XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 13 begins with the Bills visiting the Patriots for a 43.5 total game with Buffalo favored by 5. The total here initially felt low to me as these teams are combining for 49.8 points per game on offense this season, but they are also only allowing 36.5 opposing points per game, so the total sits right in the middle of those numbers, creating an interesting game environment in which two good offenses meet up with two good defenses and we could see this game go several different directions. Let’s explore.

New England

On the Patriots side, Damien Harris is injured once again and looks likely to miss, leaving Rhamondre Stevenson in an extremely strong role. In games that Harris has either missed or barely played (25% or fewer of the snaps), Rhamondre is averaging over 80% of the snaps to go along with 15.3 carries and a whopping 6.3 targets. The matchup here is not a friendly one as Buffalo ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA, but frankly nobody’s matchup in this game is going to be a good one: the Bills are also 7th in pass defense DVOA, while the Patriots are 9th in run defense and 3rd in pass defense. On the whole, these are the number two and number three defenses by DVOA on the season (Dallas is number one). When we talk about matchups, the reason is that we’re looking for the easiest paths of attack, but in this game there really aren’t any easy paths of attack, and so I’m looking for players who have a combination of role and talent that can get them there despite the difficult matchup. Rhamondre is one of those, with his pass game role being one of the best of any running back in the NFL – importantly, he is being schemed targets to get him the ball in space, he isn’t just getting dump-offs when Mac Jones is under pressure. He’s one of the strongest options on the slate and is probably the strongest overall on-paper play on the Patriots. Behind him, we can expect to see Kevin Harris and/or Pierre Strong in a small backup role that will likely not be relevant unless Rhamondre gets injured. Watch J.J. Taylor’s status, though – if he’s elevated from the practice squad, he might be the next guy in line as neither Harris nor Strong seems to have established themselves in the minds of the New England coaching staff.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker are both listed as questionable (as of Tuesday morning) but seeing as how they both played in Week 12, both finished the game, and both got in limited practices on Monday, I’m assuming they’re playing. This should give the Patriots their normal wide receiver group of Meyers, Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton. When healthy, Meyers has been the clear alpha here, leading the team in snaps, targets, and receptions. Meyers primarily runs out of the slot on high-completion routes and so can be viewed as having the safest floor amongst the Patriots pass catchers, and his price of $7,200 is very reasonable. Past him, we get into murkier territory, though there is a fairly wide gulf between Parker and the rest in terms of snaps; the gap gets wider when you look at production. Parker also likely sees the toughest coverage with Tre’Davious White back. Nelson Agholor seems to have the next most secure role, then Bourne (who has only exceeded 50% of the snaps when one of the other wide receivers missed time), then Thornton. At the risk of seeming boring and obvious, this is how I would rank them: Meyers, Parker, Agholor, Bourne, Thornton, with the latter two being relegated to “MME punt option” as low-volume receivers in an extremely challenging matchup. At tight end, Jonnu Smith’s role had appeared to be heading upward until last week when he played just 29% of the snaps (matching his lowest total on the season) to Hunter Henry’s 71%. Of note here is that Week 12 represented the lowest combined total of tight end snaps the Patriots have played in any game on the season (i.e. no heavy personnel sets), but I expect that to rebound here to get Mac Jones some extra blocking support against a really tough Buffalo pass rush. While Jonnu has some risk of being used mainly as a blocker, he’s athletic with the ball in his hands, people may shy away after he didn’t see a target last week, and he’s only $1,400, making him a solid tournament option in my mind. Henry fits in around the wide receiver cluster, and while I would personally rank him behind Parker and Agholor, it’s only slightly; his receiving role is very similar in terms of volume, he just lacks the same kind of per-catch upside as the two wideouts.

Buffalo

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game has a wide range of outcomes.
• The primary offensive pieces in both passing games are underpriced.
• The Falcons run the ball more than any team in the league.
• This game is likely to have too low ownership for its potential upside.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The 4-7 Steelers come into Week 13 off a narrow home win against the Colts. Down three games in their division and three games from the last AFC wildcard spot, the Steelers are only playing for the silliest stat in football, “Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.” Tomlin has always been one of the league’s worst coaches, propped up by the Steelers laundry list of Hall-of-Fame coordinators (Tomlin has never called plays on either side of the ball), the best GM in football (recently retired Kevin Colbert), and extremely talented rosters (check out the Steelers draft classes the past 20 years) during his tenure. While most coaches come into a poor situation (the previous coach was fired), Tomlin inherited a team with a young Hall-of-Fame QB and an elite defense from a retiring Bill Cowher who was one year removed from winning the Superbowl. Going 8-8 with immense talent shouldn’t be considered a victory (coaches should be judged by how they perform against their team’s Vegas win total), but “never had a losing season” means a lot to Tomlin and he’s going to have the Steelers playing hard to finish the season.

The Steelers play somewhat quickly (11^th overall in pace) but would like to play slower (16^th situation neutral pace) and have been frequently forced to speed up later in games when they are chasing points (8^th in second half pace). The Steelers pace doesn’t tell us much about their offense since they are essentially middle of the road in most situations, with the caveat that they will run more no-huddle if they are losing late in a game.

