Broncos (

18.75) at
Chargers (

26.25)

POSTED 9 PM EST ON THURSDAY

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86>>

• This is a divisional rematch from a game a few weeks ago when the Broncos beat the Chargers 28-13 in Denver. The Broncos controlled that game with their running game and defense, making the Chargers one-dimensional and making things difficult for them on both sides of the ball.
• Both teams are currently on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture, and whichever team loses this game is likely done.
• Denver needs to win their last two games and get A LOT of help to make the playoffs.
• If Los Angeles wins their last two games, they will still need a little help somewhere but have a very strong chance that they would get in the playoffs with a 10-7 record.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos want to hide Drew Lock. In his only start last week against a mediocre Raiders defense, the Broncos ran only 40 offensive plays and managed 158 total yards. They struggled to move the ball at all and managed only 18 rushing yards with the Raiders selling out to stop the run. Vic Fangio had no interest in cutting Drew Lock loose to make them pay for this strategy, so the Broncos just engaged in a punting battle that they ended up losing. The Raiders complete inability to separate themselves offensively allowed Denver to stick with that strategy, as the Broncos just tried to survive an ugly game rather than going out and winning it.

The Broncos are a slow-paced team (27th in the league in situation-neutral pace of play) who want to lean on their running game. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the league and that should play right into Denver’s hands. Los Angeles couldn’t even stop the Texans from having success running the ball so it is unlikely they will be able to stop the Broncos backfield. If Denver can get 35-40 rushing attempts from their backs with any level of efficiency, while keeping Drew Lock from throwing the ball over 25 times, Vic Fangio will be a very happy man.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

On paper, the Broncos are more easily attacked on the ground than through the air. In theory, this would be a game where we could possibly expect to see Los Angeles run the ball more than usual. In reality, this is a team coming off of an embarrassing loss and whose season is on the line. In spots like this, teams usually want to lean into their own strengths and know that if they go down, they will do it on their own terms. We saw something similar last week with the Bills, as they put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands, and had a pass-heavy attack against the Patriots despite New England’s top-three pass defense. 

Los Angeles passes at the fifth-highest rate in the league and plays at a top-10 situation-neutral pace. Despite the tough matchup and last week’s poor outing, we should expect the Chargers to “be who they are” and put the ball in Justin Herbert’s hands here. The returns of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and possibly Jalen Guyton mean this offense should operate at full strength with their season on the line. Brandon Staley is one of the sharper young coaches in the game and it is highly unlikely that he does anything other than riding his franchise QB as far as he will take him.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

While this game has a respectable total of 45.5, we always want to keep in mind the range of outcomes for a given game rather than just the raw number “Vegas” gives us. The Broncos have played 15 games this season and have only been a part of one game that combined for over 50 points (Week 6 vs. Las Vegas). There has only been one other game that went over the total for this week’s game, and nine times this season a Denver game has had 40 or less points scored. This is an important context to consider because the schemes and personnel of these teams are set up for Denver to control the game flow, even if they may not end up winning. Denver’s defense is well equipped to slow down the high volume, usually explosive Chargers passing offense. On the other side of the ball, Denver wants to control the game on the ground and the Chargers couldn’t even get stops against the league-worst run defense of the Texans (with backup offensive linemen, no less).

It wouldn’t be shocking for this game to approach (or even slightly surpass) the implied team and game totals, but Denver will be able to run the ball with success and string together long drives while also making things difficult for Los Angeles to move the ball quickly down the field, and making it difficult for them to score touchdowns (Denver has the fourth-best defense at preventing TD’s in the red zone). This makes it likely that if this game meets expectations, it will be a hard-earned journey that gets there at the end, while also making it likely that this game could significantly disappoint and finish with something like a 20-13 final score. There appears to be a much greater downside to the game flow than there is upside.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::