Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS!!!

Can you believe it’s Week 9? It’s such a great time in the NFL season, when we learn a lot about nearly every team. When we see their true colors, as the contenders start to round into some sort of form, the pretenders fade away…or at least, that’s what the media will tell you. 

We could also say that right around now is the time when regression takes hold, when we get teams like the Ravens, who will probably keep winning. Overachieving teams like the Colts and Patriots might eventually lose a few, and teams like the Chiefs and Bills might start to look more like what we expected before the season. We should also start to expect that players who have struggled with efficiency or red-zone luck start to enjoy different outcomes, and the coaches who actually have control of their locker rooms rise above the coaches who do not. I don’t know about you, but I much prefer this second stream of reasoning.

The NFL season is fast-paced and action-packed. Not to get all dramatic, “movie title preview” on you here, but these facts make it difficult to disconnect and slow down to enjoy it (and predict it). I dabble in Showdowns every now and again, and while I’ve never mastered the format personally, I really like sitting down for 10 to 15 minutes and thinking through one game, going quarter by quarter in my head to build a lineup that can reflect my predictions. It’s a different approach than saying Team X will beat Team Y 24-17 and building in stats from there. This slower approach goes drive by drive, quarter by quarter to work through all the if-then statements possible. It’s effective to build correlated lineups, and far from the most accurate predictions, but what I love about this approach is that it forces me to slow down.

How can you slow down in the midst of the ninth week in an 18-week regular season? Simple: by cutting out the noise. No X, limited podcasts, limited material. Be with yourself and your thoughts, first and foremost, and decide what content contributors make the cut for you this week. Slowing down can mean taking this 11-game slate and picking at least five or six to treat them like a Showdown slate. List out the player pools, think about the game flow if one team scores first, and then what does the next drive look like? What’s the likelihood of success if a team falls behind 0-14 or 0-10? Does it change game plans? Where can touchdowns come from? Which team will drive the game environment?

There is helpful data all around us. You can put it into action just as well as any of the content providers you follow. What you can also do is think for yourself in HOW these games shape up and play out, because we know we’re going to have some level of normal and randomness.

Speaking of Stats…

You’re likely aware, but OWS has a partnership this season with Statrankings.com (founded by our friend Kevin Adams, who is also an OWS contributor penning One Week Stats in The Scroll every week). If you haven’t checked out his site, and still use other sites for data, you can get a free account today to unlock literally thousands of data points. I have been plucking data from the site from time to time because the UI is very simple and welcoming, and the datasets are growing by the week. 

$3.50 unlocks the Bink Machine!

Another week, another Bink Machine promo. This week, for one week only, we are putting the Bink Machine on the clearance rack for just $49 through the Super Bowl (14 weeks // $3.50 per week).

I am not an MME player, so when the Bink Machine came around a couple years ago, I tuned out all the communications on it. After seeing some of the OWS fam winning tournaments and citing their use of the Bink Machine, however, I gave it a spin one week to build my cluster of lineups, with one wrinkle…instead of letting it build just my set of lineups, I went 3x the volume, and then shopped around for my core third. Since then, on weeks where I have the time to do it, I am religious about running the Bink Machine.

If you’ve been putting off using it until now, you are a very disciplined OWS subscriber. But if you are ready for it, just remember that no matter the package you choose, OWS will offer a money back guarantee if you try it and find it isn’t a fit for you. Risk a little, win a lot. Sounds good to me.

Week 9 :: 11 Showdowns

Slowing it down this week requires time to think about the 11 games ahead of us, individually. The Jets, Eagles, Browns, and Buccaneers are on a bye this week, while the primetime games include Baltimore (with Lamar likely back), Washington (with Jayden likely back), Seattle (employ the best receiver in the NFL?), and a game that includes the Cowboys (always a gold mine). There are some high-powered offenses in this group along with some generous defensive units, so that narrows down our targets just a bit this week (bottom-tier defenses on this slate include Bengals, Bears, Giants, Titans).

The art of slowing down the slate means we can’t possibly cover each of these games in the Angles email. Instead, I’m going to make a few notes here that I’ll explore later, and you can do the same. Some will involve the key questions we asked above, thoughts on how these games could evolve, and how we could profit off them.

Chiefs at Bills is the game of the week. This is a different Chiefs offense than we’ve seen in previous seasons, but the same one we’ve seen the last two weeks. Rashee Rice first. Running game second. Kelce for volume. Worthy for shots. And a healthy, mobile Pat Mahomes. Buffalo’s defense is far more susceptible to the run, giving up the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL, but the Chiefs may not prefer to play it this way. On Buffalo’s offense, we have Josh Allen doing everything, James Cook having a second consecutive very strong season, and the offense spreading it around like Tom Brady used to do in Foxboro. The Chiefs could slow this game down with some success, but Allen can speed it right back up.

Packers (vs. Panthers), Chargers (at Titans), Lions (vs. Vikings), and Rams (vs. Saints) all have 27+ implied point totals and a large spread.

Green Bay seemed to get its offensive mojo back last week against Pittsburgh. Christian Watson is back to open up the field and give them what Matthew Golden couldn’t. Carolina will want to run the ball but should be forced to throw it with Andy Dalton likely under center…

The Chargers visit Tennessee, who couldn’t get anything going last week against Indianapolis. Herbert has had a longer layoff with the TNF game, and while the Chargers may be able to run the ball all over the Titans, they also want to keep the train rolling in the passing game…

Detroit is coming off its bye week, and they get J.J. McCarthy’s return for Minnesota. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five matchups with the Vikings (31, 31, 30, 30, 34). Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense seems to cede big plays to Jared Goff and the Lions, but can Minnesota’s offense keep up? 

The Rams are also off their bye week with Puka Nacua expected to be back in this game, and the Saints officially giving rookie quarterback Tyler Shough a tryout. New Orleans rolled over last week at home to Tampa Bay, and there’s little reason to believe they will battle here on the West Coast when their previous West Coast trip (Seattle, Week 2) didn’t end so well. The question shouldn’t be if, but how will the Rams score their points.

All of these individual offenses look to be strong options in Week 9, but the two other game environments (beyond KC/BUF) that could jump off seem to be Chicago at Cincinnati and Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. We think we’ll see Joe Flacco for Cincy despite his injured shoulder, and we don’t really know what we’ll get from the Bears this week. Two amicable defenses, however, should not be overlooked. 

