Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

Happy Week 15! Happy playoff Best Ball opening round, and season-long fantasy playoffs, to all those who celebrate.

What a crazy, wild, and yet predictable ride this NFL season has been thus far. With Week 15 on the horizon, our last “normal” schedule slate, and the fantasy playoff season upon us, there is certainly no lack of variables to control for this week.

And that’s exactly where I want us to start this week: controlling our minds. It’s likely if you’re reading this, you’ve got skin in the game in at least a few different formats this week. Before building a single DFS roster, there’s likely going to be a strong bias emerging because you know you can envision your QB1 or your low-owned Best Ball player having the best game of their careers on Sunday. We can envision that scenario because we want it to happen. And you could be right, but how those rosters perform has nothing to do with DFS lineups. That’s an important distinction.

We’ve read a lot of words this season, and with the playoff pictures now shifting into gear, this installment of the Angles email does not need to hold you hostage. Let’s get to the beef, and that’s a first-of-its-kind, in 2025, 13-game main slate! There are no wrong answers this week. With more games on the slate than we’re used to, ownership matters just a bit less. How you attack the slate is the only strategy that matters.

A mega (yet normal) Week 15

Let’s be honest, it’s normal to feel like a fish out of water with this many games to break down. One thing is for sure: we won’t be able to overanalyze much here with so many matchups to choose from, so the only effective guidance is to keep this simple. But how?

Crossing off games, teams, situations. Splitting the slate in half? Overstacking a game or two? Team stacking a specific game or two? There is no wrong door; that’s the fun part.

At the macro level, which we all know and love, we have the highest over/under game of the season in Lions // Rams at 55.5(!). That can’t be overstated, as by my count it’s at least a few points higher than any other game we’ve seen this season. Two potent offenses, with the Lions more concentrated than ever, and two defenses that either yield a lot of yards (Lions) or are set in their schemes (Rams). Translation: points are coming, even if salaries will be hard to fit in together. I’m not suggesting you overload or ignore this game, but any breakdown of Week 15 should start here.

Ravens // Bengals has the classic Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow matchup along with a 51.5 total, which would be top of the slate in any other week. We’ve seen this game environment explode many times in the past, as Burrow and Zac Taylor tend to load up on the pass in this matchup, though on Thanksgiving night we only saw one side of the matchup have success. The game should be missing Tee Higgins, but with Burrow now two games back from injury, it’s possible the Bengals offense will be in better rhythm. For Baltimore, it seems we have to look around for any models of consistency, as even Derrick Henry has been inconsistent along with his quarterback and wide receivers this season. Tight ends against the Bengals continue to hit at a historic rate, as Isaiah Likely saw his best of the season on Thanksgiving; is it Mark Andrews’ turn? An Andrews and Likely block together costs just $7.3K on DraftKings.

Bills // Patriots is the next best real-life matchup, with significant AFC East implications and a healthy 49.5 total. Allen and Maye would both finish in the top three of the MVP race if the season ended today, so it’s very possible the division winner could tilt the votes. The Patriots are a tough offense to read, as they haven’t been “pushed” on the scoreboard in a few weeks, and now with a multiple-headed backfield and a crowded WR room, they feel like the AFC version of the Packers. Buffalo has already shown its hand on winning through Allen and Cook’s legs, though we’ll see how last week’s fumbles influence this week’s snap count. At $8K in this matchup, Cook seems like a difficult click.

Green Bay // Denver is another awesome matchup that could come again in February. The Packers’ defense gave up 40 points to the Cowboys in Week 4, but hasn’t conceded more than 25 in any game since. Denver’s 20.5-point implied total feels right, which makes the Broncos’ offense tough to get excited about, and Green Bay’s 22.5 total, against a ferocious pass rush on the road in Denver, doesn’t inspire much either. The general consensus will be a good real-life game with poor fantasy results. Did you subscribe to OWS to follow the general consensus?

Some quick hitters across the rest of the slate include Jacksonville, who is well-positioned, hosting the Jets with a 27.5-point total. They’ll likely get to 24+ here, so just ask yourself how? Seattle similarly welcomes in the limping Colts with a two-touchdown spread. This is another matchup where it’s not how but who of JSN, KW3, Charbonnet, Barner, Shaheed, or the Seattle D/ST gets multiple touchdowns. San Francisco, too, gets the tanking Titans on the schedule at home. CMC is priced for a slate-breaking performance, but this is another game where points should come in batches.

All of these breakdowns, and I didn’t even mention the cold weather?! You’ve probably seen by now, but now that we’re in mid-December, there are plenty of cold-weather games this week, with the notable ones on this slate being in New England, Cincinnati, Chicago, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and New York. It is always hard to gauge how the cold will affect players not named Tua Tagovailoa, but this is yet another variable to keep in mind as the Chiefs fight for desperation and the Eagles look to right their sinking ship, among other things.

