Week 17 Matchups

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
31) at

Jets (

Over/Under 47.5


Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Buccaneers currently have eight players on the league’s COVID list, most notably wide receivers Mike Evans and Jaelon Darden, cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting, and defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches (UPDATE: holy hell there are a ton of moving pieces late-week here. Mike Evans was activated off the COVID list but is questionable with injury, Antonio Brown is questionable with injury, head coach Bruce Arians is isolating at home with COVID, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett are OUT, Rakeem Nunez-Roches was activated off the COVID list, Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting remain on the list, and Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette remain on IR… woof).
  • The Jets currently have nine players on the COVID list, most notably left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, tight end Tyler Kroft, and six defensive starters.
  • Likeliest scenario sees the Bucs absolutely trouncing the Jets, but there are some very interesting “mini-tributaries” that could develop here and should be considered.
  • The Bucs are expected to score a lot, they are an extremely concentrated offense, and there are very clear New York bring-backs.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

As we saw last week (and as we expected to be the case), the Buccaneers are toeing a thin line between returning to health and continuing to take advantage of live game repetitions as they prepare for the playoffs. Although Tom Brady took all but three offensive snaps in a game the Bucs won handily, he attempted his lowest passes of the season by a large margin. This came in a game where the team was missing Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette. The team is still taking each play as an additional chance to tweak things leading into the postseason, as evidenced by Antonio Brown’s 15 targets on 30 Tom Brady pass attempts, or Ronald Jones II seeing 23 running back opportunities on only 64 offensive plays or the fact that they put up 30 or more points for the ninth time this season; but, they are now mixing in chances to return to health as their chances of the NFC bye continue to dwindle with each passing week. Tampa Bay would now need to win out, would need the Packers to lose out, and would need both the Cowboys and the Rams to lose one of their remaining games in order to find themselves atop the NFC.

With that discussion in mind, we should simultaneously expect the Buccaneers to continue to pay close attention to execution during individual plays and not push the envelope if the game is in hand. This is particularly important considering their opponent this week, a Jets team that they should have no problems dispatching. With Leonard Fournette on IR and out this week, expect Ronald Jones II to once again lead the backfield in opportunities, albeit with the additional caveat of Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s outstanding performance in Week 16 on limited opportunities. Although there was a large discrepancy in actual opportunities, Vaughn played only 11 fewer snaps than his backfield counterpart. As such, I wouldn’t immediately assume Jones sees more than the 52% snap rate he saw a week ago. Weigh those thoughts against expected ownership and the fact that this backfield has room to the upside considering the Bucs ran only 64 offensive plays last week. The matchup on the ground is a pure one, generating a massive 4.645 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jets defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (35.0). The final piece of this puzzle is the pass game roles or lack thereof. Jones and Vaughn saw a combined four targets on 30 Tom Brady dropbacks last week and there is nothing in this matchup that points to that target share increasing, particularly considering Mike Evans is due back from the COVID list.

We should once again expect this pass game to be highly concentrated, as the team continues to play without Chris Godwin. Mike Evans should return to his typical near every-down perimeter role, while Antonio Brown is moved around the formation, with Rob Gronkowski in his normal allotment of slots (85-90%), and Tyler Johnson and Breshad Perriman working in to fill vacated snaps on the perimeter. Of note, the team shifted to a much heavier 12-personnel usage rate last week, which should largely be attributed to available personnel. That said, we could see the same heavy sets once more here (almost 70% of their offensive snaps came with multiple tight ends on the field last week, and Cyril Grayson was forced into a 79% snap rate role in only his third iteration of game action the entire year). The Jets can be beaten any which way (29th in DVOA against the run, 32nd against the pass), so we need to weigh expected ownership against expected volume to define where the Bucs exposure ends up this week.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

We’ve seen a very polarized set of offensive game plans from the Jets this year, particularly over the previous five games. Three of those games (against Jacksonville, Miami, and Houston) saw Zach Wilson attempt 24 passes or fewer in games against opponents that could be run on, while Wilson attempted 42 passes and 38 passes against the Saints and Eagles, respectively. This is important information as we think through the possible angles that the Jets could take this week, in that we can side a little heavier on the assumption of rational coaching because head coach Robert Saleh has been exactly that this season – a rational coach. Against a Buccaneers team that ranks top five in most metrics against the run on defense and could be without two members of their secondary that also has a healthy Vita Vea clogging the interior of their defense, we can safely assume the game plan will include increased pass rates this week.

New York’s backfield has become a little bit easier to decipher as the season has progressed. Tevin Coleman will typically be held to a 30-45% snap rate, Michael Carter is the lead back when fully healthy and should continue to see 70%+ of the offensive snaps to end the season, and Ty Johnson is typically active but only sees work if either Coleman or Carter is out, or the game gets extremely out of hand. That said, any allure to this backfield should be focused around expected or potential game flow instead of the backfield split, as this team has so clearly adapted to individual game script to dictate their rush-pass splits for the entirety of the season. Considering the previous discussion, we’re highly unlikely to see increased workloads for any member of this backfield this week. The matchup on the ground yields a laughable 3.95 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Tampa Bay defense allowing only 21.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

With Corey Davis and Elijah Moore still out for the Jets, a good deal of our interest in this side of the game should come down to the status of Jamison Crowder this week, who has yet to practice with his calf injury. We know to expect some combination of Keelan Cole, Denzel Mims, and Jeff Smith on the perimeter, but the primary target for the Jets is likely to be whoever plays the slot. Braxton Berrios played a hefty 83% snap rate last week with Crowder out but saw only six targets on only 22 Wilson pass attempts. If we’re expecting Wilson’s pass volume to increase here, we should also expect the slot receiver’s target volume to increase as well. That makes either Jamison Crowder or Braxton Berrios highly intriguing at their low salaries. Tight end Trevon Wesco hit the IR this past week, while Ryan Griffin hit the COVID list last Friday and Tyler Kroft hit the COVID list on Monday, potentially opening up snaps for Daniel Brown and/or Kenny Yeboah. The big picture is the tight end situation is more likely to have a positive impact for either Crowder or Berrios than it would make one of the tight ends themselves viable.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likely to see the Bucs absolutely dismantle the Jets here, primarily through efficiency on offense and a suffocating defense. We’ll cover this a little more in-depth below, but the best chances of the Bucs seeing a ceiling game here rest with the Jets and their ability to put up points, driving this game environment into something more of an aggression-filled back-and-forth as opposed to a waxing. Along those lines, the Jets have scored 18 or more points in four of their last five, but have done so with a higher emphasis on their own run game (Zach Wilson attempted 24 or fewer passes in three of those five games). The likeliest scenario would lead to a much heavier dose of pass volume against the stingy run defense of the Bucs, which opens up more opportunities for Zach Wilson and the rest of the Jets offense to make mistakes, closing the loop on the aforementioned likeliest scenario. But if the Jets can muster 17+ points on the scoreboard before the fourth quarter, we could see the Bucs filtered towards increased aerial aggression for deeper into this game. Keep those thoughts in mind when building pieces of this game into your player pool this week.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Zach Wilson:

  • QB rushing vs TB: Dak (13) // Hurts (44:2) // Fields (38) // Winston (40) // Heinicke (15) // Dimes (10) // Wentz (21) // Allen (109:1) // Taysom (33) // Cam (42)
  • TB has allowed 2+ TDs to 8 QBs; 3+ TDs to 5 QBs
  • Wilson has thrown just 7 TDs to 11 INT in 10 games
  • Wilson’s only games of 20+ DK pts: 226:2:1, rush TD vs PHI // 102:1, 91:1 vs JAC
  • TB faces the most pass att/g (only team of 40+)
  • Wilson’s pass yds since return: 145 // 226 // 202 // 170 // 102


  • TB has allowed 13 WRs of 60+ yds; 5 WRs of 100+ yds
  • TB has allowed the 6th most WR rec and the 10th most WR yds on the 2nd most WR tg
  • Total production in three games since losing Davis & Moore: Berrios (12:115, rush TD) // Crowder (8:59) // Cole (4:61)
  • Targets in that span: Berrios (17) // Crowder (14) // Cole (10)

Michael Carter:

  • No team has allowed fewer RB rush yds than TB in 2021 (nearly 100 less than next closest); No team allowed fewer yds than TB in 2020 (nearly 200 yds less); 2019 TB allowed the fewest by 100+ yds as well
  • In 20 games last season, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • Gurley & AK were the only two RBs to break 20 DK pts in 2019 vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • TB has allowed four 20+ DK pt scores to RBs in 2021
  • Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, combined for 20 rec
  • Patterson, Gaskin, Gibson all scored 2 TDs
  • The four RBs: Patterson (7:11:1, 5:58:1) // Gaskin (5:25, 10:74:2) // Herbert (18:100, 5:33) // Gibson (24:64:2, 2:14)
  • TB allowed the most RB rec in 2020 and are allowing the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 (8th most RB rec yds)
  • Michael Carter has zero games of 2 TDs and just 4 TDs overall
  • Carter receiving in Wilson games: 72 yds in 7 games
  • Carter receiving without Wilson: 244 yds in 5 games
  • Rush att last two weeks: Carter (24) // Coleman (22)

Tom Brady:

  • Jets are allowing 19.4 DK pts/g and are ranked 32nd in def pass DVOA
  • Jets allowed 3 QB TDs in the first 4 games
  • Jets have allowed 22 QB TDs in the last 11 games
  • Every QB since W4 had scored 2+ TDs vs NYJ until Lawrence last week
  • 9 of 15 QBs have passed for 250+ yds vs NYJ (3 over 300 yds)
  • Brady has passed for 250+ yds in 10/15 games (7 over 300 yds)
  • Brady has scored multiple TDs in 11/15 games


  • AB’s tg to start year (Evans/Godwin played in all): 7 // 3 // 11 // 8 // 13
  • AB had 15 of 29 available tg in his first game back with Evans/Godwin out
  • AB has 90+ yds in 4/6 games: 121:1 // 17 // 63 // 124:2 // 93:1 // 101
  • Jets have allowed the 7th fewest WR DK pts/g thanks to the 6th fewest WR TDs allowed (10) & 3rd fewest WR rec allowed (11.1 rec/g) on the fewest faced WR tg
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs NYJ: DJ Moore (80) // Patrick (98) // Higgins (97) // Diggs (162:1), Davis (105) // Hollins (72:1) // MJJ (74)

Rob Gronkowski:

  • Gronk has just two games below 8 tg all season (5, 2), (8, 8, 8, 10, 8, 9, 11)
  • Gronk’s two worst games of the season (combined 3:52) have come in the last two weeks vs NOR & CAR, defenses tough vs the TE
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs NYJ: Henry (42) // Pitts (119:1), Hurst (40:1) // Gesicki (50) // Goedert (105:2) // Vannett (44) // Gesicki (43) // O’Shag (49)


  • Usage in first game without Fournette: Rojo (20 att, 3 tg) // Vaughn (7 att, 1 tg) // Bell (2 att)
  • Yardage totals on touches: Rojo (81:1) // Vaughn (70:1) // Bell (-1)
  • RoJo’s only games with 7+ att in 2021: 10:63 // 8:33:1 // 7:37:1 // 8:63 // 20:65:1
  • RoJo with 15+ att in 2020: 17:66 // 20:111 // 17:106 // 23:113:2 // 23:192:1 // 18:80:1
  • NYJ have allowed 35 DK pts/g to RBs; next closest is 30.7 DK pts/g
  • The Jets have allowed the 4th most RB rush yds, most RB rush TDs, 6th most RB rec, & 2nd most RB rec yds/g
  • Four RBs have had 60+ rec yds vs NYJ (two more of 40+) (four more of 30+)
  • RBs with 80+ total yds vs NYJ: CMC (187) // Gordon (81:1) // Henry (177:1), McNichols (85) // CPatt (114) // Harris (113:2) // Mixon (91:2) // Taylor (200:2), Hines (108:1) // Gaskin (96:1) // Sanders (142), Gainwell (87:1) // AK (145:1) // Duke (127:2)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
19) at

Titans (

Over/Under 41.0


Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Miami’s defense should be the driving force of the game environment here.
  • The Dolphins have allowed just 21.0 points per game while the Titans have allowed just 21.7 points per game so a conference slugfest is the likeliest outcome here.
  • The Dolphins currently have seven players on the COVID list, most notably Albert Wilson, Preston Williams, and starting safety Brandon Jones (UPDATE: Albert Wilson has made his way off the list, with no other players able to do so yet – as of Friday).
  • The Titans currently have eight players on the COVID list, most notably Julio Jones, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Nate Davis, Taylor Lewan, Bud Dupree, and Denico Autry (UPDATE: the Titans have returned all members of the offensive line from the COVID list but all defensive players have yet to be activated).

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Yup, seven straight wins immediately following seven straight losses – that’s quite impressive. What has carried them through the win streak is a defense that has created pressure, generated turnovers, and limited scoring, paired with an offense that has limited mistakes. During the streak, Miami holds a modest 54% overall pass rate, 50% pass rate when playing with a lead, and 59% pass rate when trailing. They have also forced 14 turnovers (two per game average) and amassed 33 sacks (almost five per game average). Those splits would be amongst the narrowest splits in the entire league over the course of the full season, meaning the team very clearly has a game plan and they are sticking to it. What has largely gone missed is how quick this team has played, checking into Week 17 with the second-fastest pace of play in the first half of games (22nd ranked second half pace of play that averages out to 11th overall). They are now playing for a playoff spot out of the AFC (Miami currently sits in the seventh and final playoff spot) so expect more of the same formula that has gotten them here this week.

The ground game has once again devolved into a three-headed timeshare after a significant turnover at the position. The team brought in Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay to work in conjunction with Myles Gaskin down the stretch. Last week was the first week where all four primary running backs (the three previously mentioned plus Salvon Ahmed) were healthy in the same game, and we saw almost a dead-even three-way split in snap rate, with Gaskin at 31%, Johnson at 35%, Lindsay at 29%, and Ahmed the odd man out. This is very much still an offense built around the pass, but routine positive game flow over the last seven weeks has afforded the Dolphins the opportunity to maintain a pass-balanced stature. The matchup on the ground this week yields a laughable 3.915 net-adjusted line yards metric in what should be considered a pass-funnel matchup.

During their seven-game win streak, the Dolphins have attempted more than 36 passes only twice, and one of those games came with Jacoby Brissett under center against the Texans. Tua Tagovailoa has averaged just 31.6 pass attempts in the five games he started and finished during that streak, compared to 38.25 per game in his four fully healthy games prior to that time. Basically, this offense has remained run-balanced when they are able to control games and they are not afraid to forgo the balanced nature when trailing. Rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has emerged as one of the top possession-style wide receivers in the league, currently sitting only five receptions behind Anquan Boldin for the most receptions in a rookie season in NFL history. Joining Waddle in the starting lineup are DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Durham Smythe as the team has transitioned to heavy 12-personnel usage over the second half of the season. Smythe is primarily a blocking tight end, Gesicki plays the majority of his snaps aligned in the slot (75.1% of his snaps this season have come from the slot), and Parker is utilized as a prototypical “X” wide receiver. Behind the primary four pass-catchers, Albert Wilson (currently on the COVID list), Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, and Preston Williams have all mixed in for modest roles of late. Williams was the odd man out last week and I would expect the same moving forward as Wilson returns from the COVID list, primarily due to Ford and Hollins’ heavy special teams roles.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have maintained their slow-paced, run-balanced approach on offense even after Derrick Henry was lost for the season following Week 8. For example, their overall pass rates with and without Henry this season stand at 52% and 54%, respectively. Their pace of play sits at a 22nd ranked situation-neutral 31.84 seconds per play and 25th ranked overall 28.87 seconds per play. The biggest differences between this plan of attack working and not working (as it did so effectively last season and it largely hasn’t this season) have been the drive-disrupting acts of turnovers and sacks. The Titans have given the ball away over 1.7 times per game this season, on average. They have also allowed the fourth-most total sacks and second-highest adjusted sack rate on offense, driving situations that a run-balanced approach simply can’t overcome (late-and-long down-and-distance-to-go situations). Add in the multitude of injuries and COVID issues experienced by this team this season, and we start to see why this offense has been relatively ineffective. All of that said, the Titans currently sit in the second seed out of the AFC and only one game back of the Chiefs for the top overall spot, which is a true testament to the gritty nature of this team (the Titans are 5-2 in one-score games this season and have allowed just 21.7 points per game).