For the Colts, at some point they will be tested. It just might not be this week. Pittsburgh’s defense has had all the narratives from the Monday Morning Quarterbacks (MMQB) after its poor performance in Week 8. Mike Tomlin still knows how to win, but this seems to be Jonathan Taylor’s world that we’re all living in.

The rest of the slate brings us many other interesting matchups, from the Giants getting San Francisco’s pressure-less defense (last in NFL in pressure rate) with Christian McCaffrey on the other side getting the doormat Giants rushing defense, to the road Falcons and Bijan Robinson (maybe Michael Penix Jr.) traveling to Foxboro and MVP candidate Drake Maye, to the Houston Texans defense against the Broncos offense, and finally to the off-a-bye Jaguars going to Vegas, two teams desperate for a win.

11 “Showdowns” await us. Get out there and start shopping in the Bink Machine for the lineups you love this week. Level up your DFS game  with a FREE account at Statrankings.com to unlock all the data you need. And build your winners for Sunday!

This is your one week season!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, OCT. 28 THOUGHTS ::

JOSH ALLEN VS. CHIEFS ::

Since the “13 seconds” game, here are josh allen’s dk scores v kc, starting from the most recent :: 21.4 // 25.0 // 30.6 // 21.5 // 30.4

COLTS vs. STEELERS INITIAL THOUGHTS ::

The pittsburgh defense has been bad-bad. they gave up 32 to the jets. they gave up 31 to seattle. new england turned the ball over five times (four fumbles!), which is essentially cutting all scoring opportunities in half, so their 14 points in this matchup don’t hold much weight. they had no trouble moving the ball that game. minnesota is a mess on offense and scored 21. cleveland is no good on offense and scored 9. the bengals scored 33. the packers scored 35.

if the colts were only good at one thing, the steelers could focus on that one thing and try to shut it down. but the colts are good at everything, and their superpower is that they can beat you a ton of ways.

on top of that, the steelers are going to be solid and competitive in pretty much any game they play. (even their loss on snf was close until deep into the contest. also, when the packers finally took off was when they finally leaned into more of a multi-weapon precision passing attack. this is a big part of what the colts do.)

all of this is a long way of saying: i think we see points in this one. i put 3 units on the over 49.5, and while the potential fantasy goodness might be tough to sort out in spots, this looks like a game to clearly be thinking about.

EARLY WEEK 9 SLATE OVERVIEW ::

What a week!

jt in a game with a high total
cmc vs the giants’ d (in what probably ends up as a high-scoring game
bijan (in a bad matchup)
gibbs in a decent matchup
vidal still-cheap v tennessee
jacobs, cook, and kyren also on the slate

puka on the slate
ja’marr in a good matchup
arsb and jj opposite one another
rashee rice in a potential shootout

the bears and bengals providing game environment upside

minnesota and detroit in what could be a shootout

san fran and the giants in what could be a sneaky high-scoring game

indy and pitt in a likely high-scoring affair

the chargers likely to have their way with the titans

the rams playing the saints at home

jacksonville coming off a bye to try to get back on track vs the raiders

the chiefs traveling to take on the bills

should be a really fun one

EARLY WEEK 9 QB THOUGHTS ::

Caleb // Flacco: If flacco & the bengals do well again here (and they should), caleb has a chance to do really well also. that’s a key game to consider for qb production.

Mahomes // Allen: Bills // chiefs is as obvious as can be. both guys will be asked to be superman, probably pretty early in the flow of the game. allen’s paths to ceiling are thinner vs a much better defense, and i might not even put it past the bills’ coaching staff to find a way to hold the chiefs to three total touchdowns, but i like mahomes here, and i like trail bets on allen. this is clearly one of the games to have to beat if going elsewhere. points will be scored, and there’s a high likelihood (especially on the kc side) that the qbs are part of producing those points.

Daniel Jones // Aaron Rodgers: It won’t be totally surprising if we look through daniel jones’ game logs at the end of the year and this week is an outlier score on his ledger. the steelers have had tons of communication breakdowns on the back end this year. generally speaking, we look at those and say, “these things get ironed out over time.” but in this instance, steichen should have a good feel for how to exploit these issues. and again, rodgers and tomlin are generally going to be able to find a way to keep any game competitive. while it’s obviously within the range of outcomes for the steelers to pull out a win, it also won’t be odd if the final score looks a bit lopsided in the colts’ favor. but even if that’s the case, i expect it to feel like the steelers are in this one until deep into the game. and the steelers have been better vs the run than the pass. jones could have his second 300-yard game of the season, and could account for three or four tds. those remain lower-likelihood scenarios, of course, but they’re certainly likelier this week than they have been in most. (imo, if rodgers is hitting, jones is likely to be hitting for an even better score; but there probably is merit to thinking about an outlier 4-td game from rodgers here.).

Jared Goff: I don’t feel great about the vikings’ ability to keep their game vs the lions competitive on offense, so it’s probably either a low-scoring game or a lions runaway victory, but in the latter scenario, goff is live for a td-heavy spiked week. gibbs was the answer for this offense vs the vikings last year (35 // 49 dk points in these games — his two highest outputs of the season; the 49-pointer came with monty sidelined, but the 35-pointer was in a shared backfield), but across the last two seasons, the lions have scored 30 // 30 // 31 // 31 in this matchup, so while a big aerial performance is unlikely here, the possibility can’t be discounted.

Drake Maye: drake maye is live in any matchup. it’s tough to really turn the math in your favor, as it’s a guessing game as to whom you should stack with him, but he can certainly keep things rolling.

Trevor Lawrence // Geno Smith: the idea of the jags and raiders both fixing things on offense during the bye, and this game with explosive weapons all over the place turning into a shoutout, is something that will surely persist in my mind throughout the week. lawrence and geno are sneaky, with low floors but respectable price-considered ceilings.

Justin Hebert: It’s hard to see the titans stopping the chargers. it’s also hard to see the titans hanging around deep into this one. this creates volume concerns for herbert, and makes it a long-shot for him to post a tourney winner. but he certainly can do it.

Matthew Stafford: copy-paste the herbert/titans sentiment onto stafford/saints.

Dart // Purdy or Jones: dart can keep the giants competitive, and can do enough on his own to post a solid score. if dart is cooking, the 49ers qb should continue to be serviceable, with an outside shot at a noteworthy (price-considered) game.