The Falcons have been pasted through the air (29^th in DVOA) and demolished on the ground (25^th in DVOA). As noted in prior Falcons Edge writeups, defense coordinator Dean Pees runs one of the most complicated defenses in football that often relies on few down linemen. Pees’ system has created a weakness in stopping the run due to the scheme, and a weakness in stopping the pass due to personnel. The Steelers O-line hasn’t been good overall (23^rd ranked by PFF) but they have been strong pass blockers (8^th in pass blocking efficiency) and they are facing a Falcons team that generates almost no rush (2^nd lowest pressure rate), which means Kenny Pickett should have a clean pocket. Unfortunately, the Steelers offense is being run by Matt Canada who might be more inept than Tomlin. Their WR route trees consist of curl routes, go routes, and slants. Irrational coaches are harder to predict, and even though it makes sense for the Steelers to come out passing, it’s likely they try and stay balanced unless forced to be more aggressive.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The curious case of the Broncos – Denver surrenders the third fewest points per game but they are stuck in some sort of twisted alternate reality on offense, scoring just 14.3 points per game (the fewest in the league).
• The Ravens play at a slow pace with elevated rush rates behind heavy personnel alignments (like, almost 100% of their snaps over the past three games have come from either 21- or 12-personnel), and four different ball carriers are expected to see work while no pass-catcher outside of Mark Andrews is expected to see more than 65-70% of the offensive snaps.
• Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews is always GPP-viable for the upside the pairing provides, but it’s more likely that no player returns GPP-viability than it is for that pairing to hit here. Basically, consider Jackson + Andrews or consider fading this one.
• I’m writing this one up early in the week before the first practice reports are released (early Wednesday morning) so check in on the injury reports from each team as the week progresses.  That said, the primary unknowns currently appear to be Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler from the Broncos, each of whom is unlikely to sway the likeliest scenarios laid out below.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett has truly been one of the worst game planners and managers this season, somehow riding a top-five defense backward through time to a 3-8 record. Typically, teams with elite defenses are able to play at slower paces with elevated rush rates, but the ineptitude of the Denver offense has forced Hackett into the eighth fastest first half pace of play, tenth fastest situation neutral pace of play, and second fastest pace of play when trailing by seven or more points. Furthermore, poor offensive line play and the season ending injury to electric running back Javonte Williams have forced additional pressure on a Denver pass offense that has struggled to adapt to a quarterback that doesn’t like throwing into pressure, with wide receivers that struggle to separate. We also finally saw emotions boil over last week, with defensive tackle Mike Purcell yelling at quarterback Russell Wilson as he came off the field in an embarrassing loss. Not only that, but reports have surfaced pretty much all season regarding Russell Wilson’s leadership, or lack thereof. Former Seattle teammates bashed the quarterback for his recluse-like leadership, which has come to light once again in Denver with the quarterback reportedly “losing the locker room.” Yea, not great, Bob.

Eight. That’s the number of backs that have seen offensive snaps for the Broncos this season. To say their run game has been tumultuous is a vast understatement, quite honestly. The team started the season with high hopes behind a backfield tandem in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon but has been left with a backfield consisting of three practice squad elevations after Williams suffered a season-ending injury and Melvin Gordon fumbled his way off the roster. Mike Boone, who started the season third on the depth chart, hit the injured reserve after Week 7. Chase Edmonds was brought in from Miami and promptly hit the injured reserve with an ankle injury, leaving the team with practice squad signee Latavius Murray, fullback Andrew Beck, practice squad signee Marlon Mack, and Devine Ozigbo, who was signed to the active roster prior to Week 12 only to be waived on Monday following the game. In the embarrassing 23-10 loss to the Panthers, Murray played a whopping 82% snap rate, carrying 13 times for 92 yards and catching his only target for six yards. Expect another hefty yet inefficient workload for the veteran back this week considering the state of the Denver backfield, charged with overcoming a poor run-blocking offensive line against the third-ranked rush defense by yards allowed per carry. Murray has never been known as a high-target running back, but at least the Broncos have filtered 85 targets to the position this season, tied for the sixth most in the league. The pure rushing matchup yields a below average 4.29 net-adjusted line yards metric and 3.94 average yards per carry.

Earlier in the season, I theorized that Russ’ struggles through the air could be a case of his pass-catchers failing to separate, considering Russ has been graced with athletic pass-catchers that generate their own separation throughout his career. It’s probably still too early to tell if that is a contributing factor to this offense’s struggles, but it seems to be holding water. Courtland Sutton currently ranks 78^th in the league in average separation at target and 63^rd in the league in average cushion. Jerry Jeudy currently ranks 94^th in the league in average separation at target and 66^th in average cushion. K.J. Hamler does not have the requisite snaps or routes run to qualify but has been equally as bad, while Kendall Hinton and Greg Dulcich lead the team in both metrics. It’s actually quite remarkable that Denver pass-catchers have a combined two games over 100-yards receiving, which came via Jeudy in Week 1 and Sutton in Week 2. The Denver pass-catching corps is also banged up as Jeudy and Hamler have been out of the lineup since Week 8 (Jeudy hurt his ankle after one snap in Week 10 following the team’s Week 9 bye). We don’t yet know the respective statuses of Jeudy and Hamler, who would each likely re-enter the starting lineup should they return from extended absences, but it appears likely we see Kendall Hinton see another game of increased involvement either way considering the lack of depth at the position. The team has primarily shifted to a heavy-based offense through the injuries at wide receiver, with Greg Dulcich, Eric Tomlinson, and Eric Saubert combining to form an offense based out of 12-personnel over the previous three weeks. All Denver pass-catchers have struggled against man coverage this season, a coverage scheme the Ravens play at an above-average rate behind a defensive front that now blitzes at a below average rate, instead electing to generate organic pressure up front utilizing a hybrid 4-3 front.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Justin Fields started the week with a limited practice before getting in a full session on Thursday – looks like he will make his return from a one-game absence with his shoulder injury.
• Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a right thumb (throwing hand) avulsion fracture and rib injury that forced him out of Week 12’s contest in the second half. He started the week as a non-participant before being upgraded to a limited session Thursday.
• Rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs returned to practice for the first time in over four weeks on Wednesday.
• Darnell Mooney suffered a season-ending ankle injury that required surgery last week, leaving the Bears thin at wide receiver.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers continue their disappointing season with a Week 13 visit to Soldier Fields to take on the rebuilding Bears, who are expecting to get their dynamic quarterback back from a one-game absence. Aaron Rodgers was forced from last week’s game with a rib injury following a sack taken in the third quarter, and he did not practice on Wednesday before getting in a limited session on Thursday. He is also still dealing with an avulsion fracture to his thumb on his throwing hand. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Rodgers to play so we’ll write up the remainder of this game as if he plays and include some caveats should Jordan Love draw the start down below. Aaron Rodgers leads the offense with the slowest pace in the league, routinely waiting until the play clock reaches its final tick before snapping the football. They have paired this with a bottom 10 pass rate over expectation (PROE) value and slightly below average 58.89% overall pass rate to run only 61.4 offensive plays per game. Their average time of possession is down over two minutes per game compared to last season, which can be summed up via a 22^nd-ranked net drive success rate. Green Bay continues to run an offense based primarily from 11-personnel, with around 10% of their offensive snaps run from 21- and 12-personnel over the previous two games. I’d expect that to remain similar considering Doubs appears likely to return this week. Electric defensive back Darnell Savage was forced from the team’s Week 12 contest and has yet to practice this week, which could be an issue for a defense that utilizes heavy rates of prevent zone coverages – coverages that require increased communication and cohesion along the back side.

