Willing To Lose 7.22

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Welcome to the meat and potatoes edition of Willing to Lose! It’s Week 7, and we’ve had some hors d’oeuvres, enjoyed the appetizers, and dabbled with an entree or two. But now comes the main course we’re all looking forward to, and we’re primed and ready to crush it.

This is a silly analogy, but a fair one. By Week 7, we’ve made some mistakes, we’ve learned about critical strategy, we’ve had some wins and losses, and we should be in a great place to build our best lineups yet. As we look at this slate, it shapes up nicely, in my opinion. So many places to attack, and like last week, these seem to be places where the field may not be. Let’s get right to it.

Tom Brady + Mike Evans (and much more)

Brady is one of those people who turn red things green. Despite losing a few Super Bowls, and an allegedly impending divorce, it’s safe to say Brady has done pretty well in this world. And for people like him, even when the going is tough (which it seems to be right now), we have to believe he’ll catch a break. Then we look at the NFL schedule and see . . . Carolina Panthers coming up as his next opponent. After last week’s debacle in Pittsburgh, it’s undeniable right now the team that would be first on any opponent’s wish list right now is the 1-5 Panthers. That’s just the way the cookie crumbles for Mr. Brady. And we should be capitalizing on this situation in DFS this week.

Narratives aside, this is the absolute perfect setup. And this week, we should let others spend time questioning “how much will the Bucs let off the gas” and “will they run up the score.” The answer is an unequivocal yes. And even if Tampa does not choose to play with pace (1st in the NFL), the damage that Brady and Co. can do in three quarters still justifies a click on this low-scoring slate. There are many, many examples of this type of game in Brady’s career, but back in Week 16 of the 2020 season, Brady led a 47-7 rout of the 5-9 hapless Detroit Lions. In that game, he threw only 27 times, but for 348 yards and four touchdowns . . . in the first half (tweet for context).

This game sets up as a perfect team stack opportunity. Papy wrote this up in context and in great detail in the NFL Edge, but Brady + Mike Evans is the starting point here. Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otton (if Cameron Brate remains out) are all also viable. The Bucs defense can also be played here. We don’t need to drop any Panthers bring-backs, but I don’t have to tell you it’s now just DJ Moore if you go there (as I am writing this, the CMC news breaks!).