Andy Dalton // Jordan Love: carolina // gb doesn’t seem ripe for either qb to post a big game, but each has ceiling for mme.

Nix // Stroud: denver d v houston d would have to be milly maker for me to build around it.

Early Week 9 RB Thoughts ::

These things are slate-dependent, of course, and i won’t be surprised if my opinion is something of an outlier, but i currently see this as a pretty thin running back slate.

Jonathan Taylor: jt is a strong play, and as i’ve already said, i expect there to be points in the indy/pit game, but while (yet another) 3 td game could fall his way, it’s not as good of a spot for overall yardage production, and at a price tag of $9.8k and a “likeliest score” in the mid to high 20s, it’s not a stretch to call him overpriced.

McCaffrey: cmc looks like a great play, but the 49ers could be getting healthier at wideout this week, which could drop cmc’s receiving work a bit. same as jt, a score in the mid to high 20s is likeliest, and at $8.8k, with pricing tight, rosters could look better without him. a note here: it’s early in the week. i’ve spent a decent amount of time with this slate for how early in the week it is, but i’ve only built a pair of practice builds so far. also, mid-week news could open value. both of these guys look good if high-ceiling value opens up, or if we start seeing clear ways to make these guys fit comfortably. buy purely in terms of scoring expectations and on-the-surface pricing, that’s how i’m seeing these two.

Gibbs: gibbs has a broad range of outcomes, but a high ceiling. and then, rb seems to really drop off.

Bijan // Josh Jacobs // James Cook: bijan and jacobs look overpriced to me for matchup and workload. james cook looks overpriced to me for matchup. said differently: we ideally want running backs we think can score 25-30+, and the higher end of this range becomes important to target at higher price tags. i think these guys are all underdogs to go for 27+, and they’re all expensive enough that i want to feel confident about hitting those types of scores, all of which makes these three look uninspiring to me.

Kyren Williams: kyren is really expensive for his role, with corum soaking up touches and the rams taking to the air in the red zone a lot more this year.

Jeanty: jeanty is expensive in a horrible offense and a poor matchup.

Kimani Vidal: vidal looks like a slam-dunk v tennessee if haskins is out again, and even if haskins plays, i think this is vidal’s backfield.

D’Andre Swift: swift has a tremendous matchup vs cincy, with his general workload being the only dent.

Best of the Rest: and then we get down to guys who don’t catch passes and are in split backfields (dobbins, jordan mason, etc) and guys who don’t generally see enough touches to hit for meaningful ceiling (chase brown, dowdle/chuba, etienne, jaylen warren, rhamondre, etc.) to me, the most interesting from this group is etienne, as the jags are great at running the ball and just haven’t been doing it enough; this week, they’re coming out of the bye (a self-scouting opportunity) and are taking on the raiders. but everyone in this group needs things to really bounce their way for ceiling. and that’s all the running back options on the slate. again: it’s early. but running back looks like it will present some interesting decisions this week.

BUILDING A TAYLOR/MCCAFFREY ROSTER ::

I did just build a jt/cmc roster, as a challenge to see what it looks like.

it’s not pretty. but it can be done.

and sort of like building a bottom-up-build roster, it does stretch the mind.

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 29 THOUGHTS ::

Bears RBs vs. Bengals Defense Thoughts ::

Throwing out week 1 // browns, here are backfield scores vs cincy this year:

32.3 — jags

34.5 — vikings

36.4 — broncos

34.9 — lions

33.8 — packers

26.3 — steelers

53.8 — jets

swift and monangai are probably too expensive to play together on a week with high scoring ceilings across the board (i.e., you’d take on a really solid score, but you’d probably be behind what plenty of others are getting for that salary), and with swift’s lower-body injuries, this backfield is being split evenly enough that there’s a chance neither of these guys pops in a pristine matchup; but also, there’s a chance you scoop tremendous production by picking the right guy between these two, which has to keep this backfield very much in mind.

ADDITIONAL BEARS // BENGALS ANGLES ::

Where the concern lies on the bears’ side :: run game could take away from caleb, and could be split enough that neither guy is really noteworthy

where concern lies on bengals’ side :: price is high enough on chase that he might not prove tourney-worthy, but he’s so central to this offense right now that he could also soak up enough work to prevent anyone else from hitting

because of passing volume being so bankable for cincy, flacco is the highest-certainty piece.

that said, this game has huge potential (driven by the fact that cincy will know they need points, and will continue to play accordingly, which will force a naturally aggressive coach in ben johnson to call an aggressive game in response), with pieces across the board carrying tourney-winning ceiling. basically: the certainty on individual pieces isn’t as high as it could be; but the directional certainty is high, which makes this a strong game to build around and “hope you end up on the players through whom the touchdowns will come.”

AMON-RA vs. VIKINGS DEFENSE THOUGHTS ::

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s last four games vs Flores :: 13.7 // 28.2 // 30.4 // 31.6.

The 13.7 came in the only blowout win the Lions have had in this matchup, and as I mentioned earlier in the week, it won’t be surprising if the Lions surge to an easy win in this one, which could limit opportunities for ARSB to hit for ceiling. But this is, at least, a good reminder that against Flores’ blitz-happy defense, ARSB is capable of spiked weeks as the most trusted target for Goff. If we get the volume for the Lions, we have a good shot at ARSB producing.

(You could say that ‘because St. Brown’s chances of producing a spiked week are much higher if the Vikings are keeping things close, this means you should include a Vikings piece on any ARSB roster’ — but given the split nature of the Vikings’ backfield and volume concerns in the passing attack even if they are finding a way to score points, I don’ think this rule necessarily needs to be exercised here. Basically: if you’re playing ARSB, you’re hoping the Vikings keep this game close, but ‘the Vikings keeping this game close’ doesn’t necessarily mean we’re getting fantasy goodness from the Vikings’ side.)

THOUGHTS ON MCCARTHY, VIKINGS WRS ::

@everyone — early notes for what I expect to be a “Vikings WRs in Tier 2 Bonus” writeup for the Player Grid ::

Vikings — The deck is stacked against them with McCarthy back, and with O’Connell clearly wanting to limit volume for him (same thing he did for Sam Darnold through the entire first half of the year last year, with 28 or fewer pass attempts in six of his first seven games, and with the exception in that stretch yielding only 31 attempts — after witch Darnold threw 34+ times in seven of 10 games, including four games of 38+), but at the same time, the deck is stacked against O’Connell being able to follow through with this approach here, as the Lions are excellent against the run and should put up points. With how bad McCarthy looked in seven of his first eight quarters of NFL football, it takes a leap of faith to trust these guys even if we see the volume; but if we zoom out and just think about how NFL slates can play out, we can also acknowledge that it won’t look weird or out of place if one of Addison // Jefferson posts a big game chasing points against the Lions. These guys are Tier 2 for me, but they’re still in the mix.