The time of year brings plenty of distractions, or in this case variables, and how you are handling them is the key to unlocking this week’s slate. Our competition (“the field,” as we like to call them/us) will be struggling with this dynamic this week as well. Are we into weather takes or player takes? Season-long fantasy or daily rosters? Our minds are scattered, and simplifying is best.

My advice is simple, too: focus on this slate (or the one you choose to play on Sunday). Knock out the other noise if you can. It’s okay to roster your opponent’s stud RB as a hedge. It’s okay to root for a shootout in Pats // Bills, Commanders // Giants, even if you have limited exposure to it on your season-long rosters.

Crazy things will happen on the DFS slate. Let’s be here for that this week. May you win something significant or advance your roster(s) this week to make Week 15 a memorable one, and keep Week 16 meaningful just the same!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 10 ::

JM’S JOURNAL SCHEDULE DETAILS ::

I’ll be working a bit backward this week.

most weeks, i open my journal entries with pricing // combo // slate-level thoughts first, and then usually around wednesday or sometime thursday, i work through some game-level thoughts.

with travel // settling in // christmas decorating at the front end of this week, we’ll open things on wednesday afternoon/night with game-level thoughts, and we’ll start getting deeper into slate-level stuff on thursday.

i opened the slate for a bit on sunday night and will be diving into it for the next couple hours tonight, but i’ll wait to put together more comprehensive thoughts through that lens until i have a more complete understanding of what i’m looking at.

should be a fun week.

see you tomorrow 🤝

INITIAL SLATE BIG-PICTURE THOUGHTS ::

As I mentioned last night, I’m going to go through some game-level thoughts to kick things off. (I have both kids under my watch right now, while Abby is at the grocery store, but they generally do well not interrupting unless it’s “important.” With that, I expect to be digging into game-level research/thoughts over the next 3/4 hours, and then come back after bedtimes tonight to wrap up all my thought on this level.) Tomorrow, I’ll start hitting slate-level notes.

But before I go into games, I just wanted to drop a few abbreviated notes I left for myself while working my way through the slate last night ::

‘Houston should score 20-27.’

‘The Jags are going to score close to 30 at home against the Jets.’

‘I don’t see a lot of points in the KC // LAC game. 20-23 type of game.’

‘Buf // NE as a 26-23, 27-23 type of game.’

‘5 of Dart’s last 6 games have had 48 or more combined points — and if he gets hurt, Jameis comes in. There will be points in this one.’

‘Ertz was soaking up legitimate targets. Small boost to all.’

‘JSN + Barner have scored basically 35-45 combined points in six of their last seven against “not Minnesota or Houston” — and Indy is very much not Minnesota or Houston. Great use of $11.8k.’

‘DST list might just be Seattle // New Orleans // Cincy.’

‘Jayden Higgins 2.11 pre-touchdown points per game across his last five, with a touchdown added in two.’

‘Giants RBs ($10.5k) in their last 4 — 23.5 // 20.7 // 36.6 // 18.4.’ (Just running some numbers here. This is not an attractive game log for that price.)

‘Panthers RBs ($11.2k) in their last 5 — 30.3 // 19.7 // 18.8 // 17.8 // 32.8.’ (Just running some numbers here. This is not an attractive game log for that price.)

These are initial notes, of course, and I’m sure I’ll play around with some upside scenarios in the games where I quoted scores // ‘ways the game will play out’ above.

Macro, this week looks full of possibilities.

Running back is thin outside CMC, but there are options in the bucket of, “Yeah, I can see it — I can get a solid score for the price, and can get lucky with something bigger” at basically every price point.

WR has Puka and JSN in good spots (with the game environment for Puka standing out), a strong case to be made for Ja’Marr Chase and ARSB, big ceiling in the high-$6ks with A.J. Brown and Nico Collins, opportunity to the upside in the low-$6ks with Olave and Jamo, plenty of attractive plays in the $5ks (Devonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Ricky Pearsall, etc.), and even some perfectly fine salary savers (Jeudy, Slayton, Adonai Mitchell, Higgins, etc.).

McBride and Bowers are in tough spots, which probably lowers the eye level to $5.4k (Kittle) and below at TE. There are so many attractive price-considered options at the position, from Kittle to Warren to Kincaid to Strange/Schultz (and others in this range) to Loveland/Theo Johnson/Likely/Barner/etc. down low.

Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson (if we think he’s healthy) can all have stories told of their game taking off in such a way that they post a “had to have it” score; but in addition to these stories that can be told, we have plenty of sub-$6k QBs who look like solid bets for 3.5x to 4.5x salary.

Again: this week looks full of possibilities.

Let’s get to it.

BILLS-PATRIOTS THOUGHTS ::

I’m not necessarily looking at Bills // Pats as a fantasy gold mine.

The Pats rarely produce useful fantasy scores — and even when they do, our chances of correctly guessing where they’ll come from are low.

