XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We get our first NFL game in Germany as the Seahawks and Bucs travel over there for a 44.5 total game with Tampa favored by about a field goal. This is a super interesting matchup that pits a Seahawks team that has overachieved compared to preseason expectations, against a Tampa team that has done the exact opposite, as they are barely hanging on to first place with a 4-5 record due to their great defense and a weak division.
On the Bucs side, we have Leonard Fournette as the lead back, though his role has started to erode a bit as Rachaad White gains steam throughout the season. Fournette is the guy Brady trusts and he’s a good pass blocker and receiver, which in an extremely high passing volume offense like Tampa’s is critical. But, he’s also run for just 3.3 yards per carry this year, as he is both old and slow and has a terrible run-blocking offensive line (Tampa’s O line is 29th in adjusted line yards, yikes). Seattle’s defense started the year looking like a dumpster fire that we wanted to attack in DFS but has somewhat quietly crept up to be ranked 12th in overall DVOA which is impressive after the slow start. I think we have to remove “bell cow” from Fournette’s description because he’s seen 20+ running back opportunities in just four of nine games and is trending in the wrong direction (under 10 carries in the last three). His goal-line and passing game roles keep him alive for DFS, though, and his price has adjusted from a high of $11,600 all the way down to $7,800, which feels reasonable for his role. White’s role has been growing, and though he hasn’t exactly seized the opportunity with elite performance, the rookie certainly has more long-term upside for Tampa. He’s also proven a capable receiver, and while he’s a bit overpriced for his likeliest outcome at $5,000, you can bet that the role shifts more in his favor or that he finds his way into the end zone. I think those are reasonable bets to make and I want to be overweight on what I expect to be fairly modest ownership given his price.
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, I expect Mike Evans to play, Cam Brate to return, and Russell Gage to miss. That would give us Evans and Chris Godwin playing almost every snap, while some combination of Scotty Miller, Julio Jones, and Breshad Perriman fill in the rest of the wide receiver snaps, while Brate and rookie Cade Otton (who has been pretty darn impressive) should have some kind of split at tight end. While Evans and Godwin have historically been ranked right next to each other (and generally priced very closely in Showdowns), they’ve diverged this week, with Evans the most expensive player on the slate and Godwin down in value-town at $7,200. Why? Well, while Godwin’s volume is still robust (10+ targets in every full game he’s played except one), he’s seeing targets closer to the line of scrimmage and also managing less YAC than he has in prior seasons. It’s a fair bet that Godwin will see more targets than Evans, and while Godwin led the team in red zone work last year, it’s flipped this year with 15 red zone targets for Evans and just seven for Godwin. Emotionally, I want to latch onto Godwin at the much cheaper price – and he’s a good play – but I think the two of them are pretty fairly priced here given how their roles have diverged this season. Behind them, the trio of WR3s have vastly different prices, with Julio all the way up at $6,200, Miller at $4,800 coming off of last week’s solid game, and Perriman lingers down at $1,000. Perriman’s snaps have been the least consistent of this group, and while Julio isn’t playing a ton, he’s well-utilized when on the field. I really like Perriman as a tourney dart throw and value option, while Julio and Scotty need to be included in player pools just based on how many times Brady throws per game, but none of these can be classified as a safe play. Tight end is the most uncertain spot for the Bucs, as Otton has performed extremely well this year and Brate was only slightly out snapping him earlier in the season when both were healthy. I think Otton is the lead guy here but Brate’s return should bring down his snaps from the 81% – 94% range he’s been in without Brate. At his highest Showdown price of the season, and with the prospect of losing at least some amount of field time, Otton should be viewed as a higher-risk tourney option . . . though in a matchup that very much favors tight ends, he is still viable and fortunately, his price didn’t go up much after last week’s big game. Brate is another interesting value option at $1,200 given the elite matchup and his strong red zone role (he has 5 red zone targets on the year despite only playing 194 snaps – on a per-snap basis, that would give him the most red zone targets on the team of anyone besides Evans). Ko Kieft could be included in MME player pools, I suppose, though his role is likely to mostly disappear with Brate back.
(WEEK PASS ONLY $19)