VIDAL vs. TITANS DEFENSE THOUGHTS ::

Some Vidal-related stats :: Even removing the games against Jonathan Taylor, the Titans have allowed 26.55 DK points per game to opposing backfields in the last month and a half, with the opponents in these matchups consisting of the Patriots, Raiders, Cardinals, and Texans (none of whom have reliably provided RB production this year).

THURSDAY, OCT. 30 THOUGHTS ::

FLEX CANDIDATES UNDER $6.4K ::

Most dk points per game for flex players under $6.4k ::

17.5 — jordan addison; dealing with the return of mccarthy, but the matchup is nice

17.0 — tucker kraft; volume concerns in what could be an easy win, but in a very soft matchup this week

16.9 — de’andre swift; volume concerns with his lower-body ailments seemingly cutting down his playing time, but in a very soft matchup this week

15.7 — michael pittman; volume could be higher than normal, in what has been a very soft matchup for wideouts this year

15.4 — keenan allen; not a great spot for volume

15.2 — dk metcalf; volume could be higher than normal, in what has been a very soft matchup for wideouts this year

QB GRID THOUGHTS ::

Some interesting notes ::

My current “bottom of Grid” QB list looks like this: Joe Flacco // Caleb Williams // Daniel Jones (potentially with trail bets on Aaron Rodgers) // Patrick Mahomes (likely with trail bets on Josh Allen) // >>—<< // Mac Jones // Jaxson Dart I currently have just over 1900 rosters built up in the Bink Machine, and in sims for small-field single-entry, Daniel Jones rosters are by far the preferred options from this group. The Bink Machine shows 50 rosters per page, so just taking those top 50 rosters as a data point :: 44 are Daniel Jones rosters.

Because we’re talking sims (where simulations are being run on what would win you the most money over time — and where the clearest path to first-place is typically for an offense to have a big performance, and for quite a few players to get in on the action as a result), the top rosters in this pile all include “Daniel Jones with three pass catchers.” This is, of course, an interesting setup, in that the Colts are already on pace to join the 2007 Patriots and 2013 Broncos as the highest-scoring offenses in NFL history…and yet, we have not yet seen a single tourney-winner from Pittman // Warren // Downs // Pierce (and you could argue we haven’t really seen one from Daniel Jones yet either). Part of this, of course, is that Jonathan Taylor is soaking up so many of the touchdowns, it’s tough for anyone else to hit — and so, if JT fails to pile up touchdowns in this one, there’s a chance for the scoring to flow to a couple of these guys. But you could also say that the sims are overrating the chances of this game playing out in such a way that Daniel Jones triples (or even doubles) are topping tourneys.

Other QBs in the top 50 on my end :: A Herbert triple-stack A Stafford + Puka + Davante roster A pair of Jaxson Dart doubles (Wan’Dale and Theo) A Herbert double A Stroud + Nico roster Herbert doubles and triples, of course, have some sneaky pathways to tourney-winning production, but this would require either A) a weird game in which the Titans unexpectedly keep this game really close, or B) a weird game in which we get four Herbert touchdown passes on relatively limited volume. Both of these setups feel better to me in large-field play than in small-field play. Stafford is in the same boat. The creativity of a Stafford + Puka + Davante roster makes it really, really fun; but the chances of it hitting its high-end outcome are low due to the nature of the game environment we can comfortably expect here.

Stroud + Nico is clearly large-field only to me. And then we have Dart, who is putting on his baby Superman cape enough to be pretty comfortably penciled in for solid fantasy production, but who isn’t going to confidently bring anyone with him, let alone two guys.

While Daniel Jones is on my QB list this week, it’s not until we get to my 61st roster (by ROI) that we run into the type of setup I generally gravitate toward in small-field play — a roster where a lot of the guesswork is eliminated in terms of “how the game environment is likely to play out, and how the offense is likely to be called,” and where we’re then just hoping the offense performs as expected. This, of course, is Joe Flacco, where we can feel confident that the Bears will do well against the Bengals, and we can feel confident the Bengals will throw the ball plenty (probably with plenty of success, and with this volume flowing through Ja’Marr first and Higgins second). This roster is a Flacco double with Ja’Marr and Higgins, and with a Swift bring-back.

Not one of my Mahomes rosters has positive ROI. Not one of my Mac Jones rosters has positive ROI. Caleb Williams is coming in with relatively capped ROI expectations (probably due, primarily, to the price tag on Odunze, the question marks around passing volume for this offense, and the question marks around the backfield split with Swift continuing to have his reps managed). What does all this mean? Nothing definitive. As I talked through last week: even though I wasn’t able to play, I’ve been in such a groove with roster-building that I didn’t want to lose that rhythm, and I continued to treat last week like any other week — including building rosters deep into Saturday night and setting aside a pile of favorites before Sunday morning. That pile of favorite rosters scored 140 to 168 almost across the board (with a couple of my less-favorite rosters popping into the mid-170s), which would have been enough — in my typical tourneys of choice — to finish in the money almost across the board, with a few rosters pushing for top-five finishes.

The sims liked almost none of those rosters, which brings to mind something we talked about on another week this season when my favorite rosters didn’t line up with what the sims were seeing:

One of the really cool things about the sims for me this year has been the way they have trained my eye for what to be looking for // thinking about. Last week, my favorite rosters had Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims paired, and Goedert/Devonta paired, and Achane/Waddle paired. On a low-scoring week, adding those blocks to Jonathan Taylor // Saquon Barkley // “basically any of my rosters that avoided Bijan” was enough to keep me on track. On the other week we talked about where my rosters didn’t line up with the Sims, it was a function of projections not lining up with the way I was seeing certain games. Again: in smaller-field contests, I like to pile as much certainty/confidence onto a roster as I can. My second page of “highest-ROI rosters” (rosters 51-100) have several Drake Maye doubles (Maye + Boutte + Henry, for example), where so many things need to go right for that stack to fall into place. In my opinion, I don’t need to take on that much guesswork and risk most weeks in small-field contests. Instead, I can play Flacco + Chase with a Chicago bring-back and know my “bad runouts” are still good, and my “good runouts” are better than most other options available. Generally speaking, I try to make sure these journal entries lead to some sort of conclusion or key takeaway, and I’m not totally sure I have one of those here. More than anything, this is just an exploration of how this week seems to be shaping up. But even without a conclusion or takeaway, this felt worthwhile to break down and pass along.