Similar to the Dolphins, this Titans backfield has settled into a three-way timeshare consisting of Jeremy McNichols, D’Onta Foreman, and Dontrell Hilliard. The three have maintained this timeshare over the last three games following Tennessee’s Week 13 bye. The matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.175 net-adjusted line yards metric in a similarly difficult pass-funnel matchup. On top of the difficult on-paper matchup, the Titans currently have three offensive linemen on the COVID list, including Taylor Lewan and two depth pieces. Keep an eye on their respective statuses heading into the weekend.

The passing game has been a revolving door of mediocrity this season as the team has fought through injuries, COVID issues, and ineffective offensive line pass-blocking play. That has led to the team adopting more of a quick-strike, ball-out-quick mentality through the air that has primarily run through AJ Brown and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (COVID). Brown looked fully healthy last week following a three-game (and four-week) absence on the injured reserve, but he was held to just a 74% snap rate as the Titans continue their elevated usages of heavy personnel alignments. Keep an eye on the respective statuses of Julio Jones and NWI as the week progresses, as each is plastered to the league’s COVID list currently. Should they return, expect a smattering of role players as far as pass-catchers are concerned, with Chester Rogers likely joining the fold. Geoff Swaim, MyCole Pruitt, and Anthony Firkser have split snaps at the tight end position all season, and I would expect the same this week. None of the three are viable on a weekly basis as far as fantasy goes.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is likely we see this game environment driven by Miami’s defense, who hold the largest net-sack rate differential on the week (the Dolphins are third in sack rate on defense while the Titans rank second-to-last on offense). Tennessee also ranks 27th in giveaways per game at 1.7, while the Dolphins have generated an average of two turnovers per game over their seven-game win streak. These large differentials are likely to lead to a game where Miami can control the time of possession, pace, flow, and environment, creating an environment that mutes overall fantasy upside from each side. On top of the likeliest game flow, we have two teams that have significant run-balanced leans as far as play-calling goes against two pass-funnel opponents, giving further credence to the idea that this game starts and finishes slow. The Titans are likely to be the ones forced into increased aerial aggression as the game goes on, opening up more opportunities for turnovers to be generated by the aggressive Dolphins defensive unit.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Tannehill has just 3 games of 20+ DK pts in 2021, with a high of just 23.5
  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
  • That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN offensive pts with Henry: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34
  • TEN offensive pts without Henry: 21 // 23 // 13 // 13 // 20 // 13 // 20
  • MIA has allowed four 300-yd passers
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 32 starts since 2020
  • With Brown’s return, Tannehill passed for 200+ yds last week for the first time since W11
  • MIA has allowed 20 TDs to 13 INT in 15 games (10 INT in last 8 g)
  • Allen (3) & Brady (5) are the only QBs with more than 2 TDs vs MIA

AJ Brown:

  • Brown finished with 69% of Tanny’s 209 yds in his W16 return
  • Julio & Westbrook went on COVID list
  • In Brown’s 3g with 10+ tg, Julio has played 43%, 0%, 50% snaps
  • Brown in those games: 8:133:1 // 10:155:1 // 11:145:1
  • Those defenses are allowing WR DK pts/g of 34.6, 35.5, 37.5
  • MIA allows 37.5 WR DK pts/g (7th most)
  • Top performing WR vs MIA: Agholor (5:72:1) // Diggs (4:60:1) // Renfrow (5:77:1) // Pittman (6:59) // Brown (7:124:2), Evans (6:113:2) // MJJ (7:100:1) // Gage (4:67:1) // Beasley (10:110) // Cooks (6:56) // Bateman (6:80) // E Moore (8:141:1) // DJ Moore (4:103) // Golladay (3:37) // Crowder (5:40) // Humphrey (3:70)
  • MIA has faced the 5th most WR tg
  • MIA has allowed the 8th most WR yds


  • 11 rush att was an individual TEN RB high in three games with Adrian Peterson
  • Since cutting him::
  • Foreman: 19:109 // 13:47:1 // 22:108 // 9:17:1
  • Hilliard: 12:131:1 // 6:13 // 9:49 // 6:20
  • McNichols: DNP // 8:16 // 6:26 // 7:31
  • MIA has allowed 60+ rush yds to 8 RBs (3 of 100+)
  • MIA allowed 9 RB TDs in first seven games, but has allowed none over the last eight (those opponents: BUF, HOU, BAL, NYJ, CAR, NYG, NYJ, NOR)
  • MIA ranks 13th in def rush DVOA

Tua Tagovailoa:

  • Tua scored 20+ DK pts in just 3/9 games in 2020 (21.4, 31, 21.2)
  • Tua’s only two games over 20 DK pts in 2021 (25.4, 28.5) came against defenses ranked 31st & 29th in def pass DVOA
  • TEN is ranked 10th in def pass DVOA
  • 9/15 QBs vs TEN have scored 2+ TDs
  • Tua has scored 2+ TDs in 6 of 9 full games
  • Eight QBs have passed for 290+ yds vs TEN
  • Tua has just two games of 290+ yds, and just one other game of 250+ yds


  • Waddle with Tua (4:61:1 // 10:70:2 // 7:83 // 4:29 // 8:65 // 9:137:1 // 9:90 // 10:92:1)
  • Parker with Tua (4:81 // 8:85 // 5:62 // 4:68:1 // 0:0)
  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • TEN has allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts in 2021 (42.1)
  • 10 WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5) // Bourne (23.1) // Deebo (31.1)
  • TEN has allowed 17 WR TDs
  • TEN has allowed the 11th highest success rate to WRs
  • TEN has allowed the most WR rec & yds on the most WR tg faced
  • Tg in games together: Waddle (6, 8, 13, 4, 12, 11, 12) // Parker (7, 9, 7, 9, 11, 5, 0)

Mike Gesicki:

  • Gesicki tg with Tua (full): 2, 9, 8, 4, 6, 3, 11, 8, 4
  • Gesicki has 40+ yds in 11/15 games (other four he combined for 39 yds)
  • Gesicki has 80+ yds in three games
  • From Weeks 3-7, Gesicki scored 18.6, 16.7, 8.3, 22.5, 21.5 DK pts
  • In the other 10 games, Gesicki has averaged 6.7 DK pts/g with a high of 11.6
  • TEN has allowed the 2nd lowest success rate & lowest yds/att to TEs
  • Only TEs over 40 yds vs TEN: Arnold (64) // Kelce (65) // Higbee (51) // Jonnu (49)
  • Only TEs to score vs TEN: Hollister, Sweeney, Doyle


  • Top RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43) // Williams (50) // Taylor (122) // Hendy (58) // Ingram (108) // Burkhead (40) // Harris (52) // JRob (4) // Najee (26) // Wilson (57)
  • TEN has allowed the 2nd fewest RB rush yds & RB DK pts/g (19.1)
  • TEN has allowed just 9 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
  • MIA RB touches since Bye: Duke (35 att, 1 tg) // Gaskin (13 att, 3 tg) // Lindsay (13 att)
  • Duke & Lindsay each had 13 rush att last week

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
12) at

Patriots (

Over/Under 41.5


Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

The Patriots should start with a pass heavy game plan.The Patriots backfield is a timeshare.Hunter Henry dominated snaps the past two weeks.The best DFS play in this game might be the Pats D.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The hideous 2-13 Jaguars come into Week 17 once again the frontrunner to land the first overall pick in the draft. They need help, and not just on the field, as Urban Meyer was tossed after kicking a kicker and using “I’m the . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
19) at

Colts (

Over/Under 46.5


Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • Carson Wentz is currently on the COVID list but could come off in time to play.
  • The Raiders are likely to lean pass heavy.
  • Jonathan Taylor is the premier RB play on the slate.
  • Mo Alie-Cox saw 90% of the snaps last week after Jack Doyle went down with an injury

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The 9-6 Colts come into Week 17 as one of the hottest groups in the league. Frank Reich’s team has gone 8-2, after a 1-4 start, with their only losses coming in OT against the Titans and by one score against the Bucs. The Colts look legitimately good, operating on the back of an elite running game that has pounded even top-tier run defenses (Jonathan Taylor had 5.2 YPC against the Bucs). The Colts are a threat to make a deep playoff run, and still have a slim chance to win their division, which will keep them playing at full speed this week.

The Raiders defense has been middling against the pass (17th in DVOA) and poor against the run (23rd in DVOA against the run). That sets up beautifully for a Colts team that wants nothing more than to let Jonathan Taylor win them games. The Colts run the ball and play slow in all situations. There is no reason to expect anything different here. The Colts are going to try and pound the ball to victory while chewing up the clock.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The 8-7 Raiders come into Week 17 hoping to end their season with a playoff appearance. They are riding a two-game winning streak and are in a four-way tie for the last wild card spot in the AFC with three other teams (Dolphins/Ravens/Chargers). The Raiders are currently in fourth place out of those teams on tiebreakers, which means a loss likely eliminates them from the postseason. This is a must-win game. The Raiders play at a middling pace (17th in situational neutral) but slow down when ahead (26th in pace), and don’t speed up much when losing (23rd in pace), creating a lot of paths for this game to have a low number of plays.

The Colts defense has been lights out against the run (1st in DVOA) and middling against the pass (16th in DVOA). There isn’t much reason to run against the Colts, as you’re essentially just wasting plays. The Raiders have shown they want to throw the ball, and this matchup should encourage them to keep passing. Expect the Raiders to run just enough to keep the Colts defense honest, while skewing pass-heavy from the start of the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish total (44.5) because both teams play at a slow pace in all situations and it’s likely that we see a game without a lot of plays. However, both offenses set up well to attack the relative weakness of their opponents. There is every reason to think the Colts (especially if Carson Wentz plays) will have a high drive success rate. Even though the Colts defense is strong the Raiders are likely to have at least some success moving the ball through the air. The main obstacle to this game taking off is time crunching drives, not the offenses failing. The most likely game flow has the Colts taking control of this game with their running game, and the Raiders trying to keep up through the air, ultimately falling behind late and losing by a touchdown.  



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Had the second highest Vegas total at opening (49.5)
  • Since fallen after Carson Wentz tested positive
  • IND’s implied total fell five points after the news, but has risen again since the new COVID rules have taken effect (although Wentz’s status is still up in the air)
  • With a win, IND clinches a playoff spot (and they’re technically still alive for the AFC South title)
  • IND tied with DET for third best ATS record (10-5)
  • IND hasn’t scored fewer than 20 pts since Week 3
  • Their 28 ppg ranks fifth
  • Their 68.2% red zone TD% allowed ranks tied for the third highest with GB
  • LV is still alive for a wild card spot in the AFC race
  • They’ve scored 20+ pts just once in the last eight weeks
  • Their defense has allowed 25.8 ppg, seventh highest
  • Their 78.9% red zone TD% allowed ranks first, nearly ten percentage points higher than the second ranked team (DET, 69.4%)
  • Per numberFire, LV ranks 14th in adjusted seconds per play (29.3) and sixth in adjusted pass rate (62.2%)
  • IND ranks 31st in adjusted seconds per play (32.7) and 18th in adjusted pass rate (56.7%)

Derek Carr

  • Ranks ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Ranks tied for fifth in YPA (7.8), tied for 10th in ADoT (8.4), and fourth in adjusted completion percentage (78.3%)
  • 17.7 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($5,800) six times: 23.02 (close enough) // 24.02 // 24.54 // 25.24 // 27.18 // 28
  • IND ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.6)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 4x Carr’s Week 17 salary vs. IND: Ryan Tannehill 23.2 // Tannehill 23.48 // Russell Wilson 27.06 // Lamar Jackson 45.88
  • All four of those happened in the first eight weeks
  • Kyler Murray’s 21.9 last week is the only other instance of 20+ pts vs. IND

LV Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Bryan Edwards 71% // Hunter Renfrow 66.5% // Foster Moreau 63.8% // Darren Waller 54.7% // Zay Jones 52.2% // DeSean Jackson 29.2%
  • Target share: Renfrow 20.4% // Waller 15% // Edwards 9.3% // Jones 9.3% // Moreau 7.3% // Jackson 5.5%
  • Among qualified WRs, Renfrow ranks 24th in target share (per Koalaty Stats)
  • He’s scored double digit DK pts in all but three games this year: 6.6 // 7.5 // 6.2
  • But he’s scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($6,500) just once, 32.7 @ KC in Week 14, and 20+ DK pts just three times
  • Edwards missed Week 16 due to COVID
  • His target counts in his last four games played: 1 // 5 // 3 // 4
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($3,300) twice in 12 games: 13.3 vs. PHI in Week 7 // 17.8 vs. KC in Week 10
  • Target counts for Jones in his last four games: 5 // 7 // 9 // 8
  • He’s yet to score 4x his Week 17 salary ($3,900) this year
  • Jackson saw his most targets (5) all season (no matter the team he played for) in Week 16 with Edwards absent
  • On those targets, he managed just 8.4 DK pts
  • IND ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (35.3)
  • Six opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. IND: Deebo Samuel 25 // Elijah Moore 27.4 // Tyler Lockett 29 // AJ Brown 34.5 // Marquise Brown 36.5 // Cooper Kupp 39.8
  • Waller may start practicing again on Wednesday and there is an outside chance he returns this week (out since Thanksgiving)
  • On the season, his 8.4 targets per game leads the team
  • Moreau’s target counts since replacing Waller: 3 // 6 // 9 // 4
  • DK log: 4.4 // 4.3 // 13.5 // 10.7
  • He’s yet to score a TD with Waller sidelined
  • IND ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (17.3)
  • Opposing TEs that have scored 4x Moreau’s Week 17 salary ($3,800) vs. IND: Mike Gesicki 16.7 // Gronk 22.3 // Hunter Henry 25.7 // Mark Andrews 44.7

Josh Jacobs

  • Among qualified RBs, Jacobs ranks eighth in rush share, seventh in goal line share, 11th in target share, 11th in WOPR, and 10th in RBOPR
  • Averaging 4.5 targets per game (career high)
  • Jacobs’s target counts in the last four weeks: 9 // 6 // 4 // 3
  • Touches in the past four weeks: 22 // 14 // 18 // 28
  • His 14.7 DK ppg are a career low
  • He’s yet to score 4x his Week 17 salary ($6,200) and has only scored 20+ pts once (24 vs. WAS in Week 13)
  • IND ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (20.6)
  • Just three opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. IND: Derrick Henry 22.4 // Chase Edmonds 26.7 // Leonard Fournette 47.1

Carson Wentz

  • Wentz was place on the COVID list on Tuesday
  • Later that day, the COVID protocols were changed so although unvaccinated, he has a chance to play this week in a critical game for IND’s playoff hopes
  • Ranks 22nd in PFF passing grade
  • Career low in attempts (30.7, next lowest was the PHI Super Bowl run in 2017 with 33.8)
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($5,700) three times in 15 games: 24.18 // 26.34 // 26.58
  • He had 30+ attempts in all three
  • He’s thrown 30+ times just once in the past five games, versus pass-funnel TB
  • LV ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.3)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 4x Wentz’s Week 17 salary: Jalen Hurts 24.54 // Teddy Bridgewater 25.26 // Dak Prescott 28.3 // Patrick Mahomes 39.24
  • Bridgewater, Prescott, and Mahomes all threw 45+ times, while Hurts ran for 60 yards to help hit his score

