Chiefs (

22.25) at
49ers (

24.75)

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• In a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl, Kansas City will travel to the West Coast for a showdown between current division leaders.
• San Francisco is playing with extra rest after the Week 6 Thursday night win over Seattle, and the status of the 49ers’ running back situation for this week is up in the air.
• The Chiefs are coming off their Week 6 bye and are the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC.
• Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 in the league in raw pace of play and both defenses are in the top 10 in DVOA.
• Both offenses have had significant struggles turning drives into touchdowns and rank 26th and 29th, respectively, in red-zone touchdown conversion rate.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

As we have discussed throughout this season, the Chiefs are not the team we know from past years that was a high-flying one and relied heavily on their offense to carry them. Rather, they are a team who thrives on their defense controlling the game and keeping opponents in check while their offense picks their spots, takes care of the ball, and finds ways to make winning plays in the fourth quarter if their opponent keeps things close. The approach and mindset of Patrick Mahomes has evolved significantly, as he controls games and seemingly never makes back-breaking mistakes that we see almost every other QB stumble into at some point. Mahomes almost certainly still has it in him to let it rip at a moment’s notice, but the Chiefs have yet to face a team that has put them in position where he needed to.

Kansas City currently ranks seventh in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), 18th in raw pass rate, and 24th in seconds per snap, AKA raw pace of play, which are all down significantly from past years. Their no-huddle rate is also much lower than we have seen in some past seasons, as they tend to milk the play clock and control things rather than trying to run opponents off the field. This offense looks significantly different right now than was expected heading into the season, as they do not have wide receivers Rashee Rice or Hollywood Brown and are without star running back Isiah Pacheco for at least a few more weeks. The lower metrics in terms of pace and pass rate almost certainly have a lot to do with their personnel issues and adjusting to the reality of their current situation.

This week against the 49ers, the Chiefs are likely to be pushed to score points more than they have been in the past few weeks. After holding the Falcons, Chargers, and Saints to 40 combined points in Weeks 3 through 5, they will face a 49ers offense that has scored 23 or more points in five of six games and ranks seventh in the league in offensive DVOA. Veteran RB Kareem Hunt and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster have emerged as staples of the offense, as they have the trust of the coaching staff and are not the stars they once were but still have enough juice in the tank to make the most of their opportunities. In their Week 5 win over New Orleans, Hunt posted 117 yards from scrimmage on 28 touches and JuJu turned eight targets into seven receptions and 130 receiving yards. Kansas City’s offensive line ranks fourth in Adjusted Line Yards at 5.05 yards per attempt, while San Francisco’s run defense has been just mediocre and its pass defense has been their strength. We should expect the usual balanced and methodical approach from Kansas City and for Hunt, JuJu, and Travis Kelce to soak up the majority of the offensive usage. There is a chance we see rookie WR Xavier Worthy’s role increase and the Chiefs could find more creative ways to get him involved coming out of their bye week. They will almost certainly have to test the defense over the top and stress them with Worthy’s speed via jet sweeps and quick hitters if they want to create room to operate for everyone else. The 49ers’ defense is too good and athletic to think Kansas City can do what it’s done to other teams without creating more of a downfield threat.

How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::