Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Happy New Year! What a season it’s been, and how cool it is that it’s not over yet.

Week 18 is a week unlike any other, for obvious reasons. Best Ball seasons are complete. Season-long fantasy leagues have concluded. Playoff spots are mostly clinched, and we should know where team motivation levels sit by the time the weekend games kickoff. Yet, for Week 18, that’s just the beginning. Like always, the beauty of DFS is in the journey, not the destination. So, as long as we’re not at the destination yet, there’s no reason to feel like this last regular-season main slate cannot be tackled and conquered in the same fashion.

A Week Unlike Any Other

This last week of the regular season certainly comes with its own personality and, in some ways, comes off as the true “runt” of the pack. It’s a massive slate that should lack some star power due to healthy benchings; a slate where some teams will explore positional depth, and therefore the matchup ratings mean very little. It’s also a slate where implied totals matter as much as in Week 1, where we think we know how some teams will play and are frequently proven wrong.

So, what can I write here that will cut through the motivation noise to actually matter to us as we’re building on Sunday? The wrong answer is nothing. The right answer is price-considered upside, because pricing is one of the few constants that remains in Week 18. As much as it will be helpful to dive into motivation levels, including which teams will keep their feet on the gas, which teams don’t care about specific seeding, and more, this is still a game (DFS) where we have a salary cap, and searching for ceiling (sup Hilow, Rich!) is the only path forward on this mega-slate.

Breaking down 13-games will feel like a tall task, and surely the site will dive into each game environment later this week. However, since pricing is the only constant and price-considered upside is what we’re looking for (4X rule, as JM has coined), I’ll do a quick run through the games, but then dive into an early look at a quarterback-only player pool based on price and upside.

Sunday’s stackable games include:

• Saints // Falcons: Atlanta has something to play for this week, even if it’s simply keeping Tampa out of the postseason should they win on Saturday. This game feels exactly like the type of nothing-to-play-for shootout that could emerge, as the Saints offense is clicking lately and Atlanta knows its identity now too. Add in the factor of this being an indoors game in January…sign me up.
• Cowboys // Giants: Muting the game environment slightly since it’s in New York outdoors, but Dak Prescott and meaningless games go together like peanut butter and jam. Nobody does it better. The Giants proved last week they don’t care about draft picks, so expect them to give Jaxson Dart more opportunities to prove his worth for next season.
• Browns // Bengals: I wasn’t going to mention this matchup, but when the Bengals are involved, they make this list. I also won’t forget that Shedeur Sanders can still facilitate a shootout, even potentially without Harold Fannin Jr. Myles Garrett should break the single-season sack record, which is cool actual news, and though it may not jump off the page, there are plenty of paths for this cold-weather game to also carry significant upside.
• Titans // Jaguars: Jacksonville will score; can Tennessee keep up? I say yes, as the Jags would want to win but likely not care how. That could include building a large lead in this game and being happy to let Cam Ward march the field over and over, as long as the scoreboard remains in their favor.
• Lions // Bears: Eliminated Dan Campbell facing former OC Ben Johnson, when the Lions ran up the scoreboard back in Week 2 to the tune of 52-21. The Bears seem to have taken on the Lions identity here, and there’s little reason to expect that to change. They should want to make a statement.
• Cardinals // Rams: Jacoby Brissett against a version of the Rams we may not recognize? Yes. It’s possible Los Angeles will play their guys here, but with a QB in Stafford on a short week, gearing up for a playoff run, it doesn’t seem likely. Arizona hasn’t won a game since November 3rd (Week 8) and would like nothing more than a win to close out and end that horrific streak.
• Dolphins // Patriots: This one may be a stretch, as it is Quinn Ewers here for Miami, but he looked fine last week against a shell of the Buccaneers defense. For New England, it matters how they approach this. A win feels likely, but similar to Jacksonville, I doubt style points will matter much. A Drake Maye MVP resume has one more week to be added to, and that could be the biggest factor here in allowing him to cook late into the game.

