Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Justin Fields started the week with a limited practice before getting in a full session on Thursday – looks like he will make his return from a one-game absence with his shoulder injury.
- Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a right thumb (throwing hand) avulsion fracture and rib injury that forced him out of Week 12’s contest in the second half. He started the week as a non-participant before being upgraded to a limited session Thursday.
- Rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs returned to practice for the first time in over four weeks on Wednesday.
- Darnell Mooney suffered a season-ending ankle injury that required surgery last week, leaving the Bears thin at wide receiver.
How green bay Will Try To Win ::
The Packers continue their disappointing season with a Week 13 visit to Soldier Fields to take on the rebuilding Bears, who are expecting to get their dynamic quarterback back from a one-game absence. Aaron Rodgers was forced from last week’s game with a rib injury following a sack taken in the third quarter, and he did not practice on Wednesday before getting in a limited session on Thursday. He is also still dealing with an avulsion fracture to his thumb on his throwing hand. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Rodgers to play so we’ll write up the remainder of this game as if he plays and include some caveats should Jordan Love draw the start down below. Aaron Rodgers leads the offense with the slowest pace in the league, routinely waiting until the play clock reaches its final tick before snapping the football. They have paired this with a bottom 10 pass rate over expectation (PROE) value and slightly below average 58.89% overall pass rate to run only 61.4 offensive plays per game. Their average time of possession is down over two minutes per game compared to last season, which can be summed up via a 22nd-ranked net drive success rate. Green Bay continues to run an offense based primarily from 11-personnel, with around 10% of their offensive snaps run from 21- and 12-personnel over the previous two games. I’d expect that to remain similar considering Doubs appears likely to return this week. Electric defensive back Darnell Savage was forced from the team’s Week 12 contest and has yet to practice this week, which could be an issue for a defense that utilizes heavy rates of prevent zone coverages – coverages that require increased communication and cohesion along the back side.
Aaron Jones maintains his status as the lead back for the Packers, handling 66% or more of the offensive snaps in five of the last six games. That said, typically the team likes to get A.J. Dillon involved after the first drive in games they are able to find success on the ground, which is likely to be the case against the Bears. The Green Bay offensive line remains one of the league’s top units this season, even through significant turnover and injuries, making it likelier Dillon is able to amass meaningful touches this week, particularly considering the injuries to Aaron Rodgers. The matchup on the ground yields a robust 4.78 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Chicago defense ceding 4.83 yards per running back carry on the season. Finally, while Aaron Jones is the clear lead back in this offense, his 62.7% snap rate ranks just 17th in the league and he has seen just one goal line carry all season.
Rookie wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have not been healthy in the same game since Week 4, meaning we can’t be entirely sure how the team will spread the available wide receiver snaps amongst the two behind clear lead wideout Allen Lazard, but I would tentatively expect head coach Matt LaFleur to mix things up this week. Watson has played 80% or more of the offensive snaps in each of the previous three weeks alongside Lazard while Doubs played 82% or more of the offensive snaps for six straight weeks prior to getting injured. Watson is the most athletic of the bunch and Lazard’s role is somewhat cemented, making it likely we see Doubs mix into the slot rotation with aging veteran Randall Cobb. Either way, we can’t expect a ton of individual volume from any pass-catcher here considering the matchup, Rodgers’ injuries, the low overall volume from the offense, and the reintegration of Romeo Doubs, leaving fantasy viability in the realms of efficiency and touchdowns.
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