Aaron Jones maintains his status as the lead back for the Packers, handling 66% or more of the offensive snaps in five of the last six games. That said, typically the team likes to get A.J. Dillon involved after the first drive in games they are able to find success on the ground, which is likely to be the case against the Bears. The Green Bay offensive line remains one of the league’s top units this season, even through significant turnover and injuries, making it likelier Dillon is able to amass meaningful touches this week, particularly considering the injuries to Aaron Rodgers. The matchup on the ground yields a robust 4.78 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Chicago defense ceding 4.83 yards per running back carry on the season. Finally, while Aaron Jones is the clear lead back in this offense, his 62.7% snap rate ranks just 17^th in the league and he has seen just one goal line carry all season.

Rookie wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have not been healthy in the same game since Week 4, meaning we can’t be entirely sure how the team will spread the available wide receiver snaps amongst the two behind clear lead wideout Allen Lazard, but I would tentatively expect head coach Matt LaFleur to mix things up this week. Watson has played 80% or more of the offensive snaps in each of the previous three weeks alongside Lazard while Doubs played 82% or more of the offensive snaps for six straight weeks prior to getting injured. Watson is the most athletic of the bunch and Lazard’s role is somewhat cemented, making it likely we see Doubs mix into the slot rotation with aging veteran Randall Cobb. Either way, we can’t expect a ton of individual volume from any pass-catcher here considering the matchup, Rodgers’ injuries, the low overall volume from the offense, and the reintegration of Romeo Doubs, leaving fantasy viability in the realms of efficiency and touchdowns.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• D’Andre Swift has been removed from the Lions injury report for the first time since Week 1.
• Guard Evan Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell missed practice on Wednesday for the Lions, while guard Jonah Jackson is attempting to make his way through the league’s concussion protocol – this is important to this matchup, which we’ll get into below.
• Travis Etienne was listed as a limited participant on Wednesday. Head coach Doug Pederson earlier stated that Etienne “has a chance to play this weekend” when asked about his status after Etienne failed to finish the team’s Week 12 game with a foot injury, which doesn’t really tell us much. Pay attention to his status in practice as the week progresses.
• A game consisting of two teams in the bottom six in defensive drive success rate allowed and top eight in offensive drive success rate.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars have played at a top 12 pace of play in almost every situational split outside of when leading by seven or more points, during which they completely flip the script and play at a bottom two pace which makes sense. Their pass rate over expectation (PROE) lands right at league average and their overall pass rate sits just below league average. The biggest change this season has been the coaching staff, as Doug Pederson has long been known as a player’s coach, one that is very good at getting his team ready for the upcoming opponent. Furthermore, Pederson is a coach that tends to tailor his gameplan to what the opponent gives them, which has translated to only one loss all season by more than eight points (as in, the Jaguars have lost to only the Chiefs by more than one possession this season). And since they have been largely reactive in their game management, that has also kept this team from many shootouts this season.

The Jaguars backfield is one to keep an eye on as far as injuries go throughout the week as Travis Etienne has handled a robust workload since the team dealt away James Robinson at the trade deadline, seeing 78% or more of the offensive snaps in each healthy game since Week 7. Furthermore, de facto change of pace back JaMycal Hasty handled a robust 78% of the offensive snaps after Etienne left with a foot injury last week. Darrell Henderson was claimed off waivers from the Rams prior to Week 12 and should eventually fill the second running back role for the Jaguars once he’s had time to get the offense down, which may or may not be the case in his first full week of practice with the organization. Etienne’s level of practice participation should be telling as Pederson reported that the back could have returned to last week’s game, but they didn’t want to risk further injury, indicating to me that he should be thought of as a full-go if he returns to full practice at any point this week. Since the Jaguars have been largely reactive in their game management this season, there is a path to a massive workload for the lead back against a Lions team that has been gashed by opposing backfields to the tune of 4.77 yards allowed per running back carry. Furthermore, we’ve seen Etienne amass elite workloads in games the Jaguars have controlled over the previous five weeks, with as many as 30 running back opportunities during that time. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly above average 4.42 net-adjusted line yards metric while Jacksonville backs have overperformed their offensive line’s blocking metrics by the largest margin of any team in the league this season.

