Kickoff Sunday, Sep 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
25.25) at

Jets (
18.75)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
9th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
8th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
20th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
8th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
5th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
7th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Baltimore attempted 35.9 passes per game in 2021 after attempting 25.9 passes per game in 2020.
  • Ravens could be without their top two running backs to start the season.
  • Perennial underachiever Mike Davis, recent signing Kenyan Drake, and depth piece Justice Hill round out the running back depth chart behind J.K. Dobbins and PUP-lister Gus Edwards.
  • The Jets could be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco following the knee injury to starting quarterback Zach Wilson in the first preseason game.
  • The question from this one shouldn’t be “what is the likeliest game flow,” the question should be “how do we expect the Ravens to try and win this game knowing the issues with their backfield?”

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens were the most outlier team in the league last year when compared to how they normally try and win games under Harbaugh. What I mean by that is this – they threw the football 35.9 times per game in 2021 after throwing the football 25.9 times per game in 2020, due in large part to the massive amount of injuries they had both before the season started (their top three running backs were lost for the season) and during the season (multiple offensive linemen and countless members of their defense, including at all three levels). As such, we should expect this team to regress to their norm moving forward as a team whose identity is built from the run game. That said, they are about to start the season without Gus Edwards and potentially J.K. Dobbins, meaning we could see a backfield led by Mike Davis and newcomer Kenyan Drake. Should that be the case (if Dobbins is held out or is limited in Week 1), we have a very interesting discussion on our hands. Would this team try and run an inefficient rusher and a back that has been with the team for less than two weeks or would they place the game in the hands of their otherworldly quarterback Lamar Jackson?

Let’s start with a recent quote from Harbaugh regarding his backfield. “…if J.K. can go out right now, that would be great. I would be excited. He had a good practice today. If not, we have the guys that will play. So, we’re good either way.” Man, talk about a vote of confidence. If ever there were a quote that said absolutely nothing, that would be it. The most troubling thing, for me, was the addition of Kenyan Drake late in the preseason, which likely signals growing concern surrounding their lead running back heading into the year. That supposition garners additional support via recent videos out of Baltimore practices, showing Dobbins with a noticeable limp following individual drills. Regardless, I think it prudent to operate under the assumption we either see Baltimore without their lead back or see him limited in Week 1, which brings us back to the question of “how do we think Baltimore will try to win this game with a backfield consisting primarily of Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake?” Davis is a career 3.7 yards per carry, having played on five different teams over his eight-year career, while Drake was brought to town at the end of August, just 11 days before the first game of the season. With that exploration in mind, this is a good matchup on the ground for the Ravens. The Jets are fresh off a season where they allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of 28 total touchdowns allowed to the position, 23 of which came via rushing scores.
The departure of Marquise Brown this offseason leaves Baltimore’s primary pass-catchers as newly anointed alpha Rashod Bateman, dynamic tight end Mark Andrews, and third-year return man Devin Duvernay. Baltimore ran 11-personnel only 43% of the time in 2021, behind only two offenses that played tight ends heavily as wide receivers in Miami and Atlanta. One of the biggest offseason storylines regarding Baltimore pass-catchers is fourth-round rookie tight end Isaiah Likely, who many Best Ball drafters assume will garner a large role to begin the year. That said, Likely is a raw prospect that struggles with blocking technique, a notable development considering the identity of this team. As in, how many snaps are the Ravens truly going to allot to a tight end that is a poor blocker considering typical route participation rates from their TE2 (their TE2 last season were Eric Tomlinson (18% route participation rate), Nick Boyle (28% route participation rate), and Josh Oliver (59% route participation rate))? Regardless, Likely is currently listed as the third tight end on the depth chart and should be considered likely to start the season in a minimal role. James Proche should man the slot in what should amount to a part-time role. The reworked secondary of the Jets appears liable to cede major production to opposing tight ends once more after allowing 15.4 DraftKings points per game to the position in 2021 and bringing in D.J. Reed, Sauce Gardner, LaMarcus Joyner, and Jordan Whitehead this offseason.