These games all carry a wide range of outcomes, as do the offenses not listed here, like Houston, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Denver, who can all put up points in bunches (well, maybe not Houston, but you get my point). In looking for stacks, however, we need to come back to pricing. I’ll use DK as a proxy here, as FD is similarly attackable and the names carry more weight than the specific pricing discrepancies between sites. To the right is the 4X score we would need to emerge on a 200-point pace.

Early quarterback pool looks something like this:

• Dak Prescott $6.8K (27.2)
• Joe Burrow $6.7K (26.8)
• Trevor Lawrence $6.4K (25.6)
• Caleb Williams $5.9K (23.6)
• Jaxson Dart $5.7K (22.8)
• Jacoby Brissett $5.6K (22.2)
• Tyler Shough $5.3K (21.2)
• Kirk Cousins $5.1K (20.4)
• Cam Ward $4.8K (19.2)

This is not a definitive list, but it should be a good start. We will get more backups being named starters later in the week, and that should be the biggest factor here to expand the pool. But starting with teams, then quarterbacks, feels like a known path this Sunday. Week 18 brings plenty of unknowns, so find as many knowns as you can and build for those scenarios. As much as it will feel like an expanded player pool this week, the reality is a limited player pool could be the keys to victory. If we can identify which teams are going to be playing hard the entire game, we’ll already be ahead of hundreds of other rosters.

Variance is our friend and close comrade this week. Find your paths, build your edges, and give Week 18 a chance. I’ll be mixing it up here as well in the first main slate of 2026. I hope you will too, and I can’t wait to see your entries taking down tournaments come Sunday!

Thank you for reading this season!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, DEC. 30TH ::

INITIAL BIG-PICTURE VIEW OF SLATE ::

Initial thoughts :: this slate is going to be absolutely wacky.

for the first time i can ever recall, we have all but one of the playoff spots in each conference set (with the play-in games for those spots each taking place off the main slate), and almost all significant playoff seeding is set as well (with one of the only games that’s important in that regard taking place off the main slate as well).

the broncos will want the number one seed, and so will the patriots, so that buys us two teams we know will be playing starters throughout.

the jags have an outside shot at the one seed, and more importantly, they still haven’t locked up the division, so we can count on them playing this as a normal game.

the texans can win the division with a victory and a jags loss, so we can probably count on them as well.

do the chargers care about winning to protect the six seed? probably not. (i made this note before seeing the news about herbert being rested this week. looks like we already have our information here. here’s what i said initially…) we’ll see if we get any info from harbaugh this week, but we have A) a coach in harbaugh who is a “play all the guys” type of personality, but B) a banged-up quarterback who could use some rest in a meaningless game before the playoffs.

the same goes for the bills. it’s their last game at their historic stadium, but their movement in playoff seeding is minimal, and josh allen is banged up. he’ll start, but how confident are we that he plays the entire game? same goes for james cook. and we probably won’t get answers on this one until the game plays out.

on the nfc side, do the bears care about “two seed vs three seed”? do the eagles care about trying to push for the three seed? do the rams and packers care about games that are essentially meaningless? — or is health/rest before the playoffs more important?

and then of course, we have the strange situation where so many teams are already eliminated — with many having been eliminated for weeks. we usually assume that a team that was just recently eliminated will continue to play with a “business as usual” mindset; but what if you’ve been out of the playoffs for weeks? do the chiefs take a look at the young guys? do the falcons shut down drake london? what other weirdness might we run into?

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

JM’S INITIAL TEAM-MOTIVATION LEVEL PROGNOSIS ::

Here’s an early-guess primer from me, which we can rearrange as we get more information ::

PLAYING AS NORMAL ::

• dolphins
• patriots
• texans
• cowboys (probably)
• giants
• browns
• bengals
• saints
• falcons (with possibility for a london shut-down)
• vikings
• titans
• jaguars
• cardinals (for whatever that’s worth)
• broncos
• raiders
• commanders
• lions
• jets

AT RISK OF DOING SOMETHING DIFFERENT ::

• colts (riley leonard)
• packers
• rams
• chargers (confirmed)
• chiefs
• eagles
• bears
• bills

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON VIABLE PLAYS FROM TEAMS WITH NORMAL WEEK 18 OUTLOOK ::