It’s unlikely to be Hunter Henry this week (we can usually pinpoint the spots where he’s likelier to pop for a big game, and Buffalo’s strong TE defense is not one of those spots), and with the Patriots back to a split backfield against the Giants (with Rhamondre taking the bigger share of early-game work, but obviously being the far less efficient back as well), it’s tough to get too excited about the backfield as well.

This leaves us hunting through Pats wideouts; but as we explored last week (and saw play out with Ja’Marr Chase) :: Buffalo has gotten really strong against WR1s since getting worked over by WR1s in three of their first six games. Last week, I ended up with Tee Higgins on my Josh Allen build (basically thinking: ‘If the Bills successfully scheme away Chase, but Burrow still plays well, as expected, it’s likely that Tee Higgins gets opportunities to shine.’ But with the Patriots, things are even less straightforward, as they don’t even have a true “number one,” let alone a clear “number two” we can shift attention to if working our way down the line. If someone from the Patriots pops, I imagine it’ll be a wide receiver with a nice price-considered score, but I don’t know that I’ll be chasing.

On the Bills’ side, James Cook looks more attractive than the matchup would make it seem, as the Patriots (who famously didn’t allow a 50-yard rusher through the first couple months of the season) have not been nearly as scary since Milton Williams went down — but at cost, I’m still not sure I feel confident here. He fits into a big bucket of running backs where I’m saying, “Yeah, I can see it happening; but I won’t feel confident placing the bet.”

Wide receivers are obviously a complete dart throw on the Bills.

And all of this means, ultimately, two things stand out to me in this game:

1) Dalton Kincaid

2) Josh Allen

Kincaid was back to his normal snap share last week (which, unfortunately, is just over 50% of team snaps). At $4.5k, he has scored 14+ in five of eight games, including games of 19.8 and 25.1. Compared to wideouts priced similarly, he’s a steal; and as we know, tight ends are one of the best ways to attack the Pats.

As to Allen: same as last week, it’s about making a comprehensive game environment bet. Because the Pats spread the ball around, you don’t technically need a Pats bring-back in smaller-field contests. (That is to say: if Allen is hitting for a tourney winner, it’s highly likely that SOMEONE from the Pats is hitting; but because it’s a guessing game, the math is still probably in your favor in smaller-field contests to NOT try to guess. In large-field play, you have to shift over to the thinking if, “I don’t know who will hit; but if Allen is hitting, someone on the Pats is hitting, and someone else in this tournament will have that player, so I have to guess and try to have that player as well.”) But even without a bring-back, you should be thinking about how this game plays out in such a way that Allen is asked to be Superman, and is putting the slate out of reach at his price tag.

Ultimately, for smaller-field play — especially in a game that I think is likelier to have both teams scoring in the 20s than in the 30s — I’ll probably be off this spot outside Kincaid. But of course, A) you should pull in thoughts from others // yourself as well, as you may be seeing this spot differently; and B) if I find other thoughts as I get deeper into building rosters on Thursday, I’ll let you know those changes.

BROWNS-BEARS THOUGHTS ::

I’m probably not going to be on the Browns // Bears game.

I expect the Bears to lean run-heavy, and while production could concentrate on one guy against a Browns defense that (embarrassingly) got gashed by Tony Pollard last week, this has been a true split, and it’s not a bet I want to place. On the Browns’ side, Jeudy is in play as a cheaper option with a low floor and a decent price-considered ceiling. Fannin is in play as a heavily-targeted tight end in a good matchup. It’s still tough to get behind the Browns as a confident bet for team touchdowns, however (15.75 implied team total), which will probably tilt me a different direction myself.

GIANTS-COMMANDERS THOUGHTS ::

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

We’ll start with my answer to the first Oracle question about this being a unique slate and go from there:

“First off, we have the game with the highest game total of the season on this slate. Second, it’s a 13-game slate, much larger than the 10 and 11-game slates we’ve grown accustomed to over the previous six to eight weeks. Finally, pricing is tight, with so many key studs we want to jam in and not much in the way of projectable value outside of Woody Marks. The higher game totals and larger slate mean the optimal score is going to be much, much higher than in recent weeks. The tight pricing means we are likely allowed more leeway away from optimal to win GPPs, with true optimal likely including numerous players that hit true outlier production at minimal ownership. This leads to two distinct expected behaviors from the field: (1) people are likely to accept too much variance in search of scores closer to true optimal than are needed to win GPPs, or (2) others are not going to build with enough exposure to risk for the high chance that higher scores are needed to ship GPPs. We’ll discuss more of what this means in the End Around and on The Slate podcast on Saturday.”

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

WOODY MARKS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Marks projects for the most points of the players priced below $6,000 on this slate. He is coming off a career-high 29 opportunities in a win over the Chiefs following the departure of Nick Chubb. Chubb is out, and the Texans are favored by 9.5-points at home against the Cardinals. It all checks out to me.

