Week 12 Matchups

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00:00 :: Dolphins // Jets
09:56 :: Cardinals // Patriots
22:53 :: Panthers // Vikings
35:09 :: Browns // Jaguars
44:01 :: Titans // Colts
54:07 :: Giants // Bengals
64:32 :: Raiders // Falcons
77:02 :: Chargers // Bills
92:04 :: 49ers // Rams
102:02 :: Saints // Broncos
113:31 :: Chiefs // Bucs

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Kickoff Thursday, Nov 26th 12:30pm Eastern

Texans (
27.5) at

Lions (
24.5)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
23rd DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
29th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
19th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
26th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
7th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Wednesday Note 1 ::

The Ravens // Steelers game has officially been moved off the Thanksgiving slate.

This is disappointing, but is not entirely unexpected; in fact, all three games (and the DFS+ Interpretation segment for all three games) were written against the backdrop of this possibility.

With a full weekend of games to get ready for on our end (we're hard at work on the Main Slate NFL Edge!), we'll mostly keep the writeups situated as they currently stand :: with the first two games broken down in their respective areas, and with our comprehensive short-slate Interpretation segment now . . .

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Kickoff Thursday, Nov 26th 4:30pm Eastern

WFT (
21.75) at

Cowboys (
24.25)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Washington Run D
11th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
20th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
2nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
23rd DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
24th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
14th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
32nd DVOA/5th Yards per pass

By JM >>

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

As explored last week, the Cowboys have transformed their offense since losing Dak Prescott, shifting from one of the pass-heaviest teams in football into one of the run-heaviest, with only eight teams running the ball more often than Dallas on early downs with the score within seven points (the only teams running the ball more often on early downs with the score within seven points since Dak went down are the Titans, Jay Gruden’s Jags, the 49ers, the Patriots, the Vikings, Jon Gruden’s Raiders, the Ravens . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
26.25) at

Jets (
18.75)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
23rd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
27th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
6th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
28th DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Jets Run D
9th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
22nd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
28th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
13th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Miami likely to control this game with their defense; chances of that lessen a bit should Sam Darnold return for the JetsLow volume, highly concentrated offense for Miami; moderate volume, clear path of least resistance for the Jets (again, boosted by the return of Sam Darnold)Overall game environment is not one to attack, but a few pieces can be considered here; overall, not a lot to love

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins have played fairly similarly with both Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback this year, looking to control . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Cards (
25.75) at

Patriots (
24.75)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
14th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
7th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
10th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
32nd DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
17th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
19th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
16th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

New England's approach is likely to be heavily influenced by what the Cardinals are able to do on offenseThe Patriots are quietly facing the highest opponent rush play rate in the leagueThis game could play out a few different ways......and these ways might not translate into DFS production in quite the way the field is likely to assume

How New England Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have not made it a secret that they don’t trust Cam Newton to carry games for them with his arm this year, with only . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
23.5) at

Vikings (
26.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
21st DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
6th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
23rd DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
27th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
13th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
10th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

We’re likely to see below average total offensive plays run from scrimmage hereIt’s Dalvin’s world, we’re all just living in itKeep a close eye on Adam Thielen’s status, who tested positive for Covid Monday only to test negative Tuesday

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Carolina’s offense is tailored to the strengths of whichever quarterback is under center. Typically, with Teddy Bridgewater under center, this offense is designed around short to intermediate passing and the run game. As we saw last week with PJ Walker under center (and . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
27.5) at

Jaguars (
20.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
18th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
19th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
25th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
26th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
22nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
31st DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
12th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Both of these teams want to win games on the groundCleveland is less likely to abandon this strategy when falling behind...and they are less likely to fall behindJacksonville will continue running as long as the game is within seven points, but they're quicker to shift to the passOne question that matters in this one: how equipped are the Browns to build a really big lead?

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Has there ever been an easier segment to write up?

With the thought in mind that many teams use the first . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
24) at

Colts (
27)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
16th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
12th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
30th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
16th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Colts Run D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
2nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
8th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
4th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Tennessee (unfortunately for them, as they are battling the Colts for AFC South supremacy) doesn't set up all that well in this matchup; their best path to victory is a lower-scoring game or a turnover-heavy game from the ColtsThe Colts, on the other hand, set up rather well in this spot, both on offense and defenseThis game has one of the higher Over/Unders on the slate......but this doesn't necessarily mean that fantasy goodness abounds

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Let’s start with a disclaimer here: It . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
25.5) at

Bengals (
19)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
16th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
24th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
20th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
8th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
27th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
29th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Expect the Bengals to continue to be forced into a pass-heavy game plan, with reduced efficiency with Brandon Allen at quarterback
  • Giants should be able to run their ideal game plan here, with lower pass rates and heavier run game involvement
  • Likely sloppy game overall, with only Wayne Gallman carrying a solid pairing of floor and ceiling

How New York Will Try To Win ::

We know by now how the Giants play down to their opponent, looking to simply keep the game close until the fourth quarter in an attempt to win it late. They are likelier than a standard week to have success in that game plan here, against an opponent that should have troubles sustaining drives due to key injuries to Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow (note: After this writeup was completed, Gio Bernard was also added to the injury report with a concussion; if Gio misses, Samaje Perine will likely see 15 to 18 low-upside touches). The Giants have really subdued the ceiling on Daniel Jones this year, who checks into Week 12 with only three games over 40 pass attempts over the team’s first ten games (with the Giants passing at ridiculously low 46.4% rate over the previous three weeks). Look for more of the same in a game in which the Giants shouldn’t fall behind early.

On the ground, expect a 60/20/20 running back opportunity split with Wayne Gallman leading the way, followed by change of pace back Alfred Morris and third down specialist Dion Lewis. Morris has seen exactly eight or nine rush attempts each week over the past three games and Lewis hasn’t seen over five running back opportunities since a Week 2 game against the Bears. This should leave a likeliest scenario of 20-22 running back opportunities for Gallman in a matchup that yields an above average 4.31 net-adjusted line yards metric (the Bengals check in last in the league in adjusted line yards allowed at 4.93, allowing an obscene 5.24 running back yards per carry and the 29th most and 31st most second level yards and open field yards per touch to opposing backfields, respectively). Because of the “good-not-great” touch expectations for Gallman, his ceiling will be highly dependent on touchdown equity, but having scored five touchdowns in his four games as the lead back, the ceiling is tangible (all five touchdowns have come on rushes inside the five).

Through the air, we shouldn’t expect more than 33-35 pass attempts from Jones against an opponent that will be hard-pressed to force the Giants’ hand. Likeliest scenario lands all of Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Even Engram in the seven to eight target range, Golden Tate in the five to seven target range, with four to five targets for the running backs and two to three for the ancillary members of this pass-catching corps, meaning both floor and ceiling is a tough sell on that kind of volume for all the Giants’ pass-catchers.

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How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals will be starting former Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen, whose most recent NFL action came in three starts for the Broncos in 2019. Over those three games, Allen completed just 39 of 84 pass attempts (46.4%) with a healthy 7.7 intended air yards per pass attempt, a Dak-like 7.2 completed air yards per completion, but miniscule 3.3 completed air yards per pass attempt. What this tells me is the Broncos were using his big arm on deep throws (similar to how the Broncos are playing this year, with the highest intended air yards in the league), which is somewhat telling of how we should expect him to be utilized in Cincinnati. The major differences we should expect with the shift from incumbent/injured quarterback Joe Burrow to Allen are the completion rate (65.3% in 2020 for Burrow) and decision-making ability (defensive reads/progressions), likely leading to decreased drive success rates and increased turnovers moving forward. The hits to the expected drive success rate and overall efficiency of the Bengals’ offense keep coming with the news of Joe Mixon to the IR (and the late-update news, now, of Gio in the concussion protocol, as noted above), as this team should continue to be forced into a pass-heavy approach until he returns. In all, we have a likely pass-heavy offense with an inefficient quarterback, making the touchdown equity and fantasy prospectus for all skill position players on the Bengals offense a tough sell.

The backfield should continue to be roughly a 2:1 split in expected running back opportunities between Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine (again: note :: Perine should now lead this backfield), with the clear edge in pass game involvement landing with Gio. In the games the Bengals have been able to control without Mixon, Gio has landed in the 14-16 rush and four to seven target range, with Perine in the seven to nine rush and one to two target range. In games in which the Bengals are behind, overall rushing from the offense as a whole dips a solid 40% with little to no change in the receiving expectation for the running backs. The matchup on the ground yields a below average 4.095 net-adjusted line yards metric and it’s tough to envision clear paths to success for either of these running backs on a team whose overall touchdown expectations are hindered by the switch at quarterback.

From what we have seen over Allen’s short career, expect an ability (whether right or wrong is a different story) to throw into tight coverage and open up downfield. This demi-gunslinger mentality for Allen plays more into AJ Green’s (13.5 aDOT, 30.7% team air yards, 6’4” 210 pound frame and 4.48 40 with the lowest average separation at target in the NFL) and Tee Higgins’ (13.5 aDOT, 28.7% team air yards, 6’ 4” 215 pound frame) games as opposed to Tyler Boyd (8.2 aDOT, 21.2% team air yards, unofficial 4.54 40), and Allen has shown the propensity to home in on his top wide receiver (which points to an inability to progress through reads properly more than anything else). The Bengals continue to operate heavily out of 11-personnel (77% season average, 77% over the previous five games), so expect over 80% snap rates for all of the three primary wide receivers moving forward. Because of how these teams match up, we should expect a floor of 65 offensive plays run from scrimmage for the Bengals, with ceiling for 70+, and when paired with a likely heavy pass play rate, we should expect a floor of 40 pass attempts for Allen with ceiling for 45+. The efficiency is likely to be lacking, meaning we’re looking for splash play potential and/or volume for bankable floor and/or ceiling, but the looks should be there for this offense. Zac Taylor does a good job of mixing the sides of the field of his perimeter wide receivers (Green and Higgins) as well as the route trees of each, so the fantasy prospectus of these pass-catchers likely comes down to whether or not James Bradberry (51% completion rate allowed on 49 targets, with three touchdowns allowed in coverage as well as three interceptions; 6’ 1”, 212 pound frame with a slow 4.50 40) shadows either of them. Overall, there isn’t a clear picture as to who should emerge as Allen’s favorite target this weekend, so all members of this high expected volume passing game should be reserved for MME play.

Likeliest Game Flow ::

This game should be one of the most pass-heavy games on the week on the Bengals’ side of the ball, albeit with likely little translation to the scoreboard through poor overall efficiency. The Giants pass at the league’s 17th highest rate (59.61%) and remain without their first and second string running backs, while the Bengals pass at the league’s third highest rate (63.79%) and are without their starting running backs. The Giants rank 26th in the league in drive success rate at 70.9% while the Bengals were down at 22nd in the league with Joe Burrow at quarterback; we’re likely to see a drop in their 72.3% drive success rate moving forward with Allen at quarterback. In all, this should translate to high pass rates for the Bengals and lower-than-season-average pass rates for the Giants, with stalled drives and low time of possession per drive the norm here; it is unlikely the Bengals jump out to a large lead based on remaining offensive personnel and it is unlikely the Giants jump out to a large lead based on offensive philosophies. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::


Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
28.25) at

Falcons (
24.75)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
31st DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
29th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
22nd DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
17th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
6th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
25th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
17th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
9th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Las Vegas likes to try to win on the ground, and it takes a meteor of a game script for them to shift out of this approachAtlanta has also been more run-leaning under Raheem Morris than most probably realizeThis game carries one of the highest Over/Unders on the slate, but there are certainly some traps in this oneWith that said: there is also a very interesting Tributary; and there are (obviously) a few pieces that can be considered outside of this Tributary build

How Las Vegas Will Try To Win ::

Since the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Chargers (
23.75) at

Bills (
27.75)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
31st DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
22nd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
8th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
18th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Both of these teams are willing to win games through the air (though we would prefer for Buffalo to be playing from in front, as this would increase the likelihood of this game reaching its potential)Buffalo, as it turns out, has a good chance of playing from in frontThere are some obvious ways to build around this gameAs a benefit to us: it's not as certain as the field will assume that the "obvious ways to build around this game" are "the best ways to build around this game"

How Buffalo Will . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 4:05pm Eastern

49ers (
19.75) at

Rams (
24.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
7th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
4th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
8th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
20th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
3rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
14th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
4th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
22nd DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Both teams are likely to tilt run-balanced for as long as the game remains within one score, against two of the top five rush defenses in the league and two of the top seven overall defenses in yards allowed per gameExpect the Rams to play with tempo while the Niners look to slow the game downInjury uncertainty aplenty for the Niners, with Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle out and all of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk still questionableLikeliest scenario is a low volume, highly concentrated offense from . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 4:05pm Eastern

Saints (
26.5) at

Broncos (
9.5)

Over/Under 36.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
3rd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
25th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
1st DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
11th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
12th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Denver should struggle to move the ball against a tough defense, paving the way for New Orleans to lean run-heavy once moreThe fantasy prospectus of the main Saints players takes a significant hit with Taysom Hill at quarterbackExpect Sean Payton to continue to try and “win dirty” for as long as Drew Brees remains out of the lineup, as the Saints continue their bid for the top overall playoff spot out of the NFC and a first round byeNot many clear paths to fantasy goodness from either side in a game with one . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 4:25pm Eastern

Chiefs (
29.5) at

Bucs (
26.5)

Over/Under 56.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
29th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
10th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
5th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
1st DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
10th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
5th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Chiefs prefer to pass (because: Mahomes), and teams prefer to pass against the BucsThe Bucs, on the other hand, are likelier to tilt a bit more run-leaning in the early going; but they may not be able to go with that approach for longThe Chiefs set up better than the Bucs in this gameThis is a key game on the slate; there are likely to be plenty of pieces that will draw ownership, and there are plenty of pieces that could go off; but understanding how this game sets up in terms . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 29th 8:20pm Eastern

Bears (
18) at

Packers (
26)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
5th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
19th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
25th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
14th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/10th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Sunday night football brings us a less-than-exciting matchup as the Bears visit the Packers (why does it feel like we’ve had so many Bears island game showdowns? Jeez). This game has a total of 44.5 with Green Bay favored by nine; which means the Bears are projected for just about 18 points.  It looks like Mitch Trubisky will be taking the reins at QB this week with Nick Foles out, but given how the Bears have treated Trubisky this year (benching him for Foles even when he hadn’t been playing THAT . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 30th 8:15pm Eastern

Hawks (
28) at

Eagles (
21.5)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
7th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
16th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
20th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
27th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
12th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
9th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
26th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 12 comes to a close with the Seahawks visiting the Eagles. We have a 48.5 total with Seattle favored by 6.5, and we have some quarterback controversy in Philadelphia. Carson Wentz has been pretty freaking awful this year (despite averaging almost 20 Draftkings points per game, largely driven by rushing, as he’s thrown as many picks as he has touchdowns this season as a passer), and the Eagles have been giving Jalen Hurts some first-team reps in practice. The talk is that they’ll give him more than the occasional gadget . . .

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