If leaning on the “playing as normal” teams, we have opportunity for ::

• achane vs pats
• pats vs dolphins (albeit a guessing game on who might hit)
• texans offense v colts (long-shots for dfs)
• cowboys potentially closing the season strong vs the giants
• dart & co potentially closing the season strong vs dallas
• shough & co v falcons (& falcons pieces on the other side, albeit in a tough matchup)
• jags offense finishing strong vs tennessee
• (maybe a signature final game from cam ward vs the jags)
• michael wilson & trey mcbride as focal points vs a rams team likely resting some players (that’s the sean mcvay way)
• broncos offense vs a chargers team that may or may not be playing this game as normal
• lions sure to go all-out vs the bears
• bears potentially interesting in response

EAGLES/RAMS OUTLOOKs ::

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

The End Around will be live Saturday afternoon

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.4K

Tanner McKee
TreVeyon Henderson
Tank Bigsby
Darius Cooper
Jahan Dotson
Jameson Williams
Michael Wilson
Juwan Johnson
Vikings

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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An Important Note

Pete Overzet plays cash games in Week 18, so there was no Block Party podcast this week, and Squirrel Patrol just got home from Disney and said he couldn’t figure out what was going on with this slate yet, so there’s no Solo Ship this week, either.

In order to fill that content void:

1. I’ll be recording Winner Circle early this week (it should be live before the end of the day on Friday)
2. We’ll make Winner Circle available on both the Inner Circle podcast feed and the main One Week Season podcast feed this week

If you usually listen to OWS content on YouTube, you’ll need to move over to a podcast player for this one. Just search “One Week Season” on your podcast player of choice to find the feed where this podcast will be available. I’ll be talking through all the games from a high-level view, and I’ll touch on some deeper thoughts in places where deeper thoughts rise to the surface.

Finally, as you likely know: I don’t play this week. (There’s no way I’m flying out to reserve entries for such a mess of a slate! Especially when my own edge in DFS doesn’t sync up particularly well with the edges available on this week.) But I’ll still have an update on Sunday morning, touching on final thoughts based on final pieces of news that come out between now and then.

With that, let’s get to what ultimately turned into a really fun Player Grid, and a pool I really like.

Blue Chips

None

As is often the case this deep into the season (especially in the final week of the regular season!), I don’t have any plays I’m seeing as true Blue Chips this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Fly, Backup Birds”

Darius Cooper + Jahan Dotson

Story:

“Tanner McKee is at least average”

Why It Works:

The last five WR1 + WR2 pairings vs the Commanders have posted scores of 21.4 // 34.7 // 25.7 // 13.3 // 24.4, which is A) quite an underperformance for two wideouts combined vs a pass defense that still isn’t good, and is B) still a great set of scores to target for $7.1k in salary. Obviously, both of these guys will be popular this week. Both of these guys are good plays individually. But if you want to supercharge your savings, you can play these two together.

The push-back on this type of play is typically that you are limiting your ceiling, but as we have seen many times before, this isn’t actually the case. Imagine these two combining for 34 points (say 15 for one guy and 17 for the other), at price tags of $3.3k and $3.8k. Are you finding better salary-savers than that? (And even if such salary-savers are available, what are your percentage chances of finding them?) And even if they combine for “only” 20 to 25 points, you’re getting solid production for the salary spent, while having flexibility to attack whatever additional upside you want to attack across the rest of your roster.

Of course, I’ll concede that this is a stronger pairing in small-field play than it is in large-field play; but I also want to emphasize that this pairing is +EV in all formats.

How It Works:

Do we need to play McKee with this pairing? No. But you certainly multiply the power of a ceiling outcome by throwing McKee onto this build.

If starting a roster with this pairing, I’m biased toward including McKee.

