Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
The Betting Discord has been on absolute fire the last few weeks, so much so that members of the discord have put together a google sheet to track the groups success. Unsurprisingly, the results show the quality of information and communication being shared is on another level. Best of all, everyone has their niche! Anyone who wants to contribute to the OWS Discord Betting Tracker is welcome to DM their email on Discord for an editor link- everyone else is welcome to use this as a resource of fun bets to tail in the discord with the community!
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The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active over the last few weeks. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 15! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!
Cam Newton: Over 30.5 Rushing Yards
Result: Win (47 Rushing Yards)
Cam Newton had 10 rushes for 47 yards and a touchdown despite splitting time at quarterback with P.J. Walker (12 attempts, two rushes). Luckily, Newton did most of his rushing damage early, including a 12 yard touchdown run on the Carolina Panthers opening series. It is hard to trust Newton’s usage going forward with the potential to be cycled in and out of the lineup.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Under 249.5 Passing Yards
Result: Loss (296 Passing Yards)
Jimmy Garoppolo was cruising to this under until a 4th quarter comeback orchestrated by the Cincinnati Bengals took the game to overtime, scoring 14 unanswered points to end regulation. In his sole overtime possession, Garoppolo went 6/6 for 76 yards to finish with 296 passing yards and the win. Deebo Samuel was once again used sparingly in the passing game, operating as the team’s RB2, while Kittle continued to explode for 151 yards on 13 receptions (on 15 targets).
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
Week 13: +2.18 Units
Week 14: -0.1 Units
2021: +39.31 Units
Book: DraftKings -115
“SF season avg: (29.1 rush atts // 30.7 pass atts).”
“ATL allows the 9th most DK pts/g to RBs (25.9).”
“The 49ers are likely to control the game and impose their run-heavy, slow-paced approach.”
“The 49ers have PFF’s #1 graded run-blocking offensive line facing off against a Falcons defense that is ranked 31st in rush defense DVOA and 27th in yards per carry allowed.”
“This Falcons team is also one of the worst tackling teams in the league, ranking 24th in PFF grades as a tackling unit.”
“The game plan for the 49ers should be very straightforward here as they will play their normal style of ball – methodical with a ground-based approach while using creative play calling and schemes to attack the very “vanilla” Falcons defense in a variety of ways.”
“All of that considered, Jeff Wilson sets up as a premier GPP play to me this week. His situation is actually much better this week as far as game script and scoring opportunities set up.”
“If the 49ers control this game, Wilson could easily see 20 touches, and within the context of a game next Thursday, it would make sense if they don’t expose Deebo to a lot of pounding in the second half.”
“With Eli Mitchell out, Jeff Wilson should be the yardage-and-touchdown bet; but again, Deebo should steal some of the looks, and Hasty should soak up the pass game work.”
Jeff Wilson will once again suit up as San Francisco lead back with starter Elijah Mitchell unable to make it back for Week 15 with both head and leg injuries. The results so far have been subpar, but Wilson has handled the majority of RB carries during the two games he has started, rushing the ball 19 times in his first start and 13 times during his second. In the first game, Wilson was the workhorse in the first half before the 49ers allowed Trey Sermon an opportunity to salt the Jacksonville Jaguars away in Week 11. Last week, he handled all 13 running back rush attempts for 56 scoreless yards. This week, we can once again expect Wilson to carry the load versus a very weak Atlanta rushing defense giving up the 27th highest yards per carry as a nine-point home favorite. While play volume is somewhat of a concern here, there is a strong chance that Wilson is the one moving the chains. Lastly, the 49ers play Thursday night in Week 16, increasing the likelihood they avoid exposing Deebo Samuel to unnecessary rushing work deep into the contest.
Book: BetRivers (-114)
“Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16 // 12 // 24 // 10.”
“Hubbard’s yds as starter: 71 // 134 // 65 // 56 // 91 // 33.”
“The ground game is now a veritable mess, with Chuba Hubbard having been out-snapped by Ameer Abdullah each of the past two games (the first of which Christian McCaffrey got injured and the second of which the backfield was Chuba and Abdullah’s the entirety of the game).”
“The matchup on the ground yields a scary-low 3.90 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Buffalo defense that clamps down on “power runs up the gut,” but is susceptible to rushes off the edge (of which the Panthers don’t utilize heavily).”
“The Panthers backfield is a complete stay-away in a difficult matchup on the ground.”
Chuba Hubbard has 132 rushing attempts on the year for 460 yards and four touchdowns. Averaging 3.5 yards per carry as a 13 point road dog versus a Buffalo Bills team that suddenly is in need of wins is not a great place to find yourself as a running back. Coupled with an uncertain role, versus a top-graded defense, and Cam Newton as your quarterback (at least to start) and you may find it tough sledding as a projected early-down grinder. The Bills rush defense has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this year, especially in the second half, but most of that can be connected to the strength of their opponent. The Buffalo Bills have surrendered over 121 rush yards and over five yards per carry in four of their last eight games. In these games, Buffalo faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. In their other four games during this stretch, this defense has held opposing rushing attacks to under 3.2 yards per carry and no more than 70 rushing yards in any contest. In these games, the Bills faced the likes of the Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Saints. I think we can group the Panthers quite confidently in the latter grouping, forecasting the likely fate for this RB backfield in Week 15.
Book: BetMGM (-115)
“Robinson’s rush att in full games: 5 // 11 // 15 // 18 // 18 // 17 // 12 // 12 // 17 // 8 // 6.”
“The Jaguars seem to favor playing slow (20th in situational neutral pace) but speed way up in the second half (3rd in pace) because they’re always chasing points.”
“The Texans play slow (21st in situational neutral pace) but speed up in the second half (4th in pace) because they’re constantly losing.”
“Bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and playing a bad defense doesn’t make them good.”
This one is a bit thin, but as we all know, this has been a bit of a crazy week. I just can’t lay off betting an under that hasn’t been topped all season. I know the positives, no Carlos Hyde or Urban Meyer, but I think they are getting a little too inflated. While it is undeniable that James Robinson was in the head Meyer doghouse, the head coach seemed to legitimately have little knowledge of rotations or snap rates of his players. I’m not convinced we will get much pace up action in the second half this week, something that has become commonplace as both teams routinely find themselves needing to save face down by multiple scores, as neither team is likely to pull too far ahead and push the pace. As a result, I expect play volume to be somewhat limited and more in line with both teams’ first-half situation neutral pace of play. One of my favorite quotes from The Edge this year is “Bad offenses are bad offenses for a reason, and playing a bad defense doesn’t make them good”, and I expect both teams to struggle to maintain drives while being perfectly happy to shorten the game as much as possible in what may be the worse offensive game of the year for fantasy fans.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
