Kickoff Sunday, Jan 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Lions (
16) at

Hawks (
25)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
24th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
22nd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
19th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
11th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
21st DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
5th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
31st DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
12th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>
  • Both teams are dead in the water, giving this game some unpredictability.
  • Seattle is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Nick Foles-led Bears in Week 16.
  • Detroit has been playing very well recently compared to their “doormat” reputation. 
  • Both teams are conservative by nature and have been involved in a lot of low-scoring games recently.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Despite a near league-worst record, the Lions have been playing well and been very competitive for the last two months. In November and December, the Lions went 2-4-1 with three of the four losses coming by four or fewer points (their only big loss was a 38-10 stomping in Denver). This is a very winnable game for the Lions and, as a team who has realistically been “out of it” for weeks already, they should come in fired up and ready to play as Dan Campbell has done a great job having his team ready to play in year one as the head coach.

The level of Detroit’s aggressiveness will likely rely in large part on the availability of Jared Goff, who missed Week 16 due to COVID protocols and is now highly questionable due to a knee strain. If Goff misses, Tim Boyle should draw his third start of the year. Boyle had a poor game against Cleveland in Week 11 but looked serviceable and adequate in a tight loss to Atlanta last week. D’Andre Swift is practicing in full and will almost certainly return after a four-week absence. In his absence, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in four consecutive games. During that time, St. Brown has operated with a 6.6 aDOT (143rd out of 180 wide receivers who have seen a target) and runs 65% of his routes out of the slot. Whether it is Goff or Boyle behind center, St. Brown and Swift are likely to be heavily involved in the short area as the best and most consistent playmakers the Lions have (it also helps that they are first and second year players that the team will want to build around going forward). Seattle is attacked more easily through the air, due to their 28th ranked DVOA pass defense, but Detroit isn’t that good at passing the ball to where they will lean into that to a severe degree. Detroit will still run the ball for a balanced attack, and will likely give carries to three running backs as Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds will stay involved on some level. The Lions should be able to move the ball well enough to put some points on the board and stay competitive, as they have been for the majority of the year against non-elite competition.

How Seattle Will Try to win ::

While Russell Wilson’s finger injury will likely get the majority of the blame for how things turned out in Seattle this year, the reality is the Seahawks are 4-8 in games that Wilson has started and they have disappointed in basically every facet of the game over the course of the season. The coaching staff and front office’s reluctance to lean into a full change to their identity has left them as a rudderless ship that is just below average at everything. Their defense is not very good and is beatable in a variety of ways. Their offense does not have a power running game or any semblance of consistency, yet they also have not embraced playing with tempo or creative play-calling to take advantage of their high-end personnel in the passing game. The best teams in the league have a clear identity and that identity is built around the talents of their best players, the Seahawks have failed miserably in achieving this and the results should not be surprising to anyone.

The Lions have had a solid defense for most of the year, with a few spots where they completely caved in and teams went off – which is what has caused them to rank so poorly in a variety of defensive metrics. In reality, the Lions have been very solid at containing opponents and keeping games close. They have had three games in their last eight where teams scored 27 or more points. Two of those games were against Philadelphia and Denver (44 and 38 points respectively), two teams who pounded them into submission with their running games and physically dominated the Lions. The other instance was a 29-27 win over the Vikings, where the Vikings struggled to move the ball efficiently until they became very aggressive late in a game they were trailing. What this is telling us is the Lions actively work to take away explosive downfield passing and make teams work to matriculate the ball down the field. The Seahawks have become more pass-heavy recently, but they are mostly built to take shots down the field which the Lions should be prepared for. The Seahawks have had a better running game with Rashaad Penny in the backfield, but are not on the level of the teams who bludgeoned the Lions on the ground. Basically, we should expect a standard game plan from the Seahawks (who have yet to show a creative approach this year) that results in moderate offensive success that is unlikely to be explosive or allow them to separate on the scoreboard.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Lions have held five of their last seven opponents under 20 points. Now facing a Seattle team that barely runs over 50 offensive plays in a given week, it seems most likely that this game is a low-scoring, moderate-to-low play volume type of game. Both teams and coaches tend to keep games close and try to win in the 4th quarter. This game is likely to have a lot of long drives and field goals, as both teams project to be able to move the ball and sustain drives but neither has proven to be overly efficient in converting yards to points. Given the moderate to low pace that we should expect, along with moderate pass volume, this game will need something big to spark it. Due to the lack of efficiency or explosive plays from either team (the Lions don’t have the personnel for big plays and the Detroit defensive philosophy will deter it from Seattle), it is likely that this game stays close throughout and comes down to a couple of 4th quarter drives to decide it.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Sixth lowest total
  • DET’s implied total of 17.75 is the seventh lowest
  • DET ranks tied for third in ATS record (10-5)
  • They’ve scored 20+ pts three times this season, twice in the past four weeks and in Week 1
  • Their 17.3 ppg ranks fourth lowest
  • 43.2% red zone TD rate is the lowest
  • DET’s 25.7 ppg allowed is the eighth highest in the league
  • Their 69.4% red zone TD rate allowed is the second highest
  • SEA’s point totals in the past four weeks: 30 // 33 // 10 // 24
  • On the season, their 62.2% red zone TD rate ranks seventh
  • Their 20.5 ppg allowed ranks eighth lowest
  • 49.1% red zone TD rate allowed is the third lowest
  • Neither team is alive in the playoff race
  • Per numberFire, DET ranks 25th in adjusted seconds per play (30.7) and 31st in adjusted pass rate (50.9%)
  • SEA ranks seventh in adjusted seconds per play (28.8) and 19th in adjusted pass rate (56.3%)

