Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Chiefs are fairly healthy heading into the Super Bowl. QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle), P Matt Araiza (illness), and OT Jawaan Taylor (knee) were listed as full participants on Thursday. Araiza was added to the injury report after not appearing on it Wednesday but current reports indicate he is highly likely to play.
- Chiefs WR Skyy Moore (IR, abdomen) was listed as questionable on both practice reports this week (as of Thursday), raising questions regarding his availability on Sunday. Not a big deal either way for the Chiefs considering their depth at the position, with Moore likeliest to contribute on special teams.
- Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) logged limited sessions to start the week but it appears to be maintenance-related. TE Dallas Goedert, OG Landon Dickerson, LB Zack Baun, DT Jalen Carter, WR Britain Covey, RB Kenny Gainwell, C Cam Jurgens, and recent addition C.J. Uzomah all practiced in full Thursday.
- Patrick Mahomes ranked 30th in the league in average intended air yards while the Chiefs ranked fifth in yards after the catch per reception, highlighting this team’s desire to march the field via sustained drives behind a methodical, and surgical, offensive approach.
- Saquon Barkley needs 169 yards to set the NFL record for most rushing yards in a single postseason.
How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
The Chiefs continue to be content to march the field, shorten the game behind a top-notch defense, and try to win the game late. They have already set records for most consecutive one-score victories, with their 32-29 win over the Bills in the AFC Championship game only extending that record. Playoffs included, 12 of their 16 wins this season came in one-possession games. They are highly likely to aim to force the Eagles to march the field on defense while deploying a “spy-blitz” mentality on key downs, designed to generate pressure in the backfield while simultaneously containing Jalen Hurts to the pocket. More on the inner workings of their offensive identity in the following paragraphs.
Former unquestioned lead back Isiah Pacheco has seen a snap rate north of a modest 37% just once in the seven games since returning from injured reserve, including the playoffs. He has settled into about 30% of the offensive snaps in each postseason game, leaving Kareem Hunt to serve as the “lead back” of what has become a three-headed timeshare. Samaje Perine continues to play on clear passing downs and the two-minute offense, something that has resulted in one target per game and zero total carries in the postseason. In fact, it took all the way until the final drive of the team’s AFC Championship win over the Bills for Perine to see his first playoff touch. The Eagles ranked third in adjusted yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.64), 11th in yards allowed per carry (4.3), and first in fantasy points allowed per game (17.5) to opposing backfields during the regular season and are healthier than they have been on the defensive interior in quite some time. For Showdown, the only reason to go to any of these three is to hunt (pun intended) for a touchdown in a low-scoring game.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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Patrick Mahomes ranks 30th in the league this season with a 6.5 average intended air yards, which makes sense considering the similar structure of the offense compared to their 2023 Super Bowl run. We thought some of those tendencies would change with the additions of speedsters Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, but the preseason injury to Brown and the typical tendency to bring rookies on slowly from Andy Reid contributed to much of the same offensive approach that we saw last year. Per Underdog’s Hayden Winks, two of Mahomes’ nine worst performances by EPA have come against a Vic Fangio defense, mostly due to the high rates of two-high deployed by his scheme (second-ranked 61.1% two-high utilization rate this year). The general function of two-high is to force the football underneath, with an athletic and aggressive linebacking unit and secondary tailor-made for this scheme. That should serve to funnel the football to the short-to-intermediate middle of the field outside of schemed usage, playing into a possible increase in volume for Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. Somewhat remarkably, Gray ranks second on the team in receiving yardage against two-high alignments this season, just six yards behind Kelce. Notably, Xavier Worthy’s underlying metrics take a stark hit against two-high this season, returning just 0.14 targets per route run, an 11.9% target rate, and 0.26 fantasy points per route run against the alignment. Rashee Rice had been this team’s two-high beater until he suffered a season-ending injury and the player with the closest skillset to his is JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu makes for an interesting punt option in Showdown. But my money for the player likeliest to align with the matchup is Hollywood Brown, who is likely to see heavier rates of schemed usage considering the opponent.