Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
The Thanksgiving Slate is awesome for a few reasons. First, you get to watch with family (typically, and sometimes begrudgingly so). Second, because there are just three games, it’s the greatest mix of the predictability of a main slate with the volatility of a Showdown. As we look at the way this slate shapes up, we have three projected dominant outcomes. Lions by 7.5, Cowboys by 11, and the 49ers by a touchdown. While covering the spread is essentially a coin toss, we know the NFL doesn’t subscribe to how it should play out on paper. It’s on us, the predictors, to identify which of these games can have a flipped script, which underdog will hang in there and give the favorite a contested matchup or pull off an upset victory, or . . . if all three favorites here dominate and win (boring). In the wise words of Chris Berman, “that’s why they play the games.”
A Showdown slate allows us to analyze the player pools and really dig into the matchups at every level to see where the best on-paper matchup lies, and where the off script outcomes present themselves. We can do the same here through a simple narrative exercise. We have the Packers, with Jordan Love coming off his best game of the season, but likely down Aaron Jones, squaring off with the Lions defense on which both the Bears and Chargers moved the ball easily. The Commanders, with a banged up Sam Howell and a head coach ripe to be fired, at perhaps their lowest point in the season, getting the tough Cowboys defense. And finally, the Seahawks, limping into this one with a starting quarterback with an injured elbow and a matchup with the 49ers, who are firing on all cylinders. In order to build effective DFS lineups on this slate, force yourself to envision the outcomes of all three games. We have to find our “just right” outcomes across the three games. Too hot would be all three favorites winning and covering. Too cold would be something like all three underdogs winning their matchups outright. Just right likely lies somewhere in between. And while it’s difficult to envision which of these underdogs can find success, this is the thought exercise I am going through on this slate.
Despite these all being divisional matchups, I was surprised when I realized the only one that has happened already this season was the Packers // Lions. The Lions dominated that game in Week 4 when David Montgomery returned from injury and had 32 carries and three touchdowns. We know using solely the past to predict the future is lazy, but since it’s the only one that has happened already this season, we can use this to our advantage to realize many will see this previous game and assume the same outcome, a dominant Lions win. Without the presence of a previous matchup this season for the other games, my angle here is leaning into the Packers, as the likeliest underdog to make some noise, while the Cowboys (even if they never cover the spread on Thanksgiving) and 49ers have enough positive momentum and facing injured quarterbacks leads me to believe they’ll enjoy the same success this week. With this in mind, here is how I am looking to exploit these three true outcomes on Thanksgiving (and enjoy the holiday, everyone!):
