pts)
  • LAC allowed 18.6 DK pts to QBs last season (T-13th least)

Davante Adams

  • Carr & Adams played 2 years together at Fresno St: (233 catches:3,031 yds:36 TDs)
  • Adams T-2nd in targets last season: 169 (10.6/g) 
  • He had 9 of 17 games w/ 10+ tgts incl playoffs (18 // 11 // 16 // 14 // 11 // 13 // 13 // 14 // 11)
  • Adams finished 3rd in yds (1,553) // 2nd in yds/g (97.1) // 2nd in rec (123) 
  • He had 8 gms w/ 100+ yds: (121 // 132 // 206 // 115 // 104 // 121 // 114 // 136) 
  • And 9 w/ 10 + targets incl playoffs: (18 // 11 // 16 // 14 // 11 // 13 // 13 // 14 // 11)
  • $8.1k is the cheapest he’s been on DK since WK 10 last season

Hunter Renfrow

  • Renfrow T-17th among WRs in tgts/g in the reg season (7.5/g) 
  • He had 3 games w/ 10+ tgts incl playoffs (10 // 14 // 11)
  • 21% team tgt share last season
  • Renfrow had 4 games w/ 20+ DK pts 
  • One happened when Waller left in 2nd qtr (24.6)
  • 3 others when Waller was out (22.2 // 32.7 // 20.6)
  • Renfrow @ LAC: (6:45:1 TD-8 tgts // 16.5 DK pts) // vs LAC (4:13:2 TDs-5 tgts // 16.9 DK pts) 
  • LAC allowed 30.4 DK pts/g to WRs last season (4th least)

Darren Waller

  • Waller only played 9 games including the playoffs last season 
  • He had 3 games with 10+ tgts 
  • 8.5 tgts/g ranked 2nd among TEs (not including playoffs)
  • Best game by far came in WK 1 vs BAL: (10:105:1TD-19 tgts // 29.5 DK pts)
  • Waller vs LAC in ‘21: (4:50:1TD-7 tgts) // (2:22-9 tgts)
  • LAC allowed 17.5 DK pts to TEs last season (highest in NFL)

Josh Jacobs

  • In the last 7 games of the regular season, Jacobs had 20+ rush attempts 3 times (22 // 27 // 26)
  • He had 100+ rush yds in two of those (his only games w/ 100+ yds)
  • LV was 4th in tgt % to RBs (24%)
  • Jacobs saw 4.3 tgts/g including playoffs
  • LAC allowed 28.4 DK pts to RBs last season (3rd most)

Justin Herbert

  • LAC avg 282.4 pass yds/g (3rd most) 
  • LV allowed 223.0 (12th least)
  • Herbert finished 2nd among QBs in fantasy ppg (23.3)
  • He threw for 300+ yds in 9 of 17 gms: (337 // 338 // 398 // 356 // 382 // 303 // 317 // 336 // 383)
  • 41 total TDs: 38 Pass (3rd) // 3 Rush
  • Herbert vs LV: (25:38:222:3 TDs // 21.3 DK pts) // @ LV (34:64:383:3 TDs:1 INT // 31.4 DK pts)
  • LV allowed 18.7 DK pts to QBs last season (middle of league)

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams

  • Allen had 157 tgts (WR8 // avg 9.8 tgts/g) 
  • Williams had 129 (T-WR14 // avg 8.1 tgts/g)
  • Tgt Share: Allen (24%) // Williams (20%)
  • Allen’s DK price hasn’t been under $7k since WK 11 last season 
  • Williams’ hasn’t been over $6.6k since WK 9 last season
  • Rec TDs: (Allen 6) // (Williams 9)
  • LV allowed 31.7 DK pts/g to WRs last season (5th least)

Austin Ekeler:

  • Ekeler T-1st in RB tgts (94) // T-2nd in RB tgts/g (5.9)
  • He had at least 3 receptions in every game but two
  • Target Share: (14%)
  • RB2 in PPR ppg: (21.5 pts)
  • 20 TDs in 16 gms (12 rush:8 rec)
  • Ekeler had 9 gms w/ 20+ DK pts: (22.5 // 22.7 // 32.5 // 33.9 // 24.4 // 41.5 // 21.9 // 20.2 // 28.9)
  • He’s been at least $8.2k on DK in 6 straight gms // only broke 3x salary once in those 6 (3.44x // 28.9 pts)
  • Ekeler vs LV: (rush 15:117:1 TD // rec 3:28:1 TD-5 tgts // 33.9 DK pts) // @ LV (rush 16:64:1 TD rec 5:35:1 TD-12 tgts // 28.9 DK pts)
  • Scored both a rushing & receiving TD in both games vs LV
  • LV allowed 28.4 DK pts/g to RBs last season (3rd most)