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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.
Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.
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LV is a 5-point favorite at home. Carolina has seen just 22 attempts per game against, 2 of which to the slot where Meyers operates at a 50%+ clip, while LV has been fast and pass leaning and looking to get back to their identity. This looks like a perfect game to establish it.
Panthers are playing top 10 rates of zone, which Meyers has just a 10% target share, and there probably isn’t enough Pass game work to support Adams, Meyers, and the Brock Bowers break out.
The bet is good to: -140
This is a bet that’s a combination of role and game environment. First, Javonte has 19 carries on the season, so 9-10 per game. He averages 2.1 yards per carry so far and on 9-10 carries would already be a slight underdog to beat this line. We’ve seen McLaughlin eating into his role, and with how poorly he’s run, I think there’s more downside than upside to his workload on the ground.
Broncos have also been atrociously bad on offense and are on the road facing the Bucs, who are a solid D (especially against the run) as 6.5-point underdogs.
We would take the bet down to 40.5 at modest juice.
Lawrence has completed 12 and 14 passes over the first two weeks of the season. They lost both games. He’s also been sacked 7 times. Both JAX and BUF have -PROE and Buffalo has shown a willingness to run the rock when ahead to drain clock, shortening the game and possessions for the other team. Engram appears to be out again this week, opening up deeper aDot looks for Gabe Davis and BTJ. Kirk has seen just a 10% target share vs zone, a scheme the Bills play at a top ten rate, limiting easy dump offs. This feels like a game where both teams are unlikely to push the pace and keep the ball on the ground.
The bet is good to: -135
First things first, this is a CeeDee Lamb game. Baltimore runs the 11th most man defense in 2024, a scheme Lamb has a 52%+ target share through 2 games, leaving just a 6% share and 1 reception for Cooks. We should also see TE Jake Ferguson back to move the chains and soak up some volume. Jalen Tolbert may be breaking out and passing Cooks in the pecking order (age 30 season) and earning more targets, while the RBs have absorbed 14 targets on the season.
CeeDee has played 60% of his snaps in the slot this year, but that’s the tougher path with Baltimore getting beat more on the outside. If Cooks is asked to increase his 25% slot share, were in a great spot.
The bet is good to: -130