IND Passing Attack

  • Targets per game: Michael Pittman 7.7 // Zach Pascal 4.6 // TY Hilton 3.6 // Jack Doyle 2.7 // Mo Alie-Cox 2.5 // Ashton Dulin 1.4
  • TDs this season: Pittman 5 // Alie-Cox 4 // Doyle 3 // Pascal 3 // Dulin 2 // Hilton 2
  • Among qualified WRs, Pittman ranks 11th in target share, 16th in air yard market share, and 10th in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($5,800) three times in 15 games: 23.3 vs. LAR // 23.5 @ SF // 30.6 vs. TEN
  • All of those games came in the first eight weeks of the season
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ pts since then
  • Pascal has scored double digit DK pts since Week 2
  • Hilton has scored double digits three times in eight games, but has yet to score 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($4,500)
  • LV ranks third in DK ppg allowed to WRs (29.9)
  • Only four opposing WRs have scored 20+ vs. LV (and none in the past four weeks): Cedrick Wilson 20.4 // Diontae Johnson 22.5 // Courtland Sutton 23.4 // Tyreek Hill 27.5
  • Doyle has scored double digit DK pts twice: 13.4 vs. LAR in Week 2 // 20.1 vs. TB in Week 12
  • Alie-Cox has scored double digits twice: 11.5 @ SF in Week 7 // 19.2 @ MIA in Week 4
  • LV ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.2)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dallas Goedert 12 // Evan Engram 12.8 // Logan Thomas 13.8 // Dalton Schultz 15.6 // Mike Gesicki 18.6 // Jared Cook 19 // Travis Kelce 22.9 // Noah Fant 24.7

Jonathan Taylor

  • Among qualified RBs, Taylor ranks fifth in rush share, second in goal line share, 13th in target share, 15th in WOPR, and sixth in RBOPR
  • His 24.9 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s only scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($9,000) twice in 15 games: 37 vs. NYJ in Week 9 // 56.4 @ BUF in Week 11
  • However, he’s scored 30+ pts four times
  • LV ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.3)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Joe Mixon 27.3 // Darrel Williams 32.4 // Austin Ekeler 32.5

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
15) at

Bears (

Over/Under 36.5


Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By PAPY324>>
  • This is a poor game environment.
  • Justin Fields had his two highest pass attempt games the last two weeks.
  • David Montgomery will likely be popular.
  • The Giants are planning on playing two QBs.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-11 Giants come into this game floundering at the end of a sad year. They got blown out again last week, failing to top ten points and playing two QBs. Quoting my Edge writeup last week: 

“The G-men fired their inept offensive coordinator midseason, lost Saquon Barkley for six weeks (he may never be the same), have a pack of glass figurines at WR, and placed Daniel Jones on the IR with a mysterious neck injury that wasn’t severe enough to drive him from the game in which he sustained it, but was bad enough to end his season.”

That all still holds true and adding to that, they’ve now seen Jake Fromm who looks like a player barely sticking around the NFL for a reason. Johnny Manziel retweeted fans asking if he’s available. Ouch.

This week, the G-men get a Bears defense that has been falling apart down the stretch, ranking 26th overall in DVOA. They sport a beatable 21st in DVOA against the run, and a poor 26th in DVOA against the pass. The Bears can be attacked coming and going. Fortunately for the Bears, the Giants are a mess. The G-men are currently floating the idea of playing both Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm at QB. They aren’t entirely sure about the play-calling either, as supposedly it will still mostly fall on Freddie Kitchens but will also have some collaborative elements. The Giants still play quickly (10th in situational neutral pace), but that could change if the coaching staff starts to “hide the QB.” Expect the Giants to keep flying by the seat of their pants and hoping for a miracle.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 5-10 Bears are eliminated from playoff contention and Matt Nagy might be a lame-duck coach. Earlier in the year, it was reported that his job was on the line if the Bears lost on Thanksgiving Day so it’s reasonable to think Nagy has the hottest seat in the NFL. Nagy’s seat is scorching for a reason. His defense grossly underperformed and his offense has looked inept, with Justin Fields showing limited development as an NFL quarterback. Allen Robinson has also been wasted. It’s easy to forget that A-Rob is only 28 years old and has never played with a good QB in a friendly passing scheme. Nagy has woefully used one of the purest talents at WR, and hopefully, Robinson will end up in a good spot before his career is over (imagine A-Rob on the Packers next to Adams?). 

The Giants defense has been thrashed on the ground (29th in DVOA) and through the air (31st in DVOA), presenting nothing but paths of least resistance. The Bears can attack in whatever manner they choose. The Bears stuck to the ground most of the year, but the past two weeks (after being eliminated from playoff contention), Nagy has been more aggressive, letting Fields throw 33/39 times, his two highest pass attempt games of the season. Fields isn’t certain to play, but if he does, expect Nagy to give him an opportunity to look good and possibly save his job for one more year.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a comically low total (37.5) because even though these are two of the worst defenses in the league, they are also two of the worst offenses. Bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and they aren’t made good just because they are playing a poor defense. Neither offense is sure of who is playing QB, and the Giants are spinning the idea of splitting time between two players. Expect both offenses to struggle with the game likely to be determined by a defensive TD.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • Lowest total on slate, 37.5
  • Total has moved down from 42
  • NYG games going over total: 5-9-1
  • CHI had lost 7 in a row up until last week: (vs MIN, @ GB, vs ARZ, @ DET, vs BAL, @ PIT, vs SF, @ TB) 
  • NYG have lost 4 in a row (@ PHI, vs DAL, @ LAC, @ MIA)
  • Pts scored last six: NYG (10, 6, 21, 9, 7, 10) // CHI (25, 9, 30, 22, 16, 13)

Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm:

  • Fromm last week: 6:17:25 yds:1 INT
  • He started but was benched for Mike Glennon
  • Glennon last week: 17:76:1 TD:1 INT
  • CHI allows 19.8 DK pts/g to QBs (7th most)
  • It’s unclear who will start as of Wed evening but both could get snaps

NYG Receiving:

  • Tgts from Fromm last week: Kadarius Toney (5) // Darius Slayton (4) // Kenny Golladay (3) // Engram, Cooper, Booker, Barkley (1 each)
  • Tgts from Glennon last week (mostly garbage time): Golladay (5) // Engram (3) // Toney (4) // Booker (3) // Slayton (1)
  • Over past 2 w/ Fromm & Glennon, no receiver has topped 53 yds in a game 
  • CHI allows the 13th most DK pts to WRs (36.6) & 

NYG Rushing:

  • Saquon Barkley played a season low 26 snaps last week 
  • He went 15:32 yds, 1:-4, 1 tgt
  • Devontae Booker played 41, most since Barkleys return WK 11
  • He went 6:27, 4:19, 4 tgts
  • Barkley DNP Wed and is Q
  • CHI allows 23.0 ppg to RBs (17th most) 

Justin Fields:

  • Fields didn’t play last week but was a LP Wed
  • 2-7 in games he’s started and finished 
  • Rushing: 7.7 rush atts/g // 5.8 yds/att // 35 yds/g
  • NYG allows the 5th least rush yds to QBs (14.1/g) & are T-2nd least atts/g (3.3)
  • Fields passing yds last 3 full games: (285, 224, 291)
  • NYG allows the 16th most DK pts/g to QBs (18.9)

CHI Receiving: 

  • Allen Robinson has missed the last 2
  • Tgts in those games: Montgomery (9, 6) // Mooney (9, 7) // Kmet (5, 9) // Byrd (3, 6) // Herbert (1, 4) // Graham (2, 2)
  • Mooney has seen tgts but hasn’t resulted in DK pts: (5:5, 9 tgts 10.9 pts) // (5:63, 7 tgts, 11.6 DK pts) // (1:19, 5 tgts, 2.9 pts) // (5:27, 7 tgts, 7.7 pts)
  • Cole Kmet has no TDs on the season
  • Jimmy Graham has 3 in the last 5
  • Kmet’s tgts last 5: (5, 9, 5, 7, 11)
  • Graham’s tgts last 5: (2, 2, 3, 1, 3)
  • NYGs allow the 6th most pts to RBs (37.5/g) & 16th most to TEs (12.9)

CHI Rushing:

  • Montgomery when receiving 20+ rush atts: (21:45:1 TD) // (21:90:1 TD) // (23:106:2 TDs) // (20:61)
  • $6.5k is a season high and $400 more than his previous season high
  • His price went up $800 from last week
  • Tgts last 4: (9, 6, 7, 9)
  • NYG allows the 8th most DK pts to RBs (26.4)
  • They allow 125.3 rush yds/g (7th most) & .8 rush TDs /g (T-7th most)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
15.75) at

Bills (

Over/Under 46.0


Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • The Falcons currently have 12 players on the league’s COVID list, most notably wide receiver Tajae Sharpe, tight end Hayden Hurst, and three defensive linemen.
  • The Bills are down to only two players on the COVID list and are getting back wide receivers Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. 
  • After scoring three or more touchdowns four of their first six games, the Falcons have done so only three times over their past nine contests.
  • Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in nine of their 15 contests this year.
  • Brian Daboll’s offense has evolved again this season, which has tripped up some of the field up to this point in the season – I still don’t think the majority of the field understands what is happening here yet.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons hold a top-ten overall pass rate of 60% this season, which “drops” to 57% when playing with a lead and “increases” to 64% when playing from behind. I highlighted the two keywords in that last sentence to drive home the fact that this offense has been extremely static and not very adaptable this year (that is one of the lowest deltas in the league). With that understanding, and combine it with Atlanta’s moderate pace of play (ninth situation-neutral and 18th overall), we’re left with a rather tight range of expected outcomes when it comes to total offensive plays run from scrimmage, game environment, and overall fantasy allure in Falcons games. That is important to understand because it drives home the fact that the Falcons are highly unlikely to push the Bills in this game, which the field is highly unlikely to realize.

The run game has continued to evolve this season, but we know a few things with absolute certainty. The first is that the Falcons do not view Mike Davis as an integral part of this offense. Even when Cordarrelle Patterson missed Week 11, Davis played only 48% of the offensive snaps and ceded work to Qadree Ollison (as in, they played the same number of snaps). Woof alert. The second is that Patterson’s role has changed from “gadget” to “more prototypical running back” over the second half of the season, meaning he is being schemed less work through the air and seeing more work between the tackles. And lastly, this backfield is likely to remain a timeshare regardless of game flow, active members of the backfield, or offensive success. The matchup on the ground yields a laughable 3.825 net-adjusted line yards metric, rendering all of these guys of very little interest.

Tajae Sharpe missed last week’s contest on the COVID list and has yet to return this week (as of Thursday), leading to an increased snap rate for Olamide Zaccheaus and some run for Christian Blake. Keep an eye on his status as the week progresses, as he is likely to jump back into a 75-80% role should he return. The skinny here, though, is that the Falcons have only three primary play-makers, and they have recently hamstrung even that with the change in utilization of Cordarrelle Patterson. That has left only Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts as viable pass-catchers on a weekly basis, and opposing defenses know this as well. They have absolutely keyed in on these two over the previous eight weeks, leaving the two with a combined three games of any fantasy relevance over that time period. The scheme of this offense has been atrocious all season, and it seems just as they are figuring things out, they either change something on their own, an injury shifts things for them, or COVID decimates their personnel. I didn’t mean for this to turn into a “let’s all shit on the Falcons” for a paragraph, but here we are. It has become pretty simple with this team of late: Pitts and Gage can be played for their roles, but the floors are scary-low.

How Buffalo Will Try to win ::

The best way to gain a glimpse into how the Bills are approaching games recently is to look at their personnel alignments over the previous month of play. In Weeks 14 and 16, against the Patriots and Buccaneers, the Bills ran exclusively 11- and 21-personnel sets, while in Weeks 13 and 15, against the Panthers and Patriots (the Nor’easter game), the Bills decreased their 11-personnel rates in order to get two tight ends on the field more (increased 12-personnel rates). Why is this important? Well, game planning and game management have long been stable in Brian Daboll offenses, altering things ever so slightly based on their opponent for that week. In the past that simply meant the same high level of pass rates with varying flows of least resistance, whereas this season we’ve seen that transform into wildly varying pass rates in neutral-to-positive game environments. That’s important to understand, particularly this week in a game against a Falcons team that has struggled to put points up on the scoreboard. I would take an educated guess that we see increased 12-personnel usage rates, increased snaps for Tommy Sweeney, and a slight hit to the snap rates of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. I would also guess this would be another week where the Bills continue their trend of keeping only two non-special teams running backs active on game day, with Matt Breida the most likely to sit once more.

Continuing that discussion, the Bills have kept only two of Devin Singletary, Zach Moss, and Matt Breida active on game days in each of the last three games. In those games, Singletary has played snap rates of 82%, 93%, and 68%, parlaying those snaps into opportunity counts of 11 (seven targets), 23 (one target), and 18 (six targets). The low rush attempt and increased target games came against the Bucs and Patriots, two top-tier run defenses, while the increased rush attempt game came against the run-funnel Panthers in a game the Bills controlled throughout. What that tells me is that we should expect Singletary to carry a borderline elite snap rate role here, but that we should regard him more as a yardage and touchdown back in games that the Bills control handily. As such, pay particular attention to the story your roster is telling should you decide to go here this week. Behind Singletary, expect Moss (or Breida) to fill a typical change of pace role. The matchup on the ground yields an above average 4.435 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Atlanta defense allowing 25.8 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

With all primary pass-catchers once again healthy for the Bills, expect Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders to settle into a 75-85% snap rate, Cole Beasley to settle into a 60-70% snap rate, and Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie to be on hand for any “light” personnel alignments (that is, alignments with no tight end or an empty backfield). Dawson Knox should fill his standard every-down role, while I expect Tommy Sweeney to jump back up to a 25-35% snap rate in “heavy” alignments (more than one tight end on the field). Quarterback Josh Allen has one of the widest ranges of potential pass attempts of any quarterback in the league, regularly failing to surpass 30 pass attempts in positive game script games (five times already this year), and leaping up to 47 or more pass attempts in games the Bills are pushed offensively (also five times this year). That makes building around the game environment paramount when placing any Bills players on rosters this year, and this week is different.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Bills have made their money through score suppression and takeaways on defense this season, having held eight different opponents to 17 points or less so far (said another way, half of the Bills opponents have failed to score more than 17 points this season – remarkable). And since we’ve accurately identified a shift in offensive game planning and play calling dependent on both their opponent and game flow, we can confidently build around various game environments with the Bills because we know what to expect in each situation. This week, against a Falcons team that has failed to consistently score points this season, the likeliest scenario leaves the Bills controlling this game with their defense, thusly creating a situation where we see increased rush rates, decreased pass volume, and a game environment lacking cost-considered upside (as has been the case for half of the Bills games this year). That said, Devin Singletary has failed to eclipse 100 yards rushing in any game this year in what should be primarily a yardage-and-touchdown role in positive game environments. On the other hand, we should expect increased pass volume from the Bills that truly opens up this game environment overall should the Falcons be able to put up points on the scoreboard. Keep those diverging paths in mind when building this week in one of the higher-profile spots on the slate.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Josh Allen:

  • ATL is ranked 29th in def pass DVOA
  • ATL has allowed the 7th most completions, but just the 16th most pass yds
  • 10/15 QBs have topped 225 pass yds vs ATL
  • 5/15 QBs have topped 275 pass yds vs ATL
  • Allen has thrown for 225+ yds in 11/15 games, and all 6 of his games of 275+ yds have gone for 300+ yds
  • ATL has allowed 28 pass TDs to 9 INT
  • ATL has allowed 2+ TDs to 7/15 QBs
  • Allen has 12 games of 2+ TDs, 8 games of 3+ TDs
  • QB rushing vs ATL: Hurts (62) // Jones (39) // Heinicke (43) // Tua (29) // Darnold (66) // Dak (TD) // Lawrence (39) // Cam (47:1)
  • Allen has 8 rush TDs in every previous season of his career (4 so far in 2021)
  • Allen has 10 games in 2021 of 30+ rush yds (5 of 50+)