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OVERVIEW

  • BAL has the sixth highest implied team total, NYJ has the fourth lowest
  • The spread is the second widest
  • BAL’s final score in Week 1 the past few years: 27 // 38 // 59 // 47

Lamar Jackson

  • 8th in YPA & 2nd in ADoT last year
  • 11.1 rushing attempts for 63.9 yds led all QBs in both categories
  • 22.3 DK ppg ranked 6th
  • Scored 35+ DK pts three times (35.6, 37.3, 45.9)
  • Otherwise did not crack 25 pts
  • $7,300 DK salary is the third most expensive
  • NYJ ranked 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.1)
  • Three opposing QBs scored 25+ DK pts vs. NYJ

BAL Passing Attack

  • Rashod Bateman managed an 11% target share last season with departed Marquise Brown dominating at 23.7%
  • Bateman hit 20 DK pts once (Brown did so three times)
  • His DK salary is only $5,300
  • The remaining WRs (Devin Duvernay & James Proche) averaged fewer than three targets per game
  • NYJ ranked 8th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.8)
  • Stefon Diggs was the only WR to hit 20+ DK pts vs. NYJ (twice)
  • Mark Andrews led all TEs in DK scoring with 18.7 ppg
  • He scored 29+ DK pts four times
  • His $6,800 DK salary is the highest at the position
  • NYJ ranked 28th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (15.9)
  • Two TEs scored 20+ DK pts vs. NYJ (Rob Gronkowski & Dallas Goedert)

BAL Rushing Attack

  • As of a week before kickoff, J.K. Dobbins is uncertain to play (while Gus Edwards is on PUP)
  • Remaining RBs Mike Davis, Kenyan Drake, & Justice Hill may have to split the work in Week 1
  • 29 year old Davis hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since filling Christian McCaffrey’s shoes two years ago
  • 28 year old Drake has scored 20+ DK pts three times in the last two seasons
  • Should Dobbins play, his $5,600 DK salary is the only BAL RB salar above $5k
  • NYJ ranked dead last in DK ppg allowed to RBs (33.9)
  • Five RBs scored 25+ DK pts vs. NYJ last season

Joe Flacco

  • In his lone preseason appearance, Flacco earned a 29.5 PFF passing grade
  • His average DK ppg the past three seasons: 12.4 // 11.6 // 12
  • Flacco costs just $4,800 to roster on DK in Week 1
  • BAL ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs last season (21.4)
  • BAL allowed 25+ DK pts to QBs on five separate occasions last year

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Target shares last season: Elijah Moore 12.8% // Jamison Crowder 11.8% // Braxton Berrios 10.8% // Corey Davis 9.8%
  • Crowder is no longer on the team, but they did draft Garrett Wilson 10th overall in this year’s draft
  • Moore scored 20+ DK pts three times in 11 games
  • His Week 1 DK salary is $5,100
  • Wilson ranked 19th in PFF passing grade in the NCAA last season & 14th in YPRR
  • In the preseason, Wilson caught 6/8 targets for 52 yds
  • He costs $4,700 to roster in Week 1
  • Berrios scored 15+ DK pts twice last year (15 vs. JAX // 26.7 vs. TB)
  • He costs $4,000 in Week 1
  • BAL ranked 30th in DK ppg allowed last season to WRs (40)
  • Their secondary was decimated by injuries
  • TE1 on the NYJ depth chart is Tyler Conklin
  • In the preseason, he more than doubled C.J. Uzomah in targets
  • Conklin’s scored 12+ DK pts four times in his career
  • His Week 1 DK salary is $3,500
  • BAL ranked 27th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Three TEs scored 20+ DK pts vs. BAL last season (Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, & Uzomah)
  • Uzomah costs $3,600 to roster

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • NYJ drafted Breece Hall (Iowa State) in the 2nd round of this year’s draft to join Michael Carter in the RB room
  • In the preseason, both backs averaged 2.1 YPA with nearly identical PFF rushing grades
  • Carter saw three targets, Hall zero
  • As a rookie last year, Carter scored 15+ DK pts four times (including 32.2 vs. CIN) and averaged 3.9 targets per game
  • PFF ranks the NYJ offensive line as the 12th best
  • Hall & Carter are priced within $400 of each other in DK salary
  • BAL ranked 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.3)
  • Only Joe Mixon scored over 20 DK pts vs. BAL (31.5)