Papy’s Pieces 7.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• This is an “ugly” week for DFS with zero games sporting a total north of 50. 
• The highest scoring game of the week is projected to be LAC // KC (48) in a game that has appealing elements but involves the spread-it-out, strong defense Chiefs who haven’t created the game environments they once did. Even if this game ends up being high scoring, there is still a chance no one produces a must-have-it score at their price. 
• The second highest total is GB // DEN (45) which is far from a sure thing. In addition to a lack of strong game environments, there are a lot of weak ones, with five games rocking totals of 40 or lower. 
• This is the type of week where you should forget about totals and focus on picking individual players who are in the right spots. Totals tend to mean more for QBs // RBs // TEs than they do WRs. 
• Explosive WR scores emerge more often in low total games than they do at the other positions, making this a great week to pay down (especially at QB) while focusing on trying to nail the WRs. 

Pawn – QB Jordan Love ($5,800)

Love has been one of the most aggressive QBs in the league this year, leading the league in intended air yards per attempt. That’s an amazing stat considering that his best downfield weapon (Christian Watson) didn’t play until Week 4 (46% of snaps) and didn’t look himself until Week 5 (84% of snaps). Love is a gunslinger, who wants to attack vertically and offers you potential with his legs. That’s a great combination against a defense that has been lit on fire this year. The Broncos are last in a myriad of defensive metrics, and there are starting to be rumors of a fire sale rebuild. There are a lot of good options at QB this week priced below $6,000, which should spread ownership. With Love currently projected to be around 8%, sign me up.

Knight – WR Drake London ($5,100)