  • Diggs has 70+ yds in 7/15 games after reaching 70+ yds in 15/18 games in 2020
  • Diggs has five 20+ pt DK scores this year (21.4, 23.9, 33.2, 20.4, 21.5) after 10 in 18 games in 2020
  • Diggs now has 25+ DK pts with BUF in 8 of 34 games, with just one so far in 15 g in 2021
  • Sanders hasn’t reached 15 DK pts since W5 and he caught 2 TDs both times he did
  • Sanders hasn’t reached 30 rec yds since W9
  • WRs with 20+ DK pts vs ATL: Evans (75:2) // McLaurin (123:2) // Lamb (94:2) // Godwin (143) // Robby (84:1) // St. Brown (91:1)
  • Others with 70+ yds vs ATL: Smith (71:1) // Evans (99) // Waddle (83) // Moore (84)
  • ATL has allowed the 7th highest success rate to WRs on the 11th most WR tg

Dawson Knox:

  • Knox has 3/13 games with 8+ tg, 8/13 games with 4+ tg, and 12/13 games with 3+ tg
  • Knox has 9 TDs in 13 games
  • Knox has 40+ yds in 5/13 games
  • ATL has allowed the 11th highest success rate to TEs on the 9th fewest TE tg
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs ATL: Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (40:2) // Gesicki (85:1) // Trautman (47) // Gronk (58:2) // Kittle (93)
  • Brate is the only other TE to score vs ATL


  • Singletary’s touches since W12: 16 // 10 // 11 // 23 // 18
  • Singletary’s yds in those games: 48 // 36 // 89 // 96:1 // 78:1
  • Singletary has just three scores of 15+ DK pts on season (17.1, 16.6, 18.8)
  • RBs with 80+ yds vs ATL: Sanders (113) // Saquon (94:1) // Hubbard (91:1) // AK (104:1) // Pollard (98) // JRob (115) // Fournette (92:1) // Wilson (119:1)
  • ATL has allowed a RB TD in 11/15 games

Matt Ryan:

  • BUF ranks 2nd in def pass DVOA
  • BUF has allowed just 11 pass TDs to 19 INT
  • Only QBs over just 200 yds vs BUF: Tua (205), Heinicke (212), Tanny (216), Mahomes (272), Brady (363)
  • Brady’s 300+ yd game came with the benefit of OT, but also in BUF’s first game without Tre’Davious White
  • Ryan’s pass yds since losing Ridley: 146 // 343 // 117 // 153 // 190 // 297 // 190 // 236 // 215
  • Ryan’s DK scores since losing Ridley: 8.1, 31.5, 2.7, 4.1, 11.2, 12.1, 11.9, 14.4, 13.1
  • ATL is implied for just 15 points

Russell Gage:

  • BUF has allowed the fewest WR DK pts/g (26.3)
  • BUF has allowed just five WR TDs, and 119 WR yds/g
  • Gage since returning: 67:1 // 0 // 64 // 0 // 49 // 62:1 // 130 // 64 // 91:1 // 39
  • Gage has 15+ DK pts four times: 16.7, 18.2, 26, 23.1
  • All four of those defenses allow 10+ DK pts/g more than BUF

Kyle Pitts:

  • BUF has allowed the 6th lowest success rate to TEs
  • TEs to top 40+ yds vs BUF: Gesicki (41, 48) // Thomas (42:1) // Kelce (57:1) // Arnold (60) // Gronk (62)
  • Pitts targets without Ridley: 10, 6, 7, 7, 5, 6, 7, 6, 7, 6
  • Pitts without Ridley: 9:119:1 // 2:13 // 3:62 // 4:60 // 3:29 // 2:26 // 4:48 // 5:61 // 4:77 // 6:102


  • BUF has allowed the 7th most RB rush TDs (13), though 10 of the 13 came from Henry, Taylor, & Harris alone
  • CPatt has 11 TDs on the season, with three multi-TD games
  • BUF ranks 14th in def rush DVOA
  • RBs with 50+ yds vs BUF: Gibson (104:1) // Henry (156:3) // Gaskin (55) // Hyde (73) // Carter (82:1) // Taylor (204:1) // Harris (111:1), Stevenson (78) // Fournette (132:1) // Abdullah (55:1) // Harris (103:3)
  • CPatt has 50+ yds in 11/13 full games
  • CPatt has just 36 yds total in the last two games vs TB & DET
  • Davis actually doubled his rushing output last week (28 yds to 14 yds) on same amount of carries
  • Davis has just one game all season of 15+ DK pts (16.9)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
27.25) at

Bengals (

Over/Under 51.0


Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The playoff picture is crystal clear for the Chiefs: win out and secure the top spot (and only bye) out of the AFC; lose, and open the door for the Titans to nab the top spot (that seems insane considering everything the Titans have been through this season – I digress).
  • Although unlikely, the Bengals are also currently in the running for the top playoff seed out of the AFC, currently two games behind the Chiefs for that honor. They can end the season anywhere from the top seed to out of the playoffs. 
  • The Chiefs return most of the nine players that were on the COVID list last week, including kicker Harrison Butker and tight end Travis Kelce. Nobody of note remains on the list, as of Thursday night.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has yet to practice this week with a shoulder injury, possibly opening the door for Darrel Williams to take over as the lead back for Chiefs. He would be backed up by Derrick Gore should CEH miss (UPDATE: CEH missed his third practice on Friday while Jerick McKinnon returned to practice this week. Expect McKinnon to be fully activated should CEH miss, which now appears likely).

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs surprisingly hold the league’s tenth-highest overall rush rate over the previous four weeks of play (games against the Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos). During their nine-game win streak, Kansas City has held a much more natural 60% pass rate, which “drops” to 58% when playing with a lead over that same time frame. Their situation-neutral pass rate (first and second down with the score within seven points) during that nine-game win streak stands at 61%. I wanted to highlight most of their situational play-calling tendencies during this win streak to emphasize the fact that this team is still one of the most aggressively pass-heavy teams in the league, which should remain the case in as close to a must-win game as possible heading into the postseason. Furthering that notion is the possibility of an absence from starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has yet to practice this week with his shoulder injury. Finally, the Bengals present a pass-funnel matchup, as although their DVOA values are both in the middle of the pack, they have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per carry while allowing the fourth-most yards per pass.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire appears headed for a game-time decision, an absolute best scenario considering he has yet to practice this week. Should he miss, we are likely to see Darrel Williams step into his vacated lead-back role, likely seeing 65-75% of the offensive snaps in the process. He would be backed up by Derrick Gore, who has only seven targets on the season, meaning Williams should be viewed as much more than a yardage and touchdown back here (again, assuming CEH misses). We’re likely to see a relative three-way split in running back opportunities should CEH play. The matchup yields a well below average 4.08 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bengals defense allowing 23.9 fantasy points per game and the second-most targets to opposing backfields. Williams has games of 25, 23, and 19 running back opportunities on the season, so we can feel confident in his workload should CEH miss.

Tyreek Hill played only 42% of the offensive snaps in his first game back from the COVID list in Week 16. He reportedly lost eight pounds with the illness and was struggling through the entire game just to muster his 29 offensive snaps. With another week between his illness, expect Hill to be more involved this week. All of that is extremely notable because it highlights the varying levels of effect this virus has on different individuals, which adds another layer of variance to this already crazy season because we don’t get any information from teams regarding individual health outside of what is reported to the league through protocols. That said, Travis Kelce was activated from the league’s COVID list on Wednesday. While he will get a full week of practice, we have no idea how well he is feeling, nor how his snap rate will look in his first game back from the virus. We’ll discuss more on this below, but it is something we need to keep in mind as we fight through information this week (and something that I haven’t seen discussed much around the industry). Behind the two top players from this pass-catching corps, expect Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson to remain involved to varying degrees, with Pringle the likeliest to see his elevated role continue. The Bengals present the rare case of a defense allowing higher-than-league-average completion rate against and yards per reception against, keeping the upside high for the primary pass-catchers from the Chiefs. Furthermore, the Bengals have faced the second-most running back targets in the league.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals have alternated two-game win streaks and two-game losing streaks over their previous eight games, which has been enough to keep them in the third-seed out of the AFC heading into the final two weeks of the season. That said, the Bengals can mathematically achieve the one-seed in the AFC with wins in their last two, and they can be mathematically eliminated with losses in their last two games. Quite the range of potential outcomes here. As such, this game represents the pinnacle of both Zac Taylor’s coaching career and Joe Burrow’s playing career. During the second half of the season, the Bengals rank in the middle of the pack in overall rush-pass rates, rush-pass rates when playing with a lead, and rush-pass rates when trailing. Basically, this has been an extremely balanced offense all season. Their slow pace of play (30th-ranked situation-neutral and 31st-ranked overall) has led to them averaging only 61.2 offensive plays per game, which is the same as the Packers have run per game this season, for reference. Because Zac Taylor is regarded as one of the most adaptable up-and-coming play-callers in the league, we should expect the Bengals to attack the paths of least resistance against the Chiefs. Those areas would include rushes, passes to running backs and tight ends, and short-to-intermediate passes over the middle of the field to wide receivers. We’ll revisit that idea below.

Joe Mixon has seen 18 or more running back opportunities in every game since Week 8 on a “between lead back and workhorse” weekly snap rate. Expect more of the same here, with clear paths to 30+ running back opportunities should the game environment facilitate increased involvement. Behind Mixon, Samaje Perine should “mix-in” for 15-30% of the offensive snaps, again highly dependent on actual game flow. The matchup on the ground yields a well above average 4.475 net-adjusted line yards metric and presents one of the aforementioned paths of least resistance against the Chiefs. Furthermore, the Chiefs have faced the fifth-most running back targets on the season, raising both the expected floor and expected ceiling for Mixon.

The pass game has been dominated by rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and second-year wide receiver Tee Higgins, with Tyler Boyd approaching near every-down status as well. The Bengals run 11-personnel at a 76% clip on the season, which has jumped to 82% since Week 8. CJ Uzomah and Drew Sample split snaps at a 65/45 clip last week after three straight weeks of 80% or more from Uzomah. Expect personnel alignments to be driven by game flow in this one, with the team likely to run more “heavy” sets in neutral-to-positive game scripts. As mentioned above, another path of least resistance against the Chiefs is through the short-to-intermediate middle of the field, slightly raising the expectation for Boyd and Higgins, the two players that run the most of those routes.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

You’d be hard-pressed to find a “second-to-last” NFL game that carried more playoff implications than this one, giving each team all the motivation they needed. Furthering that discussion is the wide range of potential outcomes as far as playoff seeding is concerned for each of these teams, in what has become an extremely crowded AFC playoff picture. The Chiefs can end up anywhere from the top seed to the six seed, while the Bengals can end up anywhere from the top seed to out of the playoffs entirely. Considering how each of these teams is built, how each of them responds to varying game environments, and how each offense and defense has performed up to this point in the season, the flow, pace, and environments of this game have the widest range of outcomes on the week. There really is no point in anchoring down on what the likeliest scenario is. That said, each potential game flow carries varying players that should be regarded as optimal, and because each offense is highly concentrated, players from this game can be used in rosters for all potential game flows. Again, something to keep in mind when narrowing down the top game environments on the slate (spoiler alert, this game is one of the top two or three game environments).  



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • 2nd highest total behind ARZ/DAL (51)
  • Total has moved up 1.5 pts
  • KC is favored by 5
  • CIN has won the last 4 of 5 against KC but got smoked in their last matchup (CIN 10 KC 45 in 2018)
  • KC has won 8 in a row & holds the best record in the AFC
  • CIN holds the lead in the AFC north & is currently the 3 seed
  • Pts allowed in those 8: (10, 28, 9, 9, 9, 14, 7, 17)
  • CIN scored on 7 straight possessions last week (streak was broke by a missed FG in the 4th)
  • KC is 4th in ppg (28.1) & 1st over their last 3 (39.3)
  • CIN is 7th in ppg & 10th in over their last 3 (26.3)

Patrick Mahomes:

  • Mahomes ($7.8k) is the 2nd most expensive QB this week on DK
  • He was $8k or higher the first 7 games but has only been above $8k once in the last 8
  • Mahomes has scored 30+ DK points 4 times & 25+ in two others
  • CIN allowed 3rd stringer Josh Johnson to go 28:40:304:2 TDs vs them last week
  • Other notable QB scores vs CIN: Herbert (29.3) // Mike White (31.1) // Rodgers (23.8) // Jackson (23.1) // Cousins (25.0) // Garoppolo (20.14)
  • CIN allows the 12th most DK pts to QBs (19.1) & 3rd most pass atts/g (37.8)

KC Receiving:

  • Travis Kelce missed last week w/ COVID but has been removed from the list
  • Tyreek Hill saw only 2 tgts in Kelce’s absence
  • Byron Pringle saw 7 last week: 6:75:2 TDs, 25.5 DK pts
  • His price ($4.1k) jumped up $800 & is a season high (previous high was $3.3k)
  • WR snaps last 3: Pringle (55/69, 46/71, 40/66) // Mecole Hardman (30, 31, 23) // Demarcus Robinson (46, 49, 30)
  • Kelce has 8 or more tgts in 10 of 14 games & 6 games with 10+
  • Mark Andrews ($7.4k) is now more expensive than Kelce ($7.3k) 
  • KC is 2nd in pass yds/g (285.1) // CIN allows the 4th most (252.8)
  • KC is also 2nd in pass yds/g over the last 3 (301.3)(CIN is first) 
  • CIN allows 35.4 DK pts/g to WRs (14th least) & 7th most to TEs (15.6)

KC Rushing:

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire missed Wed & Thurs practices, he’s questionable
  • CEH has 2 games w/ 100+ rush yds, back in WKs 3 & 4
  • He has yet to see 20+ atts this season
  • RB snaps last 4: CEH (21, 50, 23, 29) // Darrel Williams (25, 19, 23, 25) // Derrick Gore (19, 0, 20, 8)
  • DK pts games CEH missed: Williams (23.9, 8.0, 17.0, 10.7, 32.4) // Gore (0.0, 1.7, 10.8, 2.9, 1.9)
  • Rush atts w/o CEH: Williams (21, 5, 13, 19, 11) // Gore (0, 0, 11, 3, 6)
  • CIN allows 23.9 pts/g to RBs (14th most)

Joe Burrow:

  • Burrow passed for 525 yds vs BAL last week
  • This is the most by a QB this season, most ever by a Bengal, & 4th most in NFL history
  • Burrow’s price ($6.9k) is $200 less than his season high of $7.1 in WK 8 vs NYJ
  • He has 6 games scoring in the 20’s, 1 in the 30’s, & scored 41.1 last week
  • 5 times he’s thrown for 300+ & he has 5 games with at least 3 TDs
  • KC allows the 6th most DK pts to QBs (20.2)

CIN Receiving:

  • Boyd, Mixon, & Higgins each caught 50+ yd passes last week 
  • Ja’Marr Chase is tied w/ AJ Green for most 100+ yd rec games by a rookie (4)
  • CIN is 8th in pass yds/g (259.0) // KC allows the 8th most (245.7)
  • CIN is first in pass yds/g over the last 3 (315.0) 
  • Boyd rec yds:TDs last 5: (194:2, 23:0, 114:0, 138:1, 114:1) 
  • Tgts over the last 4: Chase: (10, 4, 8, 8) // Higgins (13, 3, 7, 14) // Boyd (5, 6, 6, 7)
  • KC allows 34.6 DK pts/g to WRs (13th least)

CIN Rushing:

  • It’s been 4 games since Mixon had 100+ rush yds but he had 135 scrimmage yds last week (rush 18:65:1 TD, rec 6:70 1 TD)
  • Mixon has 25+ DK pts in 7 games (31.5, 36.3, 27.3, 28.0, 25.1, 26.3, 28.0)
  • He’s T-3rd in total TDs w/ 16 (13 rush, 3 rec) (only Ekeler & Taylor have more)
  • $7.5k is the 4th most expensive RB
  • No other CIN RB has seen more than 5 atts since WK 7
  • Mixon avgs 4.1 yds/att // KC allows 4.7 yds/att (T-3rd most)  
  • KC allows 24.5 DK pts/g to RBs (12th most)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
25.25) at


Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • The Eagles currently have five players on the COVID list, most notably left guard Landon Dickerson and defensive end Derek Barnett.
  • Washington are down to just one player (depth cornerback Darryl Roberts) on the league’s COVID list after being one of the most affected teams over the previous two weeks.
  • Washington has stated that they intend to give Kyle Allen some run at quarterback in an attempt to evaluate future plans at the position.
  • Philadelphia currently sit in the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC and can ensure a playoff berth by winning their final two games.
  • Washington has not been mathematically eliminated yet but would need to win out and receive a ton of help to make the playoffs.

