Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
15) at

Bears (
21.5)

Over/Under 36.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
28th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
22nd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
11th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
25th DVOA/31st Yards per pass

POSTED 12:30 PM EST ON THURSDAY

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324>>
  • This is a poor game environment.
  • Justin Fields had his two highest pass attempt games the last two weeks.
  • David Montgomery will likely be popular.
  • The Giants are planning on playing two QBs.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 4-11 Giants come into this game floundering at the end of a sad year. They got blown out again last week, failing to top ten points and playing two QBs. Quoting my Edge writeup last week: 

“The G-men fired their inept offensive coordinator midseason, lost Saquon Barkley for six weeks (he may never be the same), have a pack of glass figurines at WR, and placed Daniel Jones on the IR with a mysterious neck injury that wasn’t severe enough to drive him from the game in which he sustained it, but was bad enough to end his season.”

That all still holds true and adding to that, they’ve now seen Jake Fromm who looks like a player barely sticking around the NFL for a reason. Johnny Manziel retweeted fans asking if he’s available. Ouch.

This week, the G-men get a Bears defense that has been falling apart down the stretch, ranking 26th overall in DVOA. They sport a beatable 21st in DVOA against the run, and a poor 26th in DVOA against the pass. The Bears can be attacked coming and going. Fortunately for the Bears, the Giants are a mess. The G-men are currently floating the idea of playing both Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm at QB. They aren’t entirely sure about the play-calling either, as supposedly it will still mostly fall on Freddie Kitchens but will also have some collaborative elements. The Giants still play quickly (10th in situational neutral pace), but that could change if the coaching staff starts to “hide the QB.” Expect the Giants to keep flying by the seat of their pants and hoping for a miracle.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 5-10 Bears are eliminated from playoff contention and Matt Nagy might be a lame-duck coach. Earlier in the year, it was reported that his job was on the line if the Bears lost on Thanksgiving Day so it’s reasonable to think Nagy has the hottest seat in the NFL. Nagy’s seat is scorching for a reason. His defense grossly underperformed and his offense has looked inept, with Justin Fields showing limited development as an NFL quarterback. Allen Robinson has also been wasted. It’s easy to forget that A-Rob is only 28 years old and has never played with a good QB in a friendly passing scheme. Nagy has woefully used one of the purest talents at WR, and hopefully, Robinson will end up in a good spot before his career is over (imagine A-Rob on the Packers next to Adams?). 

The Giants defense has been thrashed on the ground (29th in DVOA) and through the air (31st in DVOA), presenting nothing but paths of least resistance. The Bears can attack in whatever manner they choose. The Bears stuck to the ground most of the year, but the past two weeks (after being eliminated from playoff contention), Nagy has been more aggressive, letting Fields throw 33/39 times, his two highest pass attempt games of the season. Fields isn’t certain to play, but if he does, expect Nagy to give him an opportunity to look good and possibly save his job for one more year.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a comically low total (37.5) because even though these are two of the worst defenses in the league, they are also two of the worst offenses. Bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and they aren’t made good just because they are playing a poor defense. Neither offense is sure of who is playing QB, and the Giants are spinning the idea of splitting time between two players. Expect both offenses to struggle with the game likely to be determined by a defensive TD.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • Lowest total on slate, 37.5
  • Total has moved down from 42
  • NYG games going over total: 5-9-1
  • CHI had lost 7 in a row up until last week: (vs MIN, @ GB, vs ARZ, @ DET, vs BAL, @ PIT, vs SF, @ TB) 
  • NYG have lost 4 in a row (@ PHI, vs DAL, @ LAC, @ MIA)
  • Pts scored last six: NYG (10, 6, 21, 9, 7, 10) // CHI (25, 9, 30, 22, 16, 13)

Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm:

  • Fromm last week: 6:17:25 yds:1 INT
  • He started but was benched for Mike Glennon
  • Glennon last week: 17:76:1 TD:1 INT
  • CHI allows 19.8 DK pts/g to QBs (7th most)
  • It’s unclear who will start as of Wed evening but both could get snaps

NYG Receiving:

  • Tgts from Fromm last week: Kadarius Toney (5) // Darius Slayton (4) // Kenny Golladay (3) // Engram, Cooper, Booker, Barkley (1 each)
  • Tgts from Glennon last week (mostly garbage time): Golladay (5) // Engram (3) // Toney (4) // Booker (3) // Slayton (1)
  • Over past 2 w/ Fromm & Glennon, no receiver has topped 53 yds in a game 
  • CHI allows the 13th most DK pts to WRs (36.6) & 

NYG Rushing:

  • Saquon Barkley played a season low 26 snaps last week 
  • He went 15:32 yds, 1:-4, 1 tgt
  • Devontae Booker played 41, most since Barkleys return WK 11
  • He went 6:27, 4:19, 4 tgts
  • Barkley DNP Wed and is Q
  • CHI allows 23.0 ppg to RBs (17th most) 

Justin Fields:

  • Fields didn’t play last week but was a LP Wed
  • 2-7 in games he’s started and finished 
  • Rushing: 7.7 rush atts/g // 5.8 yds/att // 35 yds/g
  • NYG allows the 5th least rush yds to QBs (14.1/g) & are T-2nd least atts/g (3.3)
  • Fields passing yds last 3 full games: (285, 224, 291)
  • NYG allows the 16th most DK pts/g to QBs (18.9)

CHI Receiving: 

  • Allen Robinson has missed the last 2
  • Tgts in those games: Montgomery (9, 6) // Mooney (9, 7) // Kmet (5, 9) // Byrd (3, 6) // Herbert (1, 4) // Graham (2, 2)
  • Mooney has seen tgts but hasn’t resulted in DK pts: (5:5, 9 tgts 10.9 pts) // (5:63, 7 tgts, 11.6 DK pts) // (1:19, 5 tgts, 2.9 pts) // (5:27, 7 tgts, 7.7 pts)
  • Cole Kmet has no TDs on the season
  • Jimmy Graham has 3 in the last 5
  • Kmet’s tgts last 5: (5, 9, 5, 7, 11)
  • Graham’s tgts last 5: (2, 2, 3, 1, 3)
  • NYGs allow the 6th most pts to RBs (37.5/g) & 16th most to TEs (12.9)

CHI Rushing:

  • Montgomery when receiving 20+ rush atts: (21:45:1 TD) // (21:90:1 TD) // (23:106:2 TDs) // (20:61)
  • $6.5k is a season high and $400 more than his previous season high
  • His price went up $800 from last week
  • Tgts last 4: (9, 6, 7, 9)
  • NYG allows the 8th most DK pts to RBs (26.4)
  • They allow 125.3 rush yds/g (7th most) & .8 rush TDs /g (T-7th most)