Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments. My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.
Week 15 has four games that pique my interest:
I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.
This game has a special place in my heart because I’ve won more money stacking this one than any other game. It’s highly predictable. The Bengals are going to throw, throw, throw, and the Ravens are going to attack on the ground. When the Ravens do take to the air, they’re going to get their TEs involved. This game has produced a lot of chalk over the years, but ownership projections aren’t predicting anyone to be highly owned other than Ja’Marr Chase. Interestingly, Joe Burrow is only projected for 5% ownership, which means that even though Chase will be chalk, stacking him with Burrow won’t be a common approach. If you add Chase Brown (projected 5% ownership) to the stack, you’ve created a unique combination that is highly correlated. Even Derrick Henry (projected 11% ownership) isn’t going to be chalk, which means adding him as a Ravens bring back won’t make your lineup more common. With everyone flocking to the next game on our list, the field seems to be overlooking this game’s potential. It’s going to be cold (in the teens), and there is some correlation between extreme cold and scoring, but a lot of the games are going to be played in the cold, and I don’t think it’s enough to lessen expectations. My favorite way to play this game is Burrow + Chase + Tinsley + Henry + Ravens TE.
The game of the week, and without checking, the highest total we’ve seen so far this season. This game is expected to produce a lot of points. It’s a contest between two high-scoring offenses, played in good conditions. I’m going to have exposure to this game on my tighter builds, but I might fade it on my main lineup. Why? Because everyone is going to be popular, all the players are expensive, and it’s not an easy game to target. On the Lions side, Gibbs is projected to be chalk, but because of Christian McCaffrey and Gibbs both having high price tags, you essentially must pick one or the other, and I’m not sure I like Gibbs more than CMC. The Lions passing game has a tough matchup, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has only produced two games all year that you’d really want at his price tag. Those came against the Giants and Bears, both of which are easy matchups. Jameson Williams is interesting, and he’s produced six quality games in his last eight, but the two duds were literal zeroes. He has the biggest gap in his floor/ceiling of any player on the slate. Puka Nacua is coming off his best game of the season, but he is priced up to the point that playing him makes it hard to build the rest of your roster, unless also fading the top RBs. Davante Adams is priced too high for a guy who lives off touchdowns – he’s not the type of player I use in DFS. The Rams backfield has become a split. This game has a monster total, and these teams are going to score, but I’m struggling to figure out who to use in DFS. My favorite way to stack this game is Stafford + Puka + Williams.
This is the classic game between two bad teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. Neither team has anything to play for, so they might as well have fun! That’s how I see this one playing out, and that’s a pattern that has been repeated over the years. It’s difficult to find value on this slate, and this game provides some cheap options that can produce big scores. Both defenses have struggled, and both offenses have been fun (at times). The passing games on both sides are cheap, and you can justify using Tyrone Tracy to save salary, as he is set to return from injury. This game means nothing in real life, but sometimes those games are the best ones for DFS late in the season. My favorite way to stack this game is Mariota + McLaurin + Deebo + Johnson.
This game makes the list because it’s going to produce points, but like the Rams/Lions game, it’s not easy to target for DFS. The Patriots run defense has been middling (16th in DVOA), which is an okay matchup for James Cook, but he’s priced like an elite option, and hasn’t produced an elite fantasy score since Week 8. Josh Allen tends to take over later in the season, but he’s priced $500 higher than the next closest QB, and on a slate with almost no value, it’s hard to pay up at QB. Allen’s issues are compounded by not having a reliable stacking partner. There is no one on the Bills you can feel good about pairing with Allen, and when Allen explodes, it’s almost always because he’s scoring rushing touchdowns. Drake Maye is also priced like an elite option and doesn’t have a reliable stacking partner, but he doesn’t offer Allen’s rushing upside. The Bills run defense has been poor (30th in DVOA), but the Patriots backfield has devolved into a near even split between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. I’m going to have exposure to this game, but I’m not sure exactly how I’m going to make that happen. My favorite stack right now is Allen + Cook + Henderson, which is a bit awkward, but I see it as the best way to capture the points in this game.