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

Philadelphia leads the league in rush rate over the second half of the season by a massive margin. Their rush rate since Week 8 stands at a whopping 60%, a full 5% more than the Colts, the next closest team. They have gone 6-2 over that same time, with their only losses coming by six points against the Giants and by three points against the Chargers. Furthermore, the Eagles have scored 24 or more points in all but one of those games. The problem for us is that the heavy rushing load has been split by no fewer than four players during that stretch – quarterback Jalen Hurts and running backs Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and one of Boston Scott or Kenneth Gainwell. Philadelphia ranks in the top half of the league in points allowed per game, play at a top five situation-neutral pace of play, and are a net-neutral in turnover differential this season.

As alluded to above, the emphasis of this offense is on the rush, and it’s been that way since this team started 2-5. Their offensive line ranks second in adjusted line yards, first in stuffed rate, fourth in second level yards generated, and seventh in open field yards generated. The matchup yields a well above average 4.565 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Washington defense allowing a moderate 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, primarily due to a below average 3.95 yards allowed per carry to opposing backs. Even with the elevated pace of play, the Eagles run 62.9 plays per game this season, which ranks 16th in the league. That gives us a solid baseline expectation of 32-36 total rush attempts here, with room for more should game flow allow. Of those 32-36 rush attempts, expect eight to 12 from Hurts, 12-15 from Sanders (UPDATE: Sanders has been ruled out for Week 17 with a broken hand suffered in Week 16, meaning Jordan Howard should step into his vacated lead role, backed up by some combination of Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. It is likeliest we see Howard and Scott split early down work at a 60-40 clip, with Gainwell the most likely to be utilized in the obvious passing down role. It is also possible we see Hurts utilized more heavily out of the backfield.), eight to 10 for Howard, and a possibility for a handful of touches for Boston Scott or Kenneth Gainwell. One final consideration is the fact that Washington has ceded the third-most quarterback rushing yards and most quarterback rushing scores this season.

You have to go all the way back to Week 7 to find a game where Jalen Hurts attempted more than just 31 pass attempts, and there were only two games over that stretch where he attempted more than 26 pass attempts. Of the 164 pass attempts in the seven games since Week 8 (Hurts missed Week 13), Devonta Smith has been targeted at a 22.6% rate and Dallas Goedert has been targeted at a 23.8% rate, leaving a modest 10.9 targets per game to be split between Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, backup tight ends Jack Stoll and Tyree Jackson, and the running backs. In my best Yoda voice, a condensed offense this is not.

How Washington Will Try to win ::

Although not mathematically eliminated from the postseason just yet, Washington has apparently conceded that they will not be representing the NFC with three teams from the NFC East in the playoffs (Dallas has clinched a playoff spot while Philadelphia currently sits in the seventh spot). As such, it isn’t entirely apparent that Washington wants to try to win this game, evidenced by the reports out of Washington stating that the team is likely to utilize multiple quarterbacks this week as they look towards the future. Expect an inefficient and conservative Kyle Allen to see snaps in direct backup of an inefficient and conservative Taylor Heinicke. A whole lot of meh here. The one saving grace for this offense is the fact that the same conservative nature of the offense overall leads to the areas of the field that the Eagles “allow” production to (short-to-intermediate). That said, Washington ranks just 18th in drive success rate on offense while the Eagles rank 19th, so that isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. Finally, Washington ranks seventh in the league in overall rush rates during the second half of the season and Philadelphia ranks 12th in DVOA against the run while 21st against the pass (primarily short-area work allowed).

Antonio Gibson played just 37% of the offensive snaps last week after aggravating his turf toe injury, and that is in addition to his hip and shin ailments that he has been playing through for most of the season. That introduces a good deal of uncertainty surrounding the likely snap and opportunity split of this backfield. With JD McKissic on IR, we should expect Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams to soak up any backfield work vacated by Gibson, who was downgraded from a limited participant on Wednesday to a “DNP” on Thursday. The matchup yields a modest 4.165 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Eagles defense allowing 25.0 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Taylor Heinicke averages 7.8 intended air yards per pass attempt this season, while Kyle Allen is all the way down at 7.1, indicating how conservative this offense has been forced to be this year behind highly inefficient quarterback play. Terry McLaurin is now the only pass-catcher that plays in a near every-down role, as Ricky Seals-Jones and Jonathan Bates have split snaps over the previous three weeks, Adam Humphries has an established role as the slot wide receiver but plays 55-65% of the offensive snaps on a weekly basis, and the “WR2” role has been a mishmash of both production and opportunity. All of DeAndre Carter, Dyami Brown, Cam Sims, Max Milne, and Curtis Samuel have rotated through that final wide receiver spot, but none of them have taken a strong portion of the opportunity. It’s basically “McLaurin or bust” if targeting a member of this pass-catching corps. The matchup against the Eagles should be considered net-neutral, as they allow an above-average catch rate but the lowest yards per reception in the league. Expect McLaurin to see a good bit of lockdown corner Darius Slay, who has seen a career resurgence this season (low 47.3% completion rate allowed in coverage, with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed). 

Likeliest Game flow ::

It is likeliest we see the Eagles succeed on the offensive side of the ball, in one way or another (have scored 24 or more points in all but one game since Week 8, and 27 or more points in all but two games since Week 8), but that production is highly likely to be spread out enough to render all players from the Eagles borderline useless to us from a fantasy perspective. We’ll cover more of this below, but MME shots can be taken on Jalen Hurts, Jordan Howard, Devonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert, but the remainder of this offense should largely be left alone. Because we can be fairly certain that the Eagles will achieve some level of success offensively, we can also be fairly certain that Washington will be forced into increased pass rates as the game plays out. The problem here is that the Eagles allow the lowest yards per completion in the league at just 9.0 while allowing a greater-than-league-average completion rate of 68.57% (28th in the league), meaning Washington will likely be forced to march the field through sustained drives (18th-ranked drive success rate) and actually score when they enter the red zone (54.55% red zone touchdown rate – 25th in the league), two areas they have largely struggled with this season. On top of that, we’re expecting multiple quarterbacks to be used from Washington this week as they look towards the future. This all comes together to form a likeliest game flow and game environment that the Eagles control throughout, bringing their elevated rush rates to the forefront of consideration when breaking down this game. In turn, this game has very little chance of opening up into something required to ship GPPs this week.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Taylor Heinicke:

  • PHI has allowed just four QBs to throw for 260+ yds (Mahomes, Brady, Carr, Herbert)
  • Heinicke has just four games of 260+ pass yds, and none since W8
  • PHI has 11 INT on year
  • Heinicke has thrown 14 INT
  • Heinicke is expected to cede reps to Kyle Allen again


  • WAS WR tg: McLaurin (117) // Humphries (58) // Carter (42)
  • Humphries only has two games of 10+ DK pts and his highest was just 11.4
  • Those were the only two games he topped just 40 yds
  • Carter has just three games of 50+ rec yds (11.3, 14.1, 15 DK pts) and not since W10
  • Cam Sims 3:69:1 in W14 is his only game of 20+ rec yds
  • McLaurin with 10+ tg: 107:1 // 123:2 // 46 // 122:1
  • McLaurin with sub-10 tg: 62 // 62 // 28 // 23 // 59 // 103:1 // 51 // 22 // 0 // 51 // 40
  • McLaurin has 11 games of under 12 DK pts (10.2, 10.2, 8.6, 6.8, 6.5, 11.9, 9.1, 5.2, 0, 7.1, 7)
  • McLaurin has 4 games of 24+ DK pts (30.7, 33.3, 28.2, 24.3)
  • PHI has allowed the 2nd fewest WR DK pts/g (27.7) and WR rec yds/g (122.2)
  • WRs with 20+ DK pts vs PHI: Hill (186:3) // Brown (93:1) // Allen (104) // Moore (77:1)
  • McLaurin vs 2019 PHI: 5:125:1 // 5:130:1
  • McLaurin vs 2020 PHI: 5:61 // 7:40:1
  • McLaurin vs 2021 PHI: 2:51

Antonio Gibson:

  • Gibson rushing since WAS’s bye: 24:64:2 // 19:95 // 27:111 // 23:88 // 10:36 // 15:26:1 // 6:29
  • Gibson has four 20-pt DK scores, but just one above 22 DK pts (26.6)
  • Gibson had four 20-pt DK scores in 2020, but just one above 23 DK pts (39.6)
  • RBs with 15+ touches vs PHI (total yds:TDs): Davis (72) // Mitchell (53) // Zeke (116:2) // CEH (114:1) // Chuba (134) // Fournette (127:2) // Drake (79:1) // Swift (51) // Ekeler (82) // Ingram (113) // Saquon (53) // Coleman (77) // Gibson (65:1) // Saquon (28)
  • 16 RBs have 40+ rush yds vs PHI, 8 RBs have 60+ rush yds
  • Gibson career rushing vs PHI: 9:36 // 19:75 // 15:26:1

Jalen Hurts:

  • WAS has allowed 8 QBs to throw for 270+ yds, including Hurts in W15
  • Hurts 296 pass yds vs WAS was his first game of 200+ since W7
  • WAS has allowed multiple TDs to 10 QBs
  • Hurts has multiple TDs in 10/14 games
  • QB rushing vs WAS: Jones (95:1) // Allen (9:1) // Winston (26) // Mahomes (31) // Cam (46:1) // Carr (24) // Hurts (38:2) // Dak (21)
  • Hurts has the 21st most rush yds/g of ALL players in 2021 (52.9)
  • Hurts has rushed for 4 TDs in 1.5 career games vs WAS

Devonta Smith:

  • WAS has allowed the 3rd most WR DK pts/g
  • WAS has allowed the 2nd most WR rec/g & 4th most WR rec yds/g on just the 9th most WR targets
  • WAS has allowed the highest success rate to WRs
  • WAS has allowed 80+ yds to 11 WRs
  • WAS has allowed 60+ yds to 22 WRs
  • Smith has 15+ DK pts in 6 games: 19.1 // 22.2 // 15.7 // 25.6 // 22.6 // 19.0
  • Smith has sub-7 DK pts in 7 of the other 9 games: 3.6 // 5.8 // 5.1 // 2.5 // 4.2 // 3.5 // 7
  • Smith targets through Week 7: 8 // 7 // 6 // 10 // 9
  • Smith targets since Week 7: 3 // 6 // 6 // 6 // 4 // 4 // 5 // 7

Dallas Goedert:

  • WAS has allowed 40+ yds to 8 TEs, and 30+ yds to 13 TEs
  • WAS has allowed the 2nd highest success rate to TEs
  • Targets without Ertz: 5 // 7 // 6 // 2 // 8 // 3 // 6 // 9 // 4
  • Yards without Ertz: 70 // 72 // 43 // 28 // 62 // 0 // 102:2 // 135 // 28
  • Goedert’s two games vs Rivera’s WAS def: 8:101:1 // 7:135
  • Goedert & Smith are tied for the lead in targets since trading Ertz with 50 each (5.6/g)


  • Sanders is out and Howard is questionable
  • WAS has allowed just 8 RBs to top 70+ total yds, and just 4 of 60+ rush yds
  • WAS has allowed the 7th fewest RB rush yds
  • WAS has allowed the most RB rec TDs (9)
  • Scott has just 7 rec for 39 yds on season
  • Gainwell has five games of 30+ rec yds
  • PHI RBs vs WAS in W15: Sanders (18:131, 2:15) // Howard (15:69)
  • WAS was down significant amount of players on defense in that first matchup

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
27) at

Ravens (

Over/Under 47.0


Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

The Ravens are playing for their playoff lives. They currently sit in eighth place in the AFC having lost the tie-breaker to the Dolphins based on conference win percentage. Their clearest path to the postseason is by winning out and the Dolphins losing.The Rams currently occupy the three-seed in the NFC. They would need to win out and get losses from the Packers and Cowboys in order to nab the one-seed, and could fall as far as the five-seed over the final . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 4:05pm Eastern

Texans (
15.25) at

49ers (

Over/Under 44.0


Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Houston is on the road after a huge upset over the Chargers while shorthanded.
  • San Francisco can’t win their division, but can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a little bit of help.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo is unlikely to play in this game, setting the stage for Trey Lance to come up big in his first home start.
  • San Francisco has a huge edge in the running game and will likely lean heavily into that strength to protect Lance from having to do too much.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans came up with one of the bigger upsets of the year in Week 16. Despite having 20 players on the COVID list and being nearly double-digit home underdogs to the Chargers, Houston outplayed Los Angeles in almost every facet of the game and walked away with a convincing victory. Helping their cause was the fact that the Chargers were also hit hard by COVID absences and struggled on the road with missing many of their team’s leaders.