But I’m also happy to add this block to a roster that’s being built around a different quarterback, and that needs some savings in order for everything to come together.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Fly, Wounded Birds

Trey McBride and Michael Wilson cost $14.1k combined, and in games mostly or fully without Marvin Harrison Jr., they have posted scores of ::

43.5 — 154-point pace
56.8 — 201
51.0 — 181
41.5 — 147
67.0 — 238

As we often talk about in situations like this :: it’s unlikely those points are split exactly down the middle…and with “worst games” of 41.5 and 43.5, a slightly uneven split of those points means we’re probably getting 24+ from one of these two guys (with pathways for that guy to score 30+; McBride has games of 30 and 40 without MHJ, and Wilson has games of 36 and 40). Can you think of another spot on the slate where you can confidently say you have a 50% shot at a score of 24+? Can you say that with Bijan? Can you say that with Gibbs? Can you say that with anyone at all? My answer is no; and with that in mind (especially with both of these guys also boasting elite ceiling), I like the idea of including one or the other of these guys on every roster this week, while also having a willingness to pair the two (which can be done with or without Brissett; though in larger-field play, I would prefer to include Brissett most of the time when playing both guys together).

The last few weeks, I have focused on rules I have used for “a set of builds exploring what’s possible with a certain combo” (i.e., rules that have said, “Do this on 100% of rosters,” but where I’m just trying to build a pile of rosters for idea-generation, and don’t actually want to use that specific rule on 100% of rosters). This week, however, I would want to run this rule in MME.

The first says, “On at least 70% of rosters, include one of McBride // Wilson” (I would be fine bumping this up to 80% or 90%, though I always like to leave a bit of wiggle room myself).

The second rule says, “On at least 15% of rosters, play both of McBride and Wilson.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Trevor Lawrence || Jared Goff || Caleb Williams || Jaxson Dart || Tanner McKee

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Bijan Robinson – We just saw him go nuts against the Rams and now gets a softer matchup and has the single season yards from scrimmage record within reach (needs 255 total yards to tie it). 
• Jaydon Blue – A disappointing rookie season for the explosive Blue could end with a massive blowup against a lowly Giants run defense. Cheap, explosive, great matchup, strong chance of good usage. The biggest concern here is simply ownership getting out of hand. I am ready to be hurt again.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – Strong matchup and explosive skill set on a week where salary is not tough to find.
• D’Andre Swift – The Bears want to lean on the run and Detroit’s defense is going to be without a lot of key players this week. Swift and Kyle Monangai are likely to be busy and one of them going for 20+ points seems like a pretty strong bet this week.
• Ashton Jeanty – A week after disappointing everyone, Jeanty is in a middling spot but still has a massive ceiling against a Chiefs team who may be vulnerable in the season’s final week.
• Jaylen Wright – A Week 18 special, Wright is a physically gifted runner who seems likely to have a huge workload at a very low salary.
• James Cook – Points still matter and the Bills are facing a Jets defense that has been playing historically bad. Cook could realistically go over 100 rushing yards with a couple of touchdowns in the first half. Salary isn’t an issue this week and if Cook goes for 30 points at low ownership he could be a key piece on the slate.

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Sonic’s MME Player pool will Return in 2026

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 18 has four games that pique my interest:

• Titans @ Jaguars (47.5)
• Cowboys @ Giants (49.5)
• Chargers @ Broncos (37.5)
• Cardinals @ Rams (46.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Titans @ Jaguars (47.5)

The Jags have been lighting up the scoreboard down the stretch. They’ve led the league in points since their Week 8 bye, and it looks like Liam Coen’s offense has fully taken hold. The Jags should be a DFS target every week, but part of my personal strategy for Week 18 is to focus on teams that need to win. The Jags need this game to secure their division and are playing at home. They’re massive (-13.5) favorites and have been playing with a “we will hang 50 on you if we can” mentality. There really isn’t a bad fantasy play among the Jags primary offensive pieces. You can justify all of them in double or triple stacks, and I don’t think you need to include a Titan. If you are looking for a Titan, Elic Ayomanor or Chimere Dike are your options. You could also go with Chig Okonkwo or Gunnar Helm, if not using Brenton Strange in your Jags stacks. I’d use any of those Titans on a Jags game stack roster, but wouldn’t be interested in them on their own. My favorite way to stack this game is Trevor Lawrence + Jakobi Meyers + Parker Washington + Brenton Strange + Elic Ayomanor.