Continuing the evidence towards a reactive game management stance, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has two games with 23 pass attempts or fewer and four games with 40 pass attempts or more this season, leaving him with one of the wider ranges of potential outcomes as far as volume goes of any quarterback on the slate (or league, for that matter). Furthermore, both of the games with 23 pass attempts or fewer came in one possession losses, so it’s not as simple as “the Jaguars will open up their offense when forced to.” If the run game is working and if the Jaguars are not forced into increased aerial aggression early in the game, the team will simply continue looking to exploit whatever the opponent is giving them. The team has played primarily from 11-personnel this season unless their opponent allows them to bias their attack towards the ground, during which they have shown a propensity to mix in increased rates of 12-personnel via increased snap rates for blocking tight end Chris Manhertz. Finally, the target distribution amongst the top four pass-catchers has been largely spread out, with Christian Kirk leading the way with a 27.4% targets per route run rate and 24.5% team target market share (WR2 numbers, for context).  

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Deshaun Watson’s return to the NFL will draw far more attention to this game than you would expect for two teams with a combined 5-16-1 record.
• Both teams have bottom-tier rushing defenses and offenses built around their running games.
• Cleveland has personnel advantages on both sides of the ball and has been much better this year than their 4-7 record indicates.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns have stayed true to themselves this season, leaning heavily on their running game and playing at a moderate pace for the duration of the season with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback. The Browns have the 5th lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL this year and rank 26th in the NFL in situation-neutral pace of play. This team has long been built on its running game and offensive line and has continued to lean on those strengths whenever possible. The debut of Deshaun Watson in a Browns uniform will be intriguing to watch, and it remains to be seen if the Browns will shift to a more aggressive and pass-centric approach with a premier signal caller under center.

For this week’s matchup, the Browns face a bottom-of-the-barrel Texans run defense that should fit nicely for Watson’s return after nearly two years without playing a regular season snap (his last game was in January of 2021). The Texans rank 31st in run defense DVOA by Football Outsiders and 29th in yards per carry allowed. The film junkies agree with the numbers, as PFF grades the Texans defense 30th in run defense and 29th in tackling. The Browns should open up with a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and some Kareem Hunt mixed in while exposing the Texans on the intermediate and deep levels of the field in the passing game through play-action concepts and using Watson’s strength as a deep passer to take some shots downfield. The Browns offense will likely open up significantly in the next few weeks down the stretch of the season, but this week may not be the time when we see them fully unleash things as the Texans run defense will let Watson dust off the rust and pick his spots. The Texans pass defense is nothing to fear either and ranks poorly as well, making it likely that the Browns passing game should have efficiency and success through the air, even if volume is hard to find.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW>>

• Christian Darrisaw missed practice to begin the week with his second concussion in two weeks, which is likely to keep him out of action in Week 13.
• Michael Carter missed practice on Wednesday for the Jets with a low ankle sprain that forced him from last week’s game against the Bears – head coach Robert Saleh called his absence “maintenance,” insinuating that he is likely to play this week.
• Mike White drew the start for the Jets last week after Zach Wilson was made a healthy inactive – there have been no reports indicating a change to the quarterback situation moving forward from New York.
• A large piece of this game will be decided by how the Jets choose to run coverages against one of the most elite wide receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson.

How New York Will Try To Win ::

The recipe for the 7-4 Jets has remained fairly consistent this season – disrupt opposing drives via a lockdown defense (top five in all efficiency metrics, heavy zone concepts, organic pressure), manage the game environment through a balanced offense and slow-to-moderate pace, and try not to lose the game on offense. After starting the season with an underperforming defense that forced the Jets into increased aerial aggression over the first four weeks, the Jets have not had a single game with higher than league average offensive plays run from scrimmage over their last seven games.  During that stretch, their defense has held opponents to just 14.4 points per game. That included games against Buffalo and Miami while the other six games were against teams in the bottom half of the league in scoring (NEx2, DEN, GB, PIT, and CHI without Fields). This week presents one of their more difficult challenges against Minnesota, particularly considering Justin Jefferson has absolutely demolished zone coverage this season to the tune of an 83.6% reception rate, 720 yards receiving, and two scores.

The ground game comes with uncertainty due to the expected level of involvement of lead back Michael Carter. That said, no back has seen more than 56% of the offensive snaps for the Jets since Breece Hall went down with a season-ending ACL tear, leaving us with a good idea of the kind of upside (or lack thereof) any Jets back carries this week. The Jets backfield has combined to average 27 running back opportunities over the previous four games (since Hall’s injury), which should be thought to be split at least two ways, more likely three considering rookie Zonovan Knight saw his opportunities at the expense of recent addition James Robinson last week, the latter of whom was ruled a healthy inactive. As in, expect the lead back (whether Carter, Robinson, or Knight) to handle around 50% of the offensive snaps, with the rest likely split up between the other two healthy/active backs. The pure rushing matchup yields a well below-average 4.175 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Minnesota defense holding opposing backs to just 3.76 yards per carry this year.

