Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
19) at
Colts (
27.5)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass

POSTED 4 PM EST ON THURSDAY

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • Carson Wentz is currently on the COVID list but could come off in time to play.
  • The Raiders are likely to lean pass heavy.
  • Jonathan Taylor is the premier RB play on the slate.
  • Mo Alie-Cox saw 90% of the snaps last week after Jack Doyle went down with an injury

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The 9-6 Colts come into Week 17 as one of the hottest groups in the league. Frank Reich’s team has gone 8-2, after a 1-4 start, with their only losses coming in OT against the Titans and by one score against the Bucs. The Colts look legitimately good, operating on the back of an elite running game that has pounded even top-tier run defenses (Jonathan Taylor had 5.2 YPC against the Bucs). The Colts are a threat to make a deep playoff run, and still have a slim chance to win their division, which will keep them playing at full speed this week.

The Raiders defense has been middling against the pass (17th in DVOA) and poor against the run (23rd in DVOA against the run). That sets up beautifully for a Colts team that wants nothing more than to let Jonathan Taylor win them games. The Colts run the ball and play slow in all situations. There is no reason to expect anything different here. The Colts are going to try and pound the ball to victory while chewing up the clock.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The 8-7 Raiders come into Week 17 hoping to end their season with a playoff appearance. They are riding a two-game winning streak and are in a four-way tie for the last wild card spot in the AFC with three other teams (Dolphins/Ravens/Chargers). The Raiders are currently in fourth place out of those teams on tiebreakers, which means a loss likely eliminates them from the postseason. This is a must-win game. The Raiders play at a middling pace (17th in situational neutral) but slow down when ahead (26th in pace), and don’t speed up much when losing (23rd in pace), creating a lot of paths for this game to have a low number of plays.

The Colts defense has been lights out against the run (1st in DVOA) and middling against the pass (16th in DVOA). There isn’t much reason to run against the Colts, as you’re essentially just wasting plays. The Raiders have shown they want to throw the ball, and this matchup should encourage them to keep passing. Expect the Raiders to run just enough to keep the Colts defense honest, while skewing pass-heavy from the start of the game.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish total (44.5) because both teams play at a slow pace in all situations and it’s likely that we see a game without a lot of plays. However, both offenses set up well to attack the relative weakness of their opponents. There is every reason to think the Colts (especially if Carson Wentz plays) will have a high drive success rate. Even though the Colts defense is strong the Raiders are likely to have at least some success moving the ball through the air. The main obstacle to this game taking off is time crunching drives, not the offenses failing. The most likely game flow has the Colts taking control of this game with their running game, and the Raiders trying to keep up through the air, ultimately falling behind late and losing by a touchdown.  

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Had the second highest Vegas total at opening (49.5)
  • Since fallen after Carson Wentz tested positive
  • IND’s implied total fell five points after the news, but has risen again since the new COVID rules have taken effect (although Wentz’s status is still up in the air)
  • With a win, IND clinches a playoff spot (and they’re technically still alive for the AFC South title)
  • IND tied with DET for third best ATS record (10-5)
  • IND hasn’t scored fewer than 20 pts since Week 3
  • Their 28 ppg ranks fifth
  • Their 68.2% red zone TD% allowed ranks tied for the third highest with GB
  • LV is still alive for a wild card spot in the AFC race
  • They’ve scored 20+ pts just once in the last eight weeks
  • Their defense has allowed 25.8 ppg, seventh highest
  • Their 78.9% red zone TD% allowed ranks first, nearly ten percentage points higher than the second ranked team (DET, 69.4%)
  • Per numberFire, LV ranks 14th in adjusted seconds per play (29.3) and sixth in adjusted pass rate (62.2%)
  • IND ranks 31st in adjusted seconds per play (32.7) and 18th in adjusted pass rate (56.7%)

Derek Carr

  • Ranks ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Ranks tied for fifth in YPA (7.8), tied for 10th in ADoT (8.4), and fourth in adjusted completion percentage (78.3%)
  • 17.7 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($5,800) six times: 23.02 (close enough) // 24.02 // 24.54 // 25.24 // 27.18 // 28
  • IND ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.6)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 4x Carr’s Week 17 salary vs. IND: Ryan Tannehill 23.2 // Tannehill 23.48 // Russell Wilson 27.06 // Lamar Jackson 45.88
  • All four of those happened in the first eight weeks
  • Kyler Murray’s 21.9 last week is the only other instance of 20+ pts vs. IND

