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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.
Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.
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Nix is 7-3 to the over on the season and playing a pace-up game against the Falcons at home. The Bronco’s pass rate over expectation has increased over the last month and they continue to play better in hurry-up situations. The Falcons have seen an average of 33.5 pass attempts per game this season, albeit with a 50 attempt game from Baker skewing the average some. We like this as a spot for Nix to keep the chains moving against a team willing to give up completions to avoid the big play.
The bet is good to: -120
Passers versus Baltimore. QBs have thrown 30+ attempts in 9/10 games this season, with the exception being opening night vs Mahomes. Baltimore D is seeing nearly 40 pass plays a game, while teams are running just north of 21 times per game against them. The Steelers have gotten more pass-happy and are playing at a higher situation neutral speed under Russ in one of/the best volume matchups.
The bet is good to: -120
