Kickoff Sunday, Sep 11th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
27) at

Lions (
21.5)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
24th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
13th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
1st DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
23rd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
6th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Not a ton to love in the way of guaranteed points from this one, even with a lofty 49.0 game total.
  • The likeliest game flow has each team running their preferred plan of attack deep into the game.
  • Each team prefers to share the load on the ground, and each passing offense is far from concentrated.
  • Some interesting “alternate game flows” here, designated as such due to the lower likelihood of actually happening (if you’re new to OWS, first of all . . . WELCOME! Secondly, in games that have a fair chance of developing in ways the field might not be employing, we typically provide a full “tributary” write-up that dives into the likeliest way for the game to play differently than public perception).

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Here’s the thing with the Eagles – we don’t really know how they’re going to try and win games to start the year. We saw the two extremes from this squad last year, showcasing a robust 63% overall pass rate over the first six weeks of the season and then leading the league in overall rush rate the remainder of the season with an insanely low 44% overall pass rate. We know why they chose to approach things differently last year, we know they have the projected top overall offensive line in the league heading into 2022, and we know they went ham in free agency to acquire A.J. Brown to run with DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and Dallas Goedert. Which side wins, the run or the pass? Furthermore, the team has been aggressive through free agency over the previous two seasons on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. They’ve brought in Darius Slay, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Marcus Epps, and James Bradberry during that timeframe, each of whom will begin the season as starters. Add it all up and your guess is as good as mine, but most signs point back to a run-balanced approach and aerial game capable of inflicting massive damage through both yards after the catch ability and deep strike play-making ability. Although pace of play can’t be considered a “sticky” statistic year-over-year, one of the more predictive pace statistics is first-half pace of play, and the Eagles ranked ninth in that category last season (fifth overall). So, my most educated guess is fast-paced, run-focused, with the talent and explosiveness through the air to inflict heavy damage all at once.

Oh man, where to even begin on the ground? The “RB1” on this team is very likely their quarterback, the “RB1 on paper” might miss this contest with a hamstring injury (Miles Sanders), and the team recently brought in ex-49er Trey Sermon to join Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott as “more than depth” pieces. On the other side, the Lions did some work this offseason to bolster their 4-3 base defense, drafting Aiden Hutchinson second overall to pair with Michael Brockers, Alim McNeill, and Charles Harris up front. As in, the Lions might not cede 21.4 points per game to opposing running backs like they did last year (second worst in the league), particularly considering they only gave up 57 total receptions to the position last year (tied for the fewest in the league). At best, this Eagles run game is a three-headed monster with Hurts, Sanders (or Scott), and Gainwell, and at worst it’s a four-headed monster.

As I alluded to above, I don’t expect we’ll see volume be the primary contributor to fantasy goodness from the Eagles this season. As such, we want to look for opportunities to target this unit at low ownership and largely fade them if they are expected to carry anything resembling heavy ownership. Any one of Brown, Smith, Watkins, or Goedert can wreak havoc on five to seven targets, which is honestly the likeliest range of targets for each of them on a given week. Brown would be the most obvious player to see volume higher than that range on a weekly basis. Furthermore, this Lions secondary ceded the most yards per pass attempt (7.6) and second most yards per completion (11.6) in the league last season. More on this situation below in the DFS+ Interpretation section.

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Fifth highest Vegas game total in Week 1
  • PHI’s implied total of 26.25 ranks fifth
  • Each team boasts a top 5 offensive line, per PFF rankings

Jalen Hurts

  • Middle of the pack in PFF passing grade & YPA last year (14th), but finished third in ADoT
  • His 21.9 DK ppg ranked 8th, while his 9.3 rushing attempts per game ranked 2nd
  • He scored 25+ pts six times
  • PHI tied for last in passing attempts per game last season (29.1)
  • However, Hurts had 34+ attempts in 5 of their first 7 games
  • In his only preseason appearance this year, PHI called a pass play on all of his snaps
  • His $6,800 DK salary is the 6th highest
  • DET ranked 20th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Three opposing QBs scored 25+ DK pts vs. DET

PHI Passing Attack

  • DeVonta Smith averaged 6.1 targets per game for a 21.1% target share last season
  • He managed 20+ DK pts twice
  • His DK salary is only $5,500 in Week 1
  • A.J. Brown averaged 8.1 targets (19.6% target share) for the similarly run-heavy Titans
  • He scored 30+ DK pts three times
  • His $6,400 DK salary is the 9th highest
  • DET ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Only two WRs scored 20+ pts vs. DET (although Cooper Kupp put up 40.6)
  • Dallas Goedert averaged 5.1 targets per game for a 15.4% target share (10th)
  • His 11.4 DK ppg ranked 7th
  • He scored 15+ DK pts three times
  • Goedert’s $4,500 DK salary is the 8th highest
  • DET ranked 24th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.2)
  • Only Mark Andrews scored over 15 pts vs. DET (18.9)

PHI Rushing Attack

  • Team snap share: Miles Sanders 45.6% // Kenneth Gainwell 26.6% // Boston Scott 19.6%
  • Rush share: Sanders 35% // Scott 22.3% // Gainwell 17.4%
  • Target share: Gainwell 10.1% // Sanders 6.9% // Scott 3.2%
  • Red zone touch share: Jalen Hurts 22% // Sanders 16% // Scott 14% // Gainwell 14%
  • Each RB had a single 20+ DK pt game
  • Their DK salaries are all within a $4,500 – $5,400 range
  • DET ranked 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.3)
  • Five RBs scored 25+ DK pts vs. DET (including two 35+ efforts)

Jared Goff

  • 24th in PFF passing grade, 26th in YPA, & 30th in ADoT
  • 14.9 DK ppg, with four 20+ pt outings
  • PHI’s defensive line ranks 9th per PFF
  • Last season, they ranked 5th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.2)
  • Four opposing QBs scored 25+ pts vs. PHI (Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, & Trevor Siemian)

DET Passing Attack

  • From Weeks 13-18, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked 6th in PFF receiving grade, 3rd in total targets, 5th in YPRR, & 12th in YAC/rec
  • His DK log during that stretch: 24.8, 15.3, 23.5, 26, 38.4, 29.1
  • His $6,100 DK salary is the 13th most expensive
  • Newcomer D.J. Chark averaged 15.7 DK ppg for JAX in 2019, then 12 in 2020, & 8.6 in 2021
  • He had one target in the preseason, thrown 15 yards down the field
  • In PFF passing grade on deep targets, Goff has ranked 35th, 34th, 23rd, 8th, 6th, 28th (in reverse chronological order)
  • Chark costs $4,800 on DK to roster in Week 1
  • PHI ranked 2nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs (28.2)
  • Only three opposing WRs scored 20+ DK pts (although Tyreek Hill scored 50.6)
  • T.J. Hockenson averaged 6.9 targets per game last year (5th)
  • His 12.1 DK ppg ranked 5th
  • He scored 15+ DK pts in a third of his games (including 20+ twice)
  • His $4,900 DK salary is the 6th highest on the slate
  • PHI ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.8)
  • Four opposing TEs scored 15+ pts vs. PHI (Dalton Schultz did so twice)

D’Andre Swift

  • Swift tied with Fournette for most targets per game
  • His 16.8 DK ppg ranked 12th
  • He scored 20+ DK pts in 5/12 healthy games (including 25+ twice)
  • His $6,800 DK salary is the 9th highest
  • PHI ranked 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (25.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Ezekiel Elliott 26.6 // Leonard Fournette 30.7