PUKA NACUA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The Lions continue to deploy man coverage at rates near the top of the league, against which Puka holds a 0.36 TPRR, 3.90 YPRR, and 0.90 FP/RR.

CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. McCaffrey leads the league with 24.6 XFP/G and remained a massive part of the aerial game with all skill position players back to full health. The pure rushing matchup is poor on the ground, but that simply might not matter for CMC.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The Bengals will be without Tee Higgins in a game that could eliminate them from postseason contention. Chase is the player with the clearest path to 15+ targets on the slate.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Marcus Mariota
Devin Neal
Woody Marks
Terry McLaurin
A.J. Brown
Jameson Williams
Mark Andrews
Isaiah Likely
Saints

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

None

As is typical for this point in the year, when pricing is at its tightest, I don’t have any plays I’m considering to be true Blue Chips.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“$4.6k Per Player :: 1”

Marcus Mariota + Terry McLaurin + Theo Johnson

Story:

“This game is on the slate, too!”

Why It Works:

Five of Jaxson Dart’s last six games have featured 48+ total points, and neither defense in this game is much into “stopping opposing offenses.” Marcus Mariota is, objectively, one of the most underpriced players on the slate (as in: the DraftKings algorithm is literally just wrong on him), as he is averaging 19.6 DK points per game across his five starts. Here are some quarterbacks on this slate priced at $6k and above (with their points-per-game in parentheses): Bo Nix (19.0) // Jared Goff (18.8) // Brock Purdy (17.8) // Justin Herbert (19.5) // Lamar Jackson (18.3). Patrick Mahomes (22.2) at $6.5k is the first quarterback on this slate averaging more points per game than Mariota. You’re basically getting a $6.3k quarterback for $5k in this spot, in a good matchup and a likely good game environment.

Another one of the most underpriced players on the slate is Terry McLaurin, who averaged 16.7 DK points per game last year — more than Nico ($6.7k), A.J. Brown ($6.8k), and Davante Adams ($7.2k). He should be close to his full snap rate this week; and even if you dent his expectations with Mariota under center (which I don’t think you necessarily have to do), he should be more than $5.4k in this offense.

Finally, we have Theo Johnson, who has averaged 6.6 targets per game across Dart’s last five starts, along with 8.2 pre-touchdown points per game in this stretch (2.34x his salary, representing an elite number). Add in the fact that a third of Dart’s red zone passes are going to Johnson, and he completes this block while lowering the average cost and opening up tons of salary flexibility.

How It Works:

I’m fine rolling with just Mariota + McLaurin here, and I’ve even messed around with Mariota naked this week; but with this full stack, you pay $4.6k per roster spot and A) create pathways to 4x salary production (or better!), while B) opening salary flexibility across the rest of your roster.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“$4.6k Per Player :: 2”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Just A Few Doors Down

According to IMDB, Neal Marks was involved in “Production Finance and Accounting” on the 2017 documentary Just a Few Doors Down (zero ratings on IMDB; nonexistent on Rotten Tomatoes). That’s an unheralded job, on an apparently forgettable documentary (“From the cube farm to a whiskey bar, Just a Few Doors Down follows the story of 6 entrepreneurs around the world, whose parallel lives tell the struggle of fostering an environment of creative collisions, co-working spaces and the adversity of mixing technology with dreams”; put it on the watch list!).

This week, Neal // Marks gets a chance to hopefully do something more memorable.

Devin Neal costs $5.3k, and is coming off a three-game stretch averaging 10.1 pre-touchdown points per game (not elite for the price, but much better than you typically get from sub-$6.5k running backs), while Woody Marks costs $5.6k and (assuming we get this game without Nick Chubb) has clear pathways to 20+ touches (last week, Chubb got hurt after eight snaps, and Marks played all but one running back snap the rest of the game — coming out only after getting banged up on a play). There is clear opportunity for 22-36 DK points for $10.9k in salary; and if CMC ($9k) has one of his games in the low-20s instead of the low-30s, there is also clear opportunity on this slate for this type of return on salary spent to be at the high end of what’s available for running backs.

Furthermore, wide receiver is full of options, including quite a few high-priced guys who have clear pathways to big production this week.

With all of this in mind, I want to make sure I mess around with rosters that pay down at both running back spots.

The rule below says, “On 100% of rosters, play Devin Neal and Woody Marks.”

You’ll also see a screenshot of a setting change to NOT allow a running back in the FLEX, which creates the type of build I want to mess around with.

Obviously, I would not plan to run this rule on 100% of rosters. But the goal here would be to curate my player pool in the Bink Machine, and to then run a few hundred rosters with this rule to see might be possible with this starting point on a build.

$4.88/Week!

At $39 for rest-of-season (playoffs included!), you can grab the Bink Machine for only $4.88/week.

If you try it and find it isn’t a valuable tool for you, just let us know, and we’ll refund your money.

The Bink Machine is not just for MME players(!). It’s an incredibly powerful process-enhancer for SE/3-Max // hand-building as well.