Cowboys @ Giants (49.5)

This is a meaningless game, but both teams should treat this like any other week. The Cowboys have personal motivation. Dak Prescott is playing to lead the league in passing yards. That heightens the chances that Cowboys will come out with a pass first game plan. When the Cowboys pass, we know where it’s going. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens soak up nearly all the targets, and that makes them easy stacking choices. The Giants have also been frisky lately with the return of Jaxson Dart. Dart profiles as one of the best values on the slate, making this game stackable from either side. Wan’Dale Robinson became a real boy this season, running routes that were previously reserved for Malik Nabers. Robinson now sees intermediate and downfield work but has retained his PPR scam underneath role. The combination is great for DFS, and Robinson’s price hasn’t caught up to his value. My favorite way to stack this game is Dak + Lamb + Pickens + Robinson. (Editor’s note: Wan’Dale Robinson has been ruled out)

Chargers @ Broncos (37.5)

This game has a lowish total, but it falls into the bucket of games I want to target because of the motivation difference between the teams. The Broncos couldn’t be more motivated. They need to win to secure the number one seed. A win would give them a bye week to recover, which means they have no reason to rest anyone towards the end of this game, even if they’re well ahead on the scoreboard. They are also at home. The Chargers have already said they are going to rest their starters. That means we have one side with everything to play for, in front of a stadium ready to celebrate a great season, against a team that would rather forfeit and go home. That type of Week 18 game often ends with the side that is trying to win dominating by more than the market expects. The Broncos might put up 35 points in the first half, and even in a 35-0 game script, would probably still play their starters into the third quarter. That’s a worst-case scenario for game script, and if the Chargers backups show any signs of life, the Broncos could keep using their starters for the entire game. My favorite way to stack this game is Nix + Harvey + Sutton + Broncos D. I’d rather build for a Broncos smash that ignores a bring back.

Cardinals @ Rams (46.5)

This would be my favorite game environment if the Rams try to win. Sean McVay has said they’re going to play hard, but realistically, their motivation hinges on the result of the NFC showdown on Saturday. If the 49ers win, the Rams automatically become the sixth seed. If the Seahawks win, the Rams can become the fifth seed with a win. That might not seem like much, but this year, being the fifth seed means a first round matchup with the winner of the NFC South. That’s a big advantage, since the NFC South’s winner is clearly the weakest team that will make the playoffs. If the Seahawks win on Sunday, I’ll be highly interested in stacking this game from both sides, particularly in builds that start with Jacoby Brissett. If the 49ers win, I’ll still have interest in Brissett, Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride, but I won’t play Rams, no matter what McVay says going into the game. My favorite way to stack this game, if it matters to the Rams, is Brissett + Wilson + McBride + Williams.

Key Values

Tanner McKee ($4,500)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 18 Topics

1. C’est Finis

2. Stack SZN

3. Floating Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. C’est Finis

The Question ::

It is finished. (Or will be after this). The regular season comes to an end this week and always provides a unique challenge and opportunity for us.

What strategies do you see for your approach to this week in particular that may not work out every year but you believe, over time, give you the best chance to take advantage of the uncertainty that Week 18 provides? Also, do you have a particular type of contest that you prefer on this unique slate?

The Answers ::

JM >>

My strategy is to not play this slate, and my preferred style of contest is none…

Which I mention because I do think that if you feel your edge is lower than normal this week, you should consider doing the same.

That said :: there are some DFS players for whom the edge is greater this week; and if that’s the case for you, you should embrace that.

Since I still spend as much time with this slate as I do with any other, and prepare content, etc., I’ll also give an answer that I might give if I were playing…

I think one of the main pitfalls of this slate is treating it TOO differently than other slates. We’re still looking for good plays that can put up big raw scores.

We say all the time that DFS is not a game of “picking players.” But to take that a step further :: a sharp player pool will rarely be enough to win you a tourney; but a bad player pool will be enough to lose your money.

Don’t get so caught up in the uniqueness of this week that you end up with a sub-optimal player pool. Stick to the basics, regardless of what this week throws at you.