LV Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Bryan Edwards 71% // Hunter Renfrow 66.5% // Foster Moreau 63.8% // Darren Waller 54.7% // Zay Jones 52.2% // DeSean Jackson 29.2%
  • Target share: Renfrow 20.4% // Waller 15% // Edwards 9.3% // Jones 9.3% // Moreau 7.3% // Jackson 5.5%
  • Among qualified WRs, Renfrow ranks 24th in target share (per Koalaty Stats)
  • He’s scored double digit DK pts in all but three games this year: 6.6 // 7.5 // 6.2
  • But he’s scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($6,500) just once, 32.7 @ KC in Week 14, and 20+ DK pts just three times
  • Edwards missed Week 16 due to COVID
  • His target counts in his last four games played: 1 // 5 // 3 // 4
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($3,300) twice in 12 games: 13.3 vs. PHI in Week 7 // 17.8 vs. KC in Week 10
  • Target counts for Jones in his last four games: 5 // 7 // 9 // 8
  • He’s yet to score 4x his Week 17 salary ($3,900) this year
  • Jackson saw his most targets (5) all season (no matter the team he played for) in Week 16 with Edwards absent
  • On those targets, he managed just 8.4 DK pts
  • IND ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (35.3)
  • Six opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. IND: Deebo Samuel 25 // Elijah Moore 27.4 // Tyler Lockett 29 // AJ Brown 34.5 // Marquise Brown 36.5 // Cooper Kupp 39.8
  • Waller may start practicing again on Wednesday and there is an outside chance he returns this week (out since Thanksgiving)
  • On the season, his 8.4 targets per game leads the team
  • Moreau’s target counts since replacing Waller: 3 // 6 // 9 // 4
  • DK log: 4.4 // 4.3 // 13.5 // 10.7
  • He’s yet to score a TD with Waller sidelined
  • IND ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs (17.3)
  • Opposing TEs that have scored 4x Moreau’s Week 17 salary ($3,800) vs. IND: Mike Gesicki 16.7 // Gronk 22.3 // Hunter Henry 25.7 // Mark Andrews 44.7

Josh Jacobs

  • Among qualified RBs, Jacobs ranks eighth in rush share, seventh in goal line share, 11th in target share, 11th in WOPR, and 10th in RBOPR
  • Averaging 4.5 targets per game (career high)
  • Jacobs’s target counts in the last four weeks: 9 // 6 // 4 // 3
  • Touches in the past four weeks: 22 // 14 // 18 // 28
  • His 14.7 DK ppg are a career low
  • He’s yet to score 4x his Week 17 salary ($6,200) and has only scored 20+ pts once (24 vs. WAS in Week 13)
  • IND ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (20.6)
  • Just three opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. IND: Derrick Henry 22.4 // Chase Edmonds 26.7 // Leonard Fournette 47.1

Carson Wentz

  • Wentz was place on the COVID list on Tuesday
  • Later that day, the COVID protocols were changed so although unvaccinated, he has a chance to play this week in a critical game for IND’s playoff hopes
  • Ranks 22nd in PFF passing grade
  • Career low in attempts (30.7, next lowest was the PHI Super Bowl run in 2017 with 33.8)
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 salary ($5,700) three times in 15 games: 24.18 // 26.34 // 26.58
  • He had 30+ attempts in all three
  • He’s thrown 30+ times just once in the past five games, versus pass-funnel TB
  • LV ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.3)
  • Four opposing QBs have scored 4x Wentz’s Week 17 salary: Jalen Hurts 24.54 // Teddy Bridgewater 25.26 // Dak Prescott 28.3 // Patrick Mahomes 39.24
  • Bridgewater, Prescott, and Mahomes all threw 45+ times, while Hurts ran for 60 yards to help hit his score

IND Passing Attack

  • Targets per game: Michael Pittman 7.7 // Zach Pascal 4.6 // TY Hilton 3.6 // Jack Doyle 2.7 // Mo Alie-Cox 2.5 // Ashton Dulin 1.4
  • TDs this season: Pittman 5 // Alie-Cox 4 // Doyle 3 // Pascal 3 // Dulin 2 // Hilton 2
  • Among qualified WRs, Pittman ranks 11th in target share, 16th in air yard market share, and 10th in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($5,800) three times in 15 games: 23.3 vs. LAR // 23.5 @ SF // 30.6 vs. TEN
  • All of those games came in the first eight weeks of the season
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ pts since then
  • Pascal has scored double digit DK pts since Week 2
  • Hilton has scored double digits three times in eight games, but has yet to score 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($4,500)
  • LV ranks third in DK ppg allowed to WRs (29.9)
  • Only four opposing WRs have scored 20+ vs. LV (and none in the past four weeks): Cedrick Wilson 20.4 // Diontae Johnson 22.5 // Courtland Sutton 23.4 // Tyreek Hill 27.5
  • Doyle has scored double digit DK pts twice: 13.4 vs. LAR in Week 2 // 20.1 vs. TB in Week 12
  • Alie-Cox has scored double digits twice: 11.5 @ SF in Week 7 // 19.2 @ MIA in Week 4
  • LV ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.2)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dallas Goedert 12 // Evan Engram 12.8 // Logan Thomas 13.8 // Dalton Schultz 15.6 // Mike Gesicki 18.6 // Jared Cook 19 // Travis Kelce 22.9 // Noah Fant 24.7

Jonathan Taylor

  • Among qualified RBs, Taylor ranks fifth in rush share, second in goal line share, 13th in target share, 15th in WOPR, and sixth in RBOPR
  • His 24.9 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s only scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($9,000) twice in 15 games: 37 vs. NYJ in Week 9 // 56.4 @ BUF in Week 11
  • However, he’s scored 30+ pts four times
  • LV ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.3)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Joe Mixon 27.3 // Darrel Williams 32.4 // Austin Ekeler 32.5