AGAIN: No risk. If you try it, and it isn’t a fit for you, just let us know, and we’ll send you back your money.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Marcus Mariota || Lamar Jackson || Josh Allen || >>—<< || I’m also considering Cam Ward, in a structure that bets on “fitting in as many high-priced pieces as possible” being more valuable than “prioritizing stacks,” and I also like all of Burrow // Stafford // Goff. (I just don’t have enough rosters available to get to all of them.)

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Christian McCaffrey – CMC has a high floor and a massive ceiling in this game as the 49ers are projected to score around 30 points, and he is the centerpiece of their offense. Receptions and big plays are on the table. Buckle up.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – Elite talent in a potentially wild game environment. Gibbs has 37+ points in four of his last seven games and I won’t be shocked if he does it again.
• Derrick Henry – Remember.
• Saquon Barkley – Lowest salary he has had as an Eagle in a home matchup in which the Eagles are likely to try to limit what they ask of Jalen Hurts after his implosion on Monday night.
• TreVeyon Henderson – Panic ensued after Henderson evenly split work with Rhamondre Stevenson on Monday night of Week 13 against the Giants. However, the Patriots controlled that game the whole way and had a Week 14 bye, while this week they face the Bills in a massive AFC East showdown. I expect Henderson to be the main guy this week and he has a massive ceiling against this Bills run defense.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – Seems to have taken over the bell cow role at this point and left Tuten in the dust. The matchup is solid and the team is a big favorite against a Jets team with a third-string QB. The biggest concern would be touchdowns going to other players early and the team preserving him late.
• Chuba Hubbard – Only $4,600 and in a “fine” matchup, good weather, and road favorite. Hubbard handled 19 touches in Week 13 against the Rams and looked the best he has all season, then had a bye week to add even more juice to his legs.

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Do or Die

The first truly tense week of the season. Win-or-go-home for NFL teams, fantasy degenerates, and anyone still clinging to a Best Ball roster that didn’t hitch itself to Kyle Pitts — all while trying to leave 2025 with their bankroll intact.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

Jameson Williams / Colby Parkinson


We’re going to want to account for this game and its likelihood of fantasy scoring. Most of the cogs in this wheel are either priced up, heavily owned, or both. This is a way to grab a chunk of potential TD equity without going full chalk or breaking the bank.


Williams — $6,100 (9.6%), Parkinson — $3,200 (8.8%)

James Cook / Kayshon Boutte


Since losing DT Milton Williams to injured reserve after Week 11, New England’s run defense has quietly fallen apart. The field won’t see that, though — they’ll see the red “3rd” under opponent ranks in the DK app, scroll past, and hunt for savings to pair with Christian McCaffrey. Cook sits in a nice pocket here: expensive enough to scare people off, low-owned enough to matter, and live in a script where Buffalo scores without pushing Josh Allen into full Superman mode. Boutte should be left singled for some of Drake Maye’s precise yet majestic deep shots.


Cook — $8,000 (5.7%), Boutte — $5,000 (1.0%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 15 has four games that pique my interest:

• Ravens @ Bengals (51.5)
• Lions @ Rams (54.5)
• Commanders @ Giants (46.5)
• Bills @ Patriots (49.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Ravens @ Bengals (51.5)

This game has a special place in my heart because I’ve won more money stacking this one than any other game. It’s highly predictable. The Bengals are going to throw, throw, throw, and the Ravens are going to attack on the ground.  When the Ravens do take to the air, they’re going to get their TEs involved. This game has produced a lot of chalk over the years, but ownership projections aren’t predicting anyone to be highly owned other than Ja’Marr Chase. Interestingly, Joe Burrow is only projected for 5% ownership, which means that even though Chase will be chalk, stacking him with Burrow won’t be a common approach. If you add Chase Brown (projected 5% ownership) to the stack, you’ve created a unique combination that is highly correlated. Even Derrick Henry (projected 11% ownership) isn’t going to be chalk, which means adding him as a Ravens bring back won’t make your lineup more common. With everyone flocking to the next game on our list, the field seems to be overlooking this game’s potential. It’s going to be cold (in the teens), and there is some correlation between extreme cold and scoring, but a lot of the games are going to be played in the cold, and I don’t think it’s enough to lessen expectations. My favorite way to play this game is Burrow + Chase + Tinsley + Henry + Ravens TE.