Jared Goff

  • Returned from COVID earlier this week
  • Missed Wednesday’s practice due to a knee injury, for which he is considered “day to day”
  • Ranks 29th in PFF passing grade
  • TDs in the past four games: 2 // 3 // 1 // 3
  • DK log in the past four games: 13.84 // 21.94 // 12.6 // 20.64
  • Week 17 DK salary of $5,400 matches a season high
  • Scored 20+ DK pts two other times: 20.44 @ GB in Week 2 // 32.92 vs. SF in Week 1
  • In relief of Goff last week, Timothy Boyle managed 10.48 DK pts @ ATL
  • SEA ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.7)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Matthew Stafford 20.5 // Davis Mills 21.04 // Colt McCoy 25.92 // Kirk Cousins 28.12

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Amon-Ra St. Brown 72.1% // Kalif Raymond 71.4% // Brock Wright 45.8% // Josh Reynolds 39.8% // Shane Zylstra 31.2%
  • Target share: St. Brown 18.7% // Raymond 12.6% // Reynolds 8.8% // Wright 2.9% // Zylstra 1.3%
  • St. Brown is one of just five WRs with at least eight targets in every game in the last month (per TJ Hernandez)
  • He had 12, 12, 11, and 11 targets over that span
  • Among qualified WRs during that time, St. Brown ranked third in overall targets, fourth in receiving yards, 16th in total air yards, fourth in target share, 18th in air yard market share, and fifth in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 22.4 DK ppg during those weeks ranked eighth
  • His DK salary has risen $1,600 since the start of that stretch to a season high of $6,000 in Week 17
  • St. Brown has scored 20+ DK pts three times in 14 games: 23.5 vs. ARI in Week 15 // 24.8 vs. MIN in Week 13 // 26 @ ATL in Week 16
  • Raymond has scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($3,800) twice in 12 games: 19.6 @ CHI in Week 4 // 20.6 @ LAR in Week 7
  • Reynolds has scored 15+ DK pts twice in five games as a Lion: 16 vs. CHI in Week 12 // 18.8 vs. ARI in Week 15
  • SEA ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.4)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Zach Pascal 20.3 // Brandin Cooks 21.1 // Julio Jones 21.8 // Justin Jefferson 29.8 // Robert Woods 30 // Cooper Kupp 37.7 // Deebo Samuel 38.7
  • Wright has hit double digit DK pts once, 10.8 vs. MIN in Week 13
  • Zylstra has yet to score 5 DK pts
  • SEA ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (15.6)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Jimmy Graham 11 // Brevin Jordan 12.6 // Pat Freiermuth 12.8 // Dan Arnold 14.8 // Tyler Conklin 20 // Zach Ertz 28.8 // George Kittle 42.6