First off, Elijah Moore’s fall from grace (both in his performance this season and the graces of his teammates and coaching staff) has been difficult to watch as a fan of his talent, but the reality of the situation has meant Moore has not cracked a modest 66% snap rate since Week 4. That has left rookie Garret Wilson as the lone near every-down pass-catcher on this offense, with Corey Davis returning from injury in Week 12 to a 68% snap rate and Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims combining with Moore for the remainder of the wide receiver snaps. Primary pass-catching tight end Tyler Conklin has been between 68% and 81% snap rates in every game since Week 3, with the team increasing their 12-personnel rates to the 40-55% range since their Week 10 bye through the increased utilization of blocking tight end C.J. Uzomah. Considering the current state of the pass-catching options on the team, I would tentatively expect the increased rates of 12-personnel to continue here as it appears to be a concerted effort by the coaching staff to change the dynamics of their offense. Finally, while the team appeared to open things up through the air last week based on a quick glance at the box scores, they ran a league average 63 offensive plays from scrimmage but mustered only 28 pass attempts. This is very much still a team that would like to control the time of possession and dictate the game environment through moderate pace and elevated rush rates.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both teams rank in the bottom seven in pass rate over expectation.
• The Giants hold the league’s fifth highest overall rush rate while the Commanders rank 11^th.
• The Commanders boast a stout run defense while the Giants have been gashed on the ground.
• The Giants have generated the fewest explosive plays this season while the Commanders surprisingly rank top ten in both explosive rush rate and explosive pass rate.
• Both of these teams have willed their way to a winning record and current playoff spot (Giants sit in the sixth seed and the Commanders sit in the seventh seed).
• This game is about as close to a must-win for each of these teams as can be for a Week 13 game, with the winner likely in control of their own destiny for a playoff berth.
• The Giants sit at 7-4 and the Commanders sit at 7-5, yet both teams have a negative point differential.
• The Giants rank 22^nd in scoring while the Commanders rank 24^th.
  Both teams surprisingly rank in the top half of the league in red zone touchdown rate allowed, with the Giants at fifth at just 48.84% (36.00% at home) and the Commanders at 13^th at 53.85%.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

For all the things that head coach Ron Rivera is not, he is still one of the better game planners in the league. As in, he’s highly adept at getting his team ready for their specific opponent on a weekly basis. The biggest problem for Rivera and his coaching staff is they are hot garbage at adapting during the game. Basically, when the Commanders are afforded the opportunity to execute their game plan coming into a game, they perform fairly well. When they are pushed to adjust mid-game, look out. Washington has built their identity around their defense and backfield, dialing up downfield shots and generating explosive runs through a dynamic run-blocking scheme. The biggest problems for the Commanders have been with their current quarterback situation and a lack of explosiveness from lead back Brian Robinson, whose workload is highly reliant on game flow. That said, it is going to take a lot to shake Washington away from elevated rush rates and a modest pace of play.

The Washington backfield has devolved into a true timeshare between Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, with Robinson likelier to see more snaps in a positive game script, and Gibson likelier to see more snaps in back-and-forth games and in a negative game script. Both backs rank near the bottom of the league in explosive rush rate and true yards per carry, but their stout defense has allowed them to largely stick to a run-balanced approach in most games this season. Keep an eye on the status of Gibson as the week progresses as he was limited to start the week with a foot injury. The pure rushing matchup yields a slightly above average 4.48 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Giants defense allowing a robust 5.20 yards per running back carry this season.

Wide receiver Terry McLaurin is clearly the top option on this team. That said, he has seen double-digit targets just once all season, has surpassed 100 yards receiving three times, and has scored only two touchdowns. His 21.4% targets per route run rate ranks 52^nd amongst qualifying wide receivers, and his 22.4% team target market share falls well below elite levels (31^st). What should be considered a positive for his fantasy outlook is the fact that McLaurin has seen the second most deep targets this season (22). What the field is likely to miss is the fact that McLaurin’s snap rate has taken a hit recently, with 86%, 72%, and 82% of the offensive snaps played over the previous three games after ripping off six consecutive games with a 95% snap rate or higher. That increase in snap rate perfectly aligns with the injury to rookie Jahan Dotson, who left Week 4 with an injury and missed the subsequent five games. Tight end Logan Thomas also either missed or was limited in five of those games. Expect McLaurin to see around 80% of the offensive snaps, followed by Logan Thomas in the 65-75% snap rate range, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson in the 60-65% snap rate range, and primary blocking tight end John Bates in the 50-60% snap rate range. The biggest knock to the fantasy expectation for Washington pass-catchers (outside of low expected volume) is quarterback Taylor Heinicke’s numbers when pressured (the Giants blitz at the highest rate in the league), as the presumed starting quarterback is ranked above only Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Trevor Lawrence when under pressure this season.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW>>

• The Titans have run only 56.8 offensive plays per game this season, the second-fewest in the league, after finishing 2021 ranked second in average time of possession.
• A lot of that dip in time of possession and plays per game is due to a net drive success rate value that ranks 29^th in the league.
• Their opponent this week, the Eagles, rank fourth in net drive success rate, seventh in average time of possession, and have averaged an above-average 66.0 plays per game.
• The Titans have a very clear path of least resistance on the ground, which aligns with their preferred method of attack.
• The Eagles have a very clear path of least resistance through the air, but it remains to be seen how they will choose to attack an opponent that presents a pass-funnel matchup – quarterback Jalen Hurts has not thrown more than 28 pass attempts since Week 5 against the Cardinals.
• One of the #RevengeNarratives on this slate is A.J. Brown against his former team. Brown reportedly felt slighted by the organization after they decided to trade him instead of pay him after the work he put in for them over the first three years of his career.