Lions @ Rams (54.5)

The game of the week, and without checking, the highest total we’ve seen so far this season. This game is expected to produce a lot of points. It’s a contest between two high-scoring offenses, played in good conditions. I’m going to have exposure to this game on my tighter builds, but I might fade it on my main lineup. Why? Because everyone is going to be popular, all the players are expensive, and it’s not an easy game to target. On the Lions side, Gibbs is projected to be chalk, but because of Christian McCaffrey and Gibbs both having high price tags, you essentially must pick one or the other, and I’m not sure I like Gibbs more than CMC. The Lions passing game has a tough matchup, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has only produced two games all year that you’d really want at his price tag. Those came against the Giants and Bears, both of which are easy matchups. Jameson Williams is interesting, and he’s produced six quality games in his last eight, but the two duds were literal zeroes. He has the biggest gap in his floor/ceiling of any player on the slate. Puka Nacua is coming off his best game of the season, but he is priced up to the point that playing him makes it hard to build the rest of your roster, unless also fading the top RBs. Davante Adams is priced too high for a guy who lives off touchdowns – he’s not the type of player I use in DFS. The Rams backfield has become a split. This game has a monster total, and these teams are going to score, but I’m struggling to figure out who to use in DFS. My favorite way to stack this game is Stafford + Puka + Williams.

Commanders @ Giants (46.5)

This is the classic game between two bad teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. Neither team has anything to play for, so they might as well have fun! That’s how I see this one playing out, and that’s a pattern that has been repeated over the years. It’s difficult to find value on this slate, and this game provides some cheap options that can produce big scores. Both defenses have struggled, and both offenses have been fun (at times). The passing games on both sides are cheap, and you can justify using Tyrone Tracy to save salary, as he is set to return from injury. This game means nothing in real life, but sometimes those games are the best ones for DFS late in the season. My favorite way to stack this game is Mariota + McLaurin + Deebo + Johnson.

Bills @ Patriots (49.5)

This game makes the list because it’s going to produce points, but like the Rams/Lions game, it’s not easy to target for DFS. The Patriots run defense has been middling (16^th in DVOA), which is an okay matchup for James Cook, but he’s priced like an elite option, and hasn’t produced an elite fantasy score since Week 8. Josh Allen tends to take over later in the season, but he’s priced $500 higher than the next closest QB, and on a slate with almost no value, it’s hard to pay up at QB. Allen’s issues are compounded by not having a reliable stacking partner. There is no one on the Bills you can feel good about pairing with Allen, and when Allen explodes, it’s almost always because he’s scoring rushing touchdowns. Drake Maye is also priced like an elite option and doesn’t have a reliable stacking partner, but he doesn’t offer Allen’s rushing upside. The Bills run defense has been poor (30^th in DVOA), but the Patriots backfield has devolved into a near even split between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. I’m going to have exposure to this game, but I’m not sure exactly how I’m going to make that happen. My favorite stack right now is Allen + Cook + Henderson, which is a bit awkward, but I see it as the best way to capture the points in this game.

Key Values

Marcus Mariota ($5,000)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 15 Topics

1. A Unique Slate

2. Construction Zone

3. Hidden Gem

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

We’ll start with the obvious, which is the fact that this is a 13-game slate. With International games, double MNF games, bye weeks, and late-season Saturday games, these 13-game slates have become extremely rare.

But in addition to this slate having 13 games on it, we have several game environments that stand out well above the others, and we have several other teams with high scoring expectations.

These latter two factors have apparently led me to a much tighter player pool than I typically have. Without realizing this as I was creating my player pool, I don’t have nearly as many names in my pool as I typically do.

In short: a larger-than-normal slate; but with certain spots standing out well above the others, it’s a larger-than-normal slate that organically pointed me toward a smaller-than-normal pool.

That’s definitely unique.

And that’s definitely a setup I’ll gladly take.

Xandamere >>

It’s a big slate, and there are some really elite-looking spots with great offenses in high total games. That doesn’t mean they’ll hit, of course, but the setup looks good. 

The big thing about the size of the slate is that means one of two things will occur. Ownership might spread out because of the extra games, which might mean “good plays” are relatively lower owned compared to a more condensed slate. Or, ownership might stay concentrated on the “good plays” despite there being more other spots that we could attack, leading to opportunities to be contrarian at lower than normal ownership. I’d guess it’s more likely the former – most of the time on big slates we see ownership spread around more, and so if you’re a “play the best plays” kind of DFS player that’s an advantage to you – getting to play the “best plays” at lower ownership is better than playing them at higher ownership! 

I would also say it’s a week to avoid middling plays. Especially to folks who play a lot of entries in MME, it’s really easy to let your player pool inflate because of “what if” plays – guys who COULD hit for a solid game, and while we recognize they aren’t the likeliest guys to do so, they could and it’s tempting to give ourselves exposure. On a really big slate there are a LOT of plays like that. This is also a slate with a couple of very, VERY appealing game environments – so if you’re chasing those middling plays, not only do you need them to hit but you probably also need multiple elite game environments to fail in order for the mid-tier “hits” to lead you to tournament wins. Could it happen? Of course! But it’s a pretty fine needle to thread.

Hilow >>

First off, we have the game with the highest game total of the season on this slate. Second, it’s a 13-game slate, much larger than the 10 and 11-game slates we’ve grown accustomed to the previous six to eight weeks. Finally, pricing is tight, with so many key studs we want to jam in and not much in the way of projectable value outside of Woody Marks.