This week Houston heads out west to face a 49ers team that has scored over 30 points in each of their last three home games. San Francisco also has a much more stout defense that is terrific against the run and getting healthier in their pass defense. The 49ers are also in a “must-win” type of situation, and there is almost no chance the Texans can bank on an “off game” from San Francisco here, as they will be prepared and amped up to play. There is no secret sauce for Houston to try here, nor anything extraordinary in how they play that we should expect. They are a team that lacks high-end talent and plays at a pace that is close to the league average while also having near the league average run/pass ratio. I do think there is a decent chance the Texans come out aggressive early in this game. If they are able to score some points early, it would relieve pressure on their own offense and allow them to milk the clock and run the ball more freely while also forcing Trey Lance to make more plays and be more than a game manager.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Houston has a bottom-5 rush defense, and San Francisco has a top-5 rush offense. San Francisco is starting a rookie QB who ran the ball 16 times in his only previous start, which was on the road against a much more talented team. There really isn’t a ton of minutia that we need to worry ourselves about for this section in this game. San Francisco is going to run the ball and run it a lot in this game. Eli Mitchell, who has been the 49ers best running back this season, has returned to practice and seems likely to play. Between Mitchell, Lance, Jeff Wilson, and Deebo Samuel, we can expect a lot of creative formations and misdirections that will all lead to a similar place – 49ers players making plays against an overmatched and confused defense. Consider the fact that San Francisco is PFF’s #1 graded run-blocking team, and Houston is the 31st graded defense in tackling. Putting everything above together, the 49ers will confuse and stretch this defense horizontally with a lot of weapons they need to worry about. Then, the 49ers will use their elite scheme and run blocking to get their ball carriers to the second level of the defense. At that point, the elite runners and tackle breakers of the 49ers will encounter one of the worst tackling units in the league. Trey Lance has not looked good as a passer this season, but the 49ers won’t ask him to do that much to start this game and are unlikely to need to ask him to as the game goes on.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Texans are likely to struggle to move the ball, and the 49ers are likely to impose their will and bully the Texans with their multifaceted running game. We should expect the 49ers to come out focused and energized, taking control of this game early and pulling away to a comfortable margin by halftime or shortly thereafter. The greatest threat to this game scenario would be mistakes by Lance, but as discussed previously, the 49ers should be able to simplify things and take a lot off of his plate in this set-up. San Francisco is unlikely to have any one player with a crazy amount of volume, but as a whole, they should run ragged over this Texans defense with three or four players having solid outings on the ground. Both teams play at a bottom-10 situation-neutral pace, and with the 49ers likely to run the ball at a very high rate and the Texans likely to struggle to move the ball (meaning short drives and more 49ers possessions), it is likely that this game moves very quickly and has lower play volume than most games.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • T-6th lowest total on 14 game slate (44)
  • SF favored by 12.5 (opened 13.5)
  • HOU has won 2 straight scoring 71 pts vs LAC & JAX
  • SF allows 22.3 pts/g (15th least)
  • SF is currently in the 6th playoff spot 
  • They don’t have a realistic shot at moving up but could still miss the playoffs

Davis Mills:

  • Mills DK pts in starts: (18.1, 15.6, 21.0, 24.4, 4.4, 8.2, 27.7, -.3, 10.7)
  • He has 5 TDs to only 1 INT in the last 3 facing LAC, JAX, & SEA
  • His price has risen from $5k in his first start to $5.5k this week (season high)
  • Mills has 5 games of 30+ pass atts 
  • His season high (49) came in a 13-33 loss to SEA 3 weeks ago
  • SF allows 19.1 DK pts/g to QBs (T-12th most)

HOU Receivers:

  • Brandin Cooks has 100+ yds & 10+ tgts in B2B games
  • That makes 3 straight games a HOU WR has seen 10+ (Cooks 10, Cooks 11, Nico Collins 10)
  • Cooks has 10+ tgts in 6 games this season
  • $6k is his highest price in 5 weeks
  • Collins ($4k) price is a season high & $400 more than his previous season high
  • SF allows to 37.5 DK pts/g to WRs (T-6th most)

Houston RBs:

  • David Johnson is on the COVID list & will likely miss
  • Last week he missed due to injury
  • Burkhead last WK w/ no Johnson: (22:149:2 TDs, 31.9 DK pts)
  • This was the first a HOU RB saw 20 atts
  • Freeman last WK: (12:34)
  • His price ($5k) went up $500 from last week 
  • SF allows 22.6 DK pts/g to RBs(13th least)

Trey Lance:

  • Lance in his only start: (15:29:192: 1 INT, 16:89, 15.6 DK pts)
  • He scored 20.4 pts in the 2nd half WK 4 vs SEA: (9:18:157:2 TDs, 7:41)
  • Lance was $5.7k in his first start, $4.8k this week
  • HOU pts allowed to cheap QBs: (Lawrence 10.5) // (Wentz-11.12) // (Wilson 11.1) // (Siemian 19.9) // (Brissett 11.5) // (Wentz 17.02) // (Jones 12.5) // (Darnold 28.3) // (Mayfield 18.52) // (Lawrence 25.1) 
  • HOU allows 19.0 DK pts to QBs (T-12 most)

SF Receivers: 

  • Tgts last 3: Deebo (11, 5, 1) // Kittle (3, 6, 15) // Aiyuk (5, 2, 10) // Jennings (5, 6, 5)
  • Last week was Deebo’s first game with 10 or more tgts in 10 games
  • His price ($7.1k) has came down $300 from last week
  • He’s the 3rd highest price TE (Andrews, Kelce) 
  • SF ranks 1st in yds/comp (12.1) // HOU D ranks 29th (11.1)
  • HOU allows to 35.8 DK pts/g to WRs (16th least) & 14.6 pts to TEs (9th most)


  • Eli Mitchell (Q) was a limited participant in practice Wed & Thurs
  • He’s missed the past 3 weeks
  • Atts when active: (19, 17, 9, 18, 18, 8, 27, 27, 22)
  • His price ($6k) matches a season high last time he played
  • Jeff Wilson w/o Mitchell: (19:50) // (13:56) // (21:110:1 TD) // (14:45:1 TD)
  • HOU allows 28.0 DK pts/g to RBs (4th most)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 4:05pm Eastern

Broncos (
18.75) at

Chargers (

Over/Under 45.0


Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass


Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86>>
  • This is a divisional rematch from a game a few weeks ago when the Broncos beat the Chargers 28-13 in Denver. The Broncos controlled that game with their running game and defense, making the Chargers one-dimensional and making things difficult for them on both sides of the ball.
  • Both teams are currently on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture, and whichever team loses this game is likely done.
  • Denver needs to win their last two games and get A LOT of help to make the playoffs.
  • If Los Angeles wins their last two games, they will still need a little help somewhere but have a very strong chance that they would get in the playoffs with a 10-7 record.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos want to hide Drew Lock. In his only start last week against a mediocre Raiders defense, the Broncos ran only 40 offensive plays and managed 158 total yards. They struggled to move the ball at all and managed only 18 rushing yards with the Raiders selling out to stop the run. Vic Fangio had no interest in cutting Drew Lock loose to make them pay for this strategy, so the Broncos just engaged in a punting battle that they ended up losing. The Raiders complete inability to separate themselves offensively allowed Denver to stick with that strategy, as the Broncos just tried to survive an ugly game rather than going out and winning it.

The Broncos are a slow-paced team (27th in the league in situation-neutral pace of play) who want to lean on their running game. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the league and that should play right into Denver’s hands. Los Angeles couldn’t even stop the Texans from having success running the ball so it is unlikely they will be able to stop the Broncos backfield. If Denver can get 35-40 rushing attempts from their backs with any level of efficiency, while keeping Drew Lock from throwing the ball over 25 times, Vic Fangio will be a very happy man.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

On paper, the Broncos are more easily attacked on the ground than through the air. In theory, this would be a game where we could possibly expect to see Los Angeles run the ball more than usual. In reality, this is a team coming off of an embarrassing loss and whose season is on the line. In spots like this, teams usually want to lean into their own strengths and know that if they go down, they will do it on their own terms. We saw something similar last week with the Bills, as they put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands, and had a pass-heavy attack against the Patriots despite New England’s top-three pass defense. 

Los Angeles passes at the fifth-highest rate in the league and plays at a top-10 situation-neutral pace. Despite the tough matchup and last week’s poor outing, we should expect the Chargers to “be who they are” and put the ball in Justin Herbert’s hands here. The returns of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and possibly Jalen Guyton mean this offense should operate at full strength with their season on the line. Brandon Staley is one of the sharper young coaches in the game and it is highly unlikely that he does anything other than riding his franchise QB as far as he will take him.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

While this game has a respectable total of 45.5, we always want to keep in mind the range of outcomes for a given game rather than just the raw number “Vegas” gives us. The Broncos have played 15 games this season and have only been a part of one game that combined for over 50 points (Week 6 vs. Las Vegas). There has only been one other game that went over the total for this week’s game, and nine times this season a Denver game has had 40 or less points scored. This is an important context to consider because the schemes and personnel of these teams are set up for Denver to control the game flow, even if they may not end up winning. Denver’s defense is well equipped to slow down the high volume, usually explosive Chargers passing offense. On the other side of the ball, Denver wants to control the game on the ground and the Chargers couldn’t even get stops against the league-worst run defense of the Texans (with backup offensive linemen, no less).

It wouldn’t be shocking for this game to approach (or even slightly surpass) the implied team and game totals, but Denver will be able to run the ball with success and string together long drives while also making things difficult for Los Angeles to move the ball quickly down the field, and making it difficult for them to score touchdowns (Denver has the fourth-best defense at preventing TD’s in the red zone). This makes it likely that if this game meets expectations, it will be a hard-earned journey that gets there at the end, while also making it likely that this game could significantly disappoint and finish with something like a 20-13 final score. There appears to be a much greater downside to the game flow than there is upside.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>


  • DEN won their 1st matchup 28-13
  • LAC is 8-7 & would be the first team out of the playoffs
  • They need MIA to lose to TEN to help sget in
  • DEN is 7-8 & more then likely out of the playoffs
  • Total is the 4th highest (46), moving up 1 pt
  • LAC is favored by 3
  • DEN has lost 3 of 4 facing LV, CIN, DET, & KC
  • LAC is 2-2 in their last 4 losing to the Texans 29-41 last week

Drew Lock:

  • Last week vs LV: 15:22:153:0 TDs, 7.1 DK pts in low scoring loss to LV
  • His price stayed the same this week ($5.1k)
  • Lock has shown a ceiling in the past w/ games of 27.9, 20.8, 33.2, 26.6, 27.3 over his career
  • He’s started 3 games against LAC: (16.1, 20.8, & 13.9 DK pts)
  • DEN QBs haven’t thrown for 300+ since WK 6 (Bridgewater 334)
  • LAC allows 18.8 DK pts to QBs (17th most)

DEN Receiving:

  • Tim Patrick has been added to the COVID list & is likely out
  • DEN hasn’t had a 100 yd WR since WK 5 (Courtland Sutton, 120 yds)
  • Sutton is the only one to break 100 rec yds, he’s done so twice
  • DEN ranks 21st in pass atts/g (32.5) // LAC allows the 12th least (32.9)
  • Jerry Jeudy has yet to see 10+ tgts in a game, have 80+ rec yds, or score
  • His price ($5.1k) dropped $500 having to face a tougher opponent (faced DET last week)
  • Jeudys season highs: 9 tgts, 6 rec, 77 rec yds
  • LAC allows 31.0 DK pts/g to WRs (5th least)

DEN Rushing:

  • DEN RBs combined for 14 carries for 8 yds and 1 TD last week
  • They’re getting there starting center (Lloyd Cushenberry) back from the COVID list
  • WK 15 Javonte Williams out-snapped Gordon 44-31
  • Last week it was 23 Gordon/22 Williams
  • Both are a season high price: Williams $6.4k // Gordon $6.2k
  • Tgts last 3: Williams (2, 4, 2) // Gordon (1, 1, 0)
  • LAC allows 27.9 DK pts/g to RBs (5th most)

Justin Herbert:

  • DEN allows just 1.2 pass TDs/g (3rd fewest) // LAC avgs 2.2/g (5th most)
  • LAC ranks 5th in yds/comp (10.9) // DEN allows the 8th least (10.8)
  • Herbert has scored 20+ in all but 4 games (2 of these came way back in WKs 1 & 2)
  • He’s his 30+ 3 times & 40+ in another
  • It’s been 6 games since he scored 30+
  • Since his 38.3 DK pts game in WK 11, his price has rose from $6.7k to $7.2k
  • This week it went down to $6.8k
  • He’s the 8th highest priced QB (Allen, Mahomes, Brady, Murray, Stafford, Jackson, Burrow are priced more)
  • DEN allows 16.0 DK pts/g to QBs (3rd least)

LAC Receiving:

  • Jalen Guyton has been activated off the COVID list
  • He scored one TD in each of his previous 3 on only 9 total tgts
  • Mike Williams tgts last 4: (9, 6, 7, 8)
  • He didn’t reach 20 DK pts in any of those
  • Keenan Allen tgts last 4: (6, 10, DNP, 8)
  • He’s seen 10+ tgts in 9 games // Williams has seen 10+ in 3 games (but hasn’t reached that in 9 straight games)
  • LAC avgs 38.6 pass atts/g (5th most)  // DEN allows 32.5 (T-6th least)
  • DEN allows 32.5 DK pts/g to WRs (8th least)

LAC Rushing:

  • Austin Ekeler ($8.2k) is back from the COVID list after missing last week
  • He’s the 2nd highest priced RB behind Jonathon Taylor ($9k)
  • He’s scored in 6 straight games
  • With that, it’s been 5 games since he at least 3xed his salary (WK 11 explosion 4 TDs, 41.5 DK pts)
  • It’s been 6 games since Ekeler received at least 20 opportunities (rec + rush atts)
  • DEN allows 21.5 DK pts/g to RBs (8th least)

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Panthers (
15.25) at

Saints (

Over/Under 37.0


Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

A lot has changed for both teams since the Panthers stomped the Saints in Week 2.The Panthers are a lame duck team with nothing left to play for, who have turned back to Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback.The Saints are getting a lot of players back from the COVID list and still have a good chance to make the playoffs if they can win their last two games (both very winnable) and get a little bit of help.Both teams should have relatively predictable game plans, with the Saints much more . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Cards (
23.25) at

Cowboys (

Over/Under 52.5


Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

This game has a lot of obstacles to it being the shootout everyone has hoped it would be since before the season began. Arizona is struggling mightily down the stretch after opening the year as the hottest team in the league.Dallas can get the #1 seed in the NFC by winning their last two games and having the Packers lose one game.Arizona has secured a playoff berth, but could end up as high as the #2 seed if they win their last two games or as low as the #6 seed . . .

Unlock OWS

Tools || Training || Research || Strategy || Slate Prep


Click To Enter

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Lions (
16) at

Hawks (

Over/Under 41.0


Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>
  • Both teams are dead in the water, giving this game some unpredictability.
  • Seattle is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Nick Foles-led Bears in Week 16.
  • Detroit has been playing very well recently compared to their “doormat” reputation. 
  • Both teams are conservative by nature and have been involved in a lot of low-scoring games recently.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Despite a near league-worst record, the Lions have been playing well and been very competitive for the last two months. In November and December, the Lions went 2-4-1 with three of the four losses coming by four or fewer points (their only big loss was a 38-10 stomping in Denver). This is a very winnable game for the Lions and, as a team who has realistically been “out of it” for weeks already, they should come in fired up and ready to play as Dan Campbell has done a great job having his team ready to play in year one as the head coach.

The level of Detroit’s aggressiveness will likely rely in large part on the availability of Jared Goff, who missed Week 16 due to COVID protocols and is now highly questionable due to a knee strain. If Goff misses, Tim Boyle should draw his third start of the year. Boyle had a poor game against Cleveland in Week 11 but looked serviceable and adequate in a tight loss to Atlanta last week. D’Andre Swift is practicing in full and will almost certainly return after a four-week absence. In his absence, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in four consecutive games. During that time, St. Brown has operated with a 6.6 aDOT (143rd out of 180 wide receivers who have seen a target) and runs 65% of his routes out of the slot. Whether it is Goff or Boyle behind center, St. Brown and Swift are likely to be heavily involved in the short area as the best and most consistent playmakers the Lions have (it also helps that they are first and second year players that the team will want to build around going forward). Seattle is attacked more easily through the air, due to their 28th ranked DVOA pass defense, but Detroit isn’t that good at passing the ball to where they will lean into that to a severe degree. Detroit will still run the ball for a balanced attack, and will likely give carries to three running backs as Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds will stay involved on some level. The Lions should be able to move the ball well enough to put some points on the board and stay competitive, as they have been for the majority of the year against non-elite competition.

How Seattle Will Try to win ::

While Russell Wilson’s finger injury will likely get the majority of the blame for how things turned out in Seattle this year, the reality is the Seahawks are 4-8 in games that Wilson has started and they have disappointed in basically every facet of the game over the course of the season. The coaching staff and front office’s reluctance to lean into a full change to their identity has left them as a rudderless ship that is just below average at everything. Their defense is not very good and is beatable in a variety of ways. Their offense does not have a power running game or any semblance of consistency, yet they also have not embraced playing with tempo or creative play-calling to take advantage of their high-end personnel in the passing game. The best teams in the league have a clear identity and that identity is built around the talents of their best players, the Seahawks have failed miserably in achieving this and the results should not be surprising to anyone.