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have taken their standard game plan under head coach Mike Vrabel to new levels with the play of their defensive line and linebacker corps, ranking first in the league in defensive rush DVOA, first in defensive adjusted line yards, and fifth in yards allowed per running back carry this season. That said, a dead-last overall pace of play and 29^th-ranked net drive success rate combine to have the Titans ranked just 19^th in average time of possession after finishing second to the Packers last season. Furthermore, the team has averaged only 56.8 plays per game, the second-fewest to only the Panthers. Basically, this team wants to crack down on the run, get pressure on the quarterback to disrupt drives, and play slow with elevated rush rates in order to stay in games into the fourth quarter. And for what seems like the better part of the previous four seasons, it’s working.

The biggest positive for the Titans this week is a matchup with the extreme run-funnel nature of the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank second in DVOA against the pass but just 24^th in DVOA against the run. Derrick Henry’s snap rate has fluctuated wildly this season, with final touch counts almost directly correlated to his time spent on the field. As in, Henry has played six games since the team’s Week 6 bye. He has seen 71% or more of the offensive snaps in three of those games and 59% or fewer in three of those games. He averages 32 running back opportunities in the three games on the higher side and 19.67 in the three games on the lower end, with two of the three games with low snap rates coming in losses. The Titans are currently 4.5-point dogs on the road. The most telling part is that his touch-per-snap rates have remained fairly consistent all year, it’s simply a function of Henry being on the field more in positive game scripts. Dontrell Hilliard should continue serving as the clear change of pace and long down and distance to go back, with a snap rate tied to the previous conversation. The pure rushing matchup yields a well above average 4.60 net-adjusted line yards metric against an Eagles defense ceding 24.9 DK points per game to opposing backfields.

Titans pass-catchers, as a collective, have exactly two combined instances of more than 81% snap rates, with Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine each going over the mark in Week 5, the first game following Treylon Burks’ injury. That makes sense considering the makeup of this team, a team that utilizes 12 personnel at almost a 60% clip this season. Rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks is the spark of the offense through the air, leading the team in targets per route run rate by a wide margin. He’s also the only pass-catcher to score more than a modest 13.0 fantasy points without scoring multiple touchdowns this season, as NWI did it once on a blowup, two-touchdown game with Treylon out, and tight end Austin Hooper did it once on a two-touchdown game in Week 11. Basically, the low overall volume from this offense, combined with the low pass rate and slow pace of play, has meant no pass-catcher outside of Treylon Burks can be considered viable outside of fluky variance.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Seattle is in the thick of the playoff race while the Rams season fades into the abyss.
• Several key Rams players on both sides of the ball appear likely to miss this game and possibly be shut down for the season.
• The Seattle defense has given up nearly 1,000 total yards in the last two weeks but gets a reprieve against the Rams 27th-ranked offense that will be without their top 3 offensive players.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks lost a heartbreaker in overtime in Week 12 to the Raiders, as they were destroyed on the ground by Josh Jacobs and torched through the air by Derek Carr. Seattle is now a game behind the 49ers in the NFC West and is right in the thick of the wild card hunt with several other teams. This game against a fading Rams squad that has a skeleton crew of player personnel is one that the Seahawks must take care of if they want to be a playoff team. Sometimes it is easy for the public to overlook games like this based on records, but Seattle has no such luxury. Good teams beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and while on paper this looks like an easy matchup, in reality, these are professional athletes who need to go take care of business.

The Rams defense will be without all-world defensive lineman Aaron Donald, possibly for the season, which is a huge blow to a previously formidable unit. Even last week, the Rams defense was able to hold Patrick Mahomes and company in check for the entirety of the game, as the Chiefs never scored more than seven points in a quarter. Without their best player and emotional leader, the Rams defense may be vulnerable, and the Seahawks should look to pounce on them from the start and potentially squash any energy the Rams start with. The Rams play a heavy amount of zone coverage, tops in the league, actually, and have the league’s 2nd lowest pressure rate. This should provide Geno Smith, the most accurate QB in the NFL, plenty of time to sit back and carve up the Rams secondary. The loss of Donald should only increase the time to throw for Smith, and he should be able to pepper his premier receivers as well as his tight ends in the underneath areas of the field that the Rams soft coverage leaves open. The Seahawks pass at the 8th highest rate over expectation in the league and play at the 13th fastest pace, slightly faster than league average, numbers that we should expect to hold early in this matchup against a Rams defense with a very good run defense that should still be solid even without Donald. The Seahawks running game has been very up and down with Kenneth Walker as the feature back. He has had some very good games but has often been reliant on big plays to pad his overall numbers, and many of those plays come late in games as they are closing things out. I would expect the Seahawks to be aggressive early to build a lead against the Rams weakness and vulnerability in the secondary and pass rush and then lean on Walker to close things out.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Miami is likely to lean into their elite passing game and avoid the 49ers dominant run defense as often as possible.
• San Francisco’s offense may also have to lean more on the pass than usual due to injuries to their running backs and a strong Miami run defense.
• This game has explosive players on both sides, along with defenses that are stout against the run but exploitable in the secondary.
• We likely need the Miami offense to have early success in order for this game to truly be pushed.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

In their Week 12 win over the Texans, the Dolphins were up 30-0 at halftime. At that point, they had called pass plays on 35 of 43 offensive plays (81%) despite the fact that the Texans entered the game ranked bottom-3 in the NFL against the run by pretty much any metric you can find. Over the last five weeks (since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury), the Dolphins rank 4th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). This week, the Dolphins face a 49ers defense that ranks top-5 in the league against the run by any metric and who head coach Mike McDaniel knows very well from his time as the offensive coordinator in San Francisco. McDaniel has shown this season that he does two things extremely well. First, he plays to his player’s/team’s strengths and puts them in a position to succeed. Second, he is aggressive and has an attacking mindset trying to build and grow leads rather than slowing down after early success. The 49ers have faced exactly one high-level offense with explosive pieces and a good quarterback, and that was Week 7 against the Chiefs, who dropped 42 points and 423 passing yards on them. We know McDaniel has it in him to say forget it and just throw it every play, so don’t be surprised if/when that happens this week.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• A rematch of last season’s AFC Championship, this game has star power and explosiveness on both sides of the ball.
• The Bengals are welcoming back two of their premier offensive players in RB Joe Mixon and WR Ja’Marr Chase.
• While a shootout is possible, both teams know each other well enough that a modest scoring game is also very viable.
• From a DFS perspective, high salaries and spread out usage make this game somewhat difficult to know how to stack.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs offense continues to roll, as they lead the NFL in scoring and yards per play through 12 weeks. The strategy behind Kansas City’s offensive success has been playing with pace (3rd fastest situation neutral pace of play) and aggressiveness (highest pass rate over expectation, or PROE, in the league). The Chiefs have rolled through several players at the wide receiver and running back positions this year, but have produced as a unit regardless of who is on the field. The Chiefs appear to have things condensing in their backfield, with Isiah Pacheco seeing the highest usage in Week 12 of any Chiefs RB all season, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on IR and Jerick McKinnon is battling a groin injury. Meanwhile, JuJu Smith-Schuster returned from injury in Week 12 and should be full go as the lead receiver for Patrick Mahomes.

From a philosophical perspective, the Chiefs have to enter this game knowing they are likely going to need to score points. They don’t really need an incentive to be pushed to throw aggressively, but it’s safe to say they will have their foot on the gas early in this game and won’t slow down even if they build a lead due to their respect for the explosiveness of the Bengals offense that is at full strength and scored 61 points against them in two contests last season, and has scored 30+ points in four of their last six games. The Chiefs offense is also likely to have a bit more of a “traditional” feel to it at this point due to the absence of Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney. Hardman and Toney were the players usually featured on the “gadget” plays such as jet sweeps and other short area plays, and while JuJu and Skyy Moore can function somewhat in that role as well, it will likely become less of a staple to what they do. Likewise, the losses of CEH and McKinnon leave the Chiefs with more of a “prototypical” running back than the pass catching types he was previously splitting reps with. The likely result? More typical running plays and short area concepts as well as more downfield passing — less gadgetry. This week the Chiefs face a Bengals defense that has been solid at times this year but has been vulnerable down the field in recent weeks against some teams who have otherwise struggled to push the ball deep in the Titans, Steelers, and Browns. It is no coincidence that these struggles by the Bengals pass defense have coincided with the loss of star cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. Expect a pass heavy game plan from the Chiefs against a Bengals pass defense that looks better on paper than their recent form has shown.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The status of Josh Jacobs (calf injury) clouds the outlook of the Raiders offense and this game as a whole.
• Expect a competitive game – despite mediocre records, these teams combined have lost by more than one score only three times.
• Elite on-paper matchups await both teams in the areas that they prefer to attack.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers offense is a high-octane unit that is aggressive and fast-moving. They lead the league in both pass rate and tempo, which is to be expected when you have a young stud quarterback with a cannon for an arm, talented wide receivers, and an all-world running back whose best skill set is his receiving ability. This week they have to be licking their chops as they are set to face the league’s worst defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics and PFF’s 27th-graded coverage unit. The Raiders defense has surrendered 20+ points to everyone but Russell Wilson this season, making it a safe bet that the Chargers offense has a reasonable scoring floor in this game.

Perhaps even more alarming for the Raiders defense in this matchup than their cumulative statistics this season is the fact that they have the bottom-ranked pass defense in the NFL despite facing only the 19th-highest pass rate in the NFL. This means that the Chargers pass-heavy game approach has the potential to light up the Raiders in ways that other teams have not fully leveraged. Geno Smith just set his season high in passing yards last week against the Raiders, and Justin Herbert should have a field day against a zone-heavy coverage scheme for the Raiders that will allow him to pick them apart with his personnel that is best suited for working the short to intermediate areas of the field. There isn’t anything too crazy to expect from the Chargers approach to this game, as they have a clear way that they want to play, and this matchup suits their strengths perfectly.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the woeful Colts traveling to Dallas to take on the elite defense (and so-so offense) of the Cowboys in a game with a 44 total and Dallas favored by 10.5. This gives the Cowboys an implied team total of 27.25 and the Colts just 16.75 (eek). For as inept as they can occasionally look on offense, the Cowboys have beaten that line in four of six of Dak’s starts this year (with 24 points in one of the two that he missed), often on the back of their defense, but even so, they’re putting points on the board consistently, while the Colts have only exceeded 20 points in one of Matt Ryan’s starts. So, while it’s weird seeing a total as low as Indy’s, it’s probably pretty spot-on. Let’s see how this one could play out.

