Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Colts listed nine players as ‘DNP’ on their Wednesday practice report, including RBs Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Trey Sermon (knee) and WRs Michael Pittman (back) and Josh Downs (toe).
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson was listed as a full participant after missing the previous two games with an oblique injury.
- Dolphins RB De’Von Achane was listed as a full participant after sustaining a concussion in Week 5. That likely means he is in the final stages of the league’s five-step concussion protocol, with the bye week affording him enough time to remain symptom-free.
- Dolphins QB Skylar Thompson (ribs) returned to a full practice to begin the week after missing the previous two games. It remains unclear whether it will be Thompson or recent acquisition Tyler Huntley under center against the Colts.
- The Dolphins rank sixth in pressure rate on defense (36.6%) while the Colts rank fifth in pressure rate allowed on offense (26.8%) and Anthony Richardson has been horrid when pressured this season, making this a key matchup for the eventual flow of this game.
- The Dolphins carry an insanely wide range of outcomes as far as expected offensive production goes. On the one hand, they are one of only two teams yet to score 21 points this season. On the other hand, Gus Bradley’s Colts defense is the perfect opponent to have two weeks to game plan for as his unit is extremely static.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
First off, the Dolphins are one of two teams yet to score 21 points or more this season, joined by only the Browns (lolz). Secondly, there is not a better opponent to have two weeks to game plan against than the static nature of Gus Bradley’s Cover-3-heavy defense. That leaves the Dolphins with a wider range of outcomes as far as their expected offensive production than I think the field will realize here. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense has not been able to overcome the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to this point in the season, but the bye week could be just what he needed to figure out how to best move forward. Incredibly, the Dolphins currently find themselves in second place in the underwhelming AFC East and have two opponents in the Colts and Cardinals that can be outmaneuvered before playing the Bills again in Week 9. In other words, there is a world in which the Week 9 meeting between the Bills and Dolphins is for first place in the division. Considering the Bills still have games against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions on the schedule, it is not out of reason to say that Miami’s season is not yet over. In order for that situation to play out, the Dolphins first must find a win against the Colts in Week 7. And in order to accomplish that task, they absolutely must figure out their offense. This leads us back to the fact that they are coming out of their bye week, providing an additional two weeks for McDaniel to figure out how to best utilize quarterback Tyler Huntley after the latter joined the team leading up to Week 3. As mentioned previously (and will continue to be mentioned), Gus Bradley’s Colts defense is one of the more face-up defenses in the league, which provides the best case scenario for a head coach looking to find his stride on offense. But again, the Dolphins are one of only two teams yet to score 21 points in a game this season. There is a lot going on here on this side of the matchup.
De’Von Achane returned to a full practice Wednesday, meaning he is likely in the final stages of the league’s concussion protocol and should suit up against the Colts. We have yet to see a full game with both Achane and Mostert healthy this season, with Mostert getting injured in Week 1 and Achane leaving Week 5 with a concussion. I expect close to an even split in snaps and opportunities between the two should both remain fully healthy throughout the game, which is likely to lead to 14-16 opportunities for Mostert and 12-14 for Achane, with Achane having the clearer path to pass game usage. The biggest problem for their respective fantasy profiles is an offensive line blocking to the seventh fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.56), a unit that ranks third in pass-blocking win rate. The pure matchup yields a net-adjusted yards before contact value of just 1.775, which stands as one of the worst grades on the slate.
If the Dolphins are to win this game, it has to start with the structure of their passing offense. Tyreek Hill’s 0.40 FP/RR with quarterbacks not named Tua Tagovailoa this season would stand as the lowest mark of his career. His 28.8% first-read target rate would be his lowest mark since his rookie season. Against a defense that presents a static pre-snap picture to opposing quarterbacks, I have to hope McDaniel has spent the previous two weeks coaching up Tyler Huntley to exploit those tendencies with Tyreek Hill. If not, this team’s season is over, because this game is as close to a must-win game for a team that has played only five games as you’ll find. Jaylen Waddle is arguably the top WR2 in the league (maybe it’s Davante Adams now in New York or maybe it’s DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia, but those are up for debate), but this offense absolutely must get Hill and Huntley on the same page to be successful. The Colts are allowing the seventh-most pass yards per game (234.3) and eighth-most yards per pass attempt (7.3) this season, making this a solid spot for McDaniel to get Hill going early. I expect them to come out feeding their alpha wide receiver early here. No other pass-catcher outside of the top two options in this offense is playing more than 50% of the offensive snaps in a standard week, making all other names a tough sell away from Huntley-led team stacks.
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