Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
Penix is set to make his NFL debut after being a surprise top 10 pick in the draft. I’d be lying if I said this play was anything but speculative. I have no idea how Penix is going to look and you shouldn’t trust anyone who tells you they know. What I do know is that uncertainty is often the basis for large DFS wins, and that the Falcons are still trying to win the division, which must mean they believe Penix gives them their best chance to win now. If the Falcons were already eliminated, I’d look at this play differently since they might be turning to Penix to see what they have for the future. It’s not an easy decision to bench a guy you just gave a nine-figure deal to during a playoff race. There is no way Atlanta is making that decision unless Penix is showing them something in practice. So, what do we know about Penix? We know that he was a big-armed gunslinger in college who loved to chuck it down the field. We know that he’s facing the Giants who have been abused (29th in DVOA) through the air. We know that he’s playing at home, in a must win game, and is priced like a punt. We know that because of all the uncertainty around him, the other quality options at QB, and the likely popularity of Bijan Robinson ($8,100), that Penix will probably be moderately owned. This is a classic “play it before everyone sees it” spot. If playing Penix, I prefer stacking him with Darnell Mooney ($5,500) over Drake London ($6,400). Mooney is coming off a one target dud, but he played 91% of the snaps and has been used as a deep threat. If Penix hits, it’s probably because he connected on a bomb, and there is a good chance that bomb will go to Mooney. I’ve lost before, and I’m not afraid to lose again. Remember the saying, “What do you win when you’re right?” Penix has the chance to win you a lot of money if you’re right. Be brave. Play Penix.
