Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
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The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active this season. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 16! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!
Jeff Wilson: Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
Result: Win (110 Rushing Yards)
Jeff Wilson was in a classic smash spot after two less than stellar starts to bounce back with a vengeance against the hapless Atlanta Falcons rush defense. We could be sure that whoever was running the ball behind San Francisco’s elite run blocking unit would pile up yardage against Atlanta’s 27th ranked defense in yards per carry. With the 49ers in control throughout the game after an early Atlanta field goal, Wilson compiled 21 rushing attempts for 110 rushing yards and a touchdown. Wilson received 21 of 29 backfield carries and finally delivered an efficient day on the ground for both his prop betting and DFS backers.
Chuba Hubbard: Under 42.5 Rushing Yards
Result: Win (40 Rushing Yards)
Chuba Hubbard was largely inefficient outside of an early 21 yard run in the first quarter, carrying the ball eight times for 40 yards in a 31-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills. As expected, Cam Newton did most of the damage on the ground in this one, carrying 15 times for 71 yards and a touchdown near the goaline. Hubbard is now a part-time back, early down “grinder”, that must compete with one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the game. Expect Hubbard to continue to be limited to modest volume in games Carolina trails early.
James Robinson: Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Result: Win (18 Rushing Attempts)
James Robinson failed once again to surpass 18 carries in a game this season as the Houston Texans won the battle of bottom feeders in the NFL. As expected, Robinson did dominate running back carries (18/19) but was not forced into increased volume as some expected with the firing of coach Urban Meyer. Robinson did see a large increase in snaps without Meyer, something we can look to this week if Robinson’s yardage props take a hit after a failed trip to Houston. Trevor Lawrence carried five times for 21 yards, operating as the second option for rushing attempts with little talent remaining in the Jacksonville Jaguars RB room. Robinson averaged 4.2 yards per carry, with a long of 16 yards, but the game script did not favor high volume in a matchup Houston controlled as the Jags entered the second half down 20-10.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
Week 13: +2.18 Units
Week 14: -0.1 Units
Week 15: +1.47 Units
2021: +40.78 Units
Book: DraftKings (-115), BetMGM (245.5 -105)
“Averaging his lowest attempts (34.3), yards per game (238.6), TD% (3.8%), and QBR (48.2) in the past four seasons”
“After starting the season with the league’s ninth-highest overall pass rate over the first eight weeks, the Falcons have dropped all the way down to the 12th-lowest pass rate over the previous month of play.”
“Since the Falcons have become much more balanced later in the season, and since we know they don’t alter their offensive game plan heavily this year, quarterback Matt Ryan has averaged only 32.5 pass attempts per game over the previous month of play.”
“Along with the modest pass attempts total comes a 30th-ranked intended air yards per pass attempt value of just 6.7 (lower than Davis Mills and Ben Roethlisberger!).”
“The much more likely scenario involves two offenses that have largely struggled to get much of anything going all season playing to a relative slugfest (stalled drives, inefficiency in the red zone leading to field goals, and mistakes leading to turnovers).”
“Matt Ryan and whichever quarterback starts for the Lions remain largely out of consideration for me, personally, unless utilized in a game stack.”
Matt Ryan has failed to top 250 passing yards in five of his last six games while failing to top 33 pass attempts in seven of his last eight. As outlined in the NFL Edge, Atlanta has conducted a fundamental shift in play calling over the last month of action as they have dropped their pass rate to the 12th lowest in the NFL. This is not the same Matt Ryan we have come accustomed to over the last half decade, and without the likes of Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones, Ryan has really struggled this year to accumulate the yardage of years past with decreasing arm strength and explosive playmakers at his accompanying skilled positions. Ryan is completing 68% of his passes, good for tenth in the NFL this season, but his lack of intended air yards combined with arguably (is it?) worst supporting cast of explosive playmakers after the catch has left his fans wanting more when it comes to counting stats. With Detroit trotting out a non-Jared Goff starting QB this week, expect Atlanta to stick to their new normal and escape Week 16 with a close win at home.
Book: DraftKings (-115), BetMGM (-115)
“With Urban Meyer gone, James Robinson’s snaps jumped from 35 in Week 14 to 59 last week.”
“NYJ ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs (36.3).”
“Two teams with moderate situation-neutral paces of play and rush-pass rates that both increase pace of play and pass rates in negative game scripts – this is important to us in our quest for hidden upside.”
“The Jaguars hold a low 55% pass rate with the score within seven points this season (12th-lowest in the league).”
“James Robinson is back to being the bellcow of this backfield (84% snap rate last week without Carlos Hyde, in the first game without former head coach Urban Meyer).”
“Bevell and Schottenheimer’s offenses were built around dynamic run-blocking in the run game and deep passing through the air.”
“Since we know the Jaguars have been far more likely to lean on the run in competitive games, we have to approach the rest of this write-up through the lens of individual game flows. Should they stay competitive, or even play with a lead, we have to assume an increased rush rate primarily through James Robinson.”
“The matchup on the ground yields a well above average, and borderline elite 4.47 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jets defense ceding 36.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the most in the league by a wide margin (like, six full points per game more than the second-worst team).”
“Although not necessarily the likeliest outcomes from a real-world football perspective, the likeliest path to fantasy goodness for DFS comes via a game environment that the Jaguars can control. In this scenario, expect James Robinson to be utilized heavily in the best matchup he’ll have seen all season.”
”The Jets face the lowest opponent pass play rate in the NFL, leading to the most opponent RB rush attempts, the second most RB rushing yards, the most RB rushing touchdowns (five more than any other team).”
“Last week, James Robinson was over 50% owned in the Milly Maker and over 70% owned in high-dollar single-entry contests — and this week, he has an even better setup.”
“I have no faith in the Zach Wilson Jets (especially with no Elijah Moore or Corey Davis), which means I’m not afraid of the one game flow that could A) bury Robinson, and B) lead to the Jags wideouts becoming high-probability bets.”
“With that in mind, Robinson is very attractive to me, and no other pieces on the Jags stand out.”
I see this game much like JM; I have no faith in Zach Wilson to create a game script in which the Jacksonville Jaguars have to abandon the run- something they have shown the propensity to do in games they have trailed. On top of that, the Jets have been hit hard by Covid this week, with as many as 16 players including four defensive starters missing from the lineup in Week 16. On top of that, the NYJ head coach Robert Saleh will also miss this game due to the virus. The Jets could also be without multiple defensive starters due to injury. What a mess. The Jaguars have made it through the week relatively unscathed with just three players being placed on the C19 list. Laviska Shenault, one of the three players expected to be inactive, has had a small rushing role as of late, and can only be seen as another positive in Robinsons Week 16 favor. The Jets have given up averages of 26.5 RB rush attempts and over 120 rushing yards per game through 15 weeks, numbers we can expect James Robinson to accumulate the vast majority of with Carlos Hyde on season-ending IR. While this is a pace down game, possibly limiting the high end of Robinson’s production, we can safely expect more than enough efficiency and usage for Robinson to surpass the 74 rushing yards needed to cash this prop, as RB rooms have accomplished this feat quite comfortably in 13/15 games this season.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