QUICK THOUGHTS ON JAYLEN WARREN, TYRONE TRACY ::

Running backs who appear on track to be pretty popular and are not on my list – Jaylen Warren // Tyrone Tracy. Neither is a bad play, but I feel projection systems are overrating their chances of going for ceiling outcomes. Take that as one data point, of course, but I wanted to drop that mention.

TRAVIS HUNTER THOUGHTS ::

Continuing down that same path, I haven’t found myself gravitating toward Travis Hunter this week. There seems to be a lot of excitement/belief after his breakout performance last time out, but the stat line was boosted by garbage time air-it-out mode, and wasn’t representative of how Hunter has been used in this offense even if he has a bigger role moving forward. This is a play that I keep thinking, “I could regret not being on this one”; but I try to never use that as a reason to play a guy I’m not all that interested in playing. I think we’ll see buzz building on this play this week, so I wanted to let you know why you aren’t seeing buzz on this play from me.

“BOTTOM-OF-GRID” list AS OF THURSDAY NIGHT ::

Here’s what my “bottom of Grid” list looks like at the moment ::

Joe Flacco // Caleb Williams // Daniel Jones (potentially with trail bets on Aaron Rodgers) // Patrick Mahomes (likely with trail bets on Josh Allen) // >>—<< // Mac Jones // Jaxson Dart

Christian McCaffrey // Kimani Vidal // Jonathan Taylor // Jahmyr Gibbs // D’Andre Swift // Kareem Hunt

Ja’Marr Chase // Puka Nacua // Rashee Rice // Michael Pittman // DK Metcalf // Jauan Jennings

Tucker Kraft // Tyler Warren // Brock Bowers // George Kittle

Rams // Chargers // Lions // Patriots // Broncos

THOUGHTS ON PATRIOTS RUNNING GAME // POSSIBLE RHAMONDRE ABSENCE ::

If I had to guess, I would say Rhamondre Stevenson will be out for several weeks, and the Patriots are waiting to make it official to gain a #competitiveadvantage. With rumors that the Pats are targeting a running back in the trade market and Rhamondre not practicing this week, we do seem to be trending toward an absence. If that’s the case, is TreVeyon Henderson high-confidence? No. The Patriots are weird, and they do weird things. But after the 49ers and Dolphins each went big against the Falcons’ small/fast defense and destroyed them with a smashmouth run game, it’s well within the realm of possibilities that the Pats do the same. And while (again) weird things can happen, like Terrell Jennings pulling a Jonas Gray, I feel comfortable saying it’s far likelier that Henderson slots into the Rhamondre role here. Maybe we get clarity on Friday. Maybe we get a Schefter bomb on Saturday night. Or maybe we don’t get answers here until Sunday, which would be ideal. But comparing Henderson to flex players in his price range, he stands out as a strong option this week (assuming we ultimately get Rhamondre out this week).

FRIDAY, OCT. 31 THOUGHTS ::

CMC + 49ERS PASS CATCHER ANGLE ::

If we throw out the game against the texans, cmc has kept you on a 154.4-point pace on average this season at his week 9 salary.

if, for the sake of calculations, you assume jauan jennings’ price tag this week exposes you to the top pass catcher score from the 49ers, the production this year of “cmc + the top pass catcher on the 49ers” would have kept you on a 174.9-point pace.

here are the game-by-game scores of “cmc + top pass catcher,” along with the pace it would have kept you on:

41 (pearsall) — 156.5
41.6 (jauan) — 158.8
46.7 (pearsall) — 178.2
40.9 (tonges) — 156.1
55.1 (bourne) — 210.3
46.3 (bourne) — 176.7
49.2 (jauan) — 187.8

the takeaway ::

if you land on the right pass catcher, cmc + a san francisco wideout is a nice pairing.

i’ll also note: the field is going to be looking at jennings this week, but i think there’s still a pretty good chance that bourne leads the way, at essentially no ownership. (three weeks ago, bourne ran three more routes than jauan. two weeks ago, jauan ran three more routes than bourne. last week, they ran the same number of routes. and mac still has his connection with bourne. we saw him lean into a connection with btj last year. what if tough matchups vs atlanta and houston were outliers for bourne’s expected usage? just some thoughts to play around with.)

also, of course, kittle is capable of 25+.

cmc is valuable not just for the points, but also for the certainty (especially on tighter builds), and we don’t quite have that when branching into the world of pass catchers pairings. but it’s still an angle to think about playing around with this week.

JM’S PLAYER GRID LIVE ::

https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-9-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-9-25

SATURDAY, NOV. 1ST THOUGHTS ::

UNIQUE ROSTER ANGLE INCL. CHASE AND MCCAFFREY ::

This isn’t high-confidence…but it’s an interesting angle:

CMC: $8.8k, averaging 25.0 dk ppg; everyone wants to play him

Ja’Marr: $8.4k, averaging 22.6 dk ppg; everyone wants to play him

Trevor Lawrence + Parker Washington: $9.1k, averaging 24.1 dk ppg; no one will even think about playing it (and if they do, they’ll want to puke)

good matchup. and with hunter out, washington’s snaps should be pretty bankable

i was messing around with ways to make the “stack” a secondary decision-point while first focusing on “fitting in as many of my favorite plays as i could”

it’s unconventional, but it absolutely does work.