Xandamere >>

I’m just going to note something here that we have some history on, which is the history of Milly Maker tournament wins in the final weeks of the season. Now, keep in mind that the Milly Maker almost always has some off the board plays because of how big the tournament is – you don’t HAVE to go off the board to be successful in DFS, you just have to choose your contests wisely. But, in the final weeks of NFL seasons, we generally see lower cumulative ownership take down Milly Makers. 

Last year’s Milly Maker winner in Week 18 had a fair bit of chalk – specifically a ~40% Bijan Robinson and a ~32% Michael Carter. The lowest owned play was a 5.5% Jakobi Meyers. It was a weird lineup for a final week! In 2023, the last week was won by a Ravens stack (They scored 56 points) and it had both Wan’dale Robinson and Darius Slayton with no other Giants(or Rams, for that matter). This roster only had 2 players over 10% ownership, and they were ~11% and ~12%. That’s more like the Week 17 stuff we’re used to seeing – but what’s worth noting is it didn’t have any rando backup/bench players on it. 

I could go back farther, of course (but it’s a very manual exercise). The point is – we generally see more weirdness in the last week because teams do weirder stuff. We try to predict what teams are going to play starters and what teams are going to care, and we’re generally decent at that, but what we can’t always predict are things like…

1. It’s the last week and some teams have just been playing it out for a while now. Look, these are professionals, they aren’t just going to do nothing…but it’s hard to keep up full-on, full-out motivation all the time when you have nothing to play for (haven’t any of you ever kind of checked out the last day of work before a vacation?).
2. Some teams might play starters but are really focused on the playoffs. They might not play as hard – they might play it safe, try to avoid injury. 
3. Some teams might rest starters but not play the guy(s) we expect. It’s been really common to see a starting RB rested, everybody jumps on the RB2, but it’s actually the RB4 who gets all the work.

We know less than we think we do. We can still play good plays. We can still find teams that are likely to care the whole game and play hard. Just recognize that the chalk is more fragile than normal. 

Hilow >>

This slate honestly has a much different feel than a “normal” Week 18 main slate in that there are almost no teams playing for anything meaningful like playoff seeding. What we do have is a ton of teams with limitless uncertainty regarding personnel – who will be playing, how long will they be playing, and how does that influence offensive game plans? Those are the big questions to sort through this week. We have some clues around the slate, but a lot of it also comes down to variance, how we manipulate that variance in our favor, and how we marry our acceptance of variance to the contest we are playing.

As you might have guessed, I will be leaning into that variance on this particular Week 18 main slate, looking to take some shots in the $25 DK Milly Maker. I think there are bound to be more mistakes made by the field this week and I want to position myself in the best spot to make the most money when (or if) I get things right.
From a macro perspective, we must add another layer of the player evaluation equation this week, and I think JM summarized that really well in his journal on discord. The example he gave referenced Puka Nacua, assigning percentages to the chances of him both hitting ceiling and playing a full allotment of snaps.

Mike >>

I am basically the inverse of JM on this question. I think there are massive edges on this slate, and I believe I am uniquely skilled at exploiting them, which makes this my favorite slate of the year. There are a lot of landmines out there for people to find and if you don’t know how to navigate things or limit your player pool effectively, it becomes hard to win something. This basically takes out such a large portion of the field that it makes the path to the top feel easier for me. I believe I have a better read on most situations than almost all DFS players and also love the volatility that Week 18 presents, which makes everyone uncomfortable. It really is the best week of the year.

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2. Stack SZN

The Question ::

This is a week where there is likely to be very spread out ownership and almost every game has a very wide range of outcomes. That leaves us in a spot where it is easy to spread ourselves too thin and/or end up trying to account for every spot, which we know is a -EV way to play that actually hurts our chances of binking something. With that in mind and a focus on keeping our eye on the ball, what are your favorite stacks and/or player blocks to target this week?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

We made it. The final week of the regular season. The playoffs will be even better, but this has been a fun one, an atypical year overall with surprising playoff teams and seeding shaping up throughout both conferences. An atypical season can only wrap up with an atypical week, which can be said for just about every Week 18 that we’ve enjoyed over the years. As the NFL let the season go on one week longer, there seems to be less and less at stake across the board, and this week (especially on the non-primetime Sunday main slate) is no exception. If you’re late to the party, I’d direct you to The Scroll to get the best macro layout of the week. It’s likely we are all in sync on who is playing for what, so I’d like to stay on brand and keep this ultimate piece short and to the point. 