DET RBs

  • D’Andre Swift has practiced in full this week and is expected to play
  • Snap share: Craig Reynolds 50.3% // Swift 50.2% // Jamaal Williams 27.9%
  • Target share: Swift 13.4% // Williams 4.6% // Reynolds 1.3%
  • Touches per game: Reynolds 18 // Swift 17.8 // Williams 13.7
  • Among qualified RBs, Swift ranks 13th in rush share, 18th in goal line share, second in target share, second in WOPR, and fifth in RBOPR
  • His 17.8 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • His Week 17 DK salary ($6,000) is tied for his second lowest cost on the season
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times in 11 games: 22.4 @ MIN in Week 5 // 23.7 vs. BAL in Week 3 // 24.4 vs. SF in Week 1 // 15.6 @ CLE in Week 11 // 28.4 @ LAR in Week 7
  • Reynolds has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Williams hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since Week 1 vs. SF (25)
  • SEA ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs (30.7)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 24.7 // Alexander Mattison 26.1 // Antonio Gibson 26.6 // AJ Dillon 26.8 // Alvin Kamara 36.9 // Derrick Henry 50.7

Russell Wilson

  • Ranks 23rd in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for seventh in YPA (7.6) and first in ADoT (10.2)
  • Lowest TD% (5.2%) in the past five seasons
  • Career low in rushing attempts per game (2.75)
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($6,200) twice in 12 games: 26.32 vs. TEN in Week 2 // 27.06 @ IND in Week 1
  • DET ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.5)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Lamar Jackson 20.28 // Joe Burrow 23.84 // Kirk Cousins 24.2 // Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Matthew Stafford 30.16

SEA Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DK Metcalf 83.7% // Tyler Lockett 81.5% // Gerald Everett 63.2% // Freddie Swain 62.4% // Will Dissly 56.2% // Dee Eskridge 24.4%
  • Target share: Metcalf 24.8% // Lockett 22.5% // Everett 12.5% // Swain 8.4% // Dissly 5.7% // Eskridge 3.9%
  • Among qualified WRs, Metcalf ranks 13th in target share, 10th in air yard market share, and 11th in WOPR
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($6,500), or close enough, twice in 15 games: 25.7 @ MIN in Week 3 // 26.8 vs. LAR in Week 5
  • Lockett ranks 15th in target share, fourth in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • Scored 4x his Week 17 DK salary ($6,400) four times in 14 games: 29 @ IND in Week 1 // 29.2 vs. JAX in Week 8 // 30.2 @ HOU in Week 14 // 34.8 vs. TEN @ Week 2
  • Swain has scored 20+ DK pts once (21 vs. TEN in Week 2)
  • Eskridge has yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • DET ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (34.5)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Darnell Mooney 20.5 // Mooney 21.5 // Justin Jefferson 22.4 // Davante Adams 23.1 // Christian Kirk 24.4 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Dissly missed Week 16 on the COVID list, but he’s since been reactivated
  • He’s yet to score double digit DK pts
  • Everett has scored double digit DK pts in seven out of 13 games: 10 @ IND in Week 1 // 10 @ LAR in Week 15 // 10.4 @ MIN in Week 3 // 10.8 @ HOU in Week 14 // 14.3  @ GB in Week 10 // 14.7 @ WAS in Week 12 // 16.8 vs. CHI in Week 16
  • His $4,100 Week 17 DK salary is a season high
  • DET ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (14.5)
  • 12 opposing TEs have scored double digit DK pts vs. DET
  • Just two have scored 4x Everett’s Week 17 salary: Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

SEA RBs

  • Seasonal snap share: Alex Collins 29.8% // Rashaad Penny 24.3% // DeeJay Dallas 18.2%
  • Target share: Dallas 5.2% // Collins 2.3% // Penny 1.1%
  • Touches per game: Collins 10.6 // Penny 9.4 // Dallas 3.5
  • Penny has led the backfield in touches in each of the past four weeks: 11 // 17 // 13 // 17
  • Among qualified RBs in those four weeks, Penny ranked 11th in rush share, 14th in goal line share, and 14th in RBOPR
  • His 16.5 DK ppg in that time ranked 13th
  • His Week 17 DK salary is $6,100 (a career high)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in eight games this year: 29.8 @ HOU in Week 14 // 22.5 vs. CHI in Week 16
  • Collins has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Dallas has yet to score 15 DK pts
  • DET ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (27.7)
  • Nine opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. DET: Najee Harris 20.3 // Javonte Williams 21.3 // Alexander Mattison 21.4 // Nick Chubb 25.4 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Melvin Gordon 26.1 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Mattison 30.3 // Aaron Jones 41.5