Let’s break this down a bit.

The higher game totals and larger slate mean the optimal score is going to much, much higher than in recent weeks. The tight pricing means we are likely allowed more leeway away from optimal to win GPPs, with true optimal likely including numerous players that hit true outlier production at minimal ownership. This leads to two distinct expected behaviors from the field: (1) people are likely to accept too much variance in search of scores closer to true optimal than are needed to win GPPs, or (2) others are not going to build with enough exposure to risk for the high chance that higher scores are needed to ship GPPs. We’ll discuss more of what this means in the End Around and on The Slate podcast on Saturday.

Mike >>

The Lions and Rams game profiles to me as the Game of the Year. It reminds me of the Lions game against the Bills in Week 15 of 2024 where both teams ended up going over 40 points and littering the leaderboards. The timing is perfect as such a big slate allows ownership to be spread thin and people to let FOMO take over and spread out their focus. This game, along with BAL/CIN and BUF/NE are so clearly the spots that are going to post big scores that I feel like I am seeing the slate very clearly and love how things set up.

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2. Construction Zone

The Question ::

We often have “Value Plays” as a question in The Oracle as we look for specific spots to target. This week, however, there is a huge pool of games/teams/players which means simply asking “which cheap guys do you like?” isn’t going to be of much use to our subscribers. Instead, it feels like this week will be decided primarily by Roster Construction. We can make this question a binary one to make sure our answers are more direct. Which of these roster constructions do you think is most likely to be optimal when the games end on Sunday?

1. “Cheap/Value Stacks” built around expensive individual pieces with high ceilings
2. Expensive/Premium Stacks built around cheap one-off/value pieces
3. A relatively balanced construction

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

I don’t write much here of value some weeks. But given the opportunity five seasons ago, my one commitment in every piece was to write something I would want to read. Selfish? Maybe. But interesting and unique? I definitely hope so. As the seasons have progressed, slates come and slates go and nearly every week I learn something just from playing DFS. And yet every week, because the odds heavily favor it, I walk away most weeks having to take those learnings and apply to the next week without a major win. One of the best parts of DFS, though, when you do it for long enough (2014 for me), is that slates start to remind you of previous ones, and you have a much better feel for how to process information. This 13-game main slate is no different. The NFL in 2025 means news cycles begin Sunday night, and by Saturday morning there are usually some strong themes or groupthink that forms. The data is SO good now that the good chalk is better than it ever was. It was a competitive edge years ago to do your own research, but now it’s simply a waste of time. What is still a competitive edge, though, is being unique in your own way because we know that the larger the slate, the more open paths there are to 250-point rosters.

Some real commonalities forming this week include:

• Lions // Rams about to take off (I feel very strongly about this one, too)
• Ravens // Bengals & Bills // Pats next in line
• High-priced WRs (JSN, Puka, Chase, ARSB) . . . .yes, please
• CMC in a can’t miss spot
• Texans, Seahawks, Jaguars, 49ers should all crush

Ignoring all of these thoughts is not the way. But taking some of them and leveraging them against (in a smart way) is the path. The data is too good now that there’s levels to this thinking. It used to be that we had bad chalk nearly every week. It’s now the case that the projections are going to be right more times than they will be wrong, and we must recognize that. If you are playing large-field GPPs, however, there is ALWAYS an angle to explore that is different. Sometimes, that angle will be something you uncover yourself. Sometimes, I hope I can provide it here in this space. Sometimes, we get underowned paths that this website (multiple contributors) is all over, and sometimes, it’s one that a different site is all over instead. Whatever it may be, whatever flavor of ice cream you prefer, on this massive slate there is no wrong answer. “You do you” as the kids say this week. And for me, that means team stacks and game overstacks.

Lions // Rams with an overstacked twist

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 15 Overview

A five-game slate!! Good stuff. These slates are the ones that are really fun because they still have all the aspects of smaller slates that we love, but there is enough going on that it is easier to separate yourself from the crowd. This year also marks exactly one year since I topped the slate on the week that the Bills and Lions had a shootout, which is also ironic because of the Rams and Lions game projecting similarly to how that game did last year. Ultimately, five games is not simply “two more games” than we had last week. It is a 67% increase in the size of the player pool we have to choose from and creates significantly more avenues for how we build our teams. Here are a few of the things that stand out to me:

• As we saw last week, when one of our subscribers WON the $50 single entry tournament on DraftKings for the Afternoon slate with 216.36 points, a lineup made from only this slate can absolutely take down a main slate tournament. This is certainly a slate where that is in play again, and something you should consider.
• The DET/LAR game stands out to such a massive extent that it is hard not to build around it. On the aforementioned 2024 Week 15 slate, the lineup I took it down with was a Goff + ARSB + LaPorta stack with a James Cook bring-back. There were other players from that game who also did well, so a massive game overstack is in play, although the bigger issue there is the salaries involved this time around. The other main difference is that this game features TWO pocket passers, instead of Josh Allen soaking up a bunch of the scoring himself in that Bills game. 
• Ricky Pearsall might be the strongest leverage play on the slate, as he’ll probably be 4 to 8% owned (low on a smaller slate for a talented full-time player on a team that is scoring a lot), and a big game from him could end up allowing the 49ers offense to coast and leaving CMC and Kittle in spots where they disappoint.
• That being said, stacks around the 49ers offense are very interesting, as they could easily score five or six touchdowns. It would make sense to include CMC (if the 49ers score 40 points, CMC is probably doing really well), but a Purdy double without him would certainly differentiate you.
• Cheap stacks like the Saints and Titans are in play, but I lean towards keeping them on the smaller end so I can load up on more of the premium options. By that, I mean I will probably have some Tyler Shough lineups on this slate, but it will be Shough plus one pass catcher, and maybe a Carolina piece coming back….rather than the way I might build on some previous afternoon slates with two Saints pass catchers and definitely using one or two Carolina players.
• There are a bunch of cheap RBs (Chuba, Corum, Montgomery, both SEA RBs, Pollard, Neal) who have clear paths to 15+ points, and that roster construction is probably my favorite on the slate.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• Josh Allen – Super Josh, engaged.
• Lamar Jackson // Joe Burrow – The cold weather isn’t really a concern for me. These two teams played in two shootouts last season and would have had another on Thanksgiving if not for a couple of fluky plays sabotaging the Ravens scoring.
• Jared Goff // Matthew Stafford – Potentially the game of the year. These pocket passers both have paths to a 30-point game and we know with a high degree of certainty which pass catchers they will bring with them if they do.
• Marcus Mariota – Rushing ability and matchup provides a solid floor. There is a ceiling here as well in a quietly exciting game environment.

Running Back::

• Christian McCaffrey – CMC has a high floor and a massive ceiling in this game as the 49ers are projected to score around 30 points, and he is the centerpiece of their offense. Receptions and big plays are on the table. Buckle up.
• TreVeyon Henderson – Panic ensued after Henderson evenly split work with Rhamondre Stevenson on Monday night of Week 13 against the Giants. However, the Patriots controlled that game the whole way and had a Week 14 bye, while this week they face the Bills in a massive AFC East showdown. I expect Henderson to be the main guy this week and he has a massive ceiling against this Bills run defense.
• Woody Marks – Elite workload and great matchup at modest salary.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – Seems to have taken over the bell cow role at this point and left Tuten in the dust. The matchup is solid and the team is a big favorite against a Jets team with a third-string QB. The biggest concern would be touchdowns going to other players early and the team preserving him late.
• Jahmyr Gibbs – Elite talent in a potentially wild game environment. Gibbs should also have relatively modest ownership on Fanduel because he is priced above CMC.
• Derrick Henry – Remember.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Joe Burrow + Mike Gesicki + Mark Andrews + Kyren Williams

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• With no teams on bye, and no “extra” primetime games on this week’s schedule, Week 15 offers an enormous 13-game FD main slate. There’s a nice split this week between eight early games and five kicking off in the later window. The sheer volume of games offers a wide variety of game environments to consider:
  • There are six games with home favorites of 7+ points (four by double-digits) 
  • Four road favorites, all of 2.5 points or less
  • Two implied game totals over 50 points
  • Two implied game totals under 40 points
• Like last week, one game, and implied game total, stands somewhat above the rest, with the Lions (24.5) at Rams (30.5) game sporting a massive 55.0 point total. This is two points clear of last week’s projected and realized “game of the week” shootout in Buffalo. The Bengals (24.5) host the Ravens (27.0) in the “other” game projected to top 50 real-life points on this slate.
• Outside of those two fifty-implied-point games, seven more teams are sporting implied team totals of 24.5+, and six teams are projected to score fewer than 17.0 points. If you’re wondering, yes, many of those groups of teams play against each other and make up many of the massive point spreads on this week’s slate.
• In honor of this uniquely large FD main slate, I’m going to cheat this week and provide three key points I’m considering as my “starting point” for my SE/3-Max lineups this week:
  • I like the Lions at Rams game a lot, not a profound thought, but it is part of the rest of my overall strategy for this week. I want to play some different combinations of key players from this game, many of whom come with steep FD price tags this week.
  • The Panthers (21.5) at Saints (19.0) game is my next favorite game environment among the other four later kickoffs. This game features several affordable pieces that can be played around expensive Rams, Lions, and others. It’s a game that I plan to build at least one game stack around, and intend to feature a player or mini correlation from this game in several of my main lineups.
  • With much of my focus on two of the later-window kickoffs. The final key point I’m considering this week is being strategic with the players that I play and the salary that I spend in the early window. I want to get as many combinations of my favorite late-game options as I possibly can.

Running Back Approach