Many DFS players will omit themselves from playing this Week 18 slate, as there is a limit to how many cheap, backup players we can be offered before the playing field just feels saturated. I actually think this slate, along with Weeks 1 and 17 offer some of the most fun of any during the season because they are easily the most variant of the bunch. In many ways, as mentioned in the Angles email, this slate really is the runt of the litter. Smaller, weaker, and less defined than its siblings. But the only cause and effect that I see here is to be wary of how much you put at stake due to the variance. In other words, you should feel empowered to attack this slate just as the others, just try to control for more variance, and as always, do so responsibly, knowing that in most games we can have coaches and players doing phantom benching, etc. Just like its brothers and sisters, Week 18 presents us with a picture, and so, as always, we’re going to tilt it a bit right or left and see if we can’t find some unique angles to draw up and vault up those leaderboards. Let’s go…

Matthew Stafford + Konata Mumpfield + Terrance Ferguson + Michael Wilson + Trey McBride

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Strategy for Underdog’s “The Gauntlet” & “The Mitten”

(Updated 12/30/2025)

Overview 

• Six-player snake draft comprised of ten rounds in a Best Ball tournament format.
• Teams are made up of 10 total players with a starting lineup of five players: 1 QB, 2 WR/TE, 1 RB, and 1 Flex.
• Advancement rates vary by contest:
  • The Gauntlet: four-round structure through the Super Bowl, with the top team advancing out of a group of six in the first round, followed by one team advancing out of a group of six in the second round, and then one out of a group of five in the third round. The finals are composed of 500 teams in the Super Bowl with $500,000 up top. 
  • The Mitten’s advancement is easier in round one (top two of six advance), but then more difficult in the second round (1 of 10) and the conference championships round (also 1 of 10), before a 375-team Super Bowl.

• Getting out of the first round is crucial, but difficult if drafting four or more players from bye teams (as of this writing, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos) in a 1 of 6 advance structure like The Gauntlet.
• Like a Milly Maker on DK, the payout structure is extremely top heavy. 

• The last two bullets bring up an interesting dilemma as the two bye teams are the most likely to make the conference final and Super Bowl, but drafting several of those players also hampers your chances of getting out of the first round. 

• To win, you will likely need (at least) five players to reach the Super Bowl. This incentivizes stacking your lineups to consolidate around a few teams you are hoping can make deep playoff runs; however, an aggressive stacking strategy has its trade-offs. If you prioritize stacking elite contenders, this will likely have you drafting some poorly projected depth players to round out your team. Someone in your first pod/round will likely have drafted studs on Wild Card teams, and while they will have an uphill battle to win the whole tournament, these teams will have a leg up on getting out of the first round.
• If you consider stacking both bye teams, you must cap that at a total of 5 players, and you are fighting an uphill battle to advance. The tournament is very top-heavy, and the two one-seeds are the most likely to advance, so we will discuss below some of the strategies to best balance this predicament and try to thread a very thin needle to advance a team to the final 300ish teams.

Roster Composition

Stacking is critical as you want to try to set yourself up to build around multiple teams (ideally 3-4 total) with at least one team from each conference. You also want to keep in mind the story you are telling with your build. If your roster is built around two #2 seeds (aka two non-bye teams) making the Super Bowl, you’ll want to keep in mind that if that happens, there will likely be rosters with 7-8 active players (or potentially more) in the finals. As mentioned above, the contests are top-heavy, so a roster with only 4-5 live/active players will be at a severe disadvantage and likely blocked out for first in a situation like this.

Quarterback Strategy

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Afternoon-only will be live late Saturday Evening, once we have more clarity on the nfc west situation.