UNIQUE ROSTER ANGLE INCL. GENO // TUCKER // BOWERS ::

Same game, geno + bowers + tucker = $14.4k, which is $400 more than Flacco + Chase and $300 less than Mahomes + Rice.

in games Bowers has played, this stack has bombed twice, hit for a typical Flacco/Chase // Mahomes/Rice score once, and gone nuclear once

Probably better for large-field play (mostly bc I can’t get comfortable with it on tighter builds), but it is at least live on this week

i said this one “isn’t high-confidence,” but i am considering it on tighter builds

just making a distinction there, as i said i’m not quite getting there on tighter builds with the geno side

CHIEFS ROSTER ANGLE ::

“Mahomes + rashee + pacheco/hunt role” has kept you on a 175.8-point pace across the last two weeks

they get their toughest matchup (their other two were cakewalks in was & lv) but their best game environment in this stretch

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

This slate became extremely interesting with all the value that opened up at running back. From a macro perspective, there are three games on the Week 9 main slate with a game total over 50 points, the first time that has happened this season. This slate carries the highest median game total of the season. There are 11 games on the main slate instead of the 10 we have been used to recently. Those four key elements come together to make it highly likely we see increased fantasy scoring this week, meaning we’re likely to see the highest required raw score to ship GPPs of the season. In my opinion, we absolutely must be approaching roster construction with that in mind this week.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

KYLE MONANGAI

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Monangai is a lock-button type play in single entry and three-max contests, at least for me. The matchup is that good; there is no competition for backfield opportunities with Roschon Johnson also out, and he frees up so much salary to maneuver throughout the remainder of the roster. That does not mean there isn’t merit to fading the highest-owned player of the season (there is).

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. A back that has put up 23 DK points or more in every game this season makes a lot of sense, particularly against the team allowing the most yards per carry (5.7) and one of the highest explosive run rates this season.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase projects as the top median raw point total at wide receiver and is in the same game as a player pushing for 50% ownership (Monangai). There are very easy ways to play the two away from the field.

PUKA NACUA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Nacua has put up 24.8 DK points or more in all five fully healthy games this season, while seeing nine targets or more in each contest. He projects as the second wide receiver behind Chase in raw median projections.

TREVEYON HENDERSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Henderson carries the most uncertainty of the chalky plays this week. That isn’t to say his range of outcomes versus cost equation is not elite – it is – simply that this is still a player that the coaching staff has not yet trusted for more than 50% of the offensive snaps. I expect Terrell Jennings to be involved, but to what extent? The matchup is “fine” against a Falcons defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry but holding teams to 1.80 yards before contact per attempt. The Patriots have also struggled on the ground through eight weeks, blocking to only 1.55 yards before contact per attempt.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K

Mac Jones
Kareem Hunt
Christian McCaffrey
Jauan Jennings
Jalen Coker
DK Metcalf
Tyler Warren
Theo Johnson
Texans

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Kyle Monangai

I posted this in the Journal earlier this week when it looked like D’Andre Swift might play, but if we take out the Browns in Week 1, here’s what backfields have done vs the Bengals this year (DK scoring) ::

32.3 — Jags
34.5 — Vikings
36.4 — Broncos
34.9 — Lions
33.8 — Packers
26.3 — Steelers
53.8 — Jets

D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are both out, and the Bears have been leaning into the run game since coming out of the bye. This is a “don’t overthink it” spot for me. On paper, Monangai is a much better play than both TreVeyon Henderson and Kareem Hunt, and I don’t know that the field will go as all-in on this play as they should. I won’t be surprised if I have this play on 100% of my single-entry/3-max rosters this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“189.8”

Joe Flacco + Ja’Marr Chase

Story:

“We get the same thing, again.”

Why It Works:

These two cost $14k in salary, and have kept you on a 189.8-point pace through their first three games together(!), scoring 43.9 (Green Bay), 70.1 (Pittsburgh), and 45.4 (Jets). To put that in perspective, Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice cost $14.7k in salary, and have combined for scores of 50.5 and 49.4 so far; and I think it’s comfortable to say there are more paths to Mahomes performing without Rice than there are to Flacco performing without Chase (or Chase performing without Flacco). I really like Mahomes + Rice as well, and that could easily have been a featured block here; but Flacco + Chase has basically been the QB/WR equivalent of Christian McCaffrey so far :: a way to spend a large chunk of salary and have a high, bankable floor of points with opportunities for a true ceiling outcome.

How It Works:

Flacco + Chase with a Monangai bring-back won’t be meaningfully different on this slate, so you’ll obviously still have to carve out something different on your roster(s) from here; but this is a nice starting point that provides you with early, high-confidence points before moving deeper into your build(s).

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“HF;CR?”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Monangai Locked

I have over 1900 rosters already queued up in the Bink Machine, so there’s a chance I’ll find one or two rosters, when shopping through things this weekend, that were built before the D’Andre Swift news, and that pop as really strong options for me to consider this week. But for every set of rosters I run moving forward, I plan to lock Monangai. With that “lock” icon clicked, he’ll show up in 100% of rosters I build through the weekend. He’ll be popular, of course, so it’s not like this provides meaningful edge; but I do consider him to be a guy worth playing 100% of the time, and there will probably be about 50% of rosters in tourneys that don’t have him. I’ll take that where I can get it.

$3.50/Week:

Just a reminder :: the Bink Machine is an outrageously useful tool for single-entry/3-Max. We intentionally keep the price tag on the Bink Machine cheap (as far as I know, it’s cheaper than any other optimizer out there) in order for our SE/3-Max users to feel like they can justify the cost. If you typically play playoff DFS, you’re basically paying $3.50 per Main Slate with a $49 Bink Machine pass. If you use it for a week and don’t find it to be useful, reach out to support and we’ll refund your money. Get in there to try it out if you can.

NOTE :: This $49 price tag is available for one week only!

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Joe Flacco || Caleb Williams || Daniel Jones (potentially with trail bets on Aaron Rodgers) || Patrick Mahomes (likely with trail bets on Josh Allen) || >>—<< || Mac Jones // Jaxson Dart

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Kyle Monangai – The matchup and game environment couldn’t be much better, and Monangai is likely to have a huge workload with multiple Bears RBs inactive. At this price, we don’t overthink it.
• TreVeyon Henderson – A talented and explosive running back, Henderson finally gets his chance to shine.
• Christian McCaffrey – CMC struggled against the Texans elite defense last week, but has 23+ DK points in every other game this season and faces the Giants 32nd ranked run defense this week.
• Jonathan Taylor – Despite the price hike, JT is still an elite option. The value opening up late in the week creates a situation where salary matters less than we would have thought a couple days ago.
• Kimani Vidal – Elite matchup, game environment, and volume. Has shown to be a talented and sometimes explosive player.
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. – Tracy has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over the last two games against two elite defenses. He now has the feature back role in a matchup with a struggling and depleted defense, while at a modest salary.
• Kareem Hunt – A $4,700 lead back in a high scoring game environment, likely at low ownership. I don’t usually entertain players like Hunt who lack explosive ability and rely on touchdowns, but the spot here is pretty clean.