Dallas

On the Dallas side, we may finally be seeing the stubbornness of Jerry Jones giving way in the face of the talent of Tony Pollard. Pollard has out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott in each of the last two games and has seen 41 running back opportunities (eight of them being targets) against 33 for Zeke. This came in two wins, as well, so it’s not as if Pollard was just getting catch-up work as he had more CARRIES than Zeke (33 to 31). At very similar prices, it’s pretty clear Pollard is the superior all-around play, but Zeke still has a strong role and has the edge of being the primary goal line back. Ownership is almost certain to weigh heavily towards Pollard, leaving Zeke as a contrarian tournament option where you hope he falls into the end zone once or twice. As large home favorites, I don’t think I’d group them out, because Zeke is still averaging 16.5 touches per game, but I do think that if I had one of Zeke, Pollard, or Dak Prescott in my captain spot, I would max one of the other two unless I was building 5-1 Dallas onslaught rosters. It’s also worth noting that while the Colts started the year off stronger against the run than the pass, at this point in the season they’re slightly above average against both but there is no longer a material difference between their run and pass defense rankings. The Colts are also facing the fourth-highest opposing rushing play percentage (largely because their offense is terrible), which gives plenty of space for both running backs to hit. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, it looks like CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and Michael Gallup in (roughly) that order, though a case could be made for Gallup moving ahead of Schultz. Lamb is in kind of a weird spot, in that he’s the kind of receiver who has a very solid floor but a somewhat modest ceiling, and he tends to get there via lots of volume instead of big plays, and this game doesn’t really lend itself towards a script in which he’s likely to see lots of volume. On a one-game slate, we aren’t comparing him to other elite-tier wide receivers as we are on the main slate, so he’s certainly a viable play, but I’m likely to be underweight on him in my “normal” rosters that are built around the idea of Dallas controlling the game. He’s a much, much stronger play on rosters that are built around the Colts playing from ahead or even winning outright. Schultz and Gallup are very cheap given their level of involvement in the offense, and while I prefer Schultz, it’s a pretty narrow gap. Schultz has, however, caught at least three passes in every game with Dak this season and he’s averaging just over five catches per game with Dak at quarterback. Gallup has a more volatile profile, with more per-target yardage upside but less touchdown equity. Noah Brown has the WR3 role though his snaps trended way down last week as Dallas ran more heavy sets. This is something that I think could continue here as the Colts have a solid pass rush and Dallas is likely to adopt a run-heavy game plan, if and when they’re playing from ahead. Brown, WR4 Jalen Tolbert, and rotational tight ends Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot all fall into the MME tournament player pool. I think I’d rank them Ferguson, Brown, Henderson, and then any other random scrub you want to include. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday Night Football has the Saints visiting the Bucs for a 40.5 total game with Tampa favored by 3.5. So, we’re expecting a bit of a snoozefest, but there’s money to be made and my job is to help you make it! The Saints under Andy Dalton have put up 22 points per game, but just 12.5 in their last four. Is the Dalton magic wearing off? Meanwhile, the Bucs, off a bye, put up only 17 points against Cleveland, despite the game going to overtime, and with Cleveland being one of the league’s worst defenses. Eek. The Bucs are, of course, a very strong defense (14th in run defense DVOA, 6th in pass defense, 7th overall), while the Saints have slipped this season to the middle of the pack at 15th overall, 12th against the pass, and 21st against the run. Let’s figure this one out.

Tampa Bay

On the Tampa side, Leonard Fournette is off the injury report and so the question is, what will his role be? Last week, Rachaad White took on a full bell cow role, playing 90% of the snaps and seeing 14 carries and nine (!) targets. He ran for 4.6 yards per carry (Fournette is at 3.4 on the season and only matched White’s YPC in one game this year) and caught all nine of those targets. So, does Fournette move back on top of the hierarchy, or has White seized the RB1 role? I don’t know, but, my money’s on White. His role had been growing throughout the season already as Fournette underperformed. The risk here is just the “veteran” thing, and we know that Tom Brady likes “his guys” who he trusts, and Fournette is on that list but my guess here is that White has earned his place on it as well. My best guess is that it’s more of a split than we saw last week and that White operates as the 1A with Fournette as the 1B. This is a situation where I’d be wary of playing them together, and while I don’t think I’d group them out entirely in flex spots, I would avoid one if captaining the other and would set up a rule that gives a negative boost to one if the other is in the lineup. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Bucs will trot out Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in full-time roles with Julio Jones at WR3 splitting time with Russell Gage (if he’s active) or some combination of Scotty Miller and/or Breshad Perriman. Marshon Lattimore is likely to play in this one for the Saints, and while I normally don’t overly worry about individual cornerback matchups, Lattimore has a long history with Evans and has largely contained him. In 16 games against the Saints, Evans has a total of 791 receiving yards and five touchdowns and has only put up 20+ Draftkings points in two of those games. That’s a pretty sizable sample, and regardless of who has been at quarterback, the Saints have had Evans’ number. Now if Evans is going to come in at low ownership, I wouldn’t really worry about this, because we know his ceiling is elite, but when he’s priced cheaper than Chris Godwin and on a one-game slate, I expect we see Evans on around 40-50% of rosters. At that ownership, it’s a spot I want to come in underweight on and hope he drags down a large chunk of the field with him (and yes, it’s a scary spot to fade – it could absolutely kill me). I lean towards Godwin, whose shorter-area role gives him an elite floor but who also sees enough volume to have a real ceiling. Julio’s cheap enough to be perfectly viable despite limited volume (we’ve seen he still has big play ability at this point in his career with some long catches this year), and I think Gage is a really strong option if he’s active at just $4,600. If Gage is inactive, Miller and Perriman can be used in MME pools (I guess they still can be used if Gage plays, they’re just even thinner than normal). At tight end, Cade Otton has earned his way into a split with Cam Brate, which makes them both pretty mediocre. My preference is (significantly) for Otton, who is both cheaper and has shown more per-catch upside this season. He’s reasonable as a value play, but if Brate plays (I assume he will but he has a Q tag with an illness currently), he’s not a smash value option. If Brate misses, Otton would become a smash value option. Ko Kieft snagged a touchdown last week but only has six targets on the season; he creeps into tourney viability if Brate misses.