Willing To Lose 9.23

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

We’ve preached in this space and others before about the different stages of a DFS player. Concisely, we have the play all the good plays stage, then the play the good plays but account for ownership, then the play only the low owned plays, and ultimately more mature stages of blending together your own building styles, with anticipating others’ builds, and mastering contest selection. Since you subscribe to OWS, it’s likely you fall into this last category. But if we’re all in a mature stage of DFS play, then how can we navigate the DFS waters to consistently win? In a simple answer, by embracing the Goldilocks Principle.

If you’re a loyal reader of Willing to Lose, then you’ve read this here before but the story of Goldilocks and the Three Little Bears goes back to the mid-19th century. The Goldilocks Principle refers to finding the bowl of porridge that is just the right temperature to eat. The little girl (Goldilocks) finds the right bowl only after trying other bowls that are either too hot or too cold. It’s a classic case of trial and error, that in my opinion has just about the same level of application in life as some other principles or proverbial sayings such as the 80/20 Rule (Pareto Principle) or “Everything in moderation, even moderation.”

Week 9 overview

To illustrate how the Goldilocks Principle can come into play as a DFS player, think through how you’ve progressed through these DFS stages in your journey, and identify how your mind would build rosters on any given slate. Since you came here to read about Week 9’s Sunday Main Slate, let’s apply these labels to help us see how this all shapes up:

• Too Hot Approach: Playing the chalk, including loading up on the Eagles and Cowboys game with the highest total, and assuming past performance will dictate future outcomes.
• Too Cold Approach: Team stacking or game stacking a low total team or matchup, like the Commanders // Patriots, or going heavy on sub-20 point total offenses. Building based too much on ownership alone (embracing all low-owned plays) and fading too many smash matchups.
• Just Right: A mix of hot and cold approaches. Embracing some chalk, like always, but leaning into low-owned players in positive matchups. Identifying games that fit into the not-quite-the-best, but sneaky-good category for potential shootouts. Blending it all together to build a roster masterpiece.

Welcome to Week 9, where we will strive to build those rosters just right…

Lamar + Bateman + Andrews + Metcalf (+ Walker)