Tight End ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Sonic’s MME Player pool will return in week 10

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 9 has four games that pique my interest:

• CHI @ CIN (51)
• SF @ NYG (48.5)
• MIN @ DET (48)
• IND @ PIT (50.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

bears @ bengals

This game has a similar total to another game you won’t see featured on this list (KC @ Buf), but this game is much better for DFS than the Chiefs-Bills game. Joe Flacco ($5,600) and Caleb Williams ($5,700) are both underpriced for having great matchups in a strong game environment. Between them, I’d prefer Flacco stacked with any combination of Chase Brown ($5,900), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400), or Tee Higgins ($5,900). I’m likely to stack this game from the Bengals side on my main lineup, but I’ll certainly have Bears stacks that pair Caleb with Rome Odunze ($6,600), DJ Moore ($5,200), Kyle Monangai ($4,600), or Colston Loveland ($3,330). This game should be fast-paced, high-scoring, and feature a lot of passing against two bad defenses. Those are the ingredients for fantasy goodness, and I don’t think there is a wrong way to stack this game. I’m currently debating an overstack using Flacco + Brown + Chase + Higgins + Loveland. I’m not sure exactly what I’ll land on, but my main lineup is going to feature a lot of players from this game.

49ers @ giants

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 9 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Pick A Lane

3. Decisions, Decisions

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

For the second week in a row, we have later-week injury news shaking up the way we’re looking at // thinking about the slate, with D’Andre Swift and Rhamondre Stevenson, in particular, shaking up the way we’re thinking about things here. Maybe this is more pronounced for me than for others, as the field seemed pretty willing to go to Tyrone Tracy and Jaylen Warren in a similar price range, but Monangai is obviously in a different tier of DFS plays than those ones, and the availability of TreVeyon Henderson (as well as Kareem Hunt, of course) seems to further open things up. If you were building practice builds throughout the week, your perception of this slate in your actual builds will be different from what you were working with before.

We also have 10 teams implied to score 25+ points, and while four of those teams are expected to win their games easily, the other six teams are in games with close spreads. When we look at individual players on the slate, building with the mindset of “trying to pick the best plays across the board,” there is little enough certainty that it sort of feels like, “I don’t know, will this week be as high-scoring in DFS as it seems?” But when you shift to building through the lens of game environments and the ceiling that can emerge along that path, it does start to feel a lot more like we’ll see scoring pile up this week.

In the context of what we’ve been dealing with to this point in the season, this week is also unique in that we have pricing on certain players reaching a point where we really have to think about what we’re missing out on by spending that much on one player. “Yes, I think this player can have a great game; but do they have a great enough game that I should be taking away this much salary from the rest of my roster?”

Finally — along those same lines — this is a week in which I don’t personally feel all that comfortable paying down at tight end or DST, which is a place where we sometimes free up salary to chase higher-confidence plays in other spots.

Ultimately, it does feel like this will be a higher-scoring DFS week, so the name of the game is turning the math in our favor to maximize our chances of collecting a high score (while also maximizing our chances of a first-place finish if we get the scores we need).

Xandamere >>

Well for one we’ve added an extra game after several weeks of 10-game slates. One extra game may not sound like a huge deal, but it gives us more options to play on our rosters and it also spreads ownership around more widely.

More specifically to the dynamics of the slate, we have multiple contenders for “best game of the week,” with FOUR games that have big totals (48.5 or higher) and close spreads. That gives us good game environments to target but also spreads out ownership to where there isn’t one clear “best spot” we have to consider either leaning all the way into or away from. We also have multiple other great offenses in great spots with high totals that might be blowouts (Rams, Chargers, Packers). All in all, there are a lot of potential great spots to attack.

We also have what I, at least, would consider some really dubious chalk. We don’t always have this in NFL DFS anymore – generally speaking most chalk is at least a “solid play,” though sometimes it’s quite fragile, but I would argue there are some chalk plays this week that just feel pretty weak (looking at you, Jaylen Warren, Kyren Williams, Tyrone Tracy, and a couple of others). We’ll see if these ownership projections hold up as the week progresses, but I love spots where I think the chalk is really weak. 

Hilow >>

There are three games on the Week 9 main slate with a game total over 50 points, the first time that has happened this season. This slate carries the highest median game total of the season. There are 11 games on the main slate instead of the 10 we have been used to recently. Pricing appeared to be extremely tight until oodles of value opened up at the running back position. Those four key elements come together to make it highly likely we see increased fantasy scoring this week, meaning we’re likely to see the highest required raw score to ship GPPs of the season. To me, that is the defining aspect of this slate, and we absolutely must be building in a way that gives us a legitimate path to first place.

Beyond that top-level discussion, this is the first slate in a while where we should feel compelled to pay up at quarterback. I am typically a pay-down-at-QB player (most SE/3-Max players are), but this slate dangles Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in front of our faces in what could be a preview of the AFC Championship game.

There is an interesting dynamic at the running back position now that we have so much value, in that there are numerous pay-up options that project well, there are a couple mid-range options that project well, and there are a few value options that project extremely well. Lots of ways to go with that setup.

And then there’s the wide receiver position, a position that has taken somewhat of a back seat to the others this season based on the current state of the league.

There are a ton of theoretical aspects that make that setup unique, which we’ll dive more into in the End Around!

Mike >>

To me, the unique aspect of this slate is the combination of explosive game environments and clear and massive value options. The cheap running backs cheat code is unlocked by Kareem Hunt, Kyle Monangai, TreVeyon Henderson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Jaylen Warren. The fact of the matter is that it is highly unlikely that all of these guys post poor games, with a pretty good chance at least two of them goes for 18 to 22, and a very real path to one or two reaching 25+. This dynamic has a huge impact on the slate. Fitting in perfectly with that is the fact that we have, by my count, four explosive game environments and four other teams who are massive favorites and expected to score a boatload of points. The value options will increase the flexibility of lineups and allow us to play more of the elite options from those awesome spots. It all adds up to a uniquely high scoring slate with a lot of ways to get there.

