Thursday, Dec 8th
Bye Week:
Saints
Colts
Commanders
Packers
Bears
Falcons

Dummy Grid 5.22

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max


OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


Angles Pod

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

Correlated Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.4K

Tom Brady
Jeff Wilson
Raheem Mostert
Justin Jefferson
Chris Godwin
Khalil Shakir
Cade Otton
Zay Jones
Cowboys

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Buy-In:
Free

Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:
150 Edge Points (good for two free DFS Education courses!) + ‘Discord Blue’ color in Discord!

Join Here


Blue Chips

No individual spot or player qualifies as a “Blue Chip” for me this week. Let’s jump to the “Light Blues” >>

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Josh Allen + Singletary + Shakir
Cost: $17.5K DK // Not As Sharp On FD
Story:

“The Bills’ offense produces, with limited weaponry available”

Why It Works:

Explain this one to me. As of this writeup, Josh Allen is projected to be the highest-owned quarterback on the slate, at 18.9%. Meanwhile, the combined ownership of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, and Dawson Knox is 16.0%.

How It Works:

Dawson Knox is not going to play this weekend (he’s currently projected at 3.0% ownership, which will obviously fall to 0), and McKenzie appears unlikely to clear his concussion. This gives us a more condensed target distribution for the Bills than we typically have, with Diggs // Davis // Shakir the likely focal points through the air. It is unbelievably rare for a high-priced quarterback — even one with mega rushing upside — to be “the quarterback who wins you a tourney” and to not bring at least one pass catcher with him, and the fact that we have a weekend in which the field is apparently willing to bet on that unlikely scenario (“Josh Allen smashes; no Bills pass catchers are worth rostering with him”) gives us a really nice edge, both in playing Bills pass catchers as one-offs independent of Allen rosters, and in stacking up some Bills pieces with Allen.

To be honest, I would be fine stacking up any of Singletary // Davis // Shakir with Allen (you could add Diggs to this list as well — though you know where I stand on him as a DFS option in this offense), but the pricing with Shakir added to this build makes it very attractive.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

Hurts + Goedert
Cost: $12.8K DK // $14.7K FD
Story:

“The Eagles keep doing what they’ve been doing…and the Cardinals keep doing what they’ve been doing”

Why It Works:

This stack is something of a “last in line” option for ways to stack this game — and it makes a lot more sense as a “top option” from this game than most people will realize

How It Works:

Remember when Davante Adams was 50% owned against Arizona and put up two catches for 12 yards? Total fluke, obviously…but then, remember one week later when Cooper Kupp went 4-44-0 against Arizona? And remember how Kupp has failed to top 90 yards in only two of his 21 regular season games with Matthew Stafford(!!!)…and how the other game in which he failed to top 90 yards was a 5-64-0 outing on 13 targets against the Cardinals last year? Meanwhile, remember how Travis Kelce destroyed the Cardinals in Week 1, and everyone was like, “Yup, this is clearly the worst defense in the NFL.” And then remember how Darren Waller went 6-50-1 against them for his best fantasy score of the season? And how Higbee chipped in 4-61-0 against the Cardinals in Week 3? Arizona ranks 11th in DVOA against the run, and they have quietly allowed the seventh-fewest WR yards after allowing a respectable 13th-fewest last season. I don’t think this defense is good, but I do think it’s better than people realize (which isn’t a high bar to clear, given that most people are looking at this defense as the legitimate worst in the league).

The Eagles are a special team at the moment, and I would be fine trusting this Philly offense in any way you want to stack things up; but Hurts + Goedert makes plenty of sense on a week in which the field will be looking toward other potential pathways for this game to take off.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

Bridgewater + Mostert + Tyreek

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Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Josh Allen || Jalen Hurts || Justin Herbert || Tom Brady || Teddy Bridgewater || (Carson Wentz)

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM