Thursday, Sep 8th
Monday, Sep 12th

Edge Bets 18.21.

Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting

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@FriendofFantasy

The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active this season. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 18! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!

Week 17 Recap

EDGE BETS Week 17: 0-3
EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 25-26

Chuba Hubbard: Under 40.5 Rushing Yards 

Result: Loss (55 Rushing Yards)

Chuba Hubbard carried the ball 17 times for 55 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry. He continues to be one of the least effective running backs in the league on a team that rarely plays in positive gamescripts. The big blow here came via a 21 yard touchdown run early in the second quarter. 

Taylor Heinicke: Under 199.5 Passing Yards

Result: Loss (247 Passing Yards)

Well, he played the whole game. Chalk that one up as a loss to coachspeak. Heinicke played alright, especially early, coming out strong to complete his first seven passes and leading the Football Team to a early 10-0 advantage. He completed 27/36 passes for 247 yards and an interception. He will still be at risk of seeing decreased time in Week 18.

Jalen Hurts: Over 44.5 Rushing Yards

Result: Loss (44 Rushing Yards)

Jalen Hurts was at one time credited with 45 rushing yards, before the dreaded stat correction and hook loss. Jordan Howard ended up being active, so hopefully you had the time to wait for inactives Sunday morning. Still, Hurts managed to average 6.3 yards per carry, albeit on limited volume. 

Personal Prop Bets Placed

Week 1: +10.0 Units

Week 2: -1.1 Units

Week 3: 0.0 Units 

Week 4: +4.65 Units

Week 5: +3.1 Units

Week 6: +2.4 Units

Week 7: -0.3 Units

Week 8: -5.7 Units

Week 9: +11.75 Units

Week 10: +5.8 Units

Week 11: -0.13 Units

Week 12: +6.67 Units

Week 13: +2.18 Units

Week 14: -0.1 Units

Week 15: +1.47 Units

Week 16: +0.00 Units

Week 17: +2.75 Units

2021: +43.53 Units

Week 18 Edge Bets

Alvin Kamara Over 58.5 Rush Yards

Book: DraftKings (-115), BetMGM (-115)

By LexMiraglia10:

“NOR needs to win to stay alive.”

“AK has 75+ yds in 9/12 games.”

“RBs with 75+ yds vs ATL: Sanders (113) // Fournette (76) // Saquon (94:1) // Gibson (75:1) // Gaskin (77:1) // Hubbard (91:1) // AK (104:1) // Pollard (98) // Rhamondre (75) // JRob (115) // Fournette (92:1) // Wilson (119:1) // Williams (77) // Singletary (110:2).”

“AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19.”

“AK has 60+ rush yds in 6/12 games.”

“ATL ranks 30th in def rush DVOA.”

By Mjohnson86:

“Both offenses have turned into run-heavy teams over the second half of the season, ranking 21st and 23rd in the league in situation-neutral pass rates.”

“The Saints have run the ball on 51% of their offensive plays during Hill’s four starts. This week they face a Falcons run defense that is 30th in DVOA, 26th in yards per carry allowed, and 28th in PFF rush defense grade.”

“New Orleans will use their dual-threat rushing attack to stretch the Atlanta defense and attack their overmatched front seven horizontally.”

“The Saints have their season on the line and will lean into their clear and obvious strength against a team that is dead in the water and is already vulnerable to rushing attacks.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

After starting the week with a limited practice on Wednesday, Mark Ingram logged back-to-back DNPs to end the week. Never a good sign. The Atlanta Falcons rush defense has given up at least 100 yards to running backs in nine of their last 11 games, with the two outlier games coming against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the ever inefficient Chuba Hubbard. The Saints have a mismatch upfront versus the bottom-feeding defensive line of Atlanta and should be able to add a further edge through drawn up QB runs to create even more running room. Kamara has shown the ability to handle 20+ carries this year in games without Ingram and carried the ball on 13/16 running back rush attempts last week with Ingram sidelined (the other three rush attempts went for -4 yards). With the playoffs on the line this week, expect Kamara to be the focal point in a game the Falcons are unlikely to pull ahead early, in a clear opportunity to touch the ball over 25 times in a must win.

Christian Kirk Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Book: BetRivers (-117), DraftKings (55.5-115), BetMGM (55.5-115)

By LexMiraglia10:

“ARI can jump from the 5 seed to 3 seed with a win & LAR loss to SF.”

“ARI WRs in games Hopkins has missed:: Kirk: 91 // 58 // 25 // 94:1 // 48 // 79.”

“Targets in those games: Kirk (49) // Green (29) // Wesley (21) // Moore (23).”

By Mjohnson86:

“This game may quietly have the most offensive upside of any game on the slate.”

“Both teams are playing at a fast pace and throwing often recently.”

“Motivation is there on both sides, as Arizona has a lot to play for and Pete Carroll would love to play spoiler.”

“Arizona leads the league in no-huddle rate and plays at the 7th fastest situation-neutral pace in the league. Also of note, the Cardinals lead the league in situation-neutral pass rate over the last four weeks.”

“I would expect Arizona to play at a very fast pace and spread out this talent deficient Seattle defense with an aggressive attack.”

“The Cardinals are likely to put the ball in Kyler’s hands often against a Seattle pass defense that ranks 30th in PFF pass-rush grade and 26th in coverage grade, while also grading poorly in both DVOA and yards per pass attempt.”

Reasy’s Reasoning

We finally have a healthy Kyler Murray just in time for the playoffs. But first, a narrative based divisional matchup that could be the last for both Russel Wilson and Pete Carrol. The Seattle Seahawks have increased both their no huddle and situation-neutral pace of play over the last month, with a no huddle rate of 15% and a pace of play ranked second in the NFL. Could this be one last rendition of “Let Russ Cook”? A 4th quarter attempt by the Seahawks to convince Wilson to remain the face of the franchise? No better way to find out than a Week 18 date with the Arizona Cardinals, who rank first in no huddle rate (34%) and sixth in situation-neutral pass rate (64%) over the same month’s stretch. Combined, this could lead to a fast-paced, pass-heavy, back and forth affair that could see increased play volume. Christian Kirk has received 20+ targets more than any other Cardinals receiver since DeAndre Hopkins went down with an injury, tallying 22 catches on 30 targets over the last three weeks while averaging 74.3 yards per game. 

*Kyler Murray Passing yards and Pass+Rushing yards are also strong bets.

Tampa Bay Playing Time Bets:
Mike Evans Under 72.5 Receiving Yards

Book: BetRivers (-112)

Evans will almost certainly get the 55 yards needed to extend his consecutive 1000 yard season to start his career record, but, once achieved, the Buccaneers would be smart to not risk Evans with their sudden lack of depth at receiver. Expect Evans to play situationally after securing the record.

Tom Brady Under 285.5 Passing Yards 

Book: BetRivers (-114)

With the Buccaneers able to secure the #2 seed with a win and Rams loss, they do have incentive to win this game. But with a bye unattainable, they would be smart to give Brady some rest once this game is well within hand. With both these games playing at the same time, you can be sure that the Tampa Bay brass will be scoreboard watching. Carolina has a strong passing defense, limiting Brady’s upside with little likelihood of being pushed in Sam Darnold’s curtain call. The Carolina Panthers have little incentive to continue to fight into the second half.


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ActionLabs Props Tool

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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Scroll this week!

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