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2. Pick A Lane

The Question ::

The Week 9 slate is a juicy one, with several spots that are extremely appealing and have the potential to turn into a shootout. The favorites in this category are::

• Colts (27) at Steelers (24)
• Bears (27) at Bengals (24)
• 49ers (26) at Giants (23)
• Chiefs (27) at Bills (25)

If building a true game stack (four or more players) around any one of these spots, which one do you prefer and why?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

When you write content for long enough, you are going to look like a fool eventually. “It’s the nature of the business,” says this part-time writer who has been partaking in content creation for about five years now. But it’s true, we all have bad takes. The truth is, by putting yourself out there and taking a stand, you are just destined to be wrong if you do it enough. When you try to make accurate predictions in an imperfect world, where the future can’t be perfectly predicted, you’re bound to run into a goose egg from time to time. That all said, one of the more difficult stands to take is the same stand the week after it went completely wrong. Some will say “going back to the well” or “holding my ground,” but the truth is when a take goes off the reserve, there is such an overwhelming urge to do something different in the next public showing.

You won’t have to go far to see where Willing to Lose has gone wrong this season. It’s not the cold takes that get me, though; it’s the takes that come to fruition a week or two later, which really crush me. I remember writing about rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in the middle of the 2021 season because I found an article about how the coaches and Jared Goff were talking him up. It must have been Week 8 or 9, because he went out and had just four targets the next week. And then he burst out with 10 or more targets in every game from Weeks 12 to 17, and the rest is history. I had the situation pegged, but my timing was off.

This season, I wrote about Russell Wilson in Week 1. I joked about how boring it sounded to wait all summer, and football was finally back, and I chose to highlight Wilson and Malik Nabers. He puts up a dud, then promptly wins all the money in Week 2 with Nabers and Wan’Dale. Similarly, Sam Darnold in Week 3 made the article, and he threw the ball just 18 times in a drubbing win against New Orleans. Fast forward to Week 5, when Darnold is now under the radar, and he goes nuclear against Tampa Bay with 341 yards passing and four touchdowns, again winning loads of tournaments. 

It takes some real ones to stay stubborn and remain on the block. The next time you wake up on Monday and realize that a content provider you follow was dead wrong, make a note to see what they do the following week related to that player. If they go back to it, despite a flop, and it’s not some player with a significant track record, props to them. 

Here’s what I’m looking at in Week 9, and why I feel like being stubborn might be my optimal outcome.

Michael Penix Jr. + Bijan Robinson

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 9 Overview

We once again have a three game slate this week, with three very clear and different dynamics. KC/BUF is a high profile game environment that is poised for fireworks with two of the top quarterbacks in the league, one of whom has an elite cast of weapons and is playing lights out against a depleted defense. It seems very clear that the Chiefs should score points here, and Buffalo is likely to follow suit. Then we have the Rams as massive favorites against the Saints. They should have their way with New Orleans early in the game, and their player usage is pretty condensed among Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Davante Adams to start games, with a high likelihood of at least two of them having very strong games going into halftime. However, the Rams will likely preserve their studs and start spreading things around if the score is in hand. So there are dynamics at play there. The Saints are an interesting team this week, traveling cross-country for a very tough game with a shaky rookie QB. They have some players who could get there on sheer volume. Then we have the JAX/LV game with two inconsistent quarterbacks with decent, but not elite, supporting casts facing two pretty good defenses. This leaves a large range of outcomes in a spot where we also have some value opening up and questions around the receiving options.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

Quarterback ::

• Patrick Mahomes // Josh Allen – It is a very high probability that this game has a lot of scoring and these two are the engines of their offenses. All bets are off if things get competitive in the second half. The Chiefs are likely to score a lot of points against the Bills defense, and Josh Allen is likely to keep them in it.
• Daniel Jones – An elite spot for this offense and Jones is the clear and direct beneficiary if JT doesn’t take all of the touchdowns this week.
• Caleb Williams – I think this might be the week that Ben Johnson cuts him loose and he posts one of those monster games that we would randomly see from Jared Goff in past seasons.

Running Back::

• Kyle Monangai – The matchup and game environment couldn’t be much better, and Monangai is likely to have a huge workload with multiple Bears RBs inactive. At this price, we don’t overthink it.
• TreVeyon Henderson – A talented and explosive running back, Henderson finally gets his chance to shine.
• Jaylen Warren – Warren is in a terrific game environment this week and is the player this coaching staff and Aaron Rodgers trust the most.
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. – Tracy has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over the last two games against two elite defenses. He now has the feature back role in a matchup with a struggling and depleted defense, while at a modest salary.
• Kareem Hunt – A $4,700 lead back in a high-scoring game environment, likely at low ownership. I don’t usually entertain players like Hunt who lack explosive ability and rely on touchdowns, but the spot here is pretty clean.
• Kimani Vidal – Elite matchup, game environment, and volume. Has shown to be a talented and sometimes explosive player.
• Jonathan Taylor // Christian McCaffrey – These two are elite options from a raw scoring perspective, but salaries make them tough to stomach with all the value now on the slate. However, that value also makes it far easier to fit one of these two in your lineup and get a high probability of a 30-point game.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Caleb Williams + Kyle Monangai + DJ Moore

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• Week 9 offers an 11-game main slate, the largest slate since Week 4, with four teams on bye and a “normal” schedule of primetime games. There are eight early kickoffs and three games in the later afternoon, not an ideal split, in my humble opinion.
• One of the saving graces of the three-game afternoon slate is an exciting Chiefs at Bills game with the slate’s highest implied point total (52.5). Considering this game is the starting point for my main SE/3-Max rosters this week:
  • KC (27.25) at BUF (25.25)
  • This game features the slate’s two highest-priced QBs, two of the slate’s most popular WR options, and chances to make somewhat contrarian plays at RB, TE, and/or D/ST this week, if you want to.
  • I plan for one of my main teams to be some sort of overstack of this game, including a QB, one of both of the RBs, and some pass catchers, and I’ll likely build another roster or two around these MVP caliber QBs, as well.
  • On lineups built around other QB stacks I want to play, I will strongly consider a one-off play or mini correlation from this game or using one of the defenses (likely the KC D/ST of the two).
• Beyond this key game, it’s another week loaded with RB options between high-priced studs in great spots and/or fresh off their bye weeks and some value options that opened up after some mid-late-week injury news. This week, unlike last, there are strong WR options in nearly every pricing tier, as well.

Running Back Approach