“This week, Howard runs into one of the toughest matchups he will see all year (last season, only three teams allowed fewer targets to tight ends than the 49ers, and only four teams allowed fewer yards). Howard has matchup-busting ability, but by the research, we should expect an even heavier dose of targets than normal to flow to Evans and Godwin. ”
These stats seem very situational to who the 49ers faced last year. With their 3 division opponents rostering Everett for the Rams, RSJ for the Cards and Dissley or whoever for the Seahawks (who all barely touched the box score in their 6 games), this stat may inflate the Niners’ prowess vs TE.
The other TEs they faced in 2018:
Vikings – Kyle Rudolph (declining)
Lions – Luke Wilson (uh yeah)
Chiefs – Kelce (went 8 for 114)
Chargers – Antonio Gates (old af)
Packers – Jimmy Graham (old … went 5 for 104)
Raiders – Jared Cook (good … went 2 for 20 but Raiders lost on MNF 34-3 here lol)
Giants – Evan Engram (talented … 4 for 46)
Bucs – Cam Brate (Howard was hurt I believe … 3 for 26)
Broncos – Matt LaCosse (went 1 for 3)
Bears – Trey Burton (went 5 for 30)
Also, per @AdamChernoff the Niners run a Cover 3 and one of the best ways to attack this scheme is down the seam with an athletic TE. OJ Howard is one of the best in the business and ready to explode this year.
Overall, I think we shouldn’t be so low on Howard. Curious what JM has to say here
EDIT: I think a fair counter point here is Greg Williams’ secondary talent was much better in CLE and communication breakdowns are more likely early on in the year as he’s installing his defense
My main concern for John Brown to have a Ceiling game is Greg Williams focuses so much on keeping a safety very deep to stop the big play. This leaves the under area vulnerable which we saw lead to big games from Antonio Brown and others in the past. This leads me to think Cole Beasley would be a better option if John Brown is running deep routes and clearing out the D
Two topics for me on this game that lead me to thinking it will be lower scoring. Also, the script of last years first game seems quite likely where Bears open the scoring and Packers climb back to a lead.
Nagy’s Offense:
His offense caught the league by surprise last year with all the speed and creativity. Bears were one of the best 1st quarter teams as they heavily scripted the beginning of games and practiced the script a lot. Trubisky was very successful during the scripted portion and much less effective after. Here are his QB Ratings by quarter –
1Q – 5th Overall, at 111.7
2Q – 23rd overall at 85.6
3Q – 19th in the NFL at 88.7
4Q – 17th overall, up to a 95.7 (115 in the final 7min of 4Q and OTs)
I believe Pettine and the Packers D will be much more ready this time around for the scripted opening with a years worth of tape and Amos in their building.
Packers Defense:
@AdamChernoff is very high on the Packers, particularly their defensive improvements. Going to list out some of the additions, key stats on those players from him, and other tidbits.
Defensive Coach
Pettine will be in his second year coaching this D. Pettine came up through the ranks as a coach in Baltimore from 2002 to 2008 with Rex Ryan (D Coord at the time). Pettine became Rex’s D Coord through the successful early years with the Jets and one year as Bills D Coord where his defense their single-season record for sacks with 57.
I’m definitely a fan of his and believe he will be able to really build upon that first year with all this new talent.
Additions
– Preston Smith
– Za’Darius Smith
– Adrian Amos
– Rashan Gary
– Darnell Savage
OLB Preston Smith – Smith is an absolute monster when it comes to putting pressure on quarterbacks. In 2017 he led the league with a 15.9% pressure rate, and in 2018, he produced a career high 54 pressures and finished fourth in pressure rate. He’s had 24 sacks in his first 4 seasons
OLB Za’Darius Smith – He only started six games but managed to generate 8.5 sacks on the season. More importantly, in addition to Smith [Preston], Za’Darius is extremely good at getting a body on the quarterback. He finished 2018 with 25 quarterback hits which is equal to J.J. Watt despite his limited starts
12th Overall Pick OLB Rashan Gary – Mike Smith the linebackers coach spoke higher about Gary after offseason workouts than any player on the roster. At 6’5” 277 with 4.55 speed and a 38 inch vert, it is impossible not to. Again in line with Preston Smith, Mike Smith (too many Smith’s) said that he was not worried about Gary only getting 3.5 sacks in college last season, because of his ability to bring pressure on the QB every down.
FS Adrian Amos – Amos is another enormous signing by the Packers in the offseason. In 2018, he had 9 pass breakups, 73 tackles and graded out as a top 10 cover safety by PFF. He was given $11M for signing a $37M deal and now takes over at the safety spot in Mike Pettine’s defense.
He also should bring key intel about the Bears, particularly Matt Nagy’s offense, that will certainly have an impact.
21st Overall Pick SS Darnell Savage – Immediately upon arriving with the team in spring, Savage was put into the number one defense at free safety. Both Davante Adams and Matt Lafluer have publicly praised his performance in spring work citing how quickly he picked up Mike Pettine’s scheme.
“Cornerback is weak”:
It seems like their weakest position yes but they’ve invested a lot of high picks here. Jaire Alexander (2018 1st round pick) had some great moments last year shutting down top tier WRs. Kevin King (2017 2nd round pick) and Josh Jackson (2018 2nd round pick) will man the other side.
Vikings at Bears, Week 10
Expect Bill Lazor to bring some tempo to the Bears O tonight which is where Foles excels. Gives the Bears O a chance not to suck tonight :).
