Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.
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Matt Ryan: Over 34.5 Pass Attempts
Result: Win (40 Pass Attempts)
Tua Tagovailoa: Over 33.5 Pass Attempts
Result: Win (40 Pass Attempts)
These lines got steamed a bit after a few hours but after an initial push settled in the 34.5-35.5 range across all sites. No matter what number you found during your process, Matt Ryan and Tua Tagovailoa delivered in a game The Edge writing crew discovered early. These teams threw the ball a combined 80 times with strong numbers across the board in a matchup that had both teams playing the type of football they prefer to execute. Matt Ryan continued his streak of 35+ attempts in every game this season, while Miami has thrown the ball 39+ times in 5/6.
Note: To help you get the best lines possible, OWS has added an @EdgeBets tag on Discord (nearing 100 members already!). To be added, look under the OWS Announcements channel and fire up those money bags emoji! The team will be using this tag moving forward to alert the community in real-time as bets are found throughout the week. Big shoutout to @Roto_Maven and @AmundDFS for getting this set up!
Justin Fields: Over 217.5 Passing Yards
Result: Loss (184 Passing Yards)
Justin Fields continued to look lost at the NFL level while throwing three interceptions, taking four sacks, and fumbling three times (losing two) last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game environment that set up perfectly for Fields to get there. The Bucs took a 21-0 lead into the second quarter and had multiple injuries across their back end, but it still wasn’t enough for Fields to show much passing prowess. While he did set a new career-high in attempts (32) out of necessity, the Bears continued to run the ball after the game was out of reach simply to save their “franchise” quarterback from himself and catch the plane home more quickly. The Bears next three weeks look tough from a scheduling perspective, but hey, maybe we’ll come back for another beating when Fields plays the feisty Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Unit
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
2021: +18.75 Units
All of my Personal Player Prop Bets are added Saturday Night and updated through Sunday Morning. I strictly bet player props, avoiding sides and totals, using my previously allocated Cash Game Bankroll. While Sportsbooks are gradually improving their Prop Bet Market with added Prop Bet content being produced in 2021, I believe there is and will continue to be strong +EV Bets available each week, with a noticeable edge when compared to DFS Cash Games. There will be no better time to make the switch from DFS Cash to the Prop Betting market. DM me through Discord (Jreasy) or on Twitter (@FriendofFantasy) with any questions on how to get started. Best of all, OWS has some great promo partnerships with numerous books with generous deposit bonuses for first-time users!
Book: DraftKings (-105), Bet Rivers (-113), Bet MGM (-111)
“Ingredients are here for an uptempo and high-volume affair as Miami throws at the highest rate in the NFL while the Bills play at one of the fastest paces in the league.”
“Miami will likely have little choice but to continue throwing the ball at a high rate and will need to get the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly if they want to keep him upright.”
“The Dolphins do have some playmakers among their skill players, but this Bills defense was built specifically with the Chiefs in mind and their scheme and personnel are tailored to neuter pass-heavy offenses.”
“The matchup on paper of a fast-paced, high-powered offense against a pass-happy bottom-feeder sets up for an extremely high play volume game.”
While Myles Gaskin should not be looked at as a staple in your DFS lineups, he is an interesting prop play with upside as backfield mate Malcolm Brown hit the IR this week with a quadriceps injury that will cost him at least the next three games. While this week’s matchup against the elite Buffalo Bills defense does not bode well for a ceiling game, there are things working in Gaskin’s favor that could lead to a 65+ yard day for the likely 1A back. Gaskin out carried expected Week 8 change-of-pace complement Salvon Ahmed, 15 to seven, after Brown’s departure last week (after five snaps). He has out targeted Ahmed 36 to 15 so far in 2021, including a 10 catch performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5. With the Dolphins expected to be trailing for much of Week 8, and the added focus on getting the ball out quickly after Tua Tagovailoa’s Week 2 injury against the Bills fresh in the coaching staffs minds, we can expect Miami to use Gaskin in the passing game close to the line of scrimmage as an extension of the running game and a blitz neutralizer. Expect Gaskin to handle the majority of the carries early as Miami tries to keep the Bills high-powered offense on the sidelines; in addition to getting second half passing game involvement as the Dolphins try to play catch up in this fast-paced affair.
Book: DraftKings (69.5 (-115)), Bet Rivers (-113), Bet MGM (69.5 (-118))
“Michael Carter has led the RBs in snaps and targets since Week 4. His touch count vs. the next highest RB on the team since then: 14-5 // 13-6 // 19-11.”
“CIN ranks 18th against RBs (25.3).”
“Michael Carter is underpriced for his role.”
“Michael Carter pulled away in usage last week, seeing a season-high 73% snap share.”
“White was also much more conservative than Wilson, and his frequent check-downs led to nine targets for Carter.”
“We can’t project nine targets again, can we? Well, Carter’s playing time spiked last week, he is known as a skilled receiving back, his team is expected to be losing, he looked like check-down Charlie last week, and the Bengals give up the seventh most receiving yards per game to RBs. Maybe we can.”
“If all three Jets backs are active this week, I may not be able to pull the trigger. But if it’s just Carter and one other guy, I’ll again expect Carter to see over 70% of the snaps, and the fact that he’ll likely be involved in the pass game against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most targets and receptions to the position makes him actually pretty interesting.”
The New York Jets will be without Telvin Coleman once again this week. It is also looking doubtful Corey Davis will be active after suffering an apparent injury in Thursday’s practice, and sitting out practice on Friday. Zach Wilson will also miss his first start, leading to Mike White making the first start of his career. Michael Carter has appeared to have taken over the now two-headed backfield in New York, and can expect to see over 70% of the snaps this week with Ty Johnson handling the remainder. Cincinnati funnels 24% of targets towards the running back position (#TheWorkBook) leading to over nine targets a game resulting in 339 yards on 53 receptions. While we don’t have much tape on Mike White, the tape we do have shows a check-down machine with a high completion percentage when targeting the running back position. If White does have a strength, it appears to match up well with a Cincinnati weakness; or, at least matches the way they wish to funnel opposing offenses.
Book: DraftKings (-110), Bet Rivers (-105), Bet MGM (-105)
“Ridiculously slow expected combined pace of play, particularly in the first half.”
“The Browns rank 30th in the NFL in situation-neutral pace of play, 30th in second half pace of play, and 31st in situation-neutral pass rate.”
“It takes a bit of ‘reading between the lines’ but I wouldn’t expect Chubb to return to more than his usual 50-55% snap rate workload.”
“When we combine the tendencies from each of these teams, we’re left with a scenario where the first half is likely to be played at a snail’s pace. Combined, these two teams run about 128 offensive plays per game this season.”
“I would feel a great deal more confident in Nick Chubb were he not coming off of two missed games, which, to me, leaves him less likely to see an increased workload when compared to his seasonal usage.”
If we rewinded to Wednesday of Week 7, before D’Ernest Johnson made the most of a primetime Thursday night opportunity, in which he broke on 24 opportunities resulting in 168 total yards and a touchdown, I would be excited for Nick Chubb to come back to the Cleveland Browns and handle a massive workload. Unfortunately, D’Ernest Johnson looked more than capable to replace injured 1B back Kareem Hunt’s workload, especially in Chubb’s first game back, versus a very strong Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line, and coming off of a multi-week calf injury. In a game between two offenses responsible for an average of 63:18 minutes of possession per game, we can expect a dip in season norms for most players in what is sure to be a slow-paced slugfest. The Steelers average just 21.2 running back carries per game, with just 55.3 total plays allowed (Week 8 low). While Baker Mayfield is a boon for the Cleveland Browns offensive efficiency, it will be hard for Chubb to accumulate 19 carries with both play total and snap percentage concerns working against him, despite not carrying an injury designation into this matchup.
Good luck this week! Be sure to check out my personal player props bet for a wide range of +EV Bets, as well as check the Discord early next week for the EdgeBets in real-time!
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