Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Picture a snowball rolling downhill. It is slow to get started, then builds both speed and size and gains momentum as it rolls, fast. In the first few feet, the direction and shape of the snowball can change but once it gets going, there is no turning back. The bigger it gets, the faster it goes, and the more it will continue on its path until it reaches flat ground. This might not be my best analogy, but it is what comes to mind when we think about the small habits we form and how difficult it can be to break them. The more small habits we have, the more difficult it is to change our course of action, alter our thinking frameworks, and practice in a new way. We’re already a snowball rolling quickly downhill, so any changes in trajectory require a lot of brainpower and will. This was what I felt like this week.
I try each season to take some sort of detox from the NFL news cycle. It’s constant and relentless, and it shapes my thinking whether I like it or not. After a not-so-successful Week 10, I decided Week 11 was a good time to do this. A few days off X (will always be Twitter), I didn’t consume any football-related emails, or newsletters, or proactively visit any football websites. I realized how much this process has evolved over the years, and now how difficult this was to pull off Sunday through Thursday this week. We’re at the point now where we have so many people smarter than me devoting countless hours to pushing out phenomenal content, and while some of the data points are invaluable, it’s also easy to fail to realize how this shapes our thinking in a given week. When we see a strong tweet, for instance, about why Player X succeeds vs man coverage or zone coverage, why Player Y should have four touchdowns this season but holding calls held him back, or why Player Z averages more EPA per play in this formation during a day game, it’s all helpful – but much of this can be noise. These data points will lead you to play these plays, but if and when you lose on Sunday, do you message those content providers and tell them why they were wrong? No, of course not. Because YOU are the one choosing to listen to their small indicators on why or why not we should click on a certain player’s name.
I found that entering Week 11, I was in need of clear thinking. A small piece of this was inspired by the book, Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish, which I am now reading (solid read, btw). Everyone has their way to go about building a clear thinking framework (meditation, the great outdoors, etc.) but for me, I simply felt I needed to log off for a few days. One of the basic foundations of proper clear thinking, according to Parrish, is to establish a process (framework) at your best that works well for you at your worst. In other words, we can strive for a process that will help us succeed over time, while also using the same process to avoid significant failure. Life is all about success, of course, but it’s also about avoiding failures. Our greatest achievements impact us, but our greatest failures can impact us more. So as you read below, just know any analysis is coming from a place of clear thinking. I went through my process, without influence, to land on strategies that could lead to success but also will hopefully avoid failure.
By doing this, I am practicing a handful of the Willing to Lose tenets from this season. Back in Week 1, I talked about simplicity, just cutting through the noise and playing your guys. Trust your instincts and processes to build for first place along the way. Sometimes, when searching for inspiration to build winning lineups, it could be as simple as price, matchup, and regression. We may not need to dive into rates over expectation, air yards, and success per dropbacks. We are also allowed to trust our eyes. I just checked, and that’s approved! Just make sure you are bringing in some data to support your gut (i.e. the Goldilocks Principle). Find the right balance of quantitative with qualitative. Use your hindsight to reflect and build on your predictions to get right what you previously got wrong. Finally, always use your individual filter to build your rosters, and evaluate the writers you read. They (we) are human, too.
Looking at a few macro factors on this slate, there aren’t many games that jump off the paper as having the potential for a back-and-forth, point-scoring bonanza. The Cardinals // Texans is one, Seattle // Rams another, and maybe the Bears // Lions or Chargers // Packers can mix it up, as well. As I scanned the unknowns here, and realized how heavy some team stacks will be (Dallas, Miami, San Francisco), I kept coming back to this Arizona and Houston game. Over the last few weeks, we’ve learned who C.J. Stroud is. He’s a baller. Regardless of a healthy offensive line, or a healthy wide receiver room, he will find a way. With Kyler Murray back in the fold for Arizona, their situation neutral pass rate moved from 47% on the season to 63%, and Murray also scampered for a touchdown with his legs. Translation: two talented quarterbacks that can go blow-for-blow in the right game environment.
You all know by now how much I love game stacks. But, although I’m recommending one here, I didn’t set out to land here. With Kyler back, that obviously should help future Cardinals game to hit the over, but we also have two running backs in Devin Singletary (assuming Pierce misses again) and James Conner who should be playing over 75% of the offensive snaps (Conner to grow on his 63% last week in his return from injured reserve). In the words of the great Kirk Cousins, ‘we like that!’ As we look for any game stack, we also want condensity across the pass-catcher target trees. On the Cardinals side it’s really Brown, Wilson, and McBride, while the Texans could be down Nico Collins and Noah Brown, and if they are, it’s the Tank Dell, Bob Woods, and Dalton Schultz show (note: if Nico plays, he enters this conversation).
Texans games in the last two weeks have provided totals of 76 (Bucs) and 57 (Bengals) points. They are producing big plays as an offense on the ground and through the air. The matchup with the Cardinals yields somewhat of a run funnel, but in reality, the Cardinals defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Houston will score, the question is simply how. And although seeing the 30+ carries Devin Singletary had last week, and the juicy ground matchup again this week should force us to question how much production can come via the air, Stroud has proved he can hit in any matchup. It will sound crazy, but we’ve seen this win big tournaments before. One of Kyler or Stroud with two of their pass-catchers (Dell and Schultz, or Hollywood and McBride), alongside at least both Conner and Singletary leads to a simplified build where this game needs to hit 70+ points across these guys to pay off.