Sources:
– first 5-10min: https://thesimplehandicap.libsyn.com/the-simple-handicap-november-16th-2020
– https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2020/11/13/what-we-think-we-know-about-bill-lazor-the-play-caller-prioritizing-rhythm-and-tempo-marrying-concepts-more/
49ers at Buccaneers, Week 1
“This week, Howard runs into one of the toughest matchups he will see all year (last season, only three teams allowed fewer targets to tight ends than the 49ers, and only four teams allowed fewer yards). Howard has matchup-busting ability, but by the research, we should expect an even heavier dose of targets than normal to flow to Evans and Godwin. ”
These stats seem very situational to who the 49ers faced last year. With their 3 division opponents rostering Everett for the Rams, RSJ for the Cards and Dissley or whoever for the Seahawks (who all barely touched the box score in their 6 games), this stat may inflate the Niners’ prowess vs TE.
The other TEs they faced in 2018:
Vikings – Kyle Rudolph (declining)
Lions – Luke Wilson (uh yeah)
Chiefs – Kelce (went 8 for 114)
Chargers – Antonio Gates (old af)
Packers – Jimmy Graham (old … went 5 for 104)
Raiders – Jared Cook (good … went 2 for 20 but Raiders lost on MNF 34-3 here lol)
Giants – Evan Engram (talented … 4 for 46)
Bucs – Cam Brate (Howard was hurt I believe … 3 for 26)
Broncos – Matt LaCosse (went 1 for 3)
Bears – Trey Burton (went 5 for 30)
Also, per @AdamChernoff the Niners run a Cover 3 and one of the best ways to attack this scheme is down the seam with an athletic TE. OJ Howard is one of the best in the business and ready to explode this year.
Overall, I think we shouldn’t be so low on Howard. Curious what JM has to say here
Bills at Jets, Week 1
EDIT: I think a fair counter point here is Greg Williams’ secondary talent was much better in CLE and communication breakdowns are more likely early on in the year as he’s installing his defense
My main concern for John Brown to have a Ceiling game is Greg Williams focuses so much on keeping a safety very deep to stop the big play. This leaves the under area vulnerable which we saw lead to big games from Antonio Brown and others in the past. This leads me to think Cole Beasley would be a better option if John Brown is running deep routes and clearing out the D
Packers at Bears, Week 1
Two topics for me on this game that lead me to thinking it will be lower scoring. Also, the script of last years first game seems quite likely where Bears open the scoring and Packers climb back to a lead.
Nagy’s Offense:
His offense caught the league by surprise last year with all the speed and creativity. Bears were one of the best 1st quarter teams as they heavily scripted the beginning of games and practiced the script a lot. Trubisky was very successful during the scripted portion and much less effective after. Here are his QB Ratings by quarter –
1Q – 5th Overall, at 111.7
2Q – 23rd overall at 85.6
3Q – 19th in the NFL at 88.7
4Q – 17th overall, up to a 95.7 (115 in the final 7min of 4Q and OTs)
I believe Pettine and the Packers D will be much more ready this time around for the scripted opening with a years worth of tape and Amos in their building.
Packers Defense:
@AdamChernoff is very high on the Packers, particularly their defensive improvements. Going to list out some of the additions, key stats on those players from him, and other tidbits.
Defensive Coach
Pettine will be in his second year coaching this D. Pettine came up through the ranks as a coach in Baltimore from 2002 to 2008 with Rex Ryan (D Coord at the time). Pettine became Rex’s D Coord through the successful early years with the Jets and one year as Bills D Coord where his defense their single-season record for sacks with 57.
I’m definitely a fan of his and believe he will be able to really build upon that first year with all this new talent.
Additions
– Preston Smith
– Za’Darius Smith
– Adrian Amos
– Rashan Gary
– Darnell Savage
OLB Preston Smith – Smith is an absolute monster when it comes to putting pressure on quarterbacks. In 2017 he led the league with a 15.9% pressure rate, and in 2018, he produced a career high 54 pressures and finished fourth in pressure rate. He’s had 24 sacks in his first 4 seasons
OLB Za’Darius Smith – He only started six games but managed to generate 8.5 sacks on the season. More importantly, in addition to Smith [Preston], Za’Darius is extremely good at getting a body on the quarterback. He finished 2018 with 25 quarterback hits which is equal to J.J. Watt despite his limited starts
12th Overall Pick OLB Rashan Gary – Mike Smith the linebackers coach spoke higher about Gary after offseason workouts than any player on the roster. At 6’5” 277 with 4.55 speed and a 38 inch vert, it is impossible not to. Again in line with Preston Smith, Mike Smith (too many Smith’s) said that he was not worried about Gary only getting 3.5 sacks in college last season, because of his ability to bring pressure on the QB every down.
FS Adrian Amos – Amos is another enormous signing by the Packers in the offseason. In 2018, he had 9 pass breakups, 73 tackles and graded out as a top 10 cover safety by PFF. He was given $11M for signing a $37M deal and now takes over at the safety spot in Mike Pettine’s defense.
He also should bring key intel about the Bears, particularly Matt Nagy’s offense, that will certainly have an impact.
21st Overall Pick SS Darnell Savage – Immediately upon arriving with the team in spring, Savage was put into the number one defense at free safety. Both Davante Adams and Matt Lafluer have publicly praised his performance in spring work citing how quickly he picked up Mike Pettine’s scheme.
“Cornerback is weak”:
It seems like their weakest position yes but they’ve invested a lot of high picks here. Jaire Alexander (2018 1st round pick) had some great moments last year shutting down top tier WRs. Kevin King (2017 2nd round pick) and Josh Jackson (2018 2nd round pick) will man the other side.