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

One Week Stats will not be available in Week 18 and in the playoffs but you can still grab information at statrankings.com

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• Trevor Lawrence – Lawrence continues to dominate, and after a somewhat “down” week against the Colts, he is in a prime position to post a huge score against the Titans in a game to clinch the division title.
• Jaxson Dart – Dart’s only two games where he was held under 18 Fanduel points were against the Vikings and Patriots. This week, he gets a Dallas defense that has been dusted up all season.
• Caleb Williams – The Bears are facing a depleted defense, and Williams is playing terrific football right now, with elite playmakers all over the field.

Running Back::

• Bijan Robinson – We just saw him go nuts against the Rams and now gets a softer matchup and has the single season yards from scrimmage record within reach (needs 255 total yards to tie it). 
• Jaydon Blue – A disappointing rookie season for the explosive Blue could end with a massive blowup against a lowly Giants run defense. Cheap, explosive, great matchup, strong chance of good usage. The biggest concern here is simply ownership getting out of hand. I am ready to be hurt again.
• Tank Bigsby – The price is right for Bigsby on Fanduel and his skill set fits perfectly for the scoring settings and salary structure. Very talented player in a great matchup.
• D’Andre Swift – The Bears want to lean on the run, and Detroit’s defense is going to be without a lot of key players this week. Swift and Kyle Monangai are likely to be busy, and one of them going for 20+ points seems like a pretty strong bet this week.
• Audric Estime – We shouldn’t forget the fact that the Falcons have been a defense that has been very poor against the run for most of the season. Estime should see plenty of carries and a couple of targets.
• James Cook – Points still matter, and the Bills are facing a Jets defense that has been playing historically bad. Cook could realistically go over 100 rushing yards with a couple of touchdowns in the first half. Salary isn’t an issue this week, and if Cook goes for 30 points at low ownership he could be a key piece on the slate.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Jaxson Dart + Darius Slayton + CeeDee Lamb

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• Week 18 presents a unique challenge when building SE/3-Max FD lineups. The final slate of the regular season is a massive 13-gamer and features a unique timing split of six early kickoffs and seven later-afternoon starts.
• You will be able to find endless analysis about NFL team and player motivations this week, enough information to make your head spin even more than prepping for a “normal” DFS slate would. Just a few key questions you might consider:
  • Will a playoff-bound fantasy star sit the week out, or worse, be active with a reduced workload?
  • Will teams out of contention look to feature younger backup players to assist in their evaluation heading into the off-season?
  • Will teams be focused on featuring players within striking distance of significant contract incentives, records, and/or streaks?
• Even if you were willing and able to get your arms around many or all of those possible scenarios throughout this week, the results of the two key NFC games scheduled for Saturday, especially the later game to decide the NFC West title, seem likely to solidify some teams’ Sunday motivations even further.
• With so many unknowns and different scenarios to consider, the starting point for building my SE/3-Max lineups this week is two teams filled with affordable FD values that I believe double as somewhat predictable offensive hierarchies this week:
  • Saints (at Falcons, early kickoff)
    • Rookie QB Tyler Shough ($7,600) has seen his price creep up, but his stacking partners are all affordable in the wake of star WR Chris Olave being ruled out ahead of this week’s game with a blood clot.
    • RB Audric Estime remains affordable off of his 15-touch breakout last week. All Saints WRs (and their most viable TE) cost less than $5.5k.
  • Eagles (home vs Commanders, late window)
    • Third-year QB Tanner McKee ($6,000) has shown some flashes and comes with a minimum price tag. It would be nice if he had his starting pass catchers at his disposal, but he has several affordable teammates that make for comfortable stacking partners this week against an exploitable Washington defense.
    • Backup RB Tank Bigsby is the only Philly skill position player (likely to play) who costs more than $5k on this slate.
• This isn’t to say I’ll be limited to a two-man QB pool this week or that these QBs or cheap pass catchers are must-plays, but both teams sport reasonable low-20s implied team totals, and you literally can’t build a cost-prohibitive team stack if you wanted to. I plan to work through some different iterations of these team stacks using an opposing bring-back or adding one of these teams’ affordable RB options to the stack as well.

Running Back Approach