The Lions have had a solid defense for most of the year, with a few spots where they completely caved in and teams went off – which is what has caused them to rank so poorly in a variety of defensive metrics. In reality, the Lions have been very solid at containing opponents and keeping games close. They have had three games in their last eight where teams scored 27 or more points. Two of those games were against Philadelphia and Denver (44 and 38 points respectively), two teams who pounded them into submission with their running games and physically dominated the Lions. The other instance was a 29-27 win over the Vikings, where the Vikings struggled to move the ball efficiently until they became very aggressive late in a game they were trailing. What this is telling us is the Lions actively work to take away explosive downfield passing and make teams work to matriculate the ball down the field. The Seahawks have become more pass-heavy recently, but they are mostly built to take shots down the field which the Lions should be prepared for. The Seahawks have had a better running game with Rashaad Penny in the backfield, but are not on the level of the teams who bludgeoned the Lions on the ground. Basically, we should expect a standard game plan from the Seahawks (who have yet to show a creative approach this year) that results in moderate offensive success that is unlikely to be explosive or allow them to separate on the scoreboard.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Lions have held five of their last seven opponents under 20 points. Now facing a Seattle team that barely runs over 50 offensive plays in a given week, it seems most likely that this game is a low-scoring, moderate-to-low play volume type of game. Both teams and coaches tend to keep games close and try to win in the 4th quarter. This game is likely to have a lot of long drives and field goals, as both teams project to be able to move the ball and sustain drives but neither has proven to be overly efficient in converting yards to points. Given the moderate to low pace that we should expect, along with moderate pass volume, this game will need something big to spark it. Due to the lack of efficiency or explosive plays from either team (the Lions don’t have the personnel for big plays and the Detroit defensive philosophy will deter it from Seattle), it is likely that this game stays close throughout and comes down to a couple of 4th quarter drives to decide it.



DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>


  • Sixth lowest total
  • DET’s implied total of 17.75 is the seventh lowest
  • DET ranks tied for third in ATS record (10-5)
  • They’ve scored 20+ pts three times this season, twice in the past four weeks and in Week 1
  • Their 17.3 ppg ranks fourth lowest
  • 43.2% red zone TD rate is the lowest
  • DET’s 25.7 ppg allowed is the eighth highest in the league
  • Their 69.4% red zone TD rate allowed is the second highest
  • SEA’s point totals in the past four weeks: 30 // 33 // 10 // 24
  • On the season, their 62.2% red zone TD rate ranks seventh
  • Their 20.5 ppg allowed ranks eighth lowest
  • 49.1% red zone TD rate allowed is the third lowest
  • Neither team is alive in the playoff race
  • Per numberFire, DET ranks 25th in adjusted seconds per play (30.7) and 31st in adjusted pass rate (50.9%)
  • SEA ranks seventh in adjusted seconds per play (28.8) and 19th in adjusted pass rate (56.3%)

Jared Goff

  • Returned from COVID earlier this week
  • Missed Wednesday’s practice due to a knee injury, for which he is considered “day to day”
  • Ranks 29th in PFF passing grade
  • TDs in the past four games: 2 // 3 // 1 // 3
  • DK log in the past four games: 13.84 // 21.94 // 12.6 // 20.64
  • Week 17 DK salary of $5,400 matches a season high
  • Scored 20+ DK pts two other times: 20.44 @ GB in Week 2 // 32.92 vs. SF in Week 1
  • In relief of Goff last week, Timothy Boyle managed 10.48 DK pts @ ATL
  • SEA ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.7)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Matthew Stafford 20.5 // Davis Mills 21.04 // Colt McCoy 25.92 // Kirk Cousins 28.12

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Amon-Ra St. Brown 72.1% // Kalif Raymond 71.4% // Brock Wright 45.8% // Josh Reynolds 39.8% // Shane Zylstra 31.2%
  • Target share: St. Brown 18.7% // Raymond 12.6% // Reynolds 8.8% // Wright 2.9% // Zylstra 1.3%
  • St. Brown is one of just five WRs with at least eight targets in every game in the last month (per TJ Hernandez)
  • He had 12, 12, 11, and 11 targets over that span
  • Among qualified WRs during that time, St. Brown ranked third in overall targets, fourth in receiving yards, 16th in total air yards, fourth in target share, 18th in air yard market share, and fifth in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 22.4 DK ppg during those weeks ranked eighth
  • His DK salary has risen $1,600 since the start of that stretch to a season high of $6,000 in Week 17
  • St. Brown has scored 20+ DK pts three times in 14 games: 23.5 vs. ARI in Week 15 // 24.8 vs. MIN in Week 13 // 26 @ ATL in Week 16
  • Raymond has scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($3,800) twice in 12 games: 19.6 @ CHI in Week 4 // 20.6 @ LAR in Week 7
  • Reynolds has scored 15+ DK pts twice in five games as a Lion: 16 vs. CHI in Week 12 // 18.8 vs. ARI in Week 15
  • SEA ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.4)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Zach Pascal 20.3 // Brandin Cooks 21.1 // Julio Jones 21.8 // Justin Jefferson 29.8 // Robert Woods 30 // Cooper Kupp 37.7 // Deebo Samuel 38.7
  • Wright has hit double digit DK pts once, 10.8 vs. MIN in Week 13
  • Zylstra has yet to score 5 DK pts
  • SEA ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (15.6)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Jimmy Graham 11 // Brevin Jordan 12.6 // Pat Freiermuth 12.8 // Dan Arnold 14.8 // Tyler Conklin 20 // Zach Ertz 28.8 // George Kittle 42.6


  • D’Andre Swift has practiced in full this week and is expected to play
  • Snap share: Craig Reynolds 50.3% // Swift 50.2% // Jamaal Williams 27.9%
  • Target share: Swift 13.4% // Williams 4.6% // Reynolds 1.3%
  • Touches per game: Reynolds 18 // Swift 17.8 // Williams 13.7
  • Among qualified RBs, Swift ranks 13th in rush share, 18th in goal line share, second in target share, second in WOPR, and fifth in RBOPR
  • His 17.8 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • His Week 17 DK salary ($6,000) is tied for his second lowest cost on the season
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times in 11 games: 22.4 @ MIN in Week 5 // 23.7 vs. BAL in Week 3 // 24.4 vs. SF in Week 1 // 15.6 @ CLE in Week 11 // 28.4 @ LAR in Week 7
  • Reynolds has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Williams hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since Week 1 vs. SF (25)
  • SEA ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (30.7)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 24.7 // Alexander Mattison 26.1 // Antonio Gibson 26.6 // AJ Dillon 26.8 // Alvin Kamara 36.9 // Derrick Henry 50.7

Russell Wilson

  • Ranks 23rd in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for seventh in YPA (7.6) and first in ADoT (10.2)
  • Lowest TD% (5.2%) in the past five seasons
  • Career low in rushing attempts per game (2.75)
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($6,200) twice in 12 games: 26.32 vs. TEN in Week 2 // 27.06 @ IND in Week 1
  • DET ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.5)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Lamar Jackson 20.28 // Joe Burrow 23.84 // Kirk Cousins 24.2 // Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Matthew Stafford 30.16

SEA Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DK Metcalf 83.7% // Tyler Lockett 81.5% // Gerald Everett 63.2% // Freddie Swain 62.4% // Will Dissly 56.2% // Dee Eskridge 24.4%
  • Target share: Metcalf 24.8% // Lockett 22.5% // Everett 12.5% // Swain 8.4% // Dissly 5.7% // Eskridge 3.9%
  • Among qualified WRs, Metcalf ranks 13th in target share, 10th in air yard market share, and 11th in WOPR
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($6,500), or close enough, twice in 15 games: 25.7 @ MIN in Week 3 // 26.8 vs. LAR in Week 5
  • Lockett ranks 15th in target share, fourth in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($6,400) four times in 14 games: 29 @ IND in Week 1 // 29.2 vs. JAX in Week 8 // 30.2 @ HOU in Week 14 // 34.8 vs. TEN @ Week 2
  • Swain has scored 20+ DK pts once (21 vs. TEN in Week 2)
  • Eskridge has yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • DET ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.5)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Darnell Mooney 20.5 // Mooney 21.5 // Justin Jefferson 22.4 // Davante Adams 23.1 // Christian Kirk 24.4 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Dissly missed Week 16 on the COVID list, but he’s since been reactivated
  • He’s yet to score double digit DK pts
  • Everett has scored double digit DK pts in seven out of 13 games: 10 @ IND in Week 1 // 10 @ LAR in Week 15 // 10.4 @ MIN in Week 3 // 10.8 @ HOU in Week 14 // 14.3  @ GB in Week 10 // 14.7 @ WAS in Week 12 // 16.8 vs. CHI in Week 16
  • His $4,100 Week 17 DK salary is a season high
  • DET ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.5)
  • 12 opposing TEs have scored double digit DK pts vs. DET
  • Just two have scored 4x Everett’s Week 17 salary: Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2


  • Seasonal snap share: Alex Collins 29.8% // Rashaad Penny 24.3% // DeeJay Dallas 18.2%
  • Target share: Dallas 5.2% // Collins 2.3% // Penny 1.1%
  • Touches per game: Collins 10.6 // Penny 9.4 // Dallas 3.5
  • Penny has led the backfield in touches in each of the past four weeks: 11 // 17 // 13 // 17
  • Among qualified RBs in those four weeks, Penny ranked 11th in rush share, 14th in goal line share, and 14th in RBOPR
  • His 16.5 DK ppg in that time ranked 13th
  • His Week 17 DK salary is $6,100 (a career high)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in eight games this year: 29.8 @ HOU in Week 14 // 22.5 vs. CHI in Week 16
  • Collins has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Dallas has yet to score 15 DK pts
  • DET ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (27.7)
  • Nine opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. DET: Najee Harris 20.3 // Javonte Williams 21.3 // Alexander Mattison 21.4 // Nick Chubb 25.4 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Melvin Gordon 26.1 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Mattison 30.3 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 8:20pm Eastern

Vikings (
14.5) at

Packers (

Over/Under 42.0


Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass


Sunday Night Football brings us a matchup that looked pretty fun until (loudly) unvaccinated Kirk Cousins caught COVID . . . whoopsie. Now, it’s Sean Mannion starting for the Vikings, whose team total has plummeted all the way down to 14.75. The Packers have a 27.75 total in what is projected to be a sound thrashing.

Because Cousins was ruled out after the slate was posted, Mannion is just $6k, the minimum price for a Showdown quarterback, and that means he is the most important decision point on the slate. We don’t get QBs this cheap in Showdown, and we normally play even pretty bad QBs in the $9k range because the floor of the position is so strong. But, we can also expect massive ownership on Mannion for exactly this reason, so while in cash he’s a clear lock, in tournaments, we need to think about how we want to approach him (and the Vikings offense as a whole). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Green Bay

On the Green Bay side, the run game has evolved into a timeshare between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The Packers clearly want to take it easy on Jones and keep him healthy for their playoff run, resulting in Jones seeing fewer than 15 carries in every week from Week 9 onwards. That has come with a reasonable pass game role, but given the lack of volume, you’re almost certain to need a touchdown for him to pay off. Dillon at $5,200 can feasibly get there just on volume, (though, duh, a touchdown would clearly help). This is a tough spot. As almost two-touchdown favorites, normally we’d want to use the home favorite running back, but Jones’ role feels pretty fragile of late and could be even more so if the Packers win handily. With Green Bay looking ahead to the postseason, it doesn’t really make sense for them to push their primary guys super hard if Minnesota isn’t keeping the game competitive, which also leads me to think that the RB3 could be a viable play in Packers onslaught builds. If there’s one active, it will most likely be Patrick Taylor.

The best overall play in this game besides Aaron Rodgers is probably Davante Adams. This late in the season, all of the primary Green Bay guys have some amount of workload concern in a non-competitive game, but Adams is still going to be the WR1 for as long as he’s playing, and he always has massive touchdown equity. This feels like a slate in which raw points count for more than value, and so Adams is my main guy here. Behind him, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is back from injury, and he and Allen Lazard will fill out the primary wide receiver formations. Both MVS and Lazard are fine options, though I have a preference for MVS due to his higher target counts in games in which both he and Lazard have played. Behind those two, we’re likely to see Equanimeous St. Brown and/or Juwann Winfree operate as rotational receivers (with possible role expansion if the game gets really out of hand). Tight end for the Packers is a wasteland, as it has been since Robert Tonyan went down. Josiah Deguara and Marcedes Lewis will split the snaps, with Deguara more of a pass-catcher and Lewis more of a blocker. Both of these guys are fairly thin punts, and while Deguara has the (very slightly) better pass-catching role, at his $3k salary versus Lewis’s $800, I prefer Lewis in rosters in which the salary would be meaningful. 


On the Minnesota side, they’re still alive in the playoff hunt, though things will be looking grim if they lose this game. As massive underdogs and with a replacement QB, it makes sense for them to try to lean hard on their run game if this one stays at all competitive. The matchup favors the run, and Dalvin Cook is a better guy to put the fate of the team on than Sean Mannion. Duh. If the game stays close, Cook should be in line for an absolutely massive workload, but the Vikings defense will need to hold up as well. Should Minnesota fall behind, their playoff hopes would essentially collapse, and they might decide to mail it in and preserve their oft-injured star back. If that scenario happens early, the Vikings could run out the game with Alexander Mattison or perhaps even Kene Nwangwu.

In the passing game, while I expect the Vikings to try to not lean too hard on Mannion when they do throw, Justin Jefferson still has an elite role sans Adam Thielen. It’s hard to see Jefferson paying off a $10.8k salary in a difficult matchup and with a replacement quarterback, so to me this is an ownership decision: if the field leans purely on projections and plays Jefferson heavily, I’ll happily be underweight him and hope that Mannion can’t deliver. But if the field panics about Mannion and avoids Jefferson, then I’ll want to bet on the Vikings most talented pass-catcher. Behind Jefferson, K.J. Osborn has filled in reasonably well for Thielen. Osborn is at an awkward price point as he’s more expensive than MVS and Lazard and just $1,200 less than Aaron Jones, which should result in extremely low ownership. It’s uncomfortable, but in tournaments, it’s a spot I’d want to be overweight on. Dede Westbrook should play the WR3 role, but when he’s had it before, he’s just been running wind sprints, with just two total targets in the three games in which Westbrook has played and Thielen has either missed or gotten hurt partway through. You could bet on something different here, and I’m never really opposed to having some exposure to a guy who will be on the field a ton, and who will also be almost completely unowned, but it’s a scary play. At tight end, Tyler Conklin’s role really hasn’t changed at all since Thielen went down. Sorry, Conklin truthers. He’s a touchdown or bust option, but the matchup for him is positive and we know rookie and/or backup QBs often lean heavily on their tight ends so . . . I guess there’s hope? Yeesh. It’s hard to write up this passing game. They’re all ugly. Oh, Chris Herndon and Luke Stocker should also play a handful of snaps and can be considered in MME player pools.


Before you think about players or rosters, the first thing you should think about is if you want to bet on the game being competitive or not. Minnesota doesn’t have to WIN the game, but as long as they don’t get absolutely trashed, that means the Packers should be playing hard until the end (or close to it). If the Packers are up 21-0 at halftime, we may see some shenanigans in the second half with starters being pulled. I think there are basically three ways to build for this game:

  • The game is competitive, which means the main Packers are all in play, as are all of the main Vikings (after all, if the game is competitive, this means the Vikings are scoring touchdowns!). I’d want to be overweight on all the main Vikings guys in this scenario, including 4-2 Vikings builds. 
  • The game isn’t competitive, but it doesn’t dip all the way to ridiculousness with backups playing the second half. 5-1 Packers onslaughts are entirely viable, with Cook as my favorite Viking, followed by Jefferson, then Osborn, then Conklin.
  • The game isn’t competitive and is such a blowout that either or both teams start playing random dudes instead of their stars. This is the hardest scenario to build for, because it’s hard to know who those random dudes might be (anything that significantly expands the player pool makes roster construction more challenging!), but it’s also the scenario with the greatest likelihood of a solo win. I probably won’t play this way personally but I might take a few shots on FanDuel, where solo wins are just SO hard to come by that it feels worth a stab or two at it. I’d be looking towards backup running backs here primarily, followed by guys like St. Brown and Winfree. Good grief, maybe even Jordan Love? How crazy can we get here?
Cash Games

In cash, my player pool consists of all the primary Packers (literally all of them: Rodgers, Adams, Jones, Dillon, MVS, Crosby, the defense). My cash lineup is almost certainly going to be a 5-1 onslaught build because that’s the likeliest outcome, with Mannion as my one Viking. 


In tournaments, I want to be overweight captain on MVS, Jones, Dillon, and Cook primarily. 

Some groups to consider
  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
  • If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
  • Pair captain QBs with at least 2 pass catchers
  • At most 1 of the random backup dudes unless you’re REALLY trying to be wild.
  • I’m okay playing all of Rodgers, Jones, and Dillon together, but I’m not sure if I’d want to go that route if one of them is my captain. I’m undecided on this one, but I’m leaning towards saying if any of those three is the captain on a roster, at most one of the other two. 
  • Not a lot of groups in this one as both of these teams run fairly concentrated offenses. Yay!

By Alex88 >>


  • Third highest total on the week
  • GB’s implied total of 27 is the seventh highest
  • MIN has scored fewer than 20 pts just once in the past eight weeks
  • Their 62.7% red zone TD rate is the sixth highest
  • Their defense has allowed fewer than 20 pts just once in the past ten weeks (the same game in which they scored fewer than 20, a 17-9 victory in Week 15 @ CHI)
  • Their 24.8 ppg allowed is the tenth highest in the league
  • GB has the second best ATS record (11-3)
  • GB has scored fewer than 24 pts just three times all year
  • Their defense has held opponents to fewer than 20 pts just twice in the past eight weeks
  • Their 68.2% red zone TD rate allowed is tied for the third highest rate with IND
  • MIN is still alive in the NFC Wild Card race, but they must win @ GB this week which no team has managed this season
  • GB has clinched the NFC North once again
  • If they beat MIN and DAL loses to ARI, they will clinch the # 1 seed
  • Per numberFire, MIN ranks fifth in adjusted seconds per play (28.7) and 14th in adjusted pass rate (58.7%)
  • GB ranks 32nd in adjusted seconds per play (32.8) and ninth in adjusted pass rate (60.8%)

Kirk Cousins

  • Ranks fourth in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for 10th in YPA (7.4), tied for 15th in ADoT (8.3), tied for seventh in adjusted completion percentage (77.3%)
  • Career low INT% (1.3%)
  • 20.4 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • DK salary range of $6,100 – $6,700 ($6,400 in Week 17)
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts in five of 15 games: 25.04 @ CIN in Week 1 // 25.26 @ ARI in Week 2 // 28.12 vs. SEA in Week 3 // 28.24 vs. GB in Week 11 // 31.52 @ CAR in Week 6
  • GB ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.8)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 25+ DK pts vs. GB: Matthew Stafford 26.98 // Kirk Cousins 28.24 // Jameis Winston 29.62 // Tyler Huntley 35.9

MIN Passing Attack

  • Adam Thielen has been shut down for the season
  • He’s been absent or severely limited due to injury in the past four weeks
  • Snap totals those weeks: Justin Jefferson 256 // KJ Osborn 236 // Tyler Conklin 229 // Dede Westbrook 88
  • Target totals those weeks: Jefferson 51 // Osborn 26 // Conklin 19 // Westbrook 2
  • Among qualified WRs, Jefferson ranks second in total targets, second in receiving yardage, first in total air yards, third in target share, first in air yard market share, and third in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 21 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • $8,400 Week 17 salary is $100 short of the season high
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts four times in 15 games: 25.9 @ LAC in Week 10 // 29.8 vs. SEA in Week 3 // 38.6 @ DET in Week 13 // 40.2 vs. GB in Week 11
  • Osborn has scored 15+ DK pts four times in 14 games: 17.3 vs. PIT in Week 14 // 17.8 vs. LAR in Week 16 // 19.8 @ CAR in Week 6 // 20.1 @ ARI in Week 2
  • Although Westbrook’s snaps rose dramatically with Thielen missing, he has yet to score 5 DK pts this season
  • GB ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.5)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Adam Thielen 22.2 // Diontae Johnson 24.2 // Terry McLaurin 28.2 // Ja’Marr Chase 30.9 // Justin Jefferson 40.2
  • Conklin missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury
  • Among qualified TEs, Conklin ranks 17th in target share, 19th in air yard market share, and 20th in WOPR
  • His Week 17 DK salary ($4,000) is $100 short of a season high
  • He’s scored 4x that salary twice in 15 games: 16.1 @ LAC in Week 10 // 20 vs. SEA in Week 3
  • GB ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (13.6)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: George Kittle 17.1 // Travis Kelce 17.8 // TJ Hockenson 20.6 // Mark Andrews 38.6

Dalvin Cook

  • Returned from COVID to a limited practice on Wednesday
  • Among qualified RBs, Cook ranks third in rush share, fourth in goal line share, 10th in target share, 13th in WOPR, and third in RBOPR
  • His 18.8 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • DK salary range of $7,700 – $9,100 ($8,000 in Week 17)
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts twice in 11 games: 25.3 @ CAR in Week 6 // 38.2 vs. PIT in Week 14
  • GB ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.2)
  • Just three opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts: Najee Harris 21.1 // Dalvin Cook 22.5 // Nick Chubb 30.4

Aaron Rodgers

  • Ranks fifth in PFF passing grade
  • Last year’s MVP is the current favorite for this year
  • Among qualified QBs, ranks first in fantasy points per opportunity (0.6) and first in Expected Points Added per attempt
  • 22.5 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • Week 17 DK salary of $7,700 is a season high
  • Scored 25+ DK pts four times: 26.8 vs. DET in Week 2 // 29.28 vs. LAR in Week 12 // 32.64 vs. CHI in Week 14 // 36.5 @ MIN in Week 11
  • MIN ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (20.4)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 25+ vs. MIN: Ben Roethlisberger 28.82 // Lamar Jackson 35.64 // Aaron Rodgers 36.5 // Kyler Murray 38.1

GB Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Davante Adams 82.4% // Allen Lazard 65.7% // MVS 60.2% // Marcedes Lewis 47.1% // Josiah Deguara 31.7% // Equanimeous St. Brown 26.1%
  • Target share: Adams 28.7% // MVS 9.9% // Lazard 9.3% // Lewis 5.2% // Deguara 5% // St. Brown 1.9%
  • Among qualified WRs, Adams ranks third in total targets, third in receiving yards, eighth in total air yards, second in target share, sixth in air yard market share, and second in WOPR
  • His 23.1 DK ppg ranks second
  • His Week 17 DK salary of $9,300 is a season high
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts five times: 33.5 @ MIN in Week 11 // 34.2 @ SF in Week 3 // 36.4 vs. CLE in Week 16 // 37.1  vs. CHI in Week 14 // 40.6 @ CIN in Week 5
  • MVS leads the team in ADoT
  • He’s averaged 5.7 targets per game
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($5,100) twice in eight games: 20.8 @ BAL in Week 15 // 25.3 @ MIN in Week 11
  • Lazard has scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($4,200) twice in 12 games: 17 vs. WAS in Week 7 // 20.9 vs. CHI in Week 14
  • St. Brown has yet to score double digit DK pts
  • MIN ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs (43.7)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: MVS 25.3 // DK Metcalf 25.7 // Rondale Moore 27.4 // Amari Cooper 29.2 // Davante Adams 33.5
  • Lewis’s best game was a 9.1 pt. output vs. CHI in Week 14
  • Deguara’s best game was an 11.7 pt. Output @ MIN in Week 11
  • MIN ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (10.8)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Gerald Everett 10.4 // Pat Freiermuth 11.2 // Josiah Deguara 11.7 // Cole Kmet 13.1 // TJ Hockenson 14.9 // Maxx Williams 16.4 


  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 56.2% // AJ Dillon 41.1%
  • Target share: Jones 11.4% // Dillon 6.4%
  • Touches per game: Jones 15 // Dillon 12.7
  • Jones has led Dillon in touches just once in the past four weeks
  • Among qualified RBs, Jones ranks seventh in target share, seventh in WOPR, and 17th in RBOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($7,200) just once: 41.5 vs. DET in Week 2
  • He’s only scored 20+ DK pts once in the past eight weeks
  • Among qualified RBs, Dillon ranks 25th in goal line share
  • His DK salary range has been $3,800 – $6,200 ($5,800 in Week 17)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice: 20 vs. LAR in Week 12 // 26.8 vs. SEA in Week 10
  • MIN ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (24.3)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: D’Andre Swift 22.4 // Sony Michel 23.5 // Najee Harris 25.4 // Joe Mixon 28 // Elijah Mitchell 30.8

Kickoff Monday, Jan 3rd 9:15pm Eastern

Browns (
21.25) at

Steelers (

Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass


Monday Night Football brings us what might be another snoozefest as the Browns visit the Steelers for a mediocre 42 point total game, with Pittsburgh favored by one point. As I write this, I’m watching the disaster of a Sunday night game so this should hopefully be more interesting since at least the score should be fairly close.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically


On the Cleveland side, it looks like Kareem Hunt may return to take up his split role in the backfield. This doesn’t really impact Nick Chubb all that much, however, as Chubb hasn’t really seen a tremendous amount more work this season when Hunt has been out. Chubb himself is still a strong play as the primary engine of the offense, just recognize that as he’s primarily a yardage and touchdown back, and his high ceiling also comes with a very low floor. Chubb has four games under 10 DK points this season which is not ideal for a guy priced at $11.6k. But, we know the Browns want to run, we know they’re an elite rushing offense, and the Steelers have sunk all the way down to 30th in run defense DVOA. The matchup doesn’t get much better than this. As for Hunt, his workload here would be uncertain. He’s only played two games since Week 6 (and he barely played in either of them), he’s coming back from an ankle injury, he only got two limited practices in this week, and he spent time on the COVID list. Hunt would be an ownership play to me: if people are scared of him and ownership projections have him really low, I’m okay being overweight here. But if people see a $5,400 Kareem Hunt and flock to him as a strong on-paper value play, then I would want to go the other way and bet that his role would be limited in his first game back. If Hunt misses, D’Ernest Johnson would be Chubb’s backup, a role that produced just 11 running back opportunities in the last two games since we last saw Hunt. Demetric Felton might also see a couple of snaps if you want to include him in your MME punt pool.

At wide receiver, the Browns are back to full strength, with Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Rashard Higgins playing the primary roles while Anthony Schwartz occasionally mixes in. On a run-first offense that would like to hold their QB to 30 or fewer pass attempts, any Browns pass-catcher is a bit of a scary play. Landry is clearly the safest option, and at $8,400, his price is reasonable for his role. Landry can occasionally get to double-digit targets in close games, which this game projects to be, and the matchup here is favorable as Pittsburgh is most vulnerable to slot receivers (to be clear, they’re kind of vulnerable everywhere this season). Landry only has one touchdown but a solid 10 red zone targets (most of the wideouts), so I see upside here as well. Of the other two, personally, I prefer DPJ to Higgins, though it’s pretty coin-flippy. DPJ has a more volatile role as the primary deep threat receiver, but that also brings him ceiling, while Higgins’ role has been kind of up and down all season (at one point it looked like the Browns were going to phase him out of the offense before bringing him back in so that just creates a bit of uncertainty that I’m a little wary of). At tight end, the Browns have all three of Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant healthy again, which means they go back to their 3-way timeshare. Hooper and Njoku play significantly more snaps than Bryant, and both have strong red zone roles with 15 targets for Hooper, 10 for Njoku, and just 3 for Bryant. At their prices, I prefer Njoku first, as he and Hooper are pretty even in terms of workload and production, but Njoku is $1k cheaper. Bryant at $3,000 is a touchdown-or-bust MME only play for me as he only has 24 targets on the year, he doesn’t have a well-established red zone role compared to the other two tight ends, and he’s priced well above a punt option.


On the Steelers side, we know the deal with their running game: it’s Najee Harris all day unless the game is a ridiculous blowout, and even then, Harris will still see a tremendous snap share. Harris played 78% of the snaps and saw 26 opportunities in last week’s curb-stomping by the Chiefs, while Benny Snell played 22% of the snaps and saw 6 opportunities. The Steelers do still have faint playoff hopes, so as long as this game remains competitive, I don’t see any risk of them deciding to shut Najee down in his rookie season. Of the three guys priced above $10k in this game, I think Harris has the safest floor. 

In the passing game, it’s primarily Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, with Ray-Ray McCloud looking to have passed James Washington in the depth chart the last few weeks, and then some guy named Cody White getting blowout run last week and playing 39% of the snaps. I feel fairly confident White only played because of the blowout, and that the snap count is a mirage that will disappear this week. I’ll let other people chase that if they want to. We’ve had a bunch of Steelers Showdowns so by now you guys know the drill. Diontae is a near-lock for double-digit targets every game. They’ll mostly be short targets, and the overall offensive efficiency is questionable, but his floor is rock-solid and he leads the team in red zone targets by a country mile (27 vs. 18 for Pat Freiermuth, 14 for Najee, and 13 for Claypool). Poor Claypool has had an incredibly disappointing sophomore season with just one game over 20 DK points, one game over 100 receiving yards, one game over double-digit targets, and just one touchdown. Yikes. He’s still on the field a ton and still getting opportunities, but I think I actually prefer the Cleveland guys that he’s priced near over him. The only thing in his favor is that he’s kind of at an awkward price point with only one player within $1,200 of him and that usually tends to lead to pretty modest ownership. I’ll keep an eye here to decide what I want to do with him. McCloud is an incredibly low-upside player who is averaging just 6.6 yards per catch, so even at $3,400, he’ll need a pile of catches or a touchdown to pay off. Washington is the opposite, as he has some legitimate deep-ball juice and can get there on just a couple of plays. He’s also $1,200 cheaper, so even though he’s on the field less than McCloud, I prefer him as a play. At tight end, Pat Freiermuth is back and he’s a guy I’m excited to play, as we’ve attacked Cleveland’s defense with tight ends for years now. Freiermuth has a big role as he’s second on the team in red zone targets despite beginning the year in a timeshare with Eric Ebron. I love him here and want to be overweight. Zach Gentry will back him up but is primarily a blocker, having garnered just 18 targets on the season. 


The way this game is likeliest to play out is slow and grinding. Cleveland very much wants to run and play slow, and while Pittsburgh passes at the third-highest rate in the league, they’ll slow things down if playing from ahead or if the game is close. The way this game goes differently is if one team jumps out to a multiple-score lead, which is unlikely here but possible. Let’s consider a few different game scenarios we might see:

  • One team could fail to show up. I think Pittsburgh is more likely to fail here, as we’ve seen them really flounder this season in a few spots (Cleveland’s offensive strength lines up well with Pittsburgh’s point of vulnerability, so while anything is possible, it feels less likely that the Browns just fall flat here). 
  • I expect a lot of ownership on the run games here, with Chubb and Harris likely to be two of the three or four highest-owned players on the slate. The easiest way to be different in this one, to me, is to simply bet on all of the touchdowns coming through the air. 
Cash Games

In cash, my player pool consists of the quarterbacks, Harris, Diontae (if I can afford him, which I kind of doubt), the kickers, and then I’m okay using someone like Freiermuth or Njoku if I happen to land there on salary. I don’t think I’d be willing to go any cheaper than Washington (and I would really rather not go to him). 


In tournaments, I want to be overweight captain on Landry, DPJ, Njoku, Freiermuth, and Diontae.

Some groups to consider
  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
  • If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
  • Pair captain QBs with at least 2 pass catchers
  • At most 2 Browns tight ends
  • At most 1 of McCloud and Washington
  • At most 1 of Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson if trying to target the RB2 spot for Cleveland (assuming they’re both active, of course)