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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.
Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.
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DJ Moore has 6 or more receptions since Week 11, which is exactly when Chicago made a coaching change. His aDOT has come down and his completion percentage has risen, averaging over 9 targets a game with the new coach. We expect him to go over this line a good amount of the times this slate plays out with that context.
The bet is good to: -120
Worthy has gone over this line in 5 straight, games. Houston gives up the 7th most yards to WR and faces the 6th most targets to WR. The betting market hasn’t adjusted to his role with KC. There is a bias against Worthy, but his route tree has expanded over the season and he has at least 6 targets in the last 4 games (11 last week). We prefer his yards to receptions